Disruptive Analysis - PTC Spectrum Futures Sep 18 2017

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Presentation given by Dean Bubley at Pacific Telecoms Council conference on Spectrum Futures, in Bangkok Sep 2017. Covers future technology trends, wireless requirements, telecom services, spectrum-sharing & AI

Tecnología

Futurism: What does 2030 mean for Spectrum?
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
Spectrum Futures, Bangkok 18th September 2017
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean
Image Credits: Pixabay.com / Dean Bubley unless stated

Dean Bubley & Disruptive Analysis
 Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting since 1991
 Futurism, Forecasting, Anti-Forecasting, Policy
 Cross-silo, contrarian, independent
 Often provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong.
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017
Network Tech, Policy
& Business Models
Communications
Apps & Services
Telecom-Futurism

Key trends for the next 10-15 years
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017
Automation & Robotics Smart Environments AI
New Vehicles & Transport Human Enhancement & Longevity New Dangers & Risks

We need to change our assumptions & semantics for 2030
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017
Services Capabilities
Competition Substitution
Harmonisation Diversity
Managed Intelligent
Ubiquitous Tailored

Don’t assume “one size fits all”, technology or biz model
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017

Monocultures: Harmonisation brings efficiency… and risks
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017

What is a service provider?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017
MNO
MVNO
TowerCo
WISP
Roaming
Car-SP
Private MNO
PS-Org
SliceNO
eSIM SP
Fixed telco
Cable MSO
Biz. MSP
AltNet
Fix-Wireless
Wholesale
FibreCo
SD-WAN
Sec-aaS
Community
Mobile Fixed
Broadcast
Satellite
ISP/Hosting
VenueSP
cPaaS
IndustrySP
CDN
SDR-aaS
Mesh-aaS
IoT-SP
Other
What is a “service”?
Subscription basis?
Service vs. feature?
Substitution risks?
Infrastructure?
Boundary with software?
Decentralised?
What is a 2030 CSP?
Uncertainties

What will the word “service” mean in 2030?
“Service” ITU Definition : “A set of functions offered to a user by an organisation”
This definition seems to exclude:
 A set of functions owned & self-provisioned by a user
 A set of functions offered to a developer by an organisation
 A set of functions embedded in a 3rd-party product or other non-radio service
 A set of functions made available as a public amenity
 A set of functions owned & consumed by an autonomous organisation
 A set of functions enshrined as a human right
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017

Wireless “service providers” of the future?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017 *Disclosure: Disruptive Analysis is an advisor to Ammbr
*

Many ways to solve any problem: arbitrage is everywhere
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017
The same is true for connectivity options:
Substitution parallels competition

Pervasive AI will deeply impact network demand & supply
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017
Least-cost
routing
Energy
Management
Quasi-QoS
Edge / On-Device
Compute
Autonomous
& Offline
Path
Optimisation
Capacity
Planning
IoT data
management

IIoT & Industry 4.0 has many domain-specific requirements
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017

“National” licenses are necessary but not sufficient
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017
Power station
Car factory
AirportOil refinery
Port
Offshore
windfarm
Shared Spectrum rules could enable private, regional industrial-grade 5G/WiFi
networks for IoT & Industry 4.0 (Perhaps with a blockchain register?)
Smart City
Sports
Stadium

Multiple platforms & ecosystem diversity adds resilience
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017
image: www.freeimages.co.uk

What might 2030 mean for spectrum policy?
 IoT, AI, SDR & XaaS changes everything
 Rethink “services” & SPs
 Network ownership gets democratised / decentralised
 Industrial IoT brings new requirements
 National vs. Geo-specific licencing
 Many tech pathways for any “outcome”
 Question network “monoculture” vs “diversity”
 Future spectrum policy must enable new models
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017

www.deanbubley.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
information@disruptive-analysis.com
Skype:disruptiveanalysis
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017

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