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Design and Implementation
                       of
              Technology Strategy:
              S-Curve & Disruption



                     Lecture by:
                             by:
             Djadja.Sardjana@gmail.com

1-Jul-09
  Jul-                 IMT MM-Biztel
                           MM-           1
Design and Implementation
                         of
                Technology Strategy:
           Innovation S-Curve & Disruption
           Innovation Diffusion
                  3M58




           Definition, Phase and Stage

1-Jul-09
  Jul-                            IMT MM-Biztel
                                      MM-         2
What is S-Curve?
                       S-
   Once innovation occurs, innovations may be spread
   from the innovator to other individuals and groups.
   This process has been proposed that the life cycle of
   innovations can be described using the ''s-curve'' or
                                              s curve
   diffusion curve. The s-curve maps growth of revenue
             curve.       s-
   or productivity against time. The s-curve derives from
                                      s-
   an assumption that new products are likely to have
   "product Life". i.e. a start-up phase, a rapid increase
                          start-
   in revenue and eventual decline. In fact the great
   majority of innovations never get off the bottom of the
   curve, and never produce normal returns...
   (Wikipedia)
7/1/2009                                                3
The S-Curve of Innovation
                                             S-

                                                                      Physical limit

                                         New           Technology    Mature
      Technology performance parameter




                                         Invention     Improvement   Technology
                                         Period        Period        Period


                                         Embryonic   Growth          Maturity      Aging




                                                              Time

7/1/2009                                                                                   4
The S-Curve Phase
               S-




7/1/2009                       5
The S-Curve Stage
               S-




7/1/2009                       6
Technology life cycle and
                                product/process life cycle
                                                             Technology
                                                             life cycle

                                          Product
           Rate of innovation



                                          innovation

                                                               Process
                                                               innovation




                                Technological     Dominant    Aging technology
                                discontinuity     design      (substitution and
                                (turbulence)                  discontinuity)
7/1/2009                                                                          7
Innovation Adoption Life Cycle
    Innovators




                                                                  Laggards
                 Adopters




                                                       Majority
                            Majority




                                                       Late
                            Early
                 Early




1-Jul-09
  Jul-                                 IMT MM-Biztel
                                           MM-                               8
Innovation and Marketplace




7/1/2009                                9
Science Push and Market Pull


      Opportunities                     Opportunities
       for science                       for market
           push                              pull


•   Scientific discoveries   • Market demand
•   Applied knowledge        • Proliferation of application
•   Recognised needs           areas
•   Intellectual capital     • Recognised needs
                             • Opportunities for increased:
                               profitability, quality, productivity




7/1/2009                                                              10
Invention and Innovation
Invention
    • Creation of a new idea for a product, process or service
Innovation
    • A business process which brings inventions to commercial
      use
    • Requires the integration of inventions and existing
      technologies to bring innovations to the marketplace

Idea generation + problem solving      Invention
Invention + implementation             Innovation
Innovation + diffusion                Economic value



                                                                 11
Components of an innovation cycle
                             May never be developed into
                                marketable products

                                    Invention




    Has no
instantaneous   Scientific                                               Adopting
  commercial    Discovery                                  Innovation    invention
     value

                                      Effect



                                     Market
                                                                   Source: Tarek Khalil
                               Buying or ignoring
                     Market Ignoring   Disruptive Innovation
                                 the innovation

                                                                                          12
Disruptive Innovation




                http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_innovation

7/1/2009                                                             13
Disruptive Innovation on Graph




                      http://sephskerritt.com/2008/06/30/

7/1/2009                                                    14
S-Curve & Disruptive Innovation




                      http://www.emeraldinsight.com
7/1/2009                                              15
Disruptive Innovation:
           Threat to Existing Market




                        The Innovator's Solution, Christensen

7/1/2009                                                        16
Disruptive Innovation: Examples




                      The Innovator's Solution, Christensen

7/1/2009                                                 17
Design and Implementation
                     of
            Technology Strategy:
       Innovation S-Curve & Disruption
           Innovation of MJ
                6M38




           Innovation Strategic Action

1-Jul-09
  Jul-                        IMT MM-Biztel
                                  MM-         18
From Industrial Economy to
              Innovation Economy
     Industrial Economy                                       Innovation Economy
                                    Reduced Cost
 Cost saving through vertical                             Flexibility through outsourcing
 integration
 Customer visits location/          Role of content       Choice by on-line description
                                                                     on-
 inspect standardized goods                               and customized goods
 Clear distinction between        Blurred Boundaries      All firms become content firms
 producers of content
 Market infrastructure                                    Market infrastructure
 constrains quick changes       Accelerated Competition
                                                          enables quick changes
 Limited choices through                                  Many choices through
 predetermined channels             Shift in Power
                                                          multiple channels
 Business based on integrated                             Business based on differentiated
 value network                   New Business Model       content and added value
 Physical resources and                                   Intangible resources and
 decreasing returns                                       increasing returns
                                  Increasing Returns




7/1/2009                                                                              19
From Industrial Economy to
               Innovation Economy
                              Sales                    Customer
                           “Push” Focus    Brand      “Pull” Focus
                                           Capital

                                    Production             Value Innovation
                                      Focus      Brand          Focus
                                                 Capital
                                         High (WIP,         Low (Direct Delivery
                                      Finished Goods) Brand to Customer)
                                                      Capital
                                           High (Ownership           Low
                                            Of Production) Brand (Outsourcing)
                                                           Capital




Source: Davenport et.al. (2006). Strategic Management in the Innovation Economy, pg. 63.

7/1/2009                                                                                   20
Organization Challenge
              Here                                      Ok




                                         Here




       CEOs
        10°

                     Managers
                       60°




                                                Staff
                                                360°
1-Jul-09
  Jul-                   IMT MM-Biztel
                             MM-                             21
Innovation Strategy Foundations
                                              Strength of
                        Weakness of
                                              the
                        the company
                                              company
              Opportunity       Possible
                                           Starting point
                  offered     restrictions
                                            of strategy
                              for strategy
                   by the   implementation
                                               work
             environment

                                                 Possible
           Threat caused      Possible
                                               restrictions
                                crisis
                   by the     elements
                                               for strategy
            environment                      implementation




  In simplest strategy is organization’s approach to adjust
  with the changes in environment – proactively or reactively
1-Jul-09
  Jul-                       IMT MM-Biztel
                                 MM-                          22
Innovation Strategy Concept
                                           Era for                   Networking era
    Number of Elements
                                           Organizational
    in Strategic Planning                  Structure
                                                                     Kotter:
                                                                     Leading Change
                                           Porter:                   Norton, Kaplan:
                                           Competitive               Strategic Maps
                                           Advantage                 Network Analysis
                        Adjustment era                               Structure
                                           Core Competences
                        Minzberg,                                    System
                                           Resource Strategies
                        Quinn:                                       Culture
                                           Competence Management
                        Strategy cannot                              Strategic Maps
                                           Business Intelligence
                        be planned         Competitor Intelligence
                        formally           Venturing

                        Generic Strategies
                        Scenario Planning
                        Portfolio Analysis
                        Competitor Analysis
    Planning era        Industry Analysis
    H. Igor Ansoff:
    Formal Strategic Planning


 1960              1970              1980                 1990        2000              2010
1-Jul-09
  Jul-                                    IMT MM-Biztel
                                              MM-                                          23
Strategies at different stages




7/1/2009                                    24
Internal Disruptive Innovation




                            http://cioinnervoice.wordpress.com/
7/1/2009                                                          25
S-Curve Habit Cycle




                          http://3.bp.blogspot.com/
7/1/2009                                              26
Lesson Learned: Cisco's Merger &
           Acquisition Innovation Strategy highly
                                         Have
                                                                       centralized
                             7                                         marketing and
                                                                       customer contact.
 Plug the acquisition                                          1
 into a powerful
 market access
 infrastructure,                                                            Decentralize
 releasing untapped                                                         on research
 potential.                                                                 and upstream
                                                                            parts of
                                                                            product
                                                                            development.
             6                                                         2


Emphasis on              5
speed.                                                             3
                                                                            Identify
                                                                            leaders in
                                                                            areas where
                                                                            Cisco does not
                 Develop repeatable
                 process of acquisition   4   Assess
                                              multiple deals
                                                                            have a strong
                                                                            enough
                 evaluation, due                                            presence
                 diligence, and               through the
                 integration                  Bus-Dev
                                              function.
Lesson Learned:
         Cisco Acquisitions (Samples)
                                                             SMB
                                                      2000         1995
                             1996
                                            2004

                    Service Provider                               1998
             2001
  1998                                                2003
                                     1998
                           1997
                                  1999         2005
              Enterprise
1999




           1993     1994
 2005
RESULT
                    Aligning Innovation
                    With The Life Cycle
Experimental Innovation :
 Disruptive Innovation :
Makes surface particularly in that press, because markets appear
 Gets attention, modifications the improve customer’s experience
of established products or processes. source of wealth.
 as if from nowhere, creating a massive
Marketing Innovation : :
 Application Innovation
Improves customers touchinginto new markets to marketing
 Takes existing technologies processes, be they
communications or consumer transactions
 serve new purposes.
BusinessInnovation :
 Product Model Innovation :
Reframes an established in established markets to the next or a
 Takes established offers value proposition to the customer level
company’s established role in the value chain or both.
 Process Innovation :
Structural Innovation :
 Makes processes for established offers in established markets
Capitalizes on disruption to restructure industry relationships.
 more effective or efficient.
Design and Implementation
                     of
            Technology Strategy:
       Innovation S-Curve & Disruption
           Think out the box
                1M41




           Conclusion & Final Words

1-Jul-09
  Jul-                         IMT MM-Biztel
                                   MM-         30

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IMT Lecture: Innovation S Curve+ Disruptive. M M Biztel 01 Jul09.97 03

  • 1. Design and Implementation of Technology Strategy: S-Curve & Disruption Lecture by: by: Djadja.Sardjana@gmail.com 1-Jul-09 Jul- IMT MM-Biztel MM- 1
  • 2. Design and Implementation of Technology Strategy: Innovation S-Curve & Disruption Innovation Diffusion 3M58 Definition, Phase and Stage 1-Jul-09 Jul- IMT MM-Biztel MM- 2
  • 3. What is S-Curve? S- Once innovation occurs, innovations may be spread from the innovator to other individuals and groups. This process has been proposed that the life cycle of innovations can be described using the ''s-curve'' or s curve diffusion curve. The s-curve maps growth of revenue curve. s- or productivity against time. The s-curve derives from s- an assumption that new products are likely to have "product Life". i.e. a start-up phase, a rapid increase start- in revenue and eventual decline. In fact the great majority of innovations never get off the bottom of the curve, and never produce normal returns... (Wikipedia) 7/1/2009 3
  • 4. The S-Curve of Innovation S- Physical limit New Technology Mature Technology performance parameter Invention Improvement Technology Period Period Period Embryonic Growth Maturity Aging Time 7/1/2009 4
  • 5. The S-Curve Phase S- 7/1/2009 5
  • 6. The S-Curve Stage S- 7/1/2009 6
  • 7. Technology life cycle and product/process life cycle Technology life cycle Product Rate of innovation innovation Process innovation Technological Dominant Aging technology discontinuity design (substitution and (turbulence) discontinuity) 7/1/2009 7
  • 8. Innovation Adoption Life Cycle Innovators Laggards Adopters Majority Majority Late Early Early 1-Jul-09 Jul- IMT MM-Biztel MM- 8
  • 10. Science Push and Market Pull Opportunities Opportunities for science for market push pull • Scientific discoveries • Market demand • Applied knowledge • Proliferation of application • Recognised needs areas • Intellectual capital • Recognised needs • Opportunities for increased: profitability, quality, productivity 7/1/2009 10
  • 11. Invention and Innovation Invention • Creation of a new idea for a product, process or service Innovation • A business process which brings inventions to commercial use • Requires the integration of inventions and existing technologies to bring innovations to the marketplace Idea generation + problem solving Invention Invention + implementation Innovation Innovation + diffusion Economic value 11
  • 12. Components of an innovation cycle May never be developed into marketable products Invention Has no instantaneous Scientific Adopting commercial Discovery Innovation invention value Effect Market Source: Tarek Khalil Buying or ignoring Market Ignoring Disruptive Innovation the innovation 12
  • 13. Disruptive Innovation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_innovation 7/1/2009 13
  • 14. Disruptive Innovation on Graph http://sephskerritt.com/2008/06/30/ 7/1/2009 14
  • 15. S-Curve & Disruptive Innovation http://www.emeraldinsight.com 7/1/2009 15
  • 16. Disruptive Innovation: Threat to Existing Market The Innovator's Solution, Christensen 7/1/2009 16
  • 17. Disruptive Innovation: Examples The Innovator's Solution, Christensen 7/1/2009 17
  • 18. Design and Implementation of Technology Strategy: Innovation S-Curve & Disruption Innovation of MJ 6M38 Innovation Strategic Action 1-Jul-09 Jul- IMT MM-Biztel MM- 18
  • 19. From Industrial Economy to Innovation Economy Industrial Economy Innovation Economy Reduced Cost Cost saving through vertical Flexibility through outsourcing integration Customer visits location/ Role of content Choice by on-line description on- inspect standardized goods and customized goods Clear distinction between Blurred Boundaries All firms become content firms producers of content Market infrastructure Market infrastructure constrains quick changes Accelerated Competition enables quick changes Limited choices through Many choices through predetermined channels Shift in Power multiple channels Business based on integrated Business based on differentiated value network New Business Model content and added value Physical resources and Intangible resources and decreasing returns increasing returns Increasing Returns 7/1/2009 19
  • 20. From Industrial Economy to Innovation Economy Sales Customer “Push” Focus Brand “Pull” Focus Capital Production Value Innovation Focus Brand Focus Capital High (WIP, Low (Direct Delivery Finished Goods) Brand to Customer) Capital High (Ownership Low Of Production) Brand (Outsourcing) Capital Source: Davenport et.al. (2006). Strategic Management in the Innovation Economy, pg. 63. 7/1/2009 20
  • 21. Organization Challenge Here Ok Here CEOs 10° Managers 60° Staff 360° 1-Jul-09 Jul- IMT MM-Biztel MM- 21
  • 22. Innovation Strategy Foundations Strength of Weakness of the the company company Opportunity Possible Starting point offered restrictions of strategy for strategy by the implementation work environment Possible Threat caused Possible restrictions crisis by the elements for strategy environment implementation In simplest strategy is organization’s approach to adjust with the changes in environment – proactively or reactively 1-Jul-09 Jul- IMT MM-Biztel MM- 22
  • 23. Innovation Strategy Concept Era for Networking era Number of Elements Organizational in Strategic Planning Structure Kotter: Leading Change Porter: Norton, Kaplan: Competitive Strategic Maps Advantage Network Analysis Adjustment era Structure Core Competences Minzberg, System Resource Strategies Quinn: Culture Competence Management Strategy cannot Strategic Maps Business Intelligence be planned Competitor Intelligence formally Venturing Generic Strategies Scenario Planning Portfolio Analysis Competitor Analysis Planning era Industry Analysis H. Igor Ansoff: Formal Strategic Planning 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1-Jul-09 Jul- IMT MM-Biztel MM- 23
  • 24. Strategies at different stages 7/1/2009 24
  • 25. Internal Disruptive Innovation http://cioinnervoice.wordpress.com/ 7/1/2009 25
  • 26. S-Curve Habit Cycle http://3.bp.blogspot.com/ 7/1/2009 26
  • 27. Lesson Learned: Cisco's Merger & Acquisition Innovation Strategy highly Have centralized 7 marketing and customer contact. Plug the acquisition 1 into a powerful market access infrastructure, Decentralize releasing untapped on research potential. and upstream parts of product development. 6 2 Emphasis on 5 speed. 3 Identify leaders in areas where Cisco does not Develop repeatable process of acquisition 4 Assess multiple deals have a strong enough evaluation, due presence diligence, and through the integration Bus-Dev function.
  • 28. Lesson Learned: Cisco Acquisitions (Samples) SMB 2000 1995 1996 2004 Service Provider 1998 2001 1998 2003 1998 1997 1999 2005 Enterprise 1999 1993 1994 2005
  • 29. RESULT Aligning Innovation With The Life Cycle Experimental Innovation : Disruptive Innovation : Makes surface particularly in that press, because markets appear Gets attention, modifications the improve customer’s experience of established products or processes. source of wealth. as if from nowhere, creating a massive Marketing Innovation : : Application Innovation Improves customers touchinginto new markets to marketing Takes existing technologies processes, be they communications or consumer transactions serve new purposes. BusinessInnovation : Product Model Innovation : Reframes an established in established markets to the next or a Takes established offers value proposition to the customer level company’s established role in the value chain or both. Process Innovation : Structural Innovation : Makes processes for established offers in established markets Capitalizes on disruption to restructure industry relationships. more effective or efficient.
  • 30. Design and Implementation of Technology Strategy: Innovation S-Curve & Disruption Think out the box 1M41 Conclusion & Final Words 1-Jul-09 Jul- IMT MM-Biztel MM- 30