1. The Energy Outlook to 2030: global
trends and what can bend them?
Alexander Naumov
Cambridge, December 2011

2. Outline
Global trends
What can bend the trend?
Energy Outlook 2030 2 © BP 2011

3. Historical trends and patterns of development
Energy use per unit of GDP
toe per thousand $2009 PPP
Forecast
0.6
UK
0.4
0.2
0.0
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
3 © BP 2011

4. Historical trends and patterns of development
Energy use per unit of GDP
toe per thousand $2009 PPP
Forecast
0.6
US
UK
0.4
0.2
Japan
0.0
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Energy Outlook 2030 4 © BP 2011

5. Historical trends and patterns of development
Energy use per unit of GDP
toe per thousand $2009 PPP
Forecast
0.6
Russia/USSR
US
0.4
0.2
Japan
0.0
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Energy Outlook 2030 5 © BP 2011

6. Historical trends and patterns of development
Energy use per unit of GDP
toe per thousand $2009 PPP
0.6 Forecast
0.4
China
US
0.2
World
India
0.0
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Energy Outlook 2030 6 © BP 2011

7. The long view: Energy consumption and fuel mix
World commercial energy use Contribution to total energy growth
Billion toe % p.a.
18 5
Renewables *
Nuclear
15
Hydro 4
Gas
12
Oil 3
Coal
9
2
6
1
3
0 0
1870 1910 1950 1990 2030 1850- 1910- 1970- 1990- 2010-
* Includes biofuels 1910 1970 1990 2010 2030
Energy Outlook 2030 7 © BP 2011

8. Non-OECD drive energy growth, while fuel shares converge
Primary energy by region Shares of world primary energy
Billion toe
18 50%
Oil
16
14 40%
12
30% Coal
10
8
Non-OECD 20%
6 Gas
4 10%
OECD Hydro
2
Nuclear
Renewables*
0 0%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1970 1990 2010 2030
* Includes biofuels
Energy Outlook 2030 8 © BP 2011

9. Policies to constrain carbon emissions gradually tighten
Global CO2 emissions from energy use
by region by fuel vs GDP and energy
Billion tonnes CO2 Billion tonnes CO2 Index (1990=100)
40 40 400
350 GDP
30 30
Coal 300
20 20 250
Non-OECD
Gas Energy
200
10 10
CO 2
Oil 150
OECD
0 0 100
1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030
Energy Outlook 2030 9 © BP 2011

10. What can bend the trend?
© BP 2011

11. 1. The future path of global economic growth
Primary energy consumption Differences from Base Case, 2030
Billion toe
20 20%
GDP
High GDP
Case Base 15%
Case Primary
15 10% Energy
Oil
Low GDP 5%
Case
10 0% Gas
-5% Coal
5 -10%
Non-fossil
-15%
0 -20%
High Low
2000 2010 2020 2030 Case
Case
Energy Outlook 2030 11 © BP 2011

12. 2. China’s pathway
Industrialisation Energy per capita
Industry share - % of GDP Toe / person
50 9 US 1820-2009
China 2009
45 8
Japan 1885-2009 7
40
6
35
5
30 Japan 1870-2009
4
25
3
20 US 1879-2009
2
15 1 China 1913-2030
10 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50
GDP per capita ($2009PPP, Thousands) GDP per capita ($2009PPP, Thousands)
Energy Outlook 2030 12 © BP 2011

13. 3. Stronger policy action on climate change
CO2 emissions from energy use Sources of carbon abatement
versus Base Case, 2030
Billion tonnes CO2
40 2030
Base Case 2020
Iraq
5.4 billion tonnes
35 reduction CCS
Policy
Fuel
Case
30 switching
25 IEA “450 Scenario” * Energy
efficiency
20
2000 2010 2020 2030
* a back-cast which illustrates what is required to stabilise greenhouse
gas concentrations at 450 ppm from IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010
Energy Outlook 2030 13 © BP 2011

14. 4. Energy security
Mtoe OECD Europe US China
1500 100%
1250 Oil & gas
consumption
75%
1000
750 50%
500 Oil & gas
production
25%
250
0 0%
1990 1990 – 2030
2010 20301990 1990 – 2030
2010 2030
1990 1990 – 2030
2010 2030
Net imports as % of consumption (rhs): Oil Gas
Energy Outlook 2030 14 © BP 2011

15. Q&A
A trend is a trend is a trend.
But the question is, will it bend?
Will it alter its course
Through some unforeseen force
And come to a premature end?
(Alec Cairncross)
Energy Outlook 2030 15
For more detail see the full outlook on our website: www.bp.com/Energyoutlook2030 © BP 2011