The presentation describes ThinkVine's digital media strategy.

1. A
Breakthrough
Approach
to
Marke0ng
Mix
Op0misa0on
in
Today’s
Consumer-­‐driven
World
4
October
2012
©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.

2. The
Marketplace
is
Changing
Rapidly
More
More
diversity
fragmented
among
media
consumers
consump0on
More
More
marke0ng
ways
op0ons
to
buy
©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.

3. The
Demand
for
Marke0ng
Accountability
is
Rapidly
Increasing
“Corporate
marke,ng
is
the
last
bas,on
of
unaccountable
spending.”
-­‐
Google
Chairman
Eric
Schmidt
©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
3

4. The
Changes
are
Crea0ng
New
Challenges
for
Marketers
What
size
How
do
we
budget
do
best
allocate
we
need?
the
budget?
How
do
we
What
are
the
efficiently
short-­‐
and
…
reach
target
long-­‐term
segments?
effects?
©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.

5. Marketers
Are
Struggling
to
Meet
the
Challenges
65%
of
CMOs
told
IBM
they
are
54%
of
marke9ng
execs
told
BCG
“underprepared”
for
the
growth
they
do
not
have
the
tools
in
channel
&
device
choices,
63%
required
to
make
trade-­‐offs
said
it
for
demographic
shiOs
across
media
vehicles
>50%
picked
“measurement,
analysis
9%
of
marke9ng
execs
informed
and
learning”
and
“integra9ng
the
CMO
Council
that
they
cross-­‐channel
marke9ng”
as
#1
have
a
highly
evolved,
and
#2
challenges
in
a
Unica
poll
integrated
marke9ng
model
©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.

6. A
Revolu0on
in
Marke0ng
is
Underway
Planning
From
Annual
to
Agile
Branding
&
From
Mass
to
Engaged
Communica0on
Execu0on
From
Siloed
to
Integrated
Analysis
From
Historical
to
Forward-­‐Looking
Organiza0onal
From
Cabals
to
Collabora0ves
Behaviour
©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
6

7. A
ThinkVine
Marke0ng
Mux
Op0misa0on
Success
Story
• Business
Goals
• Acquire
new
customers
with
high
life9me
value
Financial
• Find
the
op9mal
spend
level
and
the
ROI
of
tac9cs
Services
• Discoveries
• Using
ThinkVine
soOware
the
company
discovered
• A
significant
shiO
from
tradi9onal
media
to
digital
would
meet
goals
• The
effect
of
each
marke9ng
tac9c
on
acquisi9on
volume
and
its
ROI
• The
likely
effects
of
new
marke9ng
tac9cs
at
scale
• The
shiO
to
digital
would
affect
brand
awareness
in
future
years
• Ac0ons
• Made
shiO
to
digital,
beat
customer
acquisi9on
targets
in
first
year
• Adjusted
mix
in
second
year
to
beXer
balance
short-­‐
and
long-­‐term
• Began
integra9ng
detailed
digital
data
into
planning
©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
7

8. Marke0ng
Mix
Today
Op0misa0on
Requirements
• Agile
What
people
• Accurate,
objec9ve
historical
Value
people
want
analysis
and,
more
importantly,
receive
forecasts
of
“Boardroom
Metrics”
Analyse
the
Measure
• Volume,
Sales,
ROI,
CLTV,
etc.
past,
present
Marke9ng
ROI
• AXribu9on
and
future
• Mul9dimensional
views
Forecast
• All
marke9ng
tac9cs
Sharing
business
marke9ng
• Consumer
segments
insights
across
outcomes
• Geographies
the
enterprise
• Reliable,
ac9onable
informa9on
Analyse
• Collabora9ve
process
Achieving
goals
impact
across
• Flexible
and
up-­‐to-­‐date
models
with
rela9vely
channels
• Low
total
cost
of
ownership
low
investment
©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
8

9. Marke0ng
Mix
Op0misa0on
Op0ons
Regression-­‐based
Mix
Agent-­‐based
Mix
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ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
9

10. Marke0ng
Mix
Op0misa0on
Op0ons
Regression-­‐based
Mix
Mathema9cal
approach.
Consultant/agency
or
internal
teams
do
as
a
project.
Technical
capabili9es
and
marke9ng
exper9se
vary
by
company
and
analyst
Historical
analysis
with
some
granularity
“teased
out”
of
the
top-­‐down
model.
Only
“sees”
large
amounts
and
variances
Forecasts
extend
history.
Validity
is
bounded
by
%
change.
Granularity
is
oOen
constrained.
No
consumers
or
new
tac9cs
in
the
forecast
Forecasts
are
typically
one
number.
Accuracy
has
a
short
half-­‐life
Fixed
form
equa9ons,
changes
are
effec9vely
new
projects
No
collabora9on
capability.
No
saved
plans,
typically
no
saved
forecasts
5-­‐6
figure
project
price
plus
add-­‐on
for
simulators
and
updates
©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
10

11. Marke0ng
Mix
Op0misa0on
Op0ons
Regression-­‐based
Mix
Agent-­‐based
Mix
(ThinkVine)
Mathema9cal
approach.
Consultant/agency
Complex
systems
approach
newly
applied
to
or
internal
teams
do
as
a
project.
Technical
marke9ng
by
using
data
about
consumer
capabili9es
and
marke9ng
exper9se
vary
by
behaviour.
The
soOware’s
simula9on
capability
company
and
analyst
and
the
marke9ng
exper9se
vary
by
company
Historical
analysis
with
some
granularity
Historical
analysis
with
significant
granularity
for
“teased
out”
of
the
top-­‐down
model.
Only
all
types
of
marke9ng
developed
boXom-­‐up,
“sees”
large
amounts
and
variances
including
on-­‐line
and
off-­‐line
aXribu9on
Forecasts
extend
history.
Validity
is
bounded
Forecasts
via
forward-­‐looking
scenarios
that
by
%
change.
Granularity
is
oOen
constrained.
make
extensive
use
of
custom
consumer
No
consumers
or
new
tac9cs
in
the
forecast
response
data
for
all
marke9ng
types
and
levels
Forecasts
are
typically
one
number.
Accuracy
Forecasts
are
mul9-­‐dimensional
with
significant
has
a
short
half-­‐life
granularity.
High
accuracy
over
long
periods
Fixed
form
equa9ons,
changes
are
effec9vely
Ongoing
data
updates,
periodic
recalibra9on
if
new
projects
needed
as
part
of
subscrip9on
No
collabora9on
capability.
No
saved
plans,
Built-­‐in
collabora9on
func9onality.
Plans
and
typically
no
saved
forecasts
forecasts
are
saved
in
the
soOware
5-­‐6
figure
project
price
plus
add-­‐on
for
5-­‐6
figure
annual
subscrip9on
fee
simulators
and
updates
©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
11

12. Organiza0onal
Profiles
Influence
the
Decision
Regression-­‐based
Mix
Agent-­‐based
Mix
• Familiarity
with
regression
is
• Organiza9on
is
open
to
change,
uses
important
to
organiza9on
analy9cs
for
compe99ve
advantage
• Marketplace
is
changing
slowly
• Marketplace
is
changing
rapidly
• Only
use
a
few
types
of
marke9ng,
• Use
many
types
of
marke9ng,
don’t
plan
to
try
new
things
experimen9ng
with
new
things
• Limited
or
no
segmenta9on
• Segmenta9on
is
important
• Minimal
compe99on
• Ac9ve
compe99on
• Plans
are
made
once
per
year
and
• Plans
are
updated
throughout
the
rarely
adjusted
year
based
on
results
• Collabora9on
with
&/or
second
• Collabora9on
with
&/or
second
opinion
of
agency
isn’t
important
opinion
of
agency
is
important
• Okay
with
9me
lag
for
new
projects
• Want
to
run
scenarios
themselves
to
get
updates
• Want
to
synchronize
and
integrate
• Internal
or
low-­‐cost
source
planning
and
execu9on
©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
12

13. Mix
and
Digital
Cross-­‐Channel
Adribu0on
Have
Different
Roles
ThinkVine
MMO
Digital
X-­‐Channel
Adribu0on
Focus
Strategic
planning
Tac9cal
execu9on
Objec0ve
Marke9ng
budget
op9miza9on
Campaign
conversion
op9miza9on
Emphasis
Achieve
key
goals
Realize
incremental
gains
Method
Effec9veness
via
behaviour
simula9on
Efficiency
via
itera9ve
execu9on
Forecasts
Short-­‐
and
long-­‐term
sales
forecasts
2-­‐8
week
campaign
forecast
Breadth
across
all
tac9cs,
consumer
Advantages
Depth
within
digital
segments
and
channels
ThinkVine
can
integrate
detailed
digital
(and
social,
etc.)
data
to
create
a
“virtuous
circle”
that
improves
both
planning
and
execu,on
©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
13

14. A
ThinkVine
Marke0ng
Mix
Op0misa0on
Success
Story
• Business
Goals
• Increase
market
share
in
very
compe99ve
category
Consumer
• Reverse
decline
in
brand
awareness
Services
• Discoveries
• Using
ThinkVine
soOware
the
company
discovered
• Erosion
in
brand
recogni9on
was
crea9ng
an
ever-­‐higher
hill
to
climb
• Compe9tor’s
television
blitz
had
further
eroded
brand
recogni9on
• The
right
budget
level,
mix
and
9ming
could
quickly
pay
back
• Ac0ons
• Won
Board
approval
to
increase
and
shiO
budget
• Increased
television
adver9sing
focused
on
innova9on
with
corresponding
digital
content
to
facilitate
path-­‐to-­‐ac9on
• Achieved
objec9ves
within
six
months,
got
“second
tranche”
funding
• Began
digging
deeper
into
the
effects
of
pricing
in
the
mix
©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
14

15. ThinkVine
Marke0ng
Mix
Op0misa0on
Sogware
Agent-­‐based
Modelling
(ABM)
Overview
“Regression
wasn’t
invented
for
marke,ng
mix;
it
was
applied
to
it.”
Is
agent-­‐based
modelling
new?
ABM
has
been
around
since
the
1940’s
with
roots
in
the
hard
sciences
Very
good
at
understanding
how
many
moving
parts
influence
an
outcome
Used
extensively
by
Boeing,
WHO,
DoT
©
ThinkVine.
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Rights
Reserved.
15

16. ThinkVine
Marke0ng
Mix
Op0misa0on
Sogware
Agent-­‐based
Modelling
(ABM)
Overview
Why
hasn’t
agent-­‐based
modelling
been
applied
to
marke9ng
un9l
now?
Lack
of
need
–
yesterday’s
marketplace
was
less
complex,
more
homogeneous
Lack
of
compu9ng
power
–
simula9ons
are
computa9onally
intensive
to
run
Lack
of
data
&
applied
IP
–
about
consumer
response
to
marke9ng
“ThinkVine’s
marke,ng
mix
op,misa,on
soJware
harnesses
the
advantages
and
advancements
of
ABM
to
address
the
growing
complexity
in
today’s
marke,ng
landscape.”
©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
16

17. ThinkVine’s
Sogware:
“Sim
City
for
CMOs”
ThinkVine’s
marke9ng
mix
op9misa9on
soOware
enables
you
to
simulate
the
•
results
of
your
marke9ng
plans
in
a
marketplace
where
a
representa9ve
popula9on
of
simulated
people
consume
media
and
purchase
products
the
way
real
people
do
Sales
Marke0ng
Ac0vi0es
• It
combines
demographic,
consumer
behavior
and
market
data
with
your
data
and
advanced
analy9cs
to
deliver
the
forward-­‐looking
informa9on
you
need
to
maximize
results
–
accurate
forecasts
with
rich,
mul9dimensional
informa9on
by
consumer
group,
type
of
marke9ng,
product,
channel
and
geography
©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
17

18. Find
the
Op0mal
Investment
Level
to
Meet
Your
Objec0ves
ROI
and
Gross
Margin
by
Total
Marke0ng
Investment
Max
ROI
2011
What
If?
$100
MM
$145
MM
Spent
Budget
Max
Margin
What
If?
$300
MM
Budget
• The
soOware
enables
your
team
to
easily
run
“What
If?”
scenarios.
You
can
find
the
op9mal
investment
levels
to
meet
various
strategic
and
tac9cal
objec9ves.
©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
18

19. Iden0fy
the
Marke0ng
Plan
Most
Likely
to
Deliver
the
Best
Results
Comparison
of
2012
Marke0ng
Plan
Alterna0ves
+8.8%
185
+4.7%
+2.9%
Units
(MM)
+1.8%
178
-­‐1.2%
175
173
170
168
2012
2012
2011
2012
2012
2012
$180
MM
$185
MM
$180
MM
$180
MM
$175
MM
$180
MM
Budget
Budget
Spent
Budget
Budget
Budget
Shig
$5
MM
Shig
$5
MM
Same
Mix
Cut
$5
MM
Shig
$5
MM
Print
to
Print
to
Digital
as
2011
in
Print
Print
to
TV
Digital
Add
$5
MM
TV
• The
soOware
enables
fast,
objec9ve
comparisons
of
marke9ng
plan
alterna9ves.
You
can
vary
spending
levels,
9ming,
mix
of
tac9cs
and
consumer
groups
targeted.
©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
19

20. Discover
Which
Marke0ng
Tac0cs
Will
Yield
High
ROI
ROI
by
Type
of
Marke0ng
Ac0vity
• The
soOware
analyses
and
predicts
how
marke9ng
tac9cs
influence
purchases.
• You
see
granular
informa9on
about
how
each
performs
in
the
context
of
the
overall
plan.
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ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
20

21. Learn
What
Works
Best
by
Consumer
Segment
Marke0ng
Tac0c
Effec0veness
By
Consumer
Group
50+
Affluent
TV
50+
Other
Radio
Print
<30
Affluent
Digital
Ads
Search
Other
<30
Mobile
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
• The
soOware
reveals
how
well
marke9ng
tac9cs
work
alone
and
in
combina9on
by
consumer
group.
You
can
tune
your
mix
to
efficiently
reach
segments
you
target.
©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
21

22. Understand
the
Short-­‐
and
Long-­‐Term
Value
of
Marke0ng
Effect
of
Proposed
Marke0ng
Plans
By
Year
160
140
19%
“Brand
value”
120
22%
25%
100
2014
Plan
Units
(MM)
26%
28%
80
2013
Plan
18%
74%
81%
2012
Plan
60
Base
50%
78%
Pre-­‐2012
Base
Base
38%
40
20
0
2012
2013
2014
• The
soOware
forecasts
current
and
future
year
effects
of
marke9ng
plans.
You
can
see
the
cumula9ve
value
of
new
marke9ng
strategies
and
ini9a9ves.
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ThinkVine.
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Rights
Reserved.
22

23. Forecast
Results
of
New
Marke0ng
Ini0a0ves
Planned
Marke0ng
Mix
Proposed
Mix
with
Mobile
Added
Mass
Media
Mass
Media
67%
61%
Promo0ons
11%
Digital
Promo0ons
Mobile
22%
11%
Digital
6%
22%
Unit
Sales
Forecast
2012
Original
2012
Add
Mobile
%
Change
Total
Units
(‘000s)
36,928
38,109
3%
• The
soOware
provides
informa9on
about
the
likely
value
of
all
marke9ng
tac9cs,
including
tac9cs
not
used
before.
You
understand
the
poten9al
before
you
invest.
©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
23

24. ThinkVine
Marke0ng
Mix
Op0misa0on
Sogware
Our
Approach
ThinkVine
replicates
reality
by
crea9ng
a
custom,
simulated
marketplace
in
which
you
can
measure
purchase
behaviour
across
consumers
and
by
marke9ng
ac9vity.
1 Build
Agent
Popula0on
Consumer
agents
are
configured
to
be
highly
representa9ve
of
a
popula9on
using
demographic
and
media
consump9on
data.
2 Add
Customer
Data
The
agents’
behaviour
is
informed
by
customer-­‐supplied
data
about
the
category,
the
product,
pricing,
marke9ng
ac9vity,
etc.
3 Create
Market
Model
ThinkVine’s
experts
develop
a
custom
model
in
which
the
agents
respond
to
marke9ng
ac9vity
and
make
purchases
within
the
category
in
a
realis9c
way.
4 Ongoing
Planning
The
soOware
enables
marketers
to
quickly
and
easily
run
scenarios
in
a
frequently
updated
marketplace
and
get
a
rich,
objec9ve
set
of
decision-­‐making
informa9on.
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ThinkVine.
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Rights
Reserved.
24

25.
Building
an
Agent
Popula0on
Demographics
Sample
Consumer
Male
47
Years
Old
Caucasian
Income,
$110,000
/
yr.
• We
mathema9cally
recreate
a
representa9ve
popula9on
of
target
markets
by
sta9s9cally
drawing
from
empirical
distribu9ons
of
many
variables
• Targe9ng
variables
include
geography,
income,
age,
ethnicity,
etc.
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ThinkVine.
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Rights
Reserved.
25

26.
Building
an
Agent
Popula0on
Media
Consump0on
• We
assign
the
agents
media
#
of
minutes
watching
television
per
day
consump9on
behavior
by
tapping
a
variety
of
widely-­‐
accepted
sources
of
consumer
behaviour
data
• We
use
patent-­‐pending
IP
to
#
of
minutes
using
social
media
per
day
sample
from
these
known
distribu9ons
and
assign
media
exposure
probabili9es
• As
a
result,
some
agents
watch
a
lot
of
television
(and
have
#
of
minutes
shopping
online
per
day
higher
exposure
probabili9es)
while
others
will
watch
liXle
to
no
television
(and
have
lower
probabili9es)
©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
26

27.
Building
an
Agent
Popula0on
Consumer
Agents
• The
soOware
now
contains
a
marketplace
of
agents
that
is
representa9ve
of
the
consumers
in
your
marketplace
• It
also
contains
marke9ng
science-­‐based
rules
about
response
and
purchase
behaviour
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ThinkVine.
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Rights
Reserved.
27

28.
Adding
Customer
Data
ThinkVine
Marke0ng
Mix
Op0miza0on
Sogware:
Your
Data
Required
Data
Marke0ng
plans
Media,
promo9on,
marke9ng,
digital
Sales
data
Syndicated
data,
internal
sales
data
Enhance
&
Improve
Your
Results
Market
research
data
Segmenta9on,
price
elas9city,
exogenous
factors,
addi9onal
general
and
demographic-­‐based
media
consump9on
data,
etc.
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ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
28

29.
Adding
Customer
Data
Purchasing
Behavior
• We
use
the
customer
data
to
configure
the
agents
so
their
purchase
behaviour
matches
how
consumers
actually
purchase
within
the
specific
category
Category
Purchase
Brand
Frequency
Awareness
4
~90%
Purchase
Probability
~20%
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ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
29

30. Crea0ng
the
Market
Model
A
“Bodom-­‐up”
Approach
That
Predicts
More
Accurately
1 Training
the
system
ThinkVine’s
analysts
develop
and
calibrate
a
custom
model
that
recreates
past
sales
from
the
“boXom
up”
by
establishing
consumer-­‐centric
rules
that
fit
historical
results.
2 Proving
the
system
Once
the
system
is
trained,
we
validate
it
by
comparing
the
most
recent
6
months
of
actual
sales
(“hold
out”
data
not
used
to
train
the
system)
to
a
simula9on
of
that
6
month
period.
3 Using
the
system
Once
the
model
has
been
calibrated
&
validated,
it
is
ready
to
accurately
forecast
future
sales
and
provide
rich
decision
support
informa9on
for
each
marke9ng
plan
and
“what
if”
scenario.
Train
Prove
Use
Calibra9on
using
demographic,
consump9on,
plan,
research
&
sales
data
Validate
with
hold
out
data
Forecasts
2
Years
Sales
History
1-­‐2
Quarters
Future
Simulated
Actual
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ThinkVine.
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Rights
Reserved.
30

31. ThinkVine
and
Partners
Deliver
Value
Quickly
and
Over
Time
Configura0on
&
Agile,
objec0ve
marke0ng
planning
&
op0misa0on
Ini0al
Guidance
• Analysis
of
recent
• Respond
quickly
to
market
and
budget
changes
by
marke9ng
ac9vity
running
“What
If?”
analyses
of
marke9ng
plans
• Recommenda0ons
for
• See
forecasts
with
rich
informa0on
by
consumer
group,
immediate
changes
in
marke9ng
tac9c,
channels
and
geography
the
marke9ng
mix
• Iden0fy
new
opportuni0es
for
growth
and
savings
• Accurate
forecasts
• See
the
effects
of
media
you
haven’t
tried
before
• Create
effec0ve,
efficient
integrated
plans
across
all
marke9ng
ac9vi9es
• Receive
expert
ongoing
marke0ng
support
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ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
31

32. Sample
Screens:
Create
Scenarios
at
a
High-­‐level
or
In
Detail
High-­‐level
By
group
&
year
In
Detail
By
type
&
week
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ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
32

33. Sample
Screens:
Compare
Plans,
Review
by
Tac0c,
Segment,
Etc.
Compare
ROI
of
plans,
filter
High-­‐level
results
by
9me,
By
group
&
year
segment,
etc.
Long-­‐term
effects
of
plans
“Due
to”
and
ROI
by
tac9c
and
segment
©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
33

34. A
ThinkVine
Marke0ng
Mix
Op0misa0on
Success
Story
• Business
Goals
• Increase
market
share
while
maintaining
margins
Consumer
• Improve
overall
marke9ng
ROI
Products
• Discoveries
• Based
on
recent
success
with
a
specific
consumer
group,
the
agency
recommended
doubling
the
targeted
radio
ads
at
mid-­‐year
• Using
ThinkVine
soOware
the
company
discovered
• Ads
drive
traffic
to
store,
but
in-­‐store
price
drives
purchase
decisions
• The
marginal
return
from
more
ads
to
the
group
would
be
very
low
• There
was
a
large
consumer
group
with
more
upside
poten9al
• Ac0ons
• Adjusted
its
marke9ng
mix
to
achieve
its
business
goals
• Now
quan9fies
all
proposed
changes
via
planning
soOware
©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
34

35. ThinkVine's
marke9ng
mix
op9misa9on
soOware
provides
B2C
marketers
with
the
forward-­‐looking
informa9on
they
need
to
get
the
maximum
return
across
all
of
their
marke9ng
investments.
See
a
2
minute
video
overview
at
www.thinkvine.com
or
call
+1
513
842
5900
©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.