Presentation by Joel Kotkin Presidential Fellow, Chapman University, Senior Consultant Praxis Strategy Group National Conference on Corporate Community Investment Business Civic Leadership Center, US Chamber of Commerce. Anaheim, CA April 29, 2009

1. Back to Basics: After the Bubble and Beyond Presentation by Joel Kotkin Presidential Fellow, Chapman University National Conference on Corporate Community Investment Business Civic Leadership Center, US Chamber of Commerce. Anaheim, CA April 29, 2009

4. Families as History’s Bedrock “… the good news from the recovered history of the family: This smallest and seemingly most fragile of institutions is proving itself to be mankind’s bedrock as well as its fault line .” --- historian Steven Ozment

5. The Cosmopolitan City The miracle of toleration was to be found, “wherever the community of trade convened.” French historian Fernand Braudel on Venice, Antwerp, Amsterdam and London in the early Modern Period

6. “ Attacks on people’s property remove the incentive to acquire and gain property” Ibn Khaldun 14 th Century Arab historian

7. Beyond elitism: Jane Jacobs on the proper role of an urban economy “ A metropolitan economy, if it is working well, is constantly transforming many poor people into middle class people ...greenhorns into competent citizens... Cities don’t lure the middle class, they create it”

11. US : Forgetting the Basics Average Public Capital Value and U.S. Population Growth 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 1960 1970 1980 1990 1999 0 50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000 300,000,000 Percent "Core Infrastructure" Capital Value Growth (scale left) US Population (scale right) Sources: Demographia (2006) and Calvert-Henderson (2006)

12. Class Inequality: One result of fading infrastructure spending The top decile income share, 1917 - 2002

14. Long Term Demographics— The Recent Past Annual Average Population Growth, 1997-2007 Source: U.S. Census International Database

15. Long Term Demographics— The Advanced Countries Projected Population Growth, 2007-2050 Source: U.S. Census International Database

16. Getting Older Slower Population Over 65 Source: U.S. Census International Database

18. The Ephemeral City: The Future of the Core? “ a bazaar, a great gallery of shops and places of concourse and rendezvous.” H.G. Wells — description of urban centers in the future

20. Cities without Children Percent Less than 18 Years, Select Major U.S. Cities

21. Domestic Migration Rate vs. Immigration Rate 2000-2005 Source: U.S. Census Population Estimates Program

22. Net Domestic Migration Average Annual Rate, 1990-1999 & 2000-2007

23. Source: Praxis Strategy Group Analysis of U.S. Census American Community Survey Public Use Micro data Files

24. Source: U.S. Census Population Estimates compiled by Demographia.com

25. Growth in Nation’s Employment Centers Growth in Total Employment, 2000-2007 Source: Praxis Strategy Group analysis of BLS CES Data, Top 10 Largest Locations

26. Growth in Nation’s Employment Centers Growth in Professional & Business Service Employment, 2000-2007 Source: Michael Shires analysis of BLS CES Data, Top 10 Largest Locations

27. Bubble Trouble

28. Affordability Index Between Leading Dynamic Regions Source: National Association of Homebuilders Housing Opportunity Index, Q2 2007 (Share of homes affordable for median family income)

29. Home Prices vs. Pay Ratio of Home Price Growth vs. Annual Average Pay Growth, 2001 - 2005

31. U.S. Population in Urban, Suburban, & Rural Areas People (millions) 1950-1999 Millions

32. Growth to the Periphery Share of total Population growth Metro regions of more than 1,000,000 population, 2000 - 2006 Source: U.S. Census Population Estimates Program, Compiled by Demographia.com

33. Where Americans Would Like To Live Fannie Mae, 1998

35. Jobs Head out Source: Edward Glaeser, Matthew Kahn and Chenghuan Chu, “Job Sprawl: Employment in US Metropolitan Areas”, Brookings Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy, May 2001 Percentage of Metropolitan area employment

36. National Office Construction Sq. Ft. x Millions Source: cbre

37. Portland Job Growth in Periphery Source: Demographia.com, Derived from US Bureau of Labor Statistics and Portland Alliance data

42. Total Annual Greenhouse Emissions By Dwelling Type Tonnes CO2/Person/Year Tonnes CO2/Dwelling/Year Institute of Public Affairs

43. 1960 - 2000 Decennial Census, 2006 American Community Survey Working at Home Number working from home, 1970 - 2006

44. The Valencia, California, Survey 2001 Would you take a pay cut to work in the immediate area where you live? 50% of workers said they would take a 20% pay cut to a take a job in their local area. Source: The Newhall Land Company

48. Education Is a Key Part of the Upward Mobility Engine Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Education attained Median weekly earnings in 2005 Unemployment rate in 2005 (Dollars) (Percent) Some high-school, no diploma 409 7.6 High-school graduate 583 4.7 Some college, no degree 653 4.2 Associate degree 699 3.3 Bachelor's degree 937 2.6 Master's degree 1,129 2.1 Professional degree 1,370 1.1 Doctoral degree $1,421 1.6

49. Manufacturing Employment by Skill Group, 1983 - 2002 Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, Current Population Survey Analysis by Richard Deitz, New York Federal Reserve Bank

50. “ We need more machinists and less poets”…Delore Zimmerman, Praxis Strategy Group

52. Questions and Comment