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- 3. The PC is dead! 3
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- 5. web = loser | apps = winner The web is dead! 5
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- 13. SOFTWARE 13
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- 16. WE ARE SOCIAL - WITHOUT SOCIAL NETWORKS 16
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- 18. 4.2 billion Twitter Mobile is social, distributed and huge focus MOBILE MESSAGING WILL EAT “SOCIAL”AND MEDIA SHARING 18
- 20. 20
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- 26. Bad News = eCPMs 5x Lower on Mobile than Desktop $0.49 $0.51 $0.55 $0.63 $0.68 $0.68 $0.68 $0.89 $1.17 $1.24 $0.75 $3.50 $- $1 $2 $3 $4 Navigation Games Reference Medical Entertainment Health & Fitness Utilities Lifestyle Education Weather Mobile Internet** Desktop Internet* Effective CPM, Desktop Internet* vs. Mobile Internet** Note: * Desktop Internet is a weighted average CPM calculation based on comScore Display ad share data and Vivaki CPM by category data as of Q3:11. **Mobile Internet is a simple average eCPM calculation based on Mobclix Exchange USA data as of 3/12. Mobile eCPM by Category 19 26
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- 30. WHAT DOES IT MEAN? Is bad for 30
- 31. OPPORTUNITIES 31
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- 34. 80,000 users in 140 countries in 21 days. 34
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- 36. Despite Tremendous Ramp So Far, Smartphone User Adoption Has Huge Upside 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Smartphone Mobile Phone GlobalSubscriptions(MM) Global Smartphone vs. Mobile Phone Subscriptions, Q4:11 Source: Mobile phone subscriptions per Informa (as of Q4:11), Smartphone subscriptions estimate based on Morgan Stanley Research’s estimated smartphone user as % of total mobile user at the end of 2011 (16%). Note: While there are 1B global 3G subscribers as of Q4:11, not all of them were smartphone users. One user may have multiple mobile subscriptions, therefore actual user #s may be lower than subscriber #s. 953MM Smartphone Subscriptions 6.1B Mobile Phone Subscriptions 11 1.1 B Smartphones will outperform the overall market for mobile phones, growing at a CAGR of 23% between 2011 and 2017 to reach 1.7 billion units Dec 2012 36
- 37. SO WHAT ARETHE OPPORTUNITIES • Mobile Messaging eats media sharing and social networking • Payments • Medical Sensors and Data • Cloud for Mobile • Time and Space - Mobile meetsThings • Entertainment - the end of TV; the end of games consoles • Advertising - not the web 37
- 38. Consequences For Developers • mobile is going to kill desktop and laptop based software, although it will take some time it has already started. • Mobile is much bigger than desktop and with lots of growth potential • Its an app world, not a web world • Front end developers need Objective C; Java and HTML5/CSS3/Javascript. • Back end need to go beyond SQL to Hadoop and other NOSQL solutions. • Selling developer service to western companies is not a way to get rich. Build Apps and back end solutions (services) • Cloud is changing too. Message Bus and Storage, not apps consumed in browsers. • On mobile you are rewarded for thinking global.Your home market is NOT your market. The world is. • You can get big fast • Russian developers are not at a disadvantage if they take account of these trends early and aggressively 38
- 39. Consequences For Businesses • IT needs to embrace BYOD (Bring your own Device). • Desktop communications begins to phase out. • Secure Apps able to access Corporate Data are needed. • Secure Cloud Storage is needed. • De-centralized model will grow as data moves to the device. • API’s remain key for B2B relationships. • Desktop is not the key focus any more. 39
- 40. Credits Business Insider - http://www.businessinsider.com/ the-future-of-mobile-deck-2012-3?op=1 Kleiner Perkins & Mary Meeker - http:// www.kpcb.com/insights/2012-internet-trends Flurry - http://blog.flurry.com/ Get My Slides http://slides.just.me 40