Grains World Markets And Trade February 2010

United States
Department of

Grain:
Agriculture
Foreign
Agricultural
Service
Circular Series
FG 02-10
February 2010
World Markets and Trade

Barley: A Decade of Change & Export Redistribution
1999/00 2009/10
1.5 MMT
Exports

10 MMT
Exports

EU Russia & Ukraine Other

Once upon a time (just ten years ago), the EU dominated much of the international barley
market, particularly in North Africa and the Middle East. Competitors, such as Australia and
Canada, faced the EU’s comparative freight and logistical advantages (there were also small
erratic suppliers, such as Syria and Turkey). The EU support programs guaranteed high
prices and stimulated production, while export subsidy programs helped to ensure that EU
barley had a competitive price advantage against other countries.

However, it is all different now. Global barley trade dynamics have changed dramatically
with the emergence of low-cost supplies and increased competition from Russia and Ukraine,
which also happen to be competitive regional exporters that can match the EU’s comparative
freight and logistical advantages. EU policies and programs have reduced market and
support prices, stimulated domestic use, and de-emphasized export subsidies as a market-
clearing mechanism. Recent regulation changes will soon eliminate intervention support for
barley, which could cause some acreage to shift to more profitable crops, and further reduce
exportable supplies.

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board - USDA

TABLE OF CONTENTS

World Markets and Trade: Commentary and Current Data
Wheat ................................................................................................................. 4
Rice .................................................................................................................... 8
Coarse Grains................................................................................................... 12

Historical Data Series for Selected Regions and Countries ............................ 31

Endnotes to Grain: World Markets and Trade ............................................... 50

The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution database
for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 9 a.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand
Estimates (WASDE) report is released. It is available on the FAS website
(http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/). This circular is released at 10:00 a.m. on the same day,
together with its downloadable data set.

Grain: World Markets and Trade, February 2010

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 2
Office of Global Analysis February 2010

All Grain Summary Comparison

Wheat Rice, Milled Corn

Marketing Year 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

Production

United States (Jun-May) 55.8 68.0 60.3 6.3 6.5 7.0 331.2 307.1 334.1

Other 554.6 614.7 617.1 428.0 440.8 429.2 460.7 484.4 463.8

World Total 610.5 682.7 677.4 434.4 447.3 436.3 791.9 791.5 797.8

Domestic Consumption


Other 584.6 599.1 612.2 422.4 429.6 430.4 509.2 514.7 525.1

World Total 613.2 633.4 644.4 426.5 433.7 434.5 770.9 773.7 807.4

Ending Stocks


Other 112.7 146.1 169.2 80.0 92.4 91.2 88.4 103.4 90.4

World Total 121.1 164.0 195.9 81.0 93.3 92.5 129.6 145.9 134.0

TY Imports


Other 110.6 136.1 118.4 27.6 26.1 28.1 99.4 81.2 82.3

World Total 113.6 139.5 121.6 28.2 26.8 28.9 99.9 81.5 82.6

TY Exports


Other 82.1 115.2 101.8 26.5 25.9 27.7 37.6 35.3 34.9

World Total 116.4 142.5 124.3 29.8 29.0 30.8 98.2 83.2 84.9

Note: Consumption in this table has not been adjusted for differences in marketing year imports and exports
and therefore differs from global totals shown elsewhere.

Marketing years for U.S. grains are: Wheat (Jun-May), Rice (Aug-Jul), Corn (Sep-Aug).
'Marketing Year' column is germane for U.S. wheat only.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

WHEAT: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
PRICES:
U.S. Weekly FOB Export Bids
300
Domestic: Prices for all classes of wheat
fell through the first week in February,
except for Hard Red Spring (HRS)
which was unchanged. Growing global 250
supplies more than offset a slight uptick

$/MT
in U.S. export sales. Soft and Hard Red
Winter showed the largest declines, of
$24 and $18/ton, respectively, while 200
Soft White fell $10/ton.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2009/10
150
Selected Exporters:

1
8
5

15
22
29
/6

3

7
/4
0

1
8

5
/2

/1
/2
/1
/1
/2

1/
1/

2/
12
11

1/
1/
1/
11
11
11

12
12
12
HRS HRW SRW SWW
• Argentina is raised 1.0 million
tons to 4.0 million on higher production and increased exportable supplies.

• Pakistan is halved to 500,000 tons based on reduced exports to Afghanistan.

• Turkey is up 300,000 tons to 2.6 million due to higher expected flour shipments to Iraq
and Indonesia.

Selected Importers:

• Afghanistan is raised 700,000 tons to 2.0 million as the pace of wheat flour shipments
from Kazakhstan remains brisk.

• Iran is cut 1.0 million to 3.5 million based on the slow pace of imports.

• Pakistan is halved to 500,000 due to increased domestic supplies and minimal imports to
date.

• Turkey is up 500,000 tons to 2.5 million based on the strong pace of trade, particularly
from Russia.

• Uzbekistan is increased 400,000 tons to 1.4 million on the strong pace of flour shipments
from Kazakhstan.

• United States is up 150,000 tons to 3.3 million because of expected feed-quality wheat
imports from Brazil and Europe.


4

World Wheat, Flour, and Products Trade
July/June Year, Thousand Metric Tons
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
Feb

none
TY Exports
Argentina 13,426 8,216 12,168 10,228 8,598 4,000
Australia 15,826 15,211 11,241 7,449 13,452 15,000
Canada 15,109 15,633 19,278 16,561 18,583 18,500
China 1,171 1,397 2,783 2,835 723 1,000
EU-27 14,745 15,701 13,816 12,271 25,318 19,000
Kazakhstan 3,039 3,817 8,089 8,181 5,701 7,500
Mexico 504 533 548 1,261 1,406 1,200
Russia 8,456 10,514 10,584 12,552 18,393 18,000
Turkey 2,235 3,208 2,200 1,763 2,342 2,600
Ukraine 4,403 6,461 3,366 1,236 13,037 9,000
Others 6,360 5,886 6,482 7,782 7,632 6,049
Subtotal 85,274 86,577 90,555 82,119 115,185 101,849
United States 28,552 27,252 25,041 34,328 27,295 22,500
World Total 113,826 113,829 115,596 116,447 142,480 124,349
none
TY Imports
Afghanistan 1,000 500 1,400 2,300 3,800 2,000
Algeria 5,358 5,476 4,874 5,904 6,359 5,300
Bangladesh 2,058 2,034 1,731 1,555 2,882 2,600
Brazil 5,009 5,823 7,704 7,136 6,367 6,500
Egypt 8,150 7,771 7,300 7,700 9,900 8,800
EU-27 7,061 6,758 5,137 6,942 7,740 6,500
Indonesia 4,661 4,981 5,596 5,224 5,423 5,500
Iran 200 1,105 700 200 9,300 3,500
Iraq 3,010 4,996 2,912 3,424 3,868 3,800
Israel 1,549 1,663 1,458 1,186 2,060 2,100
Japan 5,744 5,469 5,747 5,701 5,156 5,300
Korea, South 3,591 3,884 3,439 3,092 3,371 3,700
Libya 1,488 1,722 994 1,567 1,677 1,650
Mexico 3,717 3,549 3,610 3,136 3,341 3,100
Morocco 2,272 2,418 1,801 4,191 3,759 1,800
Nigeria 3,014 3,678 3,265 2,677 3,550 3,500
Peru 1,449 1,644 1,367 1,452 1,385 1,500
Philippines 2,593 2,954 2,754 2,266 3,201 3,000
Saudi Arabia 50 77 91 48 1,400 1,600
South Africa 1,407 1,242 885 1,333 1,500 1,500
Sudan 1,522 1,659 1,323 1,060 1,712 1,500
Syria 200 231 200 200 1,700 1,800
Turkey 372 64 1,778 2,192 3,577 2,500
Venezuela 1,504 1,691 1,765 1,498 1,500 1,525
Yemen 1,860 2,187 2,420 1,861 2,786 2,300
Others 39,463 35,270 39,999 36,728 38,742 35,515
Subtotal 108,302 108,846 110,250 110,573 136,056 118,390
Unaccounted 3,578 2,684 1,952 2,862 2,964 2,709
United States 1,946 2,299 3,394 3,012 3,460 3,250
World Total 113,826 113,829 115,596 116,447 142,480 124,349

TY=Trade Year, see Endnotes.


World Wheat Production, Consumption, and Stocks
Local Marketing Years, Thousand Metric Tons
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
Feb

none
Production
Argentina 16,100 14,600 16,100 18,000 9,000 9,000
Australia 21,905 25,173 10,822 13,569 20,939 22,500
Canada 24,796 25,748 25,265 20,054 28,611 26,500
China 91,952 97,445 108,466 109,298 112,464 114,500
Egypt 7,177 8,184 8,274 8,275 7,883 7,900
EU-27 146,886 132,356 124,870 120,133 151,080 138,218
India 72,150 68,640 69,350 75,810 78,570 80,580
Iran 14,568 14,308 14,500 15,000 10,000 12,000
Kazakhstan 9,950 11,200 13,450 16,450 12,550 17,000
Morocco 5,540 3,043 6,327 1,583 3,730 6,370
Pakistan 19,500 21,612 21,277 23,300 21,500 24,000
Russia 45,400 47,700 44,900 49,400 63,700 61,700
Turkey 18,500 18,500 17,500 15,500 16,800 17,800
Ukraine 17,500 18,700 14,000 13,900 25,900 20,900
Uzbekistan 5,250 5,800 5,850 6,200 6,000 6,200
Others 49,852 49,681 45,534 48,163 45,951 51,959
Subtotal 567,026 562,690 546,485 554,635 614,678 617,127
United States 58,698 57,243 49,217 55,821 68,016 60,314
World Total 625,724 619,933 595,702 610,456 682,694 677,441
none
Total Consumption
Algeria 7,550 7,750 7,850 8,050 8,450 8,750
Brazil 9,900 10,450 10,300 10,300 10,700 11,400
Canada 8,240 8,242 8,986 6,787 8,027 8,100
China 102,000 101,500 102,000 106,000 102,500 102,000
Egypt 14,200 14,800 15,450 15,950 16,550 17,050
EU-27 123,220 127,525 125,500 116,536 127,500 127,000
India 72,838 69,980 73,371 76,422 70,770 76,120
Iran 14,550 14,800 15,300 15,500 15,900 16,200
Kazakhstan 7,400 7,400 7,500 7,500 7,525 7,550
Morocco 6,600 6,800 7,150 7,450 7,550 7,650
Pakistan 19,600 20,900 21,900 22,400 22,800 23,300
Russia 37,400 38,400 36,400 37,700 38,900 41,200
Turkey 16,800 16,100 16,650 16,800 16,900 17,400
Ukraine 11,700 12,500 11,700 12,300 11,900 12,100
Uzbekistan 5,700 6,118 6,500 6,800 7,050 7,250
Others 116,044 122,532 121,066 118,116 126,063 129,128
Subtotal 575,664 591,379 584,643 588,367 605,459 613,430
United States 31,783 31,320 30,940 28,614 34,291 32,168
World Total 607,447 622,699 615,583 616,981 639,750 645,598
none
Ending Stocks
Canada 7,922 9,698 6,865 4,406 6,556 6,856
China 38,821 34,387 38,450 38,963 48,685 60,785
Egypt 2,861 4,006 4,120 4,120 5,343 4,983
EU-27 27,496 23,384 14,075 12,343 18,345 17,063
India 4,100 2,000 4,500 5,800 13,510 18,020
Iran 3,419 3,257 3,507 3,157 3,907 4,157
Russia 3,386 3,454 2,231 1,819 8,429 11,129
Others 47,537 51,744 41,432 42,138 41,371 46,173
Subtotal 135,542 131,930 115,180 112,746 146,146 169,166
United States 14,699 15,545 12,414 8,323 17,867 26,690
World Total 150,241 147,475 127,594 121,069 164,013 195,856


Regional Wheat Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks
Thousand Metric Tons

Feb
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

TY Imports none
North America 5,915 6,135 7,325 6,535 7,188 6,750
Central America 1,510 1,506 1,582 1,460 1,482 1,550
South America 10,526 12,304 13,979 13,143 12,746 12,890
European Union 7,061 6,758 5,137 6,942 7,740 6,500
Other Europe 1,464 1,457 1,480 1,923 1,690 1,675
Former Soviet Union - 12 4,910 5,487 5,958 6,021 6,544 5,500
Middle East 10,209 13,447 12,143 11,726 28,296 20,800
North Africa 18,347 18,650 16,402 21,734 23,467 19,050
Sub-Saharan Africa 12,086 13,174 11,735 10,371 13,363 13,395
East Asia 18,357 12,852 11,886 11,278 11,322 11,950
South Asia 5,655 4,812 10,944 8,270 10,713 6,215
Southeast Asia 11,429 11,923 12,437 11,405 12,328 12,500
Others 2,779 2,640 2,636 2,777 2,637 2,865
Total 110,248 111,145 113,644 113,585 139,516 121,640
Production none
North America 85,914 86,011 77,722 79,468 100,627 91,114
South America 25,336 22,572 21,022 24,835 18,523 17,928
European Union 146,886 132,356 124,870 120,133 151,080 138,218
Other Europe 5,435 4,196 4,313 4,405 4,693 4,465
Middle East 42,771 42,975 41,758 39,912 32,196 36,825
North Africa 17,166 15,178 18,576 13,948 14,588 19,395
East Asia 93,221 98,652 109,669 110,590 113,706 115,711
South Asia 96,326 96,034 95,881 105,075 103,870 111,100
Oceania 22,161 25,466 11,099 13,846 21,216 22,777
Others 131 151 141 156 161 181
Total 625,724 619,933 595,702 610,456 682,694 677,441
Domestic Consumption none
North America 46,023 45,662 46,126 40,901 48,318 46,418
South America 23,094 24,151 23,901 23,951 24,254 25,175
European Union 123,220 127,525 125,500 116,536 127,500 127,000
Other Europe 6,018 5,917 5,495 5,600 5,544 5,830
Middle East 49,690 50,423 51,308 50,519 53,260 53,665
North Africa 32,538 33,847 34,205 36,042 37,352 38,325
East Asia 114,117 114,116 113,938 117,556 114,118 114,170
South Asia 100,951 100,310 105,160 109,487 104,405 111,280
Southeast Asia 10,900 11,515 11,693 10,990 12,111 12,340
Oceania 6,916 7,484 8,545 7,394 7,699 8,025
Others 3,437 3,344 3,313 3,377 3,372 3,495
Total 605,525 617,117 618,563 613,225 633,376 644,366
Ending Stocks none
North America 22,997 25,555 19,693 13,111 24,740 33,913
South America 4,062 4,752 5,132 5,801 3,293 3,616
European Union 27,496 23,384 14,075 12,343 18,345 17,063
Other Europe 1,770 1,333 1,067 1,037 1,442 1,237
Middle East 12,600 13,520 12,041 10,648 12,221 13,919
North Africa 9,492 9,233 9,749 9,127 9,600 9,485
East Asia 41,220 36,606 40,838 41,781 51,519 63,395
South Asia 7,393 6,285 7,057 8,487 16,363 21,698
Southeast Asia 2,152 2,251 2,605 2,549 2,432 2,347
Oceania 6,848 9,544 4,159 3,841 3,301 3,818
Others 222 216 184 172 173 177
Total 150,241 147,475 127,594 121,069 164,013 195,856

NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on a trade year basis. All other data are reported
using local marketing years.


RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE

PRICES:
$/MT Recent Price Spreads Becoming
For most of this decade, the spread between Less Volatile
U.S. #2/4 quotes and Thai 100B quotes was 250
positive and moved rather slowly. Likewise,
200
the difference between Thai 100B quotes
and Vietnamese 5% quotes was mostly 150
positive and fairly small. This pattern 100
changed in 2008 when Thai quotes fell
below U.S. quotes, and the gap between 50
Thai and Vietnamese quotes ballooned. At 0
the same time, prices at all origins were
changing quickly and not always in the same -50

direction, creating volatility in the spread. -100
In the past few months, however, it seems
that this volatility has diminished as quotes -150

have tended to move in the same direction. -200
In addition, the U.S.-Thai spread has been
shrinking and is near zero. With the -250

completion of the Philippine tenders, there 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0
b-0 eb-0 eb-0 eb-0 eb-0 eb-0 eb-0 eb-0 eb-0 eb-0 eb-1
Fe F F F F F F F F F F
may be more stability in the Thai-Viet
spread, as well.
US-Thai Price Spread Thai-Viet Price Spread

TRADE CHANGES

Selected Exporters:

• Burma is down 200,000 tons to 800,000 in 2010 due to depleted stocks after 2009
exports reached the highest level in over 40 years.

• Egypt is up 150,000 tons to 600,000 in 2010 on the government announcement that
additional export licenses will be granted due to sufficient domestic supplies.

• Uruguay is raised 126,000 tons to a record 926,000 for 2009 and raised 108,000 tons to
742,000 for 2008 based on new trade data.

Selected Importers:

• South Africa is boosted 150,000 tons to 800,000 for 2009 on near-final trade data.

• Venezuela is doubled to 300,000 tons for 2010 on weather-related crop shortages.


8

World Rice Trade
January/December Year, Thousand Metric Tons
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
Feb

none
TY Exports
Argentina 348 487 436 408 600 550
Brazil 272 291 201 511 650 300
Burma 190 47 31 541 1,052 800
Cambodia 200 350 450 500 800 800
China 656 1,216 1,340 969 760 1,500
Egypt 1,095 958 1,209 750 500 600
EU-27 201 144 139 157 140 135
Guyana 182 250 210 210 250 220
India 4,687 4,537 6,301 3,383 2,000 2,000
Japan 200 200 200 200 200 200
Pakistan 3,032 3,579 2,696 3,000 3,000 3,800
Peru 5 10 20 17 90 90
Thailand 7,274 7,376 9,557 10,011 8,570 10,000
Uruguay 762 812 734 742 926 750
Vietnam 5,174 4,705 4,522 4,649 5,950 5,500
Others 815 876 809 430 441 450
Subtotal 25,093 25,838 28,855 26,478 25,929 27,695
United States 3,863 3,307 3,029 3,273 3,100 3,150
World Total 28,956 29,145 31,884 29,751 29,029 30,845
none
TY Imports
Bangladesh 785 531 1,570 1,658 150 500
Brazil 548 691 684 417 630 750
Canada 321 333 341 365 345 340
China 609 654 472 295 330 350
Cote d'Ivoire 850 750 980 800 800 860
Cuba 736 594 574 558 425 575
EU-27 1,089 1,221 1,342 1,520 1,350 1,350
Ghana 450 440 340 300 350 350
Guinea 221 200 240 150 150 330
Haiti 328 399 292 320 300 325
Hong Kong 347 309 348 399 395 400
Iran 1,200 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,700 1,700
Iraq 786 1,306 613 975 1,000 1,100
Japan 787 681 642 546 700 700
Malaysia 751 886 799 1,020 830 850
Mexico 553 586 609 578 610 600
Mozambique 350 330 410 300 350 350
Nigeria 1,777 1,600 1,550 1,600 1,900 1,600
Philippines 1,890 1,791 1,900 2,500 2,000 2,600
Saudi Arabia 1,357 958 961 1,360 1,370 1,400
Senegal 850 600 700 860 715 700
Singapore 375 350 393 320 300 350
South Africa 764 800 960 665 800 800
Vietnam 320 350 450 300 500 500
Yemen 250 250 338 325 325 325
Others 8,195 7,680 9,649 7,958 7,790 8,419
Subtotal 26,489 25,790 28,657 27,589 26,115 28,124
Unaccounted 2,048 2,722 2,532 1,511 2,214 1,986
United States 419 633 695 651 700 735
World Total 28,956 29,145 31,884 29,751 29,029 30,845


Note about dates: 2009/10 is calendar year 2010, 2008/09 is calendar year 2009, and so on.


World Rice Production, Consumption, and Stocks
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
Feb

none
Milled Production
Bangladesh 25,600 28,758 29,000 28,800 31,000 30,000
Brazil 8,996 7,874 7,695 8,199 8,569 7,820
Burma 9,570 10,440 10,600 10,730 10,150 10,730
Cambodia 2,627 3,771 3,946 4,238 4,520 4,630
China 125,363 126,414 127,200 130,224 134,330 137,000
Egypt 4,128 4,135 4,383 4,385 4,387 4,374
India 83,130 91,790 93,350 96,690 99,150 84,500
Indonesia 34,830 34,959 35,300 37,000 38,300 38,800
Japan 7,944 8,257 7,786 7,930 8,029 7,620
Korea, South 5,000 4,768 4,680 4,408 4,843 4,910
Nigeria 2,300 2,700 2,900 3,000 3,200 3,400
Pakistan 5,025 5,547 5,450 5,700 6,700 6,200
Philippines 9,425 9,821 9,775 10,479 10,753 10,200
Thailand 17,360 18,200 18,250 19,800 19,850 20,400
Vietnam 22,716 22,772 22,922 24,375 24,388 24,300
Others 30,347 31,257 31,275 32,083 32,625 34,364
Subtotal 394,361 411,463 414,512 428,041 440,794 429,248
United States 7,462 7,105 6,267 6,344 6,515 7,030
World Total 401,823 418,568 420,779 434,385 447,309 436,278
none
Consumption and Residual
Bangladesh 26,900 29,000 29,764 30,747 31,000 31,100
Brazil 9,074 8,460 7,925 8,254 8,529 8,600
Burma 10,300 10,400 10,670 10,249 9,550 9,850
Cambodia 2,777 3,571 3,646 3,788 3,770 3,880
China 130,300 128,000 127,200 127,450 129,000 133,500
Egypt 3,250 3,320 3,276 3,340 4,000 4,000
India 80,861 85,088 86,700 90,466 93,150 86,700
Indonesia 35,850 35,739 35,900 36,350 37,090 37,600
Iran 2,986 3,274 3,550 3,575 3,550 3,600
Japan 8,300 8,250 8,250 8,177 8,370 8,200
Korea, South 4,951 4,766 4,887 4,670 4,972 4,978
Nigeria 4,250 4,300 4,400 4,500 5,100 5,100
Philippines 10,400 10,722 12,000 13,499 13,650 13,785
Thailand 9,480 9,544 9,780 9,600 9,500 9,600
Vietnam 17,595 18,392 18,775 19,400 19,000 19,150
Others 46,043 46,032 47,545 48,327 49,375 50,727
Subtotal 405,558 412,140 417,567 424,432 430,840 432,954
United States 3,934 3,828 4,102 4,078 4,100 4,171
World Total 409,492 415,968 421,669 428,510 434,940 437,125
none
Ending Stocks
China 38,931 36,783 35,915 38,015 42,915 45,265
India 8,500 10,520 11,430 13,000 17,000 13,000
Indonesia 3,448 3,207 4,607 5,607 7,057 8,487
Japan 1,919 2,395 2,406 2,556 2,715 2,635
Philippines 4,572 5,293 4,868 4,418 4,121 3,136
Thailand 2,312 3,594 2,510 2,707 4,787 5,887
Vietnam 1,292 1,317 1,392 2,018 1,956 2,106
Others 11,205 11,510 10,706 11,712 11,819 10,710
Subtotal 72,179 74,619 73,834 80,033 92,370 91,226
United States 1,211 1,371 1,266 942 974 1,271
World Total 73,390 75,990 75,100 80,975 93,344 92,497

Note: All data are reported on a milled basis.


Regional Rice Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks

Feb
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

TY Imports none
North America 1,293 1,552 1,645 1,594 1,655 1,675
Caribbean 1,213 1,111 965 1,028 820 1,005
South America 964 1,095 1,080 1,119 1,188 1,355
Other Europe 114 138 137 98 125 120
Former Soviet Union - 12 526 504 361 335 355 325
Middle East 4,879 5,204 4,778 5,728 5,785 5,910
North Africa 261 233 355 280 160 145
East Asia 2,119 2,017 2,318 1,646 1,825 1,926
South Asia 1,202 925 1,962 2,063 490 1,110
Southeast Asia 4,236 4,122 5,742 4,637 4,300 4,935
Others 1,876 2,010 2,205 2,428 2,215 2,308
Total 26,908 26,423 29,352 28,240 26,815 28,859
Production none
North America 7,657 7,286 6,445 6,522 6,690 7,220
Caribbean 760 685 798 796 882 932
South America 16,217 14,557 14,292 15,649 16,014 15,072
European Union 1,880 1,731 1,676 1,757 1,680 1,988
Former Soviet Union - 12 770 871 1,000 1,005 915 1,095
Middle East 2,145 2,372 2,538 2,738 2,085 2,496
North Africa 4,148 4,170 4,413 4,406 4,408 4,409
East Asia 141,118 142,492 142,661 145,044 150,104 152,250
South Asia 119,009 131,367 133,111 136,535 142,095 126,598
Southeast Asia 99,462 102,944 103,778 109,823 111,292 112,536
Others 765 1,289 691 553 676 666
Total 401,823 418,568 420,779 434,385 447,309 436,278
North America 5,005 4,936 5,231 5,143 5,225 5,291
Central America 1,079 1,064 1,102 1,116 1,108 1,073
Caribbean 1,990 1,732 1,829 1,863 1,737 1,930
South America 14,930 14,002 13,418 14,053 14,697 14,699
European Union 2,636 2,651 2,911 3,185 2,970 3,108
Middle East 6,756 7,629 7,586 7,809 7,976 8,235
North Africa 3,531 3,575 3,546 3,636 4,146 4,170
East Asia 147,014 144,371 144,289 143,315 145,800 149,920
South Asia 115,884 121,673 124,366 129,650 133,215 126,645
Southeast Asia 90,387 92,459 94,986 97,250 97,048 98,596
Others 607 667 714 664 600 624
Total 407,251 412,686 418,370 426,470 433,706 434,541
Ending Stocks none
North America 1,385 1,530 1,409 1,135 1,140 1,442
Central America 297 271 299 255 207 213
Caribbean 159 225 178 134 109 106
South America 2,472 2,199 2,230 2,488 2,518 2,078
European Union 1,138 1,181 1,138 1,126 1,020 1,115
Middle East 1,728 2,079 1,697 1,977 1,826 1,902
North Africa 502 366 370 685 792 576
East Asia 41,916 40,329 39,317 41,537 46,657 49,157
South Asia 9,038 11,317 12,636 14,306 19,193 14,286
Southeast Asia 12,648 14,469 14,426 15,780 18,732 20,465
Oceania 431 515 230 52 26 22
Others 182 179 149 159 124 134
Total 73,390 75,990 75,100 80,975 93,344 92,497



COARSE GRAINS: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE

PRICES:

Throughout January, U.S. corn export Corn Weekly Export Bids
quotes continued a nearly $30 per ton slide 200
to about $165 following USDA data
190
indicating a record crop. Argentine and
Brazilian quotes largely moved with U.S., 180

$/MT
but the normal pre-harvest discount ($20)
has narrowed because of strong sales and 170
shipments. 160

150

22 n
29 n
n
eb
20 v
ov
ov

18 c
25 c
ec
ct
ov

ec

an
an
o

e
e

-Ja
-Ja
-Ja
-O

-N
-N
-N

-D
-D
-D
6-N

4-D

5-F
1-J
8-J
30

15
13

27

11
TRADE CHANGES IN 2009/10 U.S. Gulf A rgentina Up River
B razil P aranagua
Selected Exporters

• U.S. corn is cut 2.0 million tons to 50.0 million based on the pace of shipments, despite
some improved sales in recent weeks.

• Argentine corn is raised 2.0 million tons to 9.5 million because of strong shipments in
recent months and improved prospects for new crop corn.

• EU barley is lowered 500,000 tons to 1.5 million, the lowest in 6 years, on the
continued slow pace of export licenses and large early-season intervention offers.

• Turkey barley is raised 450,000 tons to 500,000 on large feed-barley export tenders by
the Turkish Grain Board.

• U.S. sorghum is boosted 200,000 tons to 3.8 million with commitments running well
ahead of last year. (Japanese and Mexican sorghum imports are each boosted 100,000
tons.)

Selected Importers

• Vietnamese corn is boosted 200,000 tons to 900,000 based on strong trade with
Thailand.

• Iran barley is lowered 200,000 tons based on a slow early-season import pace.


Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 12

World Coarse Grain Trade
October/September Year, Thousand Metric Tons
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
Feb

none
TY Exports
Argentina 14,371 11,243 17,191 17,786 10,241 11,405
Australia 4,996 5,614 1,993 3,895 4,874 5,060
Brazil 1,457 2,826 8,188 8,032 7,183 9,100
Canada 3,217 4,010 3,787 6,379 3,848 3,625
EU-27 5,952 3,652 5,463 4,679 4,338 3,280
India 505 501 721 5,539 2,400 1,025
Russia 1,534 1,452 1,836 1,419 4,943 2,450
Serbia nr nr 863 132 1,478 2,005
South Africa 1,553 1,429 462 1,145 2,159 2,540
Ukraine 6,465 7,439 3,942 5,909 11,380 11,015
Others 10,457 8,888 10,976 5,574 5,349 5,270
Subtotal 50,507 47,054 55,422 60,489 58,193 56,775
United States 50,692 61,443 59,157 68,289 51,718 53,950
World Total 101,199 108,497 114,579 128,778 109,911 110,725
none
TY Imports
Algeria 2,273 2,139 2,588 2,433 2,080 2,105
Brazil 745 1,107 1,472 1,258 1,494 950
Canada 2,339 2,029 2,285 3,187 1,900 2,070
Chile 1,189 1,678 1,766 1,969 1,261 1,625
China 2,073 2,306 1,156 1,157 1,651 1,635
Colombia 2,516 3,380 3,714 3,603 3,652 3,775
Dominican Republic 1,031 1,068 1,212 1,074 900 1,000
Egypt 5,405 4,418 4,845 4,174 5,066 4,225
EU-27 2,906 2,883 8,738 19,892 2,996 2,830
Iran 3,858 3,000 3,600 3,900 5,000 3,700
Israel 1,700 1,588 1,684 1,776 1,461 1,425
Japan 19,709 19,765 19,668 19,210 19,611 19,460
Jordan 938 1,234 1,186 889 825 850
Kenya 269 115 6 210 1,304 1,060
Korea, South 8,710 8,545 8,797 9,358 7,254 7,570
Malaysia 2,406 2,517 2,363 3,181 2,400 2,600
Mexico 8,977 9,928 11,040 11,011 10,467 12,450
Morocco 1,989 1,975 2,150 2,185 1,784 1,735
Peru 1,366 1,548 1,646 1,592 1,399 1,620
Saudi Arabia 7,724 8,575 7,578 9,968 9,185 9,305
Syria 2,281 2,006 2,079 2,511 2,850 2,900
Taiwan 4,757 4,743 4,403 4,684 4,672 4,725
Tunisia 1,228 1,230 1,519 1,183 900 1,100
Venezuela 107 152 534 1,103 1,341 1,300
Vietnam 291 475 650 700 1,100 900
Others 11,444 14,193 13,899 14,367 12,243 12,060
Subtotal 98,231 102,597 110,578 126,575 104,796 104,975
Unaccounted 726 3,605 1,396 -1,407 2,308 3,125
United States 2,242 2,295 2,605 3,610 2,807 2,625
World Total 101,199 108,497 114,579 128,778 109,911 110,725



World Coarse Grains Production, Consumption, and Stocks
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
Feb

none
Production
Argentina 24,899 19,351 27,034 26,974 16,223 22,673
Australia 11,409 13,527 6,583 12,895 11,970 11,817
Brazil 37,874 44,167 53,184 61,344 53,624 53,614
Canada 25,602 24,939 23,145 27,841 27,167 22,373
China 138,252 147,696 159,098 159,105 172,700 162,000
Ethiopia 5,763 7,179 7,928 8,302 9,236 8,825
EU-27 166,579 146,267 137,421 136,123 161,579 152,580
India 33,560 34,040 33,810 40,630 39,170 33,600
Indonesia 7,200 6,800 7,850 8,500 8,700 9,000
Mexico 28,975 25,887 29,181 30,577 31,485 29,329
Nigeria 23,200 24,700 26,000 24,000 26,600 27,500
Russia 29,600 27,600 30,200 29,325 40,700 31,800
South Africa 12,209 7,311 7,760 13,690 13,084 12,003
Turkey 11,055 11,955 10,896 9,480 10,315 10,395
Ukraine 23,000 18,140 19,175 14,585 26,220 24,120
Others 116,221 120,485 126,891 124,632 126,938 133,597
Subtotal 695,398 680,044 706,156 728,003 775,711 745,226
United States 319,378 298,710 279,998 349,861 325,867 350,258
World Total 1,014,776 978,754 986,154 1,077,864 1,101,578 1,095,484
none
Domestic Consumption
Argentina 9,055 9,471 9,519 9,897 6,673 10,073
Brazil 41,558 42,197 43,304 45,279 47,504 48,279
Canada 22,944 22,859 24,505 24,021 22,850 22,173
China 141,072 147,105 153,465 157,015 160,425 167,575
Egypt 12,364 11,163 11,800 11,477 11,863 11,980
EU-27 152,573 147,538 147,877 154,155 152,105 153,205
India 33,240 33,800 32,520 35,500 36,400 32,850
Japan 19,881 20,089 19,823 19,460 19,710 19,605
Mexico 38,335 37,600 39,970 40,310 42,135 42,550
Nigeria 22,950 24,450 25,750 24,000 26,450 27,550
Russia 29,400 27,700 28,600 28,875 32,650 31,450
Saudi Arabia 7,160 8,235 8,760 9,680 9,580 10,080
South Africa 10,283 8,768 9,153 10,158 10,573 10,803
Turkey 11,536 11,462 11,602 10,609 10,575 10,310
Ukraine 15,175 12,415 13,150 11,835 13,720 13,590
Others 168,703 181,547 184,822 188,797 191,614 194,417
Subtotal 737,569 747,731 769,337 781,499 796,776 808,842
United States 240,177 245,022 242,798 274,533 275,748 296,675
World Total 977,746 992,753 1,012,135 1,056,032 1,072,524 1,105,517
none
Ending Stocks
Australia 2,153 2,804 1,205 2,666 3,330 3,400
Brazil 4,380 3,187 3,772 12,865 13,582 10,567
Canada 6,356 6,347 3,501 4,010 6,355 5,000
China 37,564 36,705 38,032 40,426 54,131 49,621
EU-27 25,128 22,275 15,138 12,768 20,102 18,977
Mexico 5,400 3,376 3,426 4,565 4,222 3,401
South Africa 3,435 2,443 1,776 3,251 3,382 3,172
Others 35,439 32,752 35,651 34,897 37,397 36,706
Subtotal 119,855 109,889 102,501 115,448 142,501 130,844
United States 58,800 54,767 36,174 45,059 47,060 48,684
World Total 178,655 164,656 138,675 160,507 189,561 179,528


Regional Coarse Grains Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks

Feb
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

TY Imports none
North America 13,558 14,252 15,930 17,808 15,174 17,145
Central America 2,405 2,803 2,906 2,681 2,440 2,825
Caribbean 1,913 1,969 2,227 2,239 2,000 2,150
South America 6,462 8,791 10,181 10,672 10,149 10,150
European Union 2,906 2,883 8,738 19,892 2,996 2,830
Former Soviet Union - 12 1,129 1,052 949 1,027 564 545
Middle East 17,940 17,835 18,674 21,819 21,261 19,880
North Africa 11,603 10,481 11,671 10,755 10,730 10,015
East Asia 35,661 35,613 34,135 34,662 33,438 33,640
Southeast Asia 3,499 4,897 4,394 4,746 4,739 4,550
Others 659 776 991 1,205 868 1,025
Total 100,473 104,892 113,183 130,185 107,603 107,600
Production none
North America 373,955 349,536 332,324 408,279 384,519 401,960
South America 73,026 73,858 92,137 100,084 81,449 88,329
European Union 166,579 146,267 137,421 136,123 161,579 152,580
Other Europe 12,781 12,659 11,568 9,370 12,292 11,718
Middle East 18,876 19,998 19,060 17,381 15,933 16,977
North Africa 11,786 9,371 11,211 9,894 9,871 13,932
East Asia 140,518 149,899 161,399 161,295 174,874 164,141
South Asia 39,291 40,395 40,020 46,925 45,128 39,908
Southeast Asia 21,583 22,000 23,838 26,062 26,153 26,840
Oceania 12,034 14,174 7,230 13,542 12,617 12,464
Others 3,838 3,865 3,985 4,410 4,320 4,159
Total 1,014,776 978,754 986,154 1,077,864 1,101,578 1,095,484
North America 301,456 305,481 307,273 338,864 340,733 361,398
South America 65,791 68,213 70,951 74,697 73,222 78,324
European Union 152,573 147,538 147,877 154,155 152,105 153,205
Other Europe 12,174 12,044 11,533 10,456 10,604 10,775
Middle East 35,041 37,188 37,607 37,827 37,890 37,516
North Africa 21,816 20,820 22,029 21,161 20,748 22,710
East Asia 177,081 182,819 188,963 191,868 194,920 201,809
South Asia 38,890 40,067 38,801 42,052 42,416 39,233
Southeast Asia 23,814 26,093 26,834 28,740 29,598 30,315
Oceania 7,478 7,940 6,885 7,666 7,347 7,437
Others 8,205 8,467 9,014 9,312 8,991 9,151
Total 976,406 991,421 1,007,418 1,055,601 1,070,575 1,103,165
Ending Stocks none
North America 70,556 64,490 43,101 53,634 57,637 57,085
South America 9,670 7,676 9,060 18,476 16,789 15,027
European Union 25,128 22,275 15,138 12,768 20,102 18,977
Other Europe 1,607 1,491 1,520 1,291 1,821 1,589
Middle East 7,442 7,951 8,167 7,498 7,882 6,973
North Africa 3,640 2,675 3,166 2,419 2,528 3,765
East Asia 41,705 40,586 41,793 44,954 58,125 53,527
South Asia 1,543 1,401 1,455 1,580 1,795 1,535
Southeast Asia 1,743 2,100 2,644 3,282 3,302 3,142
Oceania 2,234 2,883 1,293 2,729 3,390 3,457
Others 814 903 1,005 1,039 798 771
Total 178,655 164,656 138,675 160,507 189,561 179,528



Grains World Markets And Trade February 2010

Grains World Markets And Trade February 2010

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