Presentation at CeDEM Asia 2014

1. Internet growth and government
performance in an authoritarian context
A longitudinal study of the first-level
administrative divisions in China (1997-2012)
Qinfeng Zhu
Dr. Marko M. Skoric
Dr. Tai-Quan Peng

2. Internet penetration rate (1997-2012):

3. Internet penetration rate 1997-2012:
Censorship-“Golden
Shield Project”
launched
“Golden Shield
Project” completed
Started
“occupy” Weibo
60,064 gov
Weibo accounts
Social Media Use (SNS,
microblogs, blogs, online
forum): 35% 50% (CNNIC)
e-gov: 0.54
e-part: 0.21
e-gov: 0.42
e-part: 0.07 (UN
)
# gov.cn: 323 52,889
e-polling;
e-petition, mayor box;
gov chat, citizen forum;
…
“Gov Online
Project” started
News consumption:
38% 77% (CNNIC)

4. Internet growth brought about:
Citizen engagement
- Amplifying discontent and social tension (e.g., Hassid, 2012)
- Citizen empowerment-addressing social and political issues,
pressuring government to perform (e.g., Hassid, 2012;
MacKinnon, 2012; Yang, 2014)
- Restrained, channeled, and tamed (e.g., Hassid, 2012; King, Pan,
& Roberts, 2013; Yang, 2014)
Government leveraging the Internet
- Service delivery (e.g., Jiang & Xu, 2009; Schlæger & Jiang,
2014)
- Surveillance (e.g., Jiang & Xu, 2009; Schlæger & Jiang, 2014)
- Government-led/institutionalization of citizen
participation/deliberation (e.g., Åström et al., 2012, Jiang & Xu,
2009; Jiang, 2010)

5. Objective:
The co-evolution of the Internet and institutions of governance in
the context of non-democratic political systems
What is the relationship between Internet growth and public service
delivery over time in China?
Research question:

6. Method:
Aggregate data: 31 first-level administrative divisions, 1997-2013
IV: Internet growth- Internet penetration rate (CNNIC)
DV: Public service delivery- access to tap water, gas, public
transportation, paved roads, city sanitation, street lights, education,
public health (China Statistical Yearbooks, 1998-2013)
CV: GDP per capita
Analysis: Hierarchical linear modeling (administrative divisions as
the level-2 variable)

7. Results:

8. Low
Relatively Low
Relatively High
High
Smaller effect for divisions with initially higher level of public service
delivery:

9. Effects during different time periods:
2007-2012
2003-2006
1997-2002

10. Discussion:
The role of ICTs in an authoritarian context:
Authoritarian resilience?
Institutional change?
A counterpoint to Fukuyama's end of history argument: can a large,
modern, well-functioning state be something other than a liberal
democracy?
“dialectic of control”
- State control: coercive and repressive, but also persuasive and productive
- Restrained citizen empowerment
- Incorporate public opinion into policy-makers’ decision making
- Develop some citizenship rights
- Cultivate a participatory citizenry to a certain extent
- Better governance
- Regime legitimacy, power persistence

11. Thank you!