Keynote at the EAN Conference on access and diversity in higher education, Amsterdam, 17 June 2011

1. The race for untapped talent: the prospects of diversity Dirk Van Damme Head of the Centre for Educational Research and Development – OECD/EDU

2. Outline The global race for talent Expanding higher education systems Untapped stocks of talent Opportunities for ethnic minority students Benefits and prospects The pedagogy of success Conclusions 2

3. The global race for talent 1. 3

4. Demography 4

5. 5

6. The global talent pool

7. Need for skilled people Demographic transition and a rapidly changing economy dramatically increase the need for skilled jobs and people Increasing international competition for talent and high-skilled labour Countries will increasingly look into the possibilities of high-skilled migration to solve short-term skill needs But there may be more sustainable policy approaches… 7

8. Expanding higher education systems 2. 8

9. Expansion Higher education systems are Recruiting more students than even before Delivering more qualified graduates than… Receiving more (mainly public) funding than… Attracting more international students and international staff than… Expansion, massification and internationalisation will continue to grow 9

10. Growth in university-level qualifications Approximated by the percentage of the population that has attained tertiary-type A education in the age groups 25-34 years, 35-44 years, 45-54 years and 55-64 years (2007) %

11. Changes in student numbers and expenditure Index of change between 2000 and 2007 (2000=100, 2007 constant prices) Expenditure per student increased by 14% on average between 2000-2007

12. Source: CERI/OECD, 2008 Massification will continue 12

13. International studentsPercentage of all foreign tertiary students enrolled by destination 3.3 million tertiary students are enrolled outside their country, compared to 2 millions in 2000.

14. International students 2007, OECD Education database 14

15. 15

16. …will that be enough…? 16

17. Untapped stocks of talent 3. 17

18. Waste of talent? Higher education is not very effective in taking benefit of the human resources it potentially can tap on High failure and drop out rates, especially in the early years Low access and low success rates of students from disadvantaged backgrounds Low SES students Low educational capital Ethnic minority students 18

19. Failure remains a huge problem… Proportion of students who enter a tertiary programme but leave without at least a first tertiary degree (2005) % 19

20. 20 Source: Education at a Glance 2008

21. Higher education participation according to educational attainment father (2004) 21

22. Success rates of students according to educational attainment mother (Antwerp University, 2006) 22

23. Opportunities for ethnic minority students 4. 23

24. Changing populations 24

25. Percentage of 15 year-old school pupils with at least one parent born abroad and percentage of 15 year-old school pupils born abroad in 2009 25

26. Percentage point changes in the share of 15 year-old school pupils with at least one parent born abroad and of 15 year-old school pupils born abroad, 2000-09 26

27. But gaps in educational achievement 27 PISA 2009 data (reading scale)

29. Other factors: availability of educational resources at home, reading at home at a young age, and participating in ECEC, etc.Accounting for students' socio - economic background Accounting for students' socio - economic background and language spoken at home Performance difference in reading 20 Score point difference 0 38 pts Roughly equivalent to one year of schooling (science -proxy) - 20 - 40 - 60 - 80 - 100

30. Proportion of 20-24y-olds who are not in education and have not attained upper secondary education, by migrant status (2007) 29

31. Educational opportunities for migrants Rapidly increasing share of school population Achievement gaps in school education between native born and migrant students With strong impact of SES and language spoken at home But with very large variation between countries Unqualified and out-of-school 20-24y olds are in most countries disproportionally from migrant backgrounds And what about higher education? 30

32. Proportion of 25-29 year-olds who either have a tertiary education qualification or are currently enrolled in a tertiary education programme, by migrant status 2007 31

33. Increasing participation disadvantaged 32 England Increase for advantaged areas in the same period was only 4% (from 55% to 59%)

34. Difference in 25-29y olds in tertiary education between migrants and born in country and difference in 20-24y olds with secondary education Migrants more in tertiary education Migrants more with secondary education Migrants less in tertiary education Migrants more with secondary education Migrants more in tertiary education Migrants less with secondary education Migrants less in tertiary education Migrants less with secondary education 33

35. Migrant students in HE In most countries educational participation and qualification of migrant students are lagging behind those of native students But there are indications of rising participation levels Large differences between countries suggest that this has little to do with innate capacities nor that it should be a insolvable problem There seems to be a link in country profiles between migrant participation and participation of foreign students in higher education 34

36. Difference in 25-29y olds in tertiary education between migrants and born in country and percentage of foreign students (2007-2008) 35

37. Benefits and prospects 5. 36

38. Benefits and prospects More migrant students accessing and succeeding in higher education might have very powerful economical benefits Additional skills input in the economy has a positive impact on growth Employment opportunities improve A more ‘open’ science and innovation system also seems to be a more productive and innovative one 37

39. The economic cost of educational underachievement McKinsey calculated the economic cost of the 1983-1998 achievement gap in PISA results for the US today Racial gap: black and Latino students to level of white students 2 to 4% 2008 GDP Income gap: students from families earning <25k US$ to level of students from families >25k: 3 to 5% System gap: underperforming states to average achievement level: 3 to 5% International gap with top-performing nations: 9 to 16% (1% 2008 US GDP ≈ 165 billion US$) 38

40. Proportion of employed 25-29y-old non-students with a tertiary education, working as technicians or as professionals by migrant status 2007 39

41. Difference between 25-29y olds foreign born and born in country for tertiary education and employment (2007) Migrants less in tertiary education Migrants with tertiary education more employed Migrants more in tertiary education Migrants with tertiary education more employed Migrants less in tertiary education Migrants with tertiary education less employed Migrants more in tertiary education Migrants with tertiary education less employed 40

42. Link with innovation

43. The pedagogY of success 6. 42

44. Old (or not so old) paradigm Selection of the gifted ‘Only small minority has the necessary abilities’ The impact of education is ceiled by the limited availability of innate abilities Distribution of innate abilities follows normal distribution, so learning outcomes have to be distributed in the same way Early tracking and streaming to select the best Concentration of educational efforts and resources in elite institutions for the few ‘Pedagogy of failure’ for the many 29 April 2010 43 Hungarian Lifelong Learning Conference

45. Future paradigm All talents to the highest possible level Excellence is not contradictory to equity Some countries are capable of raising achievement at both ends of the performance scale or even to enhance excellence while decreasing inequity Effective learning demands pedagogical differentiation and less standardisation ‘Pedagogy of success’ for all! But: talents which are more difficult to exploit demand more effective and more intensive educational interventions 29 April 2010 Hungarian Lifelong Learning Conference 44

46. Conclusions 7. 45

47. Conclusions Demographic changes, skill demands of the knowledge economy and social change at large will increasingly ask HE to mine hitherto untapped and even undiscovered talent, beyond the ‘easy’ solution of recruiting high-skilled on the international market. There are large ‘reservoirs’ of talent in the disadvantaged communities in our counties, more specifically in the migrant community. 46

48. Conclusions Access and – slowly – success of migrant students in HE is improving, but much more needs to be done Mining talents in disadvantaged students will require more effective pedagogy and educational structures in institutions Beyond the ‘call of moral duty, economic and social benefits are potentially very huge, both for society at large and institutions 47

49. Thank you ! dirk.vandamme@oecd.org www.oecd.org/edu/ceri 48