Lake Michigan and outdoor recreation are enjoyable aspects of summers in Chicago, but it can come with risk of potential E. coli in Lake Michigan or West Nile Virus from mosquitos. This summer, the City of Chicago launched two new predictive analytics projects to forecasts the risks and to proactively limit these risks. Members of the research team, Gene Leynes and Nick Lucius discuss the projects and how they’re being used as part of city operations.

1. SUMMERTIME DATA
NEW PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS PROJECTS

2. WEST NILE VIRUS
CURTAILING VECTOR-BORN DISEASES

3. WEST NILE VIRUS
• Between 5 and 884 human
cases reported annually in
Illinois since 2002
• 2,371 confirmed human
infections since 2002
• Most people who become
infected with West Nile virus
never develop any symptoms
• About 1 in 5 people who are
infected will develop flu like
symptoms
• Less than 1% of people who
are infected will develop a
serious neurologic illness

4. WNV CYCLE
Mostly contained to birds
and mosquitoes
Human and equine infections
are essentially spillover

5. PREVENTION
• The Chicago Department of Public Health (CDPH)
uses a multi-pronged approach to fight the spread
of WNV
– Larvicide in stormwater drains
– DNA tests of mosquitoes (pictured)
– Spraying when WNV is present

6. DNA MONITORING
• At any given time there are 60+ traps in
Chicago collecting (mostly) Culex Pipiens
and Culex Restuans mosquitoes
• The traps are collected twice / week
• Batches of up to 50 mosquitoes are DNA
tested
• The data is published on
https://data.cityofchicago.org/
• The results and model predictions are
displayed in WindyGrid

7. SEASONAL MODEL
• We use a
generalized linear
mixed-effects
model
• Incorporates
season and
regional bias
• Predicts likelihood
of WNV one week
in advance

8. WE WERE ABLE TO IDENTIFY
WNV ONE WEEK IN ADVANCE
IN OUT OF SAMPLE DATA 78%
OF THE TIME, AND OUR
PREDICTION WAS CORRECT
65% OF THE TIME

10. CLEAR WATER
FORECASTING CHICAGO’S WATER QUALITY

12. CHICAGO BEACHES
• More than 20 million visitors
• About 150 water quality exceedances
• Traditional tests, rapid tests, and predictive
analytics

13. ACCURATE PREDICTIONS
CAN PREVENT ILLNESS,
AND SAVE GOVERNMENTS
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS.

14. CIVIC COLLABORATION
DePaul Student Interns ChiHackNight

16. • Rapid testing of
volatile beaches
• Strategic selection of
predictor beaches
• chicago.github.io/clear
-water
Innovative Science

17. MODEL EVALUATION
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Advisories Issued
BeachDays
Benchmark
Hybrid Method

18. MODEL EVALUATION
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Hit Rate
Percent
Benchmark
New Model

19. WATER QUALITY
ADVISORIES ISSUED WITH
3 TIMES MORE ACCURACY
THEN PREVIOUS MODEL

21. D
Work with civic technology
innovators to develop creative
solutions to city challenges

22. Total hours dedicated to this project through
volunteers, Chi Hack Night, and students.
1,000 HOURS

23. GITHUB PUNCH CARD

24. C
Leverage data and new technology to
make government more efficient,
effective, and open

25. OPENGRID 1.4.0
West Nile Virus project required the team to create
new maps for the team.Those changes were part of
OpenGrid 1.4.0 as a result, including the ability to
create “bubble maps”, static links to maps, and
more.
http://bit.ly/2vjJy2M

26. THANK YOU
Contact Info:
Websites:Gene Leynes
Nick Lucius
datascience@cityofchicago.org
chicago.github.io/clear-water
github.com/clear-water
github.com/west-nile-virus-predictions
data.cityofchicago.org