Semico Summit 2009 kickoff slides modified and re-presented at Right Management

1. Author – Jim Feldhan
Presented by David Ford 3/16 with permission from
Semico Research Corp.
March 9, 2009

2. Recession Frame of Mind
Recessions present opportunities
Cut selectively to invest strategically
Become indispensable to your customers*
Some will emerge stronger
Uncertainty
Long or Short ?
Shallow or Deep ? Recovery
Doom and Gloom
*Be seen as valuable to your target employer

3. Fly Me to the Moon
• 3 former Presidents
• 168 Corporations
• Individuals
Buying land on the moon!
CRAZY?

4. Crazy or
Thinking Outside of the Box
• It is estimated there is 1,100,000 metric tons of
He3 on the lunar surface
• 1 million metric tons of He3 would generate
20,000 terawatt-years of thermal energy
• 25 tons of He3 would power the U.S. for 1 year
at current consumption. That is the max space
shuttle payload.
• Could power the US for 10,000 years

5. Green Markets are They New?
“Our natural resources are being consumed, wasted, and
destroyed at a rate which threatens them with
exhaustion…the coal, iron, oil, gas, and the like, does
not reproduce itself ”
Theodore Roosevelt
1908 Governors Conference
“But the time has come to inquire seriously what will
happen when… the coal, the iron, the oil, and the gas are
exhausted, ……”
“The exhaustion is certain to come in time. We can trust that
it will be deferred long enough to enable the extraordinarily
inventive genius of our people to devise means and
methods for more or less adequately replacing what is lost;
but the exhaustion is sure to come.”

6. Crazy or
Thinking Outside of the Box
• Synfuels International Inc. producing a high
octane gasoline from methane. Conceived at
Texas A & M, cost $25 per barrel.
• AlGa– Hydrogen on demand by adding water
• Solar power plastic
• Virus Li-ion battery
• Algae farm in Mexico ethanol from algae 6,000
gallons/acre/yr, corn's rate 370 gallons/acre/yr
sugar cane's 890 gallons/acre/yr.

7. New Applications Still Emerging

8. Wireless Recharging
• MIT successfully
demonstrated at 3‟ & 6‟
distances
• Ultimate in recharging
convenience in home and
office
• Wirelessly powering
pacemakers and artificial
hearts

9. Futuristic Windshield
GM researchers
are working on a
windshield that
combines lasers,
infrared sensors
and a camera to
enhance the road
safety.

10. Fuel Cells to Samsung
• Direct Methanol Fuel Cell Corporation
(DMFCC) will deliver disposable methanol
fuel cartridges to Samsung for integration
into portable electronics like notebook
computers, mobile phones and small
portable power stations.
• Toshiba also taking delivery
• Other technology Solid Hydrogen Storage

11. 4G and WiMax – Its Here!
• 4G Long Term
Evolution (LTE) service
with the aim of
launching commercial
service in 2010
– download rates of 50 to
60 megabits per second
• The 700 MHz spectrum
previously used for
television signals, was
acquired by Verizon,
AT&T and others

12. „Super' Batteries and Capacitors
• MIT Technology Review is
reporting on a breakthrough
in manufacturing thin,
dense films of carbon
nanotubes that could
improve electrodes used in
'super' batteries

13. The World of Semiconductors

14. What‟s Different This Time Around?
2000/2001 vs. 2008/2009
– Growth rates, inventories, market reactions
• 2000 tech bubble that burst in Q4 2000
• Dramatic capacity increases
• Increased inventories for 2 years and ignored the
build-up
• Many Dot-com companies disappeared in 2001
– 2008 was a down year
• No tech bubble
• Inventory reduction started in Q3 2008
• Little capacity expansion

15. 0
50
100
150
300
350
200
250
19
89
19
90
19
$ in Billions
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
Recession
19
96
19
97
19
Inventory Excess
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Forecast
20
World Semiconductor Market
13

16. Other Semico Summit Info
• For the 1st time, in 2008 there were more pings
for social networking…..
• Unlike other trade organizations, shows,
conferences; this Summit had 100 C-level and
20 non-C attendees, 10% MORE than 2008‟s
Summit
• All the major fabs (and vertical companies with
in-house fabs) raised their forecasts in the last 3
weeks

17. More…continued
• Virtually all the CEOs reported that their
major layoffs are done and expenses are
now below (low estimated) revenue.
– Company healthy now (tough but needed)
– Upturn in $ will result in profit
• Innovation continues – talent required!

18. Summary
• The recession will end so enable YOUR
recovery.
– Right ZIP teams/training
– Networking
– Education
• We need to think and act creatively to
promote our value and innovations
• Smart investments in our time will win