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Web 2.0 Weekly
“Fluid Music – Muzak’s Younger, Hipper Sibling”
                                                                                                                                                       May 11, 2010

                                                                                                                            David Shore, CFA, MBA 416.860.6784
                                                                                                                                  dshore@mackieresearch.com
                                                                                                                                Damian Wojcichowsky, CFA 416.860.7652

   This report has been created by Analysts that are employed by Mackie Research Capital Corporation, a Canadian Investment Dealer. For further disclosures, please see last page of this report.
                                                                                  www.mackieresearch.com


 Copyright © 2000-2010, Mackie Research Capital Corporation, All rights reserved                                                                             www.mackieresearch.com
Key Developments (past week)
    Deals (M&A, Finance) – Group Deals and Muzak’s Younger, Hipper Sibling
     Fluid Music (TSX:FMN, digital music distributor) will acquire Mood Media (provider of
     sensorial marketing solutions) for €160 mm.
     Lithium is purchasing analytics developer, Scout Labs, for $20 mm.
     Fatfoogoo (purveyor of virtual goods) is being acquired by Digital River for $10 mm.
     Groupalia, the Spanish answer to online group discount retailers, Groupon and
     LivingSocial, raised $2.5 mm in a Series A financing – the online group discounters
     have been raising money quickly (DST invested $135 mm in Groupon in April) with a
     total of $222 mm in funding coming to just these three players thus far.

    Financial Results/Guidance
     RealNetworks (Internet veteran from the Web 1.0 era) reported Q1/F10 revenue of
     $128.6 mm (-9% Y/Y) and EPS of $0.05 (vs. $0.10 in Q1/F09). In terms of outlook,
     management expects Q2 revenue to decline Y/Y and Q/Q and EBITDA to be negative –
     though Q2 is expected to be the low point in financial performance for F2010.




2                                                                            www.mackieresearch.com
Public Company Data




3                         www.mackieresearch.com
Aggregate Public Data

     Web 2.0 Public Companies   Total      Median    Max           Min
    # Companies                    99          -         -           -
    Market Cap (US$ mm)         78,963.9     72.1   36,243.7        1.0
    Revenue (US$ mm)            22,467.7     60.2    3,057.7        0.0
    1 Year revenue growth                   3.5%    857.0%       -91.4%
    EBITDA as % of revenue         -        13.4%    67.7%       -75.0%
    Net cash (US$ mm)           8,591.6      1.8     1,754.4      -670.8
    TEV/Revenue                    -         1.7x     46.4x        0.0x
    TEV/EBITDA                     -         8.5x     42.6x        0.0x
    P/E                            -        16.4x     93.4x        0.0x
    Relative to 52 week high               -36.7%     -3.8%      -97.2%




     Source: CapitalIQ




4                                                          www.mackieresearch.com
5
                                                                      0
                                                                                      5
                                                                                                        10
                                                                                                                       15
                                                                                                                                   20
                                                                                                                                             25
                                                                                                                                                            30
                                                          Gaming




                                                                                                                                                       27
                                                Social Networking




                                                                                                                             16
                                                            Media




                                                                                                             10


                                                                                                   7
                                                        Diversified




                                                                                               6
                                                        Marketing




                                                                                           5
                                                           Mobile




                         Source: CapitalIQ
                                                                                  3
                                                     Infrastructure




                                                                                  3
                                                      SMS/Voice




                                                                                  3
                                                       Enterprise




                                                                                  3
                                                       Advertising




                                                                              2
                                                    Internet Retail




                                                                              2
                                                     Virtual World
                                                                                                                                                                 By Sector




                                                                              2
                                                            Dating




                                                                              2
                                                            Music




                                                                          1
                                             Vertical Communities




                                                                          1
                                                     Collaboration




                                                                          1
                                                      Podcasting




                                                                          1
                                                         Learning




                                                                          1
                                                              Video




                                                                          1
                                                           Search




                                                                          1
                                                         Payment


                                                                          1
                                                Financial Services
                                                                                                                                                                              Public Company Distribution




                                                                0
                                                                          5
                                                                                      10
                                                                                                   15
                                                                                                                  20
                                                                                                                        25
                                                                                                                                  30
                                                                                                                                        35
                                                                                                                                                  40
                                                                                                                                                            45




                                              United States


                                                    Canada


                                                      China


                                                South Korea


                                                      Japan


                                                     Taiwan


                                                   Germany


                                                   Australia


                                             United Kingdom


                                                 Hong Kong


                                                     Poland


                                                     Russia
                                                                                                                                                                 By Country




                                                     Finland


                                                    Sweden


                                                   Malaysia


                                                       India


                                                        Italy


                                                Switzerland


                                                      Israel
www.mackieresearch.com
Valuation Dashboard – 1 Week
                    Market Cap                          EV/Revenue
                                                        Flat
                            Flat
                            10%                         4%
                                                                         Rising
                                                                          30%
                                     Rising
                                      17%




         Falling
          73%                                 Falling
                                               66%

                    EV/EBITDA                                  P/E

                    Flat                                 Flat
                    4%                                   3%
                                   Rising
                                    26%                                    Rising
                                                                            32%




                                              Falling
          Falling                              65%
           70%
6                                                                    www.mackieresearch.com
7
                         Source: CapitalIQ
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Multiple (x)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                   0.0x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          0.5x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 1.0x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1.5x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2.0x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2.5x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     3.0x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            3.5x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   4.0x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              4.5x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         5.0x




                                                                 # companies
                                                                                                                                                                                                       3/23/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                       3/30/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                        4/6/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                       4/13/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                       4/20/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                       4/27/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                        5/4/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                       5/11/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                       5/18/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                       5/25/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                        6/1/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                        6/8/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                       6/15/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                       6/22/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                       6/29/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                        7/6/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Median EV/Revenue




                                                                                                                                                                                                       7/13/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                       7/20/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                       7/27/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                        8/3/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                       8/10/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                       8/17/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                       8/24/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                       8/31/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                        9/7/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                       9/14/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                       9/21/2009




                                             Median
                                                                                                                                                                                                       9/28/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                       10/5/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                      10/12/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                      10/19/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                      10/26/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                       11/2/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                       11/9/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                      11/16/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                      11/23/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                      11/30/2009




                                             Long-term average
                                                                                                                                                                                                       12/7/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                      12/14/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                      12/21/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                      12/28/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                        1/4/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                       1/11/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                       1/18/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                       1/25/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                        2/1/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                        2/8/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                       2/15/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                       2/22/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           recovering, but




                                                                                                                                                                                                        3/1/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          below LT Average
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Revenue multiples




                                                                                                                                                                                                        3/8/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                       3/15/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                       3/22/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                       3/29/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                        4/5/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                       4/12/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                       4/19/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                       4/26/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                        5/3/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                       5/10/2010
                                                                           373737383939393939414344444545454648494949485154545858586163636461636367676867706667657072687372767477777777777980818181




www.mackieresearch.com
8
                         Source: CapitalIQ
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Multiple (x)




                                                                 # companies
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         0.0x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                5.0x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       10.0x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   15.0x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              20.0x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      25.0x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               30.0x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             3/23/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             3/30/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              4/6/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             4/13/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             4/20/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             4/27/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              5/4/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             5/11/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             5/18/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             5/25/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              6/1/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              6/8/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             6/15/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             6/22/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Median EV/EBITDA




                                                                                                                                                                                                                             6/29/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              7/6/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             7/13/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             7/20/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             7/27/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              8/3/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             8/10/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             8/17/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             8/24/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             8/31/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              9/7/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             9/14/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             9/21/2009




                                             Median
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             9/28/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             10/5/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            10/12/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            10/19/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            10/26/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             11/2/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             11/9/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            11/16/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            11/23/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            11/30/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             12/7/2009



                                             Long-term average
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            12/14/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            12/21/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            12/28/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              1/4/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1/11/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1/18/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1/25/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2/1/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2/8/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2/15/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               below LT average
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               remain depressed




                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2/22/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              3/1/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              EV/EBITDA multiples




                                                                                                                                                                                                                              3/8/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             3/15/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             3/22/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             3/29/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              4/5/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             4/12/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             4/19/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             4/26/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              5/3/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             5/10/2010
                                                                 2020 2122 23 2322 2223 2423 2523 2426 26 2727 2625 2526 2830 29 3232 3436 3937 3737 3939 41 3737 3941 4039 4041 42 4242 4343 4347 4848 5051 51 4951 4847




www.mackieresearch.com
9
                         Source: CapitalIQ
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Multiple (x)




                                                                                                                                                                  # companies
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         0.0x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                5.0x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       10.0x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   15.0x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              20.0x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      25.0x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             30.0x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             3/23/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             3/30/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              4/6/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Median P/E

                                                                                                                                                                                                                             4/13/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             4/20/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             4/27/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              5/4/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             5/11/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             5/18/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             5/25/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              6/1/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              6/8/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             6/15/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             6/22/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             6/29/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              7/6/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             7/13/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             7/20/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             7/27/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              8/3/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             8/10/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             8/17/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             8/24/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             8/31/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              9/7/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             9/14/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             9/21/2009




                                             Median
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             9/28/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             10/5/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            10/12/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            10/19/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            10/26/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             11/2/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             11/9/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            11/16/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            11/23/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            11/30/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             12/7/2009



                                             Long-term average
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            12/14/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            12/21/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            12/28/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              1/4/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1/11/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1/18/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1/25/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2/1/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2/8/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2/15/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2/22/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              below LT average




                                                                                                                                                                                                                              3/1/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              P/E multiples also




                                                                                                                                                                                                                              3/8/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             3/15/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             3/22/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             3/29/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              4/5/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             4/12/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             4/19/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             4/26/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              5/3/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             5/10/2010
                                                                 1819 1918 18 1918 1919 2020 1818 1919 20 2124 2525 2425 2628 26 2929 3030 3231 3133 3537 36 3637 3738 3935 3737 38 3636 3331 3130 3333 3433 33 3232 3134




www.mackieresearch.com
10
                                                                     -
                                                                                     5.0
                                                                                                   10.0
                                                                                                                   15.0
                                                                                                                                 20.0
                                                                                                                                               25.0




                            # Companies 2
                                                    Infrastructure




                            2
                                                           Music




                            7
                                               Social Networking




                            1
                                                        Learning




                            5
                                                       Diversified




                            1
                                            Vertical Communities




                            3
                                                     SMS/Voice




                            6
                                                       Marketing




                            4
                                                          Mobile

                                                         Gaming




                            21
                            1
                                                          Search




                            1
                                                    Collaboration
                                                                                                                                                      EV/Revenue




                            9
                                                           Media




                            3
                                                      Advertising




                            1
                                                     Podcasting




                            1
                                                           Video




                            2
                                                   Internet Retail




                            3
                                                      Enterprise




                            2
                                                           Dating




                            1
                                               Financial Services




                            1
                                                    Virtual World


                                                                 -
                                                                         2.0
                                                                               4.0
                                                                                           6.0
                                                                                                 8.0
                                                                                                          10.0
                                                                                                                 12.0
                                                                                                                          14.0
                                                                                                                                 16.0
                                                                                                                                        18.0
                                                                                                                                               20.0
                                                                                                                                                                   Average Valuation – by Sector




                         # Companies
                            1
                                                       Mobile
                            2




                                                   Enterprise
                            5




                                                   Diversified
                            2




                                               Internet Retail
                            6




                                                       Media
                            1




                                                Collaboration




                                                     Gaming
                            14
                                                                                                                                                      EV/EBITDA




                            5




                                            Social Networking
                            3




                                                   Marketing
                            1




                                                       Dating
                            1




                                                  Advertising
www.mackieresearch.com
11
                                                                                     0.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       5.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                10.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    15.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   20.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               25.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      30.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             35.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    40.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 45.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        50.0




                                                                                           0.1
                                                                      Ngi Group Inc.
                                                                          Asknet AG
                                                                      Cyberplex Inc.
                                                                      GigaMedia Ltd.




                         Source: CapitalIQ
                                                    Jumbuck Entertainment Limited
                                                                  RealNetworks Inc.
                                                                Actoz Soft Co., Ltd.
                                                                      Tree.Com, Inc.
                                                  Uniserve Communications Corp.
                                                          Openwave Systems Inc.
                                                                      Glu Mobile, Inc.
                                                                    GameOn Co Ltd.
                                                                         DADA SpA
                                                   Northgate Technologies Limited
                                                                TheStreet.com, Inc.
                                                               IAC/InterActiveCorp.
                                                            Points International Ltd.
                                                                            AOL, Inc.
                                                                  Internet Group SA
                                                                           CDC Corp.
                                                                  United Online, Inc.




                                                                                           0.10.2 0.30.40.4 0.4 0.50.50.50.60.6 0.60.60.6 0.70.70.80.80.80.80.8
                                                   The New York Times Company
                                                                 AQ Interactive, Inc.
                                                          CornerWorld Corporation
                                                   OAO RBC Information Systems
                                                                     HanbitSoft, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               EV/Revenue Ranking




                                                                    infoGROUP, Inc.
                                                          NetDragon WebSoft, Inc.
                                             Gamania Digital Entertainment Co., Ltd.
                                              Hutchison Telecommunications Hong
                                                              SNAP Interactive, Inc.
                                                              Spark Networks, Inc.
                                                                    YD Online Corp.
                                                                     ValueClick, Inc.
                                                                      Ynk Korea Inc.
                                                     Oriented Media Group Berhad
                                                                                                                                                               0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7




                                                                      Shutterfly, Inc.
                                                                    Score Media Inc.
                                                              NeuLion Incorporated
                                                      Modern Times Group Mtg AB
                                                                            XING AG
                                                                             Velti Plc
                                                               PNI Digital Media Inc.
                                                                      Sohu.com Inc.
                                                   Wizzard Software Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           1.9 2.0 2.12.22.22.2 2.3 2.4 2.5




                                                GungHo Online Entertainment, Inc.
                                                                        Webzen Inc.
                                                                    Open Text Corp.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2.82.82.9




                                                                   Myriad Group AG
                                                  Frogster Interactive Pictures AG
                                                                      iseemedia Inc.
                                                                   UOMO Media, Inc
                                                      NEOWIZ Games Corporation
                                                                         Taleo Corp.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   3.0 3.1 3.13.3 3.53.6




                                                      SK Communications Co., Ltd.
                                                             Changyou.com Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            revenue multiple at 46.4x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           SpectrumDNA has highest




                                                         DigitalPost Interactive, Inc.
                                                          HUGHES Telematics, Inc.
                                                      Kingsoft Corporation Limited
                                                              WebMediaBrands Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       4.6 4.74.94.9 5.0 5.2




                                                          Lingo Media Corporation
                                                                             Mixi, Inc.
                                                       Accelerize New Media, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              5.4 5.6 5.6




                                                                Unilava Corporation
                                                                           Gree, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               7.9 8.3




                                                                  TransGaming, Inc.
                                                          Fluid Music Canada, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         11.1




                                                      Chinese Gamer International
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             11.811.8




                                                                     GeoSentric Oyj
                                                           Beyond Commerce, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        13.8




                                                                 MOKO.mobi Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            15.5




                                                                             Paid Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     19.2




                                                              Tencent Holdings Ltd.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            21.8




                                                                    Bright Things plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      27.8




                                                                 SpectrumDNA, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              46.4




www.mackieresearch.com
12
                                                                                                           0.0
                                                                                                                         5.0
                                                                                                                                                               10.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                             15.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     20.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  25.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               30.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      35.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     40.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       45.0
                                                                        Jumbuck Entertainment Limited

                                                                                        Cyberplex Inc.




                                                                                                                 0.8 1.9




                         Source: CapitalIQ
                                                                                   Actoz Soft Co., Ltd.

                                                                                             AOL, Inc.

                                                                                      GameOn Co Ltd.




                                                                                                                         2.3 2.4 2.5
                                                                                     United Online, Inc.




                                                                                                                                  4.2
                                                                        The New York Times Company
                                                                                       ValueClick, Inc.

                                                                                       Sohu.com Inc.
                                                      Hutchison Telecommunications Hong Kong Holdings




                                                                                                                                       5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6
                                                                          Ltd.
                                                                                          DADA SpA

                                                                                      infoGROUP, Inc.
                                                                              NetDragon WebSoft, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              EV/EBITDA Ranking




                                                                                  Spark Networks, Inc.
                                                                                      YD Online Corp.
                                                                                                                                                       6.0 6.7 6.9 6.9 7.0



                                                                                            CDC Corp.
                                                                                Changyou.com Limited

                                                                 Gamania Digital Entertainment Co., Ltd.

                                                                                              XING AG
                                                                                                                                                                           7.1 7.4 7.9 8.0




                                                                                  IAC/InterActiveCorp.

                                                                                  PNI Digital Media Inc.
                                                                       Uniserve Communications Corp.
                                                                                                                                                                                           8.5 9.0 9.1




                                                                     GungHo Online Entertainment, Inc.

                                                                                      Open Text Corp.
                                                                                               Velti Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                            10.2 10.3 10.7




                                                                           Kingsoft Corporation Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    at 42.6x




                                                                          NEOWIZ Games Corporation

                                                                                      Score Media Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                         11.7 12.312.4




                                                                                        Shutterfly, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Tencent leads the group




                                                                                             Gree, Inc.

                                                                                       HanbitSoft, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              12.9 13.8 13.8




                                                                          Modern Times Group Mtg AB

                                                                                        Ynk Korea Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         15.0 15.0




                                                                                              Mixi, Inc.

                                                                       Frogster Interactive Pictures AG
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     17.7 18.5




                                                                              Openwave Systems Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        18.9




                                                                                   TheStreet.com, Inc.

                                                                           Chinese Gamer International
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 22.3 23.1




                                                                                           Taleo Corp.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             26.3




                                                                                 Tencent Holdings Ltd.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       42.6




www.mackieresearch.com
                         Excluding EV/EBITDA > 100x
Fluid Music Acquires Mood Media in Digital Music Distribution Deal
Fluid Music Acquires Mood Media in Digital Music Distribution Deal
Fluid Music Acquires Mood Media in Digital Music Distribution Deal
Fluid Music Acquires Mood Media in Digital Music Distribution Deal
Fluid Music Acquires Mood Media in Digital Music Distribution Deal
Fluid Music Acquires Mood Media in Digital Music Distribution Deal
Fluid Music Acquires Mood Media in Digital Music Distribution Deal
Fluid Music Acquires Mood Media in Digital Music Distribution Deal
Fluid Music Acquires Mood Media in Digital Music Distribution Deal
Fluid Music Acquires Mood Media in Digital Music Distribution Deal
Fluid Music Acquires Mood Media in Digital Music Distribution Deal
Fluid Music Acquires Mood Media in Digital Music Distribution Deal
Fluid Music Acquires Mood Media in Digital Music Distribution Deal
Fluid Music Acquires Mood Media in Digital Music Distribution Deal
Fluid Music Acquires Mood Media in Digital Music Distribution Deal
Fluid Music Acquires Mood Media in Digital Music Distribution Deal
Fluid Music Acquires Mood Media in Digital Music Distribution Deal
Fluid Music Acquires Mood Media in Digital Music Distribution Deal
Fluid Music Acquires Mood Media in Digital Music Distribution Deal
Fluid Music Acquires Mood Media in Digital Music Distribution Deal

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Fluid Music Acquires Mood Media in Digital Music Distribution Deal

  • 1. Web 2.0 Weekly “Fluid Music – Muzak’s Younger, Hipper Sibling” May 11, 2010 David Shore, CFA, MBA 416.860.6784 dshore@mackieresearch.com Damian Wojcichowsky, CFA 416.860.7652 This report has been created by Analysts that are employed by Mackie Research Capital Corporation, a Canadian Investment Dealer. For further disclosures, please see last page of this report. www.mackieresearch.com Copyright © 2000-2010, Mackie Research Capital Corporation, All rights reserved www.mackieresearch.com
  • 2. Key Developments (past week) Deals (M&A, Finance) – Group Deals and Muzak’s Younger, Hipper Sibling Fluid Music (TSX:FMN, digital music distributor) will acquire Mood Media (provider of sensorial marketing solutions) for €160 mm. Lithium is purchasing analytics developer, Scout Labs, for $20 mm. Fatfoogoo (purveyor of virtual goods) is being acquired by Digital River for $10 mm. Groupalia, the Spanish answer to online group discount retailers, Groupon and LivingSocial, raised $2.5 mm in a Series A financing – the online group discounters have been raising money quickly (DST invested $135 mm in Groupon in April) with a total of $222 mm in funding coming to just these three players thus far. Financial Results/Guidance RealNetworks (Internet veteran from the Web 1.0 era) reported Q1/F10 revenue of $128.6 mm (-9% Y/Y) and EPS of $0.05 (vs. $0.10 in Q1/F09). In terms of outlook, management expects Q2 revenue to decline Y/Y and Q/Q and EBITDA to be negative – though Q2 is expected to be the low point in financial performance for F2010. 2 www.mackieresearch.com
  • 3. Public Company Data 3 www.mackieresearch.com
  • 4. Aggregate Public Data Web 2.0 Public Companies Total Median Max Min # Companies 99 - - - Market Cap (US$ mm) 78,963.9 72.1 36,243.7 1.0 Revenue (US$ mm) 22,467.7 60.2 3,057.7 0.0 1 Year revenue growth 3.5% 857.0% -91.4% EBITDA as % of revenue - 13.4% 67.7% -75.0% Net cash (US$ mm) 8,591.6 1.8 1,754.4 -670.8 TEV/Revenue - 1.7x 46.4x 0.0x TEV/EBITDA - 8.5x 42.6x 0.0x P/E - 16.4x 93.4x 0.0x Relative to 52 week high -36.7% -3.8% -97.2% Source: CapitalIQ 4 www.mackieresearch.com
  • 5. 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Gaming 27 Social Networking 16 Media 10 7 Diversified 6 Marketing 5 Mobile Source: CapitalIQ 3 Infrastructure 3 SMS/Voice 3 Enterprise 3 Advertising 2 Internet Retail 2 Virtual World By Sector 2 Dating 2 Music 1 Vertical Communities 1 Collaboration 1 Podcasting 1 Learning 1 Video 1 Search 1 Payment 1 Financial Services Public Company Distribution 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 United States Canada China South Korea Japan Taiwan Germany Australia United Kingdom Hong Kong Poland Russia By Country Finland Sweden Malaysia India Italy Switzerland Israel www.mackieresearch.com
  • 6. Valuation Dashboard – 1 Week Market Cap EV/Revenue Flat Flat 10% 4% Rising 30% Rising 17% Falling 73% Falling 66% EV/EBITDA P/E Flat Flat 4% 3% Rising 26% Rising 32% Falling Falling 65% 70% 6 www.mackieresearch.com
  • 7. 7 Source: CapitalIQ Multiple (x) 0.0x 0.5x 1.0x 1.5x 2.0x 2.5x 3.0x 3.5x 4.0x 4.5x 5.0x # companies 3/23/2009 3/30/2009 4/6/2009 4/13/2009 4/20/2009 4/27/2009 5/4/2009 5/11/2009 5/18/2009 5/25/2009 6/1/2009 6/8/2009 6/15/2009 6/22/2009 6/29/2009 7/6/2009 Median EV/Revenue 7/13/2009 7/20/2009 7/27/2009 8/3/2009 8/10/2009 8/17/2009 8/24/2009 8/31/2009 9/7/2009 9/14/2009 9/21/2009 Median 9/28/2009 10/5/2009 10/12/2009 10/19/2009 10/26/2009 11/2/2009 11/9/2009 11/16/2009 11/23/2009 11/30/2009 Long-term average 12/7/2009 12/14/2009 12/21/2009 12/28/2009 1/4/2010 1/11/2010 1/18/2010 1/25/2010 2/1/2010 2/8/2010 2/15/2010 2/22/2010 recovering, but 3/1/2010 below LT Average Revenue multiples 3/8/2010 3/15/2010 3/22/2010 3/29/2010 4/5/2010 4/12/2010 4/19/2010 4/26/2010 5/3/2010 5/10/2010 373737383939393939414344444545454648494949485154545858586163636461636367676867706667657072687372767477777777777980818181 www.mackieresearch.com
  • 8. 8 Source: CapitalIQ Multiple (x) # companies 0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 25.0x 30.0x 3/23/2009 3/30/2009 4/6/2009 4/13/2009 4/20/2009 4/27/2009 5/4/2009 5/11/2009 5/18/2009 5/25/2009 6/1/2009 6/8/2009 6/15/2009 6/22/2009 Median EV/EBITDA 6/29/2009 7/6/2009 7/13/2009 7/20/2009 7/27/2009 8/3/2009 8/10/2009 8/17/2009 8/24/2009 8/31/2009 9/7/2009 9/14/2009 9/21/2009 Median 9/28/2009 10/5/2009 10/12/2009 10/19/2009 10/26/2009 11/2/2009 11/9/2009 11/16/2009 11/23/2009 11/30/2009 12/7/2009 Long-term average 12/14/2009 12/21/2009 12/28/2009 1/4/2010 1/11/2010 1/18/2010 1/25/2010 2/1/2010 2/8/2010 2/15/2010 below LT average remain depressed 2/22/2010 3/1/2010 EV/EBITDA multiples 3/8/2010 3/15/2010 3/22/2010 3/29/2010 4/5/2010 4/12/2010 4/19/2010 4/26/2010 5/3/2010 5/10/2010 2020 2122 23 2322 2223 2423 2523 2426 26 2727 2625 2526 2830 29 3232 3436 3937 3737 3939 41 3737 3941 4039 4041 42 4242 4343 4347 4848 5051 51 4951 4847 www.mackieresearch.com
  • 9. 9 Source: CapitalIQ Multiple (x) # companies 0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 25.0x 30.0x 3/23/2009 3/30/2009 4/6/2009 Median P/E 4/13/2009 4/20/2009 4/27/2009 5/4/2009 5/11/2009 5/18/2009 5/25/2009 6/1/2009 6/8/2009 6/15/2009 6/22/2009 6/29/2009 7/6/2009 7/13/2009 7/20/2009 7/27/2009 8/3/2009 8/10/2009 8/17/2009 8/24/2009 8/31/2009 9/7/2009 9/14/2009 9/21/2009 Median 9/28/2009 10/5/2009 10/12/2009 10/19/2009 10/26/2009 11/2/2009 11/9/2009 11/16/2009 11/23/2009 11/30/2009 12/7/2009 Long-term average 12/14/2009 12/21/2009 12/28/2009 1/4/2010 1/11/2010 1/18/2010 1/25/2010 2/1/2010 2/8/2010 2/15/2010 2/22/2010 below LT average 3/1/2010 P/E multiples also 3/8/2010 3/15/2010 3/22/2010 3/29/2010 4/5/2010 4/12/2010 4/19/2010 4/26/2010 5/3/2010 5/10/2010 1819 1918 18 1918 1919 2020 1818 1919 20 2124 2525 2425 2628 26 2929 3030 3231 3133 3537 36 3637 3738 3935 3737 38 3636 3331 3130 3333 3433 33 3232 3134 www.mackieresearch.com
  • 10. 10 - 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 # Companies 2 Infrastructure 2 Music 7 Social Networking 1 Learning 5 Diversified 1 Vertical Communities 3 SMS/Voice 6 Marketing 4 Mobile Gaming 21 1 Search 1 Collaboration EV/Revenue 9 Media 3 Advertising 1 Podcasting 1 Video 2 Internet Retail 3 Enterprise 2 Dating 1 Financial Services 1 Virtual World - 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 Average Valuation – by Sector # Companies 1 Mobile 2 Enterprise 5 Diversified 2 Internet Retail 6 Media 1 Collaboration Gaming 14 EV/EBITDA 5 Social Networking 3 Marketing 1 Dating 1 Advertising www.mackieresearch.com
  • 11. 11 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 0.1 Ngi Group Inc. Asknet AG Cyberplex Inc. GigaMedia Ltd. Source: CapitalIQ Jumbuck Entertainment Limited RealNetworks Inc. Actoz Soft Co., Ltd. Tree.Com, Inc. Uniserve Communications Corp. Openwave Systems Inc. Glu Mobile, Inc. GameOn Co Ltd. DADA SpA Northgate Technologies Limited TheStreet.com, Inc. IAC/InterActiveCorp. Points International Ltd. AOL, Inc. Internet Group SA CDC Corp. United Online, Inc. 0.10.2 0.30.40.4 0.4 0.50.50.50.60.6 0.60.60.6 0.70.70.80.80.80.80.8 The New York Times Company AQ Interactive, Inc. CornerWorld Corporation OAO RBC Information Systems HanbitSoft, Inc. EV/Revenue Ranking infoGROUP, Inc. NetDragon WebSoft, Inc. Gamania Digital Entertainment Co., Ltd. Hutchison Telecommunications Hong SNAP Interactive, Inc. Spark Networks, Inc. YD Online Corp. ValueClick, Inc. Ynk Korea Inc. Oriented Media Group Berhad 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 Shutterfly, Inc. Score Media Inc. NeuLion Incorporated Modern Times Group Mtg AB XING AG Velti Plc PNI Digital Media Inc. Sohu.com Inc. Wizzard Software Corporation 1.9 2.0 2.12.22.22.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 GungHo Online Entertainment, Inc. Webzen Inc. Open Text Corp. 2.82.82.9 Myriad Group AG Frogster Interactive Pictures AG iseemedia Inc. UOMO Media, Inc NEOWIZ Games Corporation Taleo Corp. 3.0 3.1 3.13.3 3.53.6 SK Communications Co., Ltd. Changyou.com Limited revenue multiple at 46.4x SpectrumDNA has highest DigitalPost Interactive, Inc. HUGHES Telematics, Inc. Kingsoft Corporation Limited WebMediaBrands Inc 4.6 4.74.94.9 5.0 5.2 Lingo Media Corporation Mixi, Inc. Accelerize New Media, Inc. 5.4 5.6 5.6 Unilava Corporation Gree, Inc. 7.9 8.3 TransGaming, Inc. Fluid Music Canada, Inc. 11.1 Chinese Gamer International 11.811.8 GeoSentric Oyj Beyond Commerce, Inc. 13.8 MOKO.mobi Limited 15.5 Paid Inc. 19.2 Tencent Holdings Ltd. 21.8 Bright Things plc 27.8 SpectrumDNA, Inc. 46.4 www.mackieresearch.com
  • 12. 12 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 Jumbuck Entertainment Limited Cyberplex Inc. 0.8 1.9 Source: CapitalIQ Actoz Soft Co., Ltd. AOL, Inc. GameOn Co Ltd. 2.3 2.4 2.5 United Online, Inc. 4.2 The New York Times Company ValueClick, Inc. Sohu.com Inc. Hutchison Telecommunications Hong Kong Holdings 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 Ltd. DADA SpA infoGROUP, Inc. NetDragon WebSoft, Inc. EV/EBITDA Ranking Spark Networks, Inc. YD Online Corp. 6.0 6.7 6.9 6.9 7.0 CDC Corp. Changyou.com Limited Gamania Digital Entertainment Co., Ltd. XING AG 7.1 7.4 7.9 8.0 IAC/InterActiveCorp. PNI Digital Media Inc. Uniserve Communications Corp. 8.5 9.0 9.1 GungHo Online Entertainment, Inc. Open Text Corp. Velti Plc 10.2 10.3 10.7 Kingsoft Corporation Limited at 42.6x NEOWIZ Games Corporation Score Media Inc. 11.7 12.312.4 Shutterfly, Inc. Tencent leads the group Gree, Inc. HanbitSoft, Inc. 12.9 13.8 13.8 Modern Times Group Mtg AB Ynk Korea Inc. 15.0 15.0 Mixi, Inc. Frogster Interactive Pictures AG 17.7 18.5 Openwave Systems Inc. 18.9 TheStreet.com, Inc. Chinese Gamer International 22.3 23.1 Taleo Corp. 26.3 Tencent Holdings Ltd. 42.6 www.mackieresearch.com Excluding EV/EBITDA > 100x