Information Markets for Human Resource Planning & Management

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Presentation by Rose Baker and David Passmore at <i>Measuring Your Talent and Organization: Beyond the Basics</i> in the CEO 2006 Teleconference Series on Human Resources and Metrics sponsored by the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, 16 November 2006.

Economía y finanzas Empresariales

Information Futures Markets for Human Resource Planning and Management Rose M. Baker David L. Passmore Penn State

Useful information is required for sound decisions… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],For example:

What techniques do you use to obtain information?

But, good information is difficult to obtain… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

A futures contract is… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

A typical commodity futures contract… 5,000 bushels of No. 2 Yellow Corn for delivery in Minneapolis, Minnesota on 1 March 2006.

Prices have useful features… Act like a vacuum sweeper, collecting and aggregating information that is otherwise highly decentralized and privately held.

A NewsFutures market: Outcome of Super Bowl…

Super Bowl market: Price/volume plot for 24 hours

NewsFutures Super Bowl market: Closing details

Information markets also are called idea futures markets… ,[object Object],[object Object]

An information futures market: Foresight Exchange … http://www.ideosphere.com

BUSH04 contract from Foresight Exchange … “ G.W. Bush, the president of the United States at the time that this claim started trading, will still be president on 2005-02-01 (after the inauguration after the election is usually scheduled).”

Criterion for judging BUSH04 … “ This claim will be TRUE even if elections are postponed or G.W. Bush remains in power by staging a coup. If there are events which make it confusing who the US president is, as of 2005-02-01, this claim is true if G.W. Bush is leading a sovereign government in at least part of the United States of America that has recognition of at least one of the UN Security Council permanent members (Britain, China, and Russia) other than the United States.”

Some prominent information markets… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Policy Analysis Market… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],(terminated)

Collective intelligence & markets in public eye

Markets have business uses… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Means of aggregating information used… Single estimate Probability distribution Single estimate or distribution 10% 10% 80%

When markets help most… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Organizations still are experimenting with forecasting… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Coordination is complex and is less explored than forecasting… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Market uses are limited and fragile… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

O’Reilly publishing… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Microsoft… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Google ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Arcelor… ,[object Object],[object Object]

Hewlett Packard sales forecasts… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Hewlett Packard sales forecasts… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],6 of the 8 sales forecasts from idea futures markets were closer to the actual sales outcome than were official HP forecasts.

Some uses.. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Web site with a similar presentation to Human Resource Planning Society… http://www.personal.psu.edu/dlp/hrps ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Rose M. Baker [email_address] David L. Passmore [email_address]

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Information Markets for Human Resource Planning & Management

1. Information Futures Markets for Human Resource Planning and Management Rose M. Baker David L. Passmore Penn State

3. What techniques do you use to obtain information?

5. FUTURES MARKETS…

7. A typical commodity futures contract… 5,000 bushels of No. 2 Yellow Corn for delivery in Minneapolis, Minnesota on 1 March 2006.

8. Prices have useful features… Act like a vacuum sweeper, collecting and aggregating information that is otherwise highly decentralized and privately held.

9. IDEA FUTURES MARKETS…

10. A NewsFutures market: Outcome of Super Bowl…

11. Super Bowl market: Price/volume plot for 24 hours

12. NewsFutures Super Bowl market: Closing details

13.

14. An information futures market: Foresight Exchange … http://www.ideosphere.com

15. BUSH04 contract from Foresight Exchange … “ G.W. Bush, the president of the United States at the time that this claim started trading, will still be president on 2005-02-01 (after the inauguration after the election is usually scheduled).”

16. Criterion for judging BUSH04 … “ This claim will be TRUE even if elections are postponed or G.W. Bush remains in power by staging a coup. If there are events which make it confusing who the US president is, as of 2005-02-01, this claim is true if G.W. Bush is leading a sovereign government in at least part of the United States of America that has recognition of at least one of the UN Security Council permanent members (Britain, China, and Russia) other than the United States.”

17. Price plot for BUSH04

18. Volume plot for BUSH04

19.

20. Iowa Electronic Markets…

21. Hollywood Stock Exchange…

22. TradeSports…

23. Intrade…

24.

25. THE POTENTIAL…

26. Collective intelligence & markets in public eye

27.

28. Means of aggregating information used… Single estimate Probability distribution Single estimate or distribution 10% 10% 80%