2. 21 juni 2017
Probabilistic analysis macro stability
1. Probabilistic toolkit
2. Macro stability case
3. Sensitivity analysis
4. Semi probabilistic analysis
5. Full probabilistic analysis
3. What is the probabilistic toolkit
• Application for domain experts, who want to apply probabilistics on
their model.
• Applicable to each model. Long running calculations can be
applied.
• The domain expert doesn’t have to be an expert in probabilistics.
• Enables the user to determine the sensitivity, probability of failure
and band width of a model, given the uncertainties in the input
parameters
• Gives insight in the performed calculations
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4. 21 juni 2017
Probabilistic toolkit
Apply probabilistic techniques on any model
Main Tasks
Run model
Use design values
Optimization
Sensitivity analysis
Single variation
Probability of failure
Numerical Integration
Monte Carlo
FORM
Band width
Monte Carlo
FOSM
Models
Scripts (Python, C#)
Executables
Batch files
Libraries (dll)
Combinations
Applications
Geotechnical failure
(slope stability, design
optimization, sheet piles, settlement)
Asset management
Coastal morphology
Training probabilistic
5. Probabilistic toolkit
Workflow
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Prepare input
file
Existing
application
Define
distributions
Sensitivity
analysis
Failure
probability
Bandwidth
Inspect
calculations
Attach input and
application
Run model
7. Case description
Four regions:
below dike and outside dike
above phreatic level and below phreatic level
Below phreatic level weak soils behave undrained, above they
behave drained
Soil parameters to determine shear stress
Drained: (C, φ) same below dike and outside dike
Undrained: (S, m) different below dike and outside dike
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8. Water levels
Phreatic level based calculated by flow models
Other levels calculated with phreatic level as input
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9. Traffic load
Traffic load
Lower traffic load when water level is higher
WL < 2.6 : 15 kPa
2.6 < WL < 3.29: 12 kPa
3.29 < WL: 5 kPa
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10. Get acquainted with macro stability case
• Perform variations on the input data
• Perform sensitivity analysis on the input data
• By using the Probabilistic Toolkit
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12. Probabilistic analysis based on same data
Uncertainty in soil parameters
Uncertainty in water level
Uncertainty in load parameters
Norm: Over all allowed probability of failure (1/10000 years)
Reduction because taking measures decreases long term average
(1/3000 years)
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13. Semi probabilistic analysis
• Use design values
• Design value = Quantile (stochastic variable) / material factor
• Quantile = 0.05 for strength parameters
• Material factor = 1
• Use the water level at 1/3000 years
• Quantile = 1 – 1/3000, which equals 3.20 m NAP
• Required safety factor
• Model factors increase the required safety factor
• Schade (1.1), Uplift Van (1.06), Schematization (1.1)
• Leads to required safety factor of 1.28
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16. Full probabilstic analysis
Use the water level at 1/3000 years = 3.20 m NAP
Equals probability of 3.3E-4
Length effect, cross section representable for 20 km: 1 / (1 + L/lcorr)
Other mechanisms, macro stability takes 0.04
Leads to prob of failure of approx. 1E-06
Corresponds with reliability index of 4.78
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17. Probabilistic technique
Theoretical approach:
Numerical integration over all stochastic variables
Each variable varies over its complete range
Each combination is calculated
Takes lots of calculation time
Alternatives
Monte Carlo
Importance sampling
FORM
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