Dean Bubley presentation at Ofcom Mapping The Future 2019 Spectrum Conference
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Presentation given by Dean Bubley of Disruptive Analysis at UK telecom regulator Ofcom's 2019 "Mapping the Future" Spectrum conference in London. 15-minute introduction as part of a forward-looking panel session on possible future 10yr+ visions. Disruptive Analysis presented alongside speakers/panellists from Google & FCC Slides cover future wireless use-cases, potential for future spectum rules & 6G design goals to be energy/CO2-centred, raises questions about harmonisation, and notes that planned use-cases and deployments often overstate near-term potential.
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Dean Bubley presentation at Ofcom Mapping The Future 2019 Spectrum Conference
- 1. Wireless Disruptors & Implications for Spectrum Mgmt Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis Ofcom “Mapping the Future”, September 2019 dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean Image credits: Pixabay.com / Dean Bubley
- 2. Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019 September 2019 bpd bps Gbps 10m Non- critical Function- critical 90% 99% 99.9% Rural Unlicensed Spectrum 3D Coverage Bandwidth Kbps Importance Business- critical Safety- critical Range <1m Mbps And also: Latency Deterministic Power source Socioeconomic Geopolitical Security model Mobility Integration Bi-directional Protocols Lobbying power 1km >10km 100m 4G / 5G / LPWA / Satellite / TVWS / .11ah Wi-Fi 5, 6, 7, ay Biz Model CSP Private Amenity Community Decentralised Indoor Many dimensions for future wireless Shared Secondary Local Exclusive Licenses Sensed National Dynamic
- 3. Future spectrum management: Environmental & CO2 angle Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019 6G system- wider design goals 5G power consump- tion Changing weather & mmWave New use- cases Resource needs direct / indirect Balancing frequency, MIMO, power etc
- 4. From sharing to dynamic spectrum to realtime MNO-aaS Static allocations • National MNOs • P2P licenses • Manual processes • High costs / auction model • SP-led focus Basic Spectrum Sharing • Local / private / neutral MNOs • Some manual, some SAS-based (CBRS) • Some innovators Automated / dynamic sharing • Spectrum market- places inc. 2ndary • Basic APIs • Non realtime • Expert buyers / integrators Full Network-aaS • MNO design / operation from cloud • Spectrum, RAN, core, SIM, transport • Looks like a toolkit • Broad channels to market Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019
- 5. Will harmonisation be as important in future, as in the past? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019September 2019 (…. and SDR)
- 6. Politics & practicalities Patchiness, costs, glitches, skills, OSS/BSS etc Substitutes, margin pressure obsolescence Biz case & products Adoption & ecosystem Distractions & Disruptions: Spectrum & market timing Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019 Hype begins Pilots & PoCs Commercial launch Scale & profitability Concept Prototypes Hype begins PoC paralysis Commercial launch late Smaller scale & lower profitability Concept Prototypes Internal Distractions Initial unrealistic assumptions on timing External Disruptions
- 7. Other areas to consider ◼ Device SDR ◼ Blockchain ◼ Intra-device wireless connections Very-short range wireless (eg on-chip) ◼ Better 3-dimensional spectrum rights, maps & tools ◼ More device-to-device comms ◼ Post-Brexit divergence on spectrum ◼ Redefining ITU’s IMT definition beyond just “services” Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019