These are the supporting materials used by the different speakers of the H2020 WHY project opening session. This evento was held on September 10, 2020.

1. © Fraunhofer ISI
Dr. Heike Brugger (Fraunhofer ISI)
NEWTRENDS
SHORT INTRODUCTION

2. © Fraunhofer ISI
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NewTRENDs’: From linear developments to disruptive trends
New Societal Trends:
 societal developments arising from general Megatrends
 potentially large (increasing or decreasing) impacts on energy consumption as well as
cross-sectoral demand shifts
 not simply the extrapolation of already presently observed trends ("continuous or linear trends")
 may take up speed when they are embraced by larger parts of the society ("disruptive or non-
linear trends")
Bloomberg.com news.sky.com

3. © Fraunhofer ISI
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NewTRENDs’: From linear developments to disruptive trends
New Societal Trends:
 societal developments arising from general Megatrends
 potentially large (increasing or decreasing) impacts on energy consumption as well as
cross-sectoral demand shifts
 not simply the extrapolation of already presently observed trends ("continuous or linear trends")
 may take up speed when they are embraced by larger parts of the society ("disruptive or non-
linear trends")
Such trends include in particular:
 Transition of Consumers to Prosumagers
 Move towards a Circular Economy and a Low-carbon industry
 Digitalisation of the Economy and of private lives
 Trends towards a Shared Economy.

4. © Fraunhofer ISI
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NewTRENDs’ overall project aims
 Increase the qualitative and quantitative understanding of impacts of these New Societal
Trends on energy consumption
 Improve the modelling of energy demand, energy efficiency and policy instruments in
the light of these trends
 Increase the ability of policy makers to guide those trends in the light of the Paris
Agreement and the long-term climate and energy targets of the European Union
 Explore the future impact of these New Societal Trends through scenarios which consider
changes in lifestyle

5. © Fraunhofer ISI
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NewTRENDs’ objectives
 identifying and quantifying how such New Societal Trends affect energy demand (its structure
and patterns, including cross-sectoral interdependencies)
 investigating how energy demand models are to be improved to represent such New Societal
Trends
 representing policies in energy demand models that can influence such trends in the light of
the Energy Efficiency First (EE1) Principle brought forward in the EU policy framework
 integrating recent empirical findings on the impacts of such New Societal Trends into energy
demand models
 integrating information from detailed data sources such as smart meter data available
from recent technical advances, in order to improve the empirical basis for such investigations
 dealing with uncertainties that are inherent when assessing new societal trends

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WP5 Focus Topic
Prosumagers and
Big Data
(Sectoral Focus:
Built Environment)
WP6 Focus Topic
Circular Economy /
Digitalisation
(Sectoral Focus:
Industry/Tertiary)
WP7 Focus Topic
Shared Economy
(Sectoral Focus:
Transport/Tertiary)
WP2 Selection of New Societal Trends and Quantification of Impacts on Energy Demand
WP3TransitionPathwaysforNewSocietalTrends
andMethodologicalImprovementin
ModellingsuchTrends(Run1+Run2)
WP4 Policy Needs and Policy Analysis for Influencing Energy
Demand Arising from New Societal Trends
WP8Communication&Dissemination
WP1ProjectManagement
Focus Topics: inform and carry out model improvements
which are included in Transition Pathways (Run 2)
Overview of NewTRENDs’ nine Work Packages
– and interlinkages between them

7. © Fraunhofer ISI
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NewTRENDs’ empirical research design
– an iterative multi-method approach
EE1Principle
implemented
inpolicymaking
Reference Development
• Based on latest runs with
PRIMES (under preparation)
Continuous (“Linear“)
Societal Trends
Disruptive (Non-“Linear“)
Societal Trends
Removing Barriers to EE
• Techno-economic scenario
• Realisation of techno-economic
potentials
• Implies policies to realise the
EE1 principle
EE1PrincipleNOT
implemented
inpolicymaking
New Societal Trends Scenario
• New Societal Trends rather lead to
increase in energy demand
• If combined with the Removing Barriers
scenario, the impact of techno-economic
improvements of EE could be largely
reduced
New Societal Trends Energy
Efficiency Vision Scenario
• New Societal Trends rather lead to decrease
in energy demand
• If combined with the Removing Barriers
scenario, the impact of techno-economic
improvements of EE could be largely
enhanced through the New Societal Trends
• Implies policies to realise the EE1 principle

8. © Fraunhofer ISI
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NewTRENDs’ empirical research design
– an iterative multi-method approach
EE1Principle
implemented
inpolicymaking
Reference Development
• Based on latest runs with
PRIMES (under preparation)
Continuous (“Linear“)
Societal Trends
Disruptive (Non-“Linear“)
Societal Trends
Removing Barriers to EE
• Techno-economic scenario
• Realisation of techno-economic
potentials
• Implies policies to realise the
EE1 principle
EE1PrincipleNOT
implemented
inpolicymaking
New Societal Trends Scenario
• New Societal Trends rather lead to
increase in energy demand
• If combined with the Removing Barriers
scenario, the impact of techno-economic
improvements of EE could be largely
reduced
New Societal Trends Energy
Efficiency Vision Scenario
• New Societal Trends rather lead to decrease
in energy demand
• If combined with the Removing Barriers
scenario, the impact of techno-economic
improvements of EE could be largely
enhanced through the New Societal Trends
• Implies policies to realise the EE1 principle

9. © Fraunhofer ISI
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NewTRENDs’ empirical research design
– an iterative multi-method approach
Scenario run 1 (see Task 3.1)
“demand models“ as they are
Gap analysis for model structures
and empirical data (Task 3.2)
• Invert model
• FORECAST Appliances
• PRIMES
Detailed analysis and model
adaptations for important
relevant New Societal Trends
• Prosumers (see WP5)
• Circular economy /digitalisation (see WP6)
• Shared economy (see WP7)
Scenario run 2 (see Task 3.1)
“enhanced demand models“
EE1Principle
implemented
inpolicymaking
Reference Development
• Based on latest runs with
PRIMES (under preparation)
Continuous (“Linear“)
Societal Trends
Disruptive (Non-“Linear“)
Societal Trends
Removing Barriers to EE
• Techno-economic scenario
• Realisation of techno-economic
potentials
• Implies policies to realise the
EE1 principle
EE1PrincipleNOT
implemented
inpolicymaking
New Societal Trends Scenario
• New Societal Trends rather lead to
increase in energy demand
• If combined with the Removing Barriers
scenario, the impact of techno-economic
improvements of EE could be largely
reduced
New Societal Trends Energy
Efficiency Vision Scenario
• New Societal Trends rather lead to decrease
in energy demand
• If combined with the Removing Barriers
scenario, the impact of techno-economic
improvements of EE could be largely
enhanced through the New Societal Trends
• Implies policies to realise the EE1 principle
EE1Principle
implemented
inpolicymaking
Reference Development
• Based on latest runs with
PRIMES (under preparation)
Continuous (“Linear“)
Societal Trends
Disruptive (Non-“Linear“)
Societal Trends
Removing Barriers to EE
• Techno-economic scenario
• Realisation of techno-economic
potentials
• Implies policies to realise the
EE1 principle
EE1PrincipleNOT
implemented
inpolicymaking
New Societal Trends Scenario
• New Societal Trends rather lead to
increase in energy demand
• If combined with the Removing Barriers
scenario, the impact of techno-economic
improvements of EE could be largely
reduced
New Societal Trends Energy
Efficiency Vision Scenario
• New Societal Trends rather lead to decrease
in energy demand
• If combined with the Removing Barriers
scenario, the impact of techno-economic
improvements of EE could be largely
enhanced through the New Societal Trends
• Implies policies to realise the EE1 principle

10. © Fraunhofer ISI
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off
Kicking
New
TRENDs!
2020