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EARNED VALUE PROJECT MANAGEMENT
PREAMBLE  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Your comments on the situation?
Earned Value Project Management  ,[object Object]
Earned Value Project Management  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Earned Value Project Management  Cost Variance (CV) Cost Variance = EV – AC (BCWP – ACWP) = Rs 60,000 – Rs 85,000  =  (-) Rs 25,000 Negative value indicating cost overruns.
Earned Value Project Management  ,[object Object],[object Object],Remember
Earned Value Project Management  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Earned Value Project Management  Schedule Variance (SV) This is the algebraic difference between Earned Value of the work performed and the budgeted value of the work planned. In our case Schedule Variance = BCWP – BCWS   (EV)  –  (PV)  = Rs 60,000 – Rs 80,000  =  (-) Rs 20,000
You find anything odd about the measuring of schedule variance?
Earned Value Project Management  Schedule variance is being measured in monetary units – not time units.
Earned Value Project Management  A positive value for this variance represents work ahead of schedule, and negative value indicates behind schedule or schedule slippage
Earned Value Project Management  These variances not only tell the project manager about the true, rather than the apparent state of the project, they also ………………
Earned Value Project Management  In this case, the larger CV (42% of the EV) as compared to SV (33% of EV) tells us that we need to look more at the cost overrun aspects.
EARNED VALUE INDICES  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
EARNED VALUE INDICES  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
SCHEDULE PERFORMANCE INDEX (SPI) ,[object Object],SPI = = = = 0.75 ,[object Object],[object Object],BCWP BCWS EV PV 60,000 80,000
SCHEDULE PERFORMANCE INDEX (SPI) ,[object Object],15 0.75 = 20 days
COST PERFORMANCE INDEX (CPI) ,[object Object],CPI = = = = 0.705 ,[object Object],BCWP ACWP EV AC 60,000 85,000
COST PERFORMANCE INDEX (CPI) ,[object Object],BAC CPI EAC = BAC = Budget At Completion. The sum of all authorized budgets allocated to a project. It is synonymous with earned value term “Performance Measurement Baseline”.
COST PERFORMANCE INDEX (CPI) 80,000 0.705 EAC = In our case it is ………….. = Rs 1,13,475.17
COST PERFORMANCE INDEX (CPI) How would you explain the significance of EAC, SPI and CPI we have calculated?
COST PERFORMANCE INDEX (CPI) EAC allows us to forecast the total project costs on the basis of efficiency with which work performance is achieved.
COST PERFORMANCE INDEX (CPI) EV PV ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],= SPI
COST PERFORMANCE INDEX (CPI) EV AC Compare  What have you done by now (EV) To  What you have spent by now (AC) You Get a reading on productivity called CPI = CPI Ratio
COST PERFORMANCE INDEX (CPI) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Summary
COST PERFORMANCE INDEX (CPI) Interpretation of Indices  ........Summary Table 1:  Efficiency Indices Index  Cost (CPI) Schedule (SPI) > 1.00 Under Cost Ahead of schedule  = 1.00 On Cost On schedule  < 1.00 Over Cost  Behind schedule
PLANNING FOR EARNED  VALUE PROJECT MANAGEMENT
PROJECT FEATURES  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
PROJECT FEATURES  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
FIRST QUARTERLY PROJECT STATUS REPORT  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
FIRST QUARTERLY PROJECT STATUS REPORT  “ We are right on our cost spending plan, a little behind schedule perhaps, but we are doing well” , would be the positive spin put on these results by most practitioners.
EVPM EMPLOYMENT  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],EVPM EMPLOYMENT
[object Object],[object Object],EVPM EMPLOYMENT
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],EVPM EMPLOYMENT
EV requires a baseline master project schedule; or stated  another way without a master project schedule, one cannot employ Earned Value.  EVPM EMPLOYMENT
[object Object],[object Object],EVPM EMPLOYMENT
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],EVPM EMPLOYMENT
[object Object],[object Object],EVPM EMPLOYMENT
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],EVPM EMPLOYMENT
[object Object],EVPM EMPLOYMENT
[object Object],EVPM EMPLOYMENT
[object Object],EVPM EMPLOYMENT
[object Object],EVPM EMPLOYMENT
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],EVPM EMPLOYMENT
Cost Actual spend Value generated  Planned value  Time These three quantities are the basis of all earned value performance measurements Fig 1
[object Object],EVPM EMPLOYMENT
[object Object],EVPM EMPLOYMENT
[object Object],EVPM EMPLOYMENT
[object Object],[object Object],EVPM EMPLOYMENT
[object Object],EVPM EMPLOYMENT
EVPM EMPLOYMENT  Although only at 20% completion point, by monitoring these three dimensions of earned value data, the project is forecasting a significant final overrun of costs.
[object Object],EVPM EMPLOYMENT
EVPM EMPLOYMENT  Decisions  After  Project  Quarterly Progress  Review Project budget revised to Rs 1.5M Time schedule remained at 12 months Main performance objective Getting project back on schedule
EVPM EMPLOYMENT  Final Results  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
EVPM EMPLOYMENT
EVPM EMPLOYMENT  The value of Earned Value  Postmortem:
EVPM EMPLOYMENT  Will the use of earned value on projects prevent cost overruns? Question:
EVPM EMPLOYMENT  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
EVPM EMPLOYMENT  ,[object Object]
EVPM EMPLOYMENT  ,[object Object],“ The accurate measurement of the physical work performed against a baseline plan. It has provided a reliable prediction of the final costs and schedule requirements for a given project.
EVPM EMPLOYMENT  ,[object Object]
EVPM EMPLOYMENT  ,[object Object]
EVPM EMPLOYMENT  ,[object Object]
TRADITIONAL PROJECT  COST MANAGEMENT
Internal Development Project ---The plan--- Fig 2:  A typical project cost expenditure projection  Authorized Budget 1,000,000 Cost Spend Plan Thousands (000) 1,000 750 500 250 1 2 3 4 Quarters
Internal Development Project ---1 st  Quarter Results-- Fig 3: Traditional cost management: plan versus actual costs Authorized Budget 1,000,000 Planned Costs  = 300K Thousands (000) 1,000 750 500 250 1 2 3 4 Quarters  Actual Costs = 300K Status date
Internal Development Project ---1 st  Quarter Results--- Fig 4: Earned value project management: 3 dimensional Authorized Budget 1,000,000 Planned Value = 300 Thousands (000) 1,000 750 500 250 1 2 3 4 Quarters  Actual Costs = 300K Status date Earned Value = 200K
EVPM EMPLOYMENT  ,[object Object],“ Overrun of costs. The project can be said to be running a negative Rs 100,000, cost variance. The delicate relationships reflected with these actual cost and schedule performance relationships can now be used to predict the final costs and schedule results of the project”.
EVPM EMPLOYMENT  ,[object Object],[object Object]
TRADITIONAL  COST MANAGEMENT VS EV PROJECT  MANAGEMENT
[object Object]
Fig 5: The Fundamental Differences Traditional Project Cost Management Planned funds = 300 K Actual costs  = 300 K Variance from an expenditure plan = (0K) Earned Value Project Management  Planned value = 300 K Earned value  = 200 K Variance from the planned schedule = (- 100K) Actual costs  = 300 K The “true” cost variance = (- 100K)
Fig 6: Project S-Curves Cumulative cost (in thousands) 80 60 40 20 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 45 Elapsed Time (in weeks)
Table 2: Budgeted Costs for Project Siera  Activity   Duration (in weeks) 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Total  Design  6 2 - - - - - - - Engineer  - 4 8 8 8 - - - - Install  - - - 4 20 6 - - - Test  - - - - - 2 6 4 2 Total  6 6 8 12 28 8 6 4 2 Cumulative  6 12 20 32 60 68 74 78 80 80
Fig 7: Project Siera’s S-Curve showing negative Variance  Cumulative cost (in thousands) 80 60 40 20 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 45 Elapsed Time (in weeks) 10,000 Negative Var.  Cumulative Budgeted Cost Cumulative Actual Cost
S-CURVES DRAWBACKS
S-curves ,[object Object],[object Object]
Is this good or bad news?
[object Object],[object Object],S-curves
[object Object],[object Object],S-curves
[object Object],S-curves
COMPARISON OF TRACKING /  MONITORING TOOLS
Cost Project S-curves Schedule  Performance Fig 8: Monitoring Project Performance  S-curves
[object Object],S-curves
Cost Tracking control charts, Gantt charts Schedule  Performance Fig 9: Monitoring Project Performance  S-curves
[object Object],S-curves
[object Object],S-curves
Cost Tracking control charts, Gantt charts Schedule  Performance Fig 10: Monitoring Project Performance  Earned  Value  S-curves
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],S-curves
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],S-curves
Forecasting the Final Cost  and Schedule Results
[object Object],Forecasting the Final Cost and Schedule Results
[object Object],Forecasting the Final Cost and Schedule Results
The Project Manager’s “Official Estimate” (Actual costs + a new “bottom-up” ETC EVPM independent statistical EAC comparisons: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Fig 11:  Forecasting a Range of Estimates at Completion  ♣ ♣ ♣ ♣
How do projects typically estimate their final costs?  Question: Forecasting the Final Cost and Schedule Results
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Answer: Forecasting the Final Cost and Schedule Results
What’s wrong with this approach?  Question: Forecasting the Final Cost and Schedule Results
Preparing a new ETC is a royal pain in the neck! Preparing a new ETC is  non-project work . The very people who are performing on the project, who are often frustrated because they are running behind their schedule, must stop doing real project work and prepare a new baseline plan called the ETC.  Answer: Forecasting the Final Cost and Schedule Results
[object Object],Forecasting the Final Cost and Schedule Results
Fig 12: Monitoring earned value performance  Perfect “Schedule” performance = 1.0 (for every 1.00 work planned you get 1.00 in earned value) Perfect “Cost” performance = 1.0 (for every 1.00 in cost actuals you get 1.00 in earned value) Good = +1.0 Plan = 1.0 Poor  = -1.0 1.00 + –
[object Object],[object Object],Forecasting the Final Cost and Schedule Results
[object Object],[object Object],Forecasting the Final Cost and Schedule Results
EVPM Independent Statistical EAC Comparisons
1. “The Mathematical” or “Overrun-to-Date” Estimate at Completion
Fig 13: The “Mathematical” or “Overrun-to-Date”  EAC Short EAC Formula: AC + BAC – EV 1.00 + – Status date  Cost Overrun to date Long EAC Formula: Actual Costs + Remaining Work (BAC – EV) 1.0 pf
[object Object],EVPM Independent Statistical EAC Comparison
First reason to use this formula: The Mathematical or Overrun-to-date is often the first indication announcing to the project manager and executive management the first indication that they may have cost problem on their project. If a project spends Rs. 300,000/- to accomplish only Rs. 200,000/- of budgeted work, the project experienced a “cost overrun” for the initial work that it has performed. Management deserves to know this fact. EVPM Independent Statistical EAC Comparison
Second reason to use this formula: The Mathematical EAC is important because an early overrun does not go away with the passage of time. It is rare for an early front-end overrun disappearing through exemplary performance of the remaining work.  EVPM Independent Statistical EAC Comparison
In a project baseline, where are the best scope definition, best planning, best budget, and best scheduled dates placed; in the first half or the last half of the baseline?  Question: EVPM Independent Statistical EAC Comparison
Likely the best of every thing will be incorporated in to the first half baseline. Thus, if a  project incurs an overrun in the first half, what are the chances of making a later recovery of the overrun? Little to none. This EAC formula provides a sort of minimum overrun that does not go away.  Answer: EVPM Independent Statistical EAC Comparison
[object Object],[object Object],EVPM Independent Statistical EAC Comparison
2. The “Cumulative CPI” Estimate at Completion
[object Object],EVPM Independent Statistical EAC Comparison
Fig 14: The Low-end “Cumulative CPI”  EAC Short EAC Formula: BAC   =  EAC Cum. CPI 1.00 + – Status date  Cumulative CPI Plan EAC Long EAC Formula: Actual Costs + Remaining Work (BAC – EV)   (Cumulative CPI pf)
[object Object],EVPM Independent Statistical EAC Comparison
[object Object],[object Object],EVPM Independent Statistical EAC Comparison
[object Object],EVPM Independent Statistical EAC Comparison
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],EVPM Independent Statistical EAC Comparison
3. The “Cumulative CPI times SPI” estimate at completion
[object Object],EVPM Independent Statistical EAC Comparison
Fig 15: The High-end “Cumulative CPI times SPI”  EAC There is no short EAC Formula  Long EAC Formula: Actual Costs + Remaining Work (BAC – EV)   (Cumulative CPI x SPI pf) 1.00 + – Status date  Cumulative SPI Plan EAC Cumulative CPI
[object Object],EVPM Independent Statistical EAC Comparison
What is the utility of providing a statistical range (low /most likely / high) of final cost results for a given project?  Question: EVPM Independent Statistical EAC Comparison
Simply put, it is to test the reasonableness of the project manager’s “official” cost position against a statistical range of possible EV forecasts. EV forecasts can quickly provide management with an understanding of the cost risk facing any project. Answer: EVPM Independent Statistical EAC Comparison
[object Object],EVPM Independent Statistical EAC Comparison
Time Management: Predicting the Projects  Final Completion Date
[object Object],[object Object],Time Management
[object Object],Time Management
[object Object],Time Management
[object Object],Time Management
[object Object],[object Object],SV = EV – PV  Time Management
[object Object],Time Management
“ Do not rely on EV schedule variance alone to help predict the final completion date for a project.  Time Management
Fig 16: Monitoring the earned value schedule performance  Status date  Planned value  Earned value  2 months behind  2 months late? Budget  Budget  100% 75% 50% 25% Year 2 Year 1
[object Object],Everyone on overtime  or Bring in more people for this job  Time Management
[object Object],Negative schedule variance indicates that the project is running behind in accomplishing its planned work, that is, it is running a schedule position of less than 1.0 as shown.  Time Management
Fig 17: Earned value schedule variances must be analyzed  Compare late earned value tasks against the critical path and high risk tasks 1.00 + – Status date  Cumulative SPI Baseline Plan These tasks are late to the baseline schedule  Time
[object Object],[object Object],Recommendation  Time Management
[object Object],Time Management
[object Object],Time Management
[object Object],Time Management
[object Object],Time Management
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Time Management
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Time Management
Activation Limits of EVM Indices
Fig 18 Activation Limits of EVM Indices   Index Thresholds Action SPI /CPI Greater than 1.25 Work ahead of schedule, should use time on other problem / issues.  Very good productivity should use improvement on other problem / issues. Between 0.9 and 1.25 Schedule as expected. No action.  Productivity as expected. No action. Between 0.75 and 0.9 Warning! Work getting behind schedule, should act to get on track / Warning! Productivity low should act to get on track Less than 0.75 Out of control
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Activation Limits of EVM Indices
[object Object],[object Object],Activation Limits of EVM Indices
Three Factors Determine  the Final Project Results
[object Object],Three Factors
Factor-1: The quality of project baseline plan ,[object Object],“ FIRE FIRST AND AIM LATER”  Three Factors
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Three Factors
[object Object],Three Factors
Factor-2: Actual performance against the approved baseline plan  ,[object Object],Three Factors
Factor-3: Management’s determination to influence the final results  ,[object Object],Three Factors
[object Object],[object Object],Three Factors
[object Object],[object Object],Three Factors
Forecasting Final Project Status - TCPI Metric
Forecasting Final Project Status -  TCPI Metric ,[object Object],TCPI = on the status check date Work remaining Funds remaining
Fig 19: The To-Complete (the work) Performance Index (TCPI) Work remaining Funds remaining = TCPI Formula: 1.00 + – Status date  Cumulative CPI Baseline Plan TCPI
[object Object],“ What performance factor (CPI) must the project achieve in order to stay within the tangible future financial goal?” ,[object Object],Forecasting Final Project Status -  TCPI Metric
[object Object],Forecasting Final Project Status -  TCPI Metric
TCPI using management’s  “ Budget at Completion”   (BAC): Fig 20: Two “To-Complete Performance Index” (TCPI) Formulas  TCPI using the Project Manager’s  “ Estimate at Completion”   (EAC): Work Remaining (BAC – EV) Funds Remaining (BAC – AC) = TCPI (BAC) Work Remaining (BAC – EV) Funds Remaining (EAC – AC) = TCPI (EAC)
The TCPI Using Management's Budget at Completion
The TCPI Using Management Budgets at Completion ,[object Object]
[object Object],“ Will the current overrun cause the project to need more funds than management has authorized in its budget (BAC)?” The TCPI Using Management Budgets at Completion
Fig 21: The relationship of Cumulative CPI versus TCPI Status date at 50% Complete  Sunk Costs  Opportunity Costs  1.00 + – Cumulative CPI Baseline Plan TCPI .75 1.25
[object Object],The TCPI Using Management Budgets at Completion
[object Object],The TCPI Using Management Budgets at Completion
[object Object],[object Object],The TCPI Using Management Budgets at Completion
[object Object],The TCPI Using Management Budgets at Completion
[object Object],[object Object],The TCPI Using Management Budgets at Completion
The TCPI Using  The PM’s Estimate  at Completion (EAC)
The TCPI Using The PM’s Estimate at Completion (EAC)   ,[object Object],“ What is the real number needed to complete the project, the estimate at completion (EAC)?
The TCPI Using The PM’s Estimate at Completion (EAC)   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The TCPI Using The PM’s Estimate at Completion (EAC)   ,[object Object]
The TCPI Using The PM’s Estimate at Completion (EAC)   ,[object Object],[object Object]
The TCPI Using The PM’s Estimate at Completion (EAC)   ,[object Object]
Fig 22: Using the TCPI to validate the Project Manager’s EAC  1.00 + – Cumulative CPI Baseline Plan PM EAC (1) (2) (3) Math EAC Cum. CPI EAC CPI x SPI EAC
The TCPI Using The PM’s Estimate at Completion (EAC)   ,[object Object]
The TCPI Using The PM’s Estimate at Completion (EAC)   ,[object Object],[object Object]
The TCPI Using The PM’s Estimate at Completion (EAC)   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The TCPI Using The PM’s Estimate at Completion (EAC)   ,[object Object],[object Object]
The TCPI Using The PM’s Estimate at Completion (EAC)   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The TCPI Using The PM’s Estimate at Completion (EAC)   ,[object Object]
Methods Used to  Plan and Measure EV
Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV ,[object Object],[object Object]
Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV ,[object Object],[object Object]
Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV ,[object Object],[object Object]
Fig 23: EV Measurement Methods Typically used for non-recurring tasks Used for either non-recurring or recurring tasks 1. Milestones weighted values. 2. Fixed formula (40/60, 25/75, 50/50 etc). 3. Percent complete estimates. 4. Percent complete with milestone gates. 5. Equivalent units. 6. Earned standards.
1. Milestones with Weighted Values  ,[object Object],[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV
[object Object],[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV
Fig 24:  Measure Earned Value with the Project Schedule  1. Milestones with Weighted Values 2. Fixed formula which adds to 100% 25% 75% 50% 50% 40% 60% 3. Percent complete estimates  100% 4. Percent complete with Milestone Gates  33% 67% 100%
2. Fixed (Start/Finish) Formula by Task: (40/60, 25/75, 50/50 etc.  ,[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV
[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV
3. Percent Complete Estimates ,[object Object],[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV
[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV
[object Object],[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV
[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV
[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV
4. A Combination of Percent with Milestone Gates ,[object Object],[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV
[object Object],[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV
5. Equivalent Completed Units ,[object Object],[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV
6. Earned Standards ,[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV
[object Object],[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV
The Genesis and Evolution  of Earned Value
[object Object],The Genesis and Evolution of Earned Value
Phase 0 – The Factory Floor: In the late 1800s ,[object Object],[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV
[object Object],[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV Phase 0
Phase 1 – PERT / Cost: 1962-1965  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV Phase 1
[object Object],[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV Phase 1
[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV Phase 1
[object Object],[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV Phase 1
[object Object],[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV Phase 1
[object Object],[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV Phase 1
[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV Phase 1
Phase 2 – C / SCSC: 1967 to 1996 ,[object Object],[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV
[object Object],[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV Phase 2
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV Phase 2
[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV Phase 2
Phase 3 – Earned Value Management (ANSI/ EIA 748): 1996 to the Present ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV
[object Object],[object Object],Method’s used to Plan and Measure EV Phase 3
Fig 25: Getting back to Earned Value Basics  Factory Floor ------------------------ 1890 PERT / COST -------------------------- 1962 C / SCSC ------------------------ 1967-1996 EVM ANSI-EIA-748 Standard -- 1998 Simple EVPM ------ into 21 st  Century
EPILOGUE  Focussing on Value of Work Accomplished (i.e. the earned value)
What Do Project Managers Want to Know?
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],What do Project Managers want to know? Earned value asks and answers more important questions: ,[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],What do Project Managers want to know?
This is not  cost  performance, but rather  funding  performance. What do Project Managers want to know?
What is missing? What do Project Managers want to know?
[object Object],What do Project Managers want to know?
[object Object],What do Project Managers want to know?
[object Object],What do Project Managers want to know? A Rs 10 million overrun of costs
[object Object],What do Project Managers want to know?
[object Object],[object Object],What do Project Managers want to know?
[object Object],What do Project Managers want to know?
Fig 26 Is this any good? Time Cost Planned Cost Cost to date
[object Object],What do Project Managers want to know?
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],What do Project Managers want to know?
[object Object],What do Project Managers want to know?
[object Object],[object Object],What do Project Managers want to know?
[object Object],What do Project Managers want to know?
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Fig 27: The  DOD  EV  BOK
WARNING KEEP AWAY! Motto of unsuccessful project manager
“ Living with latent unease is better than facing the unpalatable truth”

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Earned value Project Management (evpm)

  • 1.  
  • 2. EARNED VALUE PROJECT MANAGEMENT
  • 3.
  • 4. Your comments on the situation?
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7. Earned Value Project Management Cost Variance (CV) Cost Variance = EV – AC (BCWP – ACWP) = Rs 60,000 – Rs 85,000 = (-) Rs 25,000 Negative value indicating cost overruns.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10. Earned Value Project Management Schedule Variance (SV) This is the algebraic difference between Earned Value of the work performed and the budgeted value of the work planned. In our case Schedule Variance = BCWP – BCWS (EV) – (PV) = Rs 60,000 – Rs 80,000 = (-) Rs 20,000
  • 11. You find anything odd about the measuring of schedule variance?
  • 12. Earned Value Project Management Schedule variance is being measured in monetary units – not time units.
  • 13. Earned Value Project Management A positive value for this variance represents work ahead of schedule, and negative value indicates behind schedule or schedule slippage
  • 14. Earned Value Project Management These variances not only tell the project manager about the true, rather than the apparent state of the project, they also ………………
  • 15. Earned Value Project Management In this case, the larger CV (42% of the EV) as compared to SV (33% of EV) tells us that we need to look more at the cost overrun aspects.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22. COST PERFORMANCE INDEX (CPI) 80,000 0.705 EAC = In our case it is ………….. = Rs 1,13,475.17
  • 23. COST PERFORMANCE INDEX (CPI) How would you explain the significance of EAC, SPI and CPI we have calculated?
  • 24. COST PERFORMANCE INDEX (CPI) EAC allows us to forecast the total project costs on the basis of efficiency with which work performance is achieved.
  • 25.
  • 26. COST PERFORMANCE INDEX (CPI) EV AC Compare What have you done by now (EV) To What you have spent by now (AC) You Get a reading on productivity called CPI = CPI Ratio
  • 27.
  • 28. COST PERFORMANCE INDEX (CPI) Interpretation of Indices ........Summary Table 1: Efficiency Indices Index Cost (CPI) Schedule (SPI) > 1.00 Under Cost Ahead of schedule = 1.00 On Cost On schedule < 1.00 Over Cost Behind schedule
  • 29. PLANNING FOR EARNED VALUE PROJECT MANAGEMENT
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33. FIRST QUARTERLY PROJECT STATUS REPORT “ We are right on our cost spending plan, a little behind schedule perhaps, but we are doing well” , would be the positive spin put on these results by most practitioners.
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38. EV requires a baseline master project schedule; or stated another way without a master project schedule, one cannot employ Earned Value. EVPM EMPLOYMENT
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45.
  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 48. Cost Actual spend Value generated Planned value Time These three quantities are the basis of all earned value performance measurements Fig 1
  • 49.
  • 50.
  • 51.
  • 52.
  • 53.
  • 54. EVPM EMPLOYMENT Although only at 20% completion point, by monitoring these three dimensions of earned value data, the project is forecasting a significant final overrun of costs.
  • 55.
  • 56. EVPM EMPLOYMENT Decisions After Project Quarterly Progress Review Project budget revised to Rs 1.5M Time schedule remained at 12 months Main performance objective Getting project back on schedule
  • 57.
  • 59. EVPM EMPLOYMENT The value of Earned Value Postmortem:
  • 60. EVPM EMPLOYMENT Will the use of earned value on projects prevent cost overruns? Question:
  • 61.
  • 62.
  • 63.
  • 64.
  • 65.
  • 66.
  • 67. TRADITIONAL PROJECT COST MANAGEMENT
  • 68. Internal Development Project ---The plan--- Fig 2: A typical project cost expenditure projection Authorized Budget 1,000,000 Cost Spend Plan Thousands (000) 1,000 750 500 250 1 2 3 4 Quarters
  • 69. Internal Development Project ---1 st Quarter Results-- Fig 3: Traditional cost management: plan versus actual costs Authorized Budget 1,000,000 Planned Costs = 300K Thousands (000) 1,000 750 500 250 1 2 3 4 Quarters Actual Costs = 300K Status date
  • 70. Internal Development Project ---1 st Quarter Results--- Fig 4: Earned value project management: 3 dimensional Authorized Budget 1,000,000 Planned Value = 300 Thousands (000) 1,000 750 500 250 1 2 3 4 Quarters Actual Costs = 300K Status date Earned Value = 200K
  • 71.
  • 72.
  • 73. TRADITIONAL COST MANAGEMENT VS EV PROJECT MANAGEMENT
  • 74.
  • 75. Fig 5: The Fundamental Differences Traditional Project Cost Management Planned funds = 300 K Actual costs = 300 K Variance from an expenditure plan = (0K) Earned Value Project Management Planned value = 300 K Earned value = 200 K Variance from the planned schedule = (- 100K) Actual costs = 300 K The “true” cost variance = (- 100K)
  • 76. Fig 6: Project S-Curves Cumulative cost (in thousands) 80 60 40 20 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 45 Elapsed Time (in weeks)
  • 77. Table 2: Budgeted Costs for Project Siera Activity Duration (in weeks) 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Total Design 6 2 - - - - - - - Engineer - 4 8 8 8 - - - - Install - - - 4 20 6 - - - Test - - - - - 2 6 4 2 Total 6 6 8 12 28 8 6 4 2 Cumulative 6 12 20 32 60 68 74 78 80 80
  • 78. Fig 7: Project Siera’s S-Curve showing negative Variance Cumulative cost (in thousands) 80 60 40 20 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 45 Elapsed Time (in weeks) 10,000 Negative Var. Cumulative Budgeted Cost Cumulative Actual Cost
  • 80.
  • 81. Is this good or bad news?
  • 82.
  • 83.
  • 84.
  • 85. COMPARISON OF TRACKING / MONITORING TOOLS
  • 86. Cost Project S-curves Schedule Performance Fig 8: Monitoring Project Performance S-curves
  • 87.
  • 88. Cost Tracking control charts, Gantt charts Schedule Performance Fig 9: Monitoring Project Performance S-curves
  • 89.
  • 90.
  • 91. Cost Tracking control charts, Gantt charts Schedule Performance Fig 10: Monitoring Project Performance Earned Value S-curves
  • 92.
  • 93.
  • 94. Forecasting the Final Cost and Schedule Results
  • 95.
  • 96.
  • 97.
  • 98. How do projects typically estimate their final costs? Question: Forecasting the Final Cost and Schedule Results
  • 99.
  • 100. What’s wrong with this approach? Question: Forecasting the Final Cost and Schedule Results
  • 101. Preparing a new ETC is a royal pain in the neck! Preparing a new ETC is non-project work . The very people who are performing on the project, who are often frustrated because they are running behind their schedule, must stop doing real project work and prepare a new baseline plan called the ETC. Answer: Forecasting the Final Cost and Schedule Results
  • 102.
  • 103. Fig 12: Monitoring earned value performance Perfect “Schedule” performance = 1.0 (for every 1.00 work planned you get 1.00 in earned value) Perfect “Cost” performance = 1.0 (for every 1.00 in cost actuals you get 1.00 in earned value) Good = +1.0 Plan = 1.0 Poor = -1.0 1.00 + –
  • 104.
  • 105.
  • 106. EVPM Independent Statistical EAC Comparisons
  • 107. 1. “The Mathematical” or “Overrun-to-Date” Estimate at Completion
  • 108. Fig 13: The “Mathematical” or “Overrun-to-Date” EAC Short EAC Formula: AC + BAC – EV 1.00 + – Status date Cost Overrun to date Long EAC Formula: Actual Costs + Remaining Work (BAC – EV) 1.0 pf
  • 109.
  • 110. First reason to use this formula: The Mathematical or Overrun-to-date is often the first indication announcing to the project manager and executive management the first indication that they may have cost problem on their project. If a project spends Rs. 300,000/- to accomplish only Rs. 200,000/- of budgeted work, the project experienced a “cost overrun” for the initial work that it has performed. Management deserves to know this fact. EVPM Independent Statistical EAC Comparison
  • 111. Second reason to use this formula: The Mathematical EAC is important because an early overrun does not go away with the passage of time. It is rare for an early front-end overrun disappearing through exemplary performance of the remaining work. EVPM Independent Statistical EAC Comparison
  • 112. In a project baseline, where are the best scope definition, best planning, best budget, and best scheduled dates placed; in the first half or the last half of the baseline? Question: EVPM Independent Statistical EAC Comparison
  • 113. Likely the best of every thing will be incorporated in to the first half baseline. Thus, if a project incurs an overrun in the first half, what are the chances of making a later recovery of the overrun? Little to none. This EAC formula provides a sort of minimum overrun that does not go away. Answer: EVPM Independent Statistical EAC Comparison
  • 114.
  • 115. 2. The “Cumulative CPI” Estimate at Completion
  • 116.
  • 117. Fig 14: The Low-end “Cumulative CPI” EAC Short EAC Formula: BAC = EAC Cum. CPI 1.00 + – Status date Cumulative CPI Plan EAC Long EAC Formula: Actual Costs + Remaining Work (BAC – EV) (Cumulative CPI pf)
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  • 122. 3. The “Cumulative CPI times SPI” estimate at completion
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  • 124. Fig 15: The High-end “Cumulative CPI times SPI” EAC There is no short EAC Formula Long EAC Formula: Actual Costs + Remaining Work (BAC – EV) (Cumulative CPI x SPI pf) 1.00 + – Status date Cumulative SPI Plan EAC Cumulative CPI
  • 125.
  • 126. What is the utility of providing a statistical range (low /most likely / high) of final cost results for a given project? Question: EVPM Independent Statistical EAC Comparison
  • 127. Simply put, it is to test the reasonableness of the project manager’s “official” cost position against a statistical range of possible EV forecasts. EV forecasts can quickly provide management with an understanding of the cost risk facing any project. Answer: EVPM Independent Statistical EAC Comparison
  • 128.
  • 129. Time Management: Predicting the Projects Final Completion Date
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  • 136. “ Do not rely on EV schedule variance alone to help predict the final completion date for a project. Time Management
  • 137. Fig 16: Monitoring the earned value schedule performance Status date Planned value Earned value 2 months behind 2 months late? Budget Budget 100% 75% 50% 25% Year 2 Year 1
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  • 140. Fig 17: Earned value schedule variances must be analyzed Compare late earned value tasks against the critical path and high risk tasks 1.00 + – Status date Cumulative SPI Baseline Plan These tasks are late to the baseline schedule Time
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  • 148. Activation Limits of EVM Indices
  • 149. Fig 18 Activation Limits of EVM Indices Index Thresholds Action SPI /CPI Greater than 1.25 Work ahead of schedule, should use time on other problem / issues. Very good productivity should use improvement on other problem / issues. Between 0.9 and 1.25 Schedule as expected. No action. Productivity as expected. No action. Between 0.75 and 0.9 Warning! Work getting behind schedule, should act to get on track / Warning! Productivity low should act to get on track Less than 0.75 Out of control
  • 150.
  • 151.
  • 152. Three Factors Determine the Final Project Results
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  • 161. Forecasting Final Project Status - TCPI Metric
  • 162.
  • 163. Fig 19: The To-Complete (the work) Performance Index (TCPI) Work remaining Funds remaining = TCPI Formula: 1.00 + – Status date Cumulative CPI Baseline Plan TCPI
  • 164.
  • 165.
  • 166. TCPI using management’s “ Budget at Completion” (BAC): Fig 20: Two “To-Complete Performance Index” (TCPI) Formulas TCPI using the Project Manager’s “ Estimate at Completion” (EAC): Work Remaining (BAC – EV) Funds Remaining (BAC – AC) = TCPI (BAC) Work Remaining (BAC – EV) Funds Remaining (EAC – AC) = TCPI (EAC)
  • 167. The TCPI Using Management's Budget at Completion
  • 168.
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  • 170. Fig 21: The relationship of Cumulative CPI versus TCPI Status date at 50% Complete Sunk Costs Opportunity Costs 1.00 + – Cumulative CPI Baseline Plan TCPI .75 1.25
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  • 175.
  • 176. The TCPI Using The PM’s Estimate at Completion (EAC)
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  • 181.
  • 182. Fig 22: Using the TCPI to validate the Project Manager’s EAC 1.00 + – Cumulative CPI Baseline Plan PM EAC (1) (2) (3) Math EAC Cum. CPI EAC CPI x SPI EAC
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  • 188.
  • 189. Methods Used to Plan and Measure EV
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  • 192.
  • 193. Fig 23: EV Measurement Methods Typically used for non-recurring tasks Used for either non-recurring or recurring tasks 1. Milestones weighted values. 2. Fixed formula (40/60, 25/75, 50/50 etc). 3. Percent complete estimates. 4. Percent complete with milestone gates. 5. Equivalent units. 6. Earned standards.
  • 194.
  • 195.
  • 196. Fig 24: Measure Earned Value with the Project Schedule 1. Milestones with Weighted Values 2. Fixed formula which adds to 100% 25% 75% 50% 50% 40% 60% 3. Percent complete estimates 100% 4. Percent complete with Milestone Gates 33% 67% 100%
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  • 209. The Genesis and Evolution of Earned Value
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  • 226.
  • 227. Fig 25: Getting back to Earned Value Basics Factory Floor ------------------------ 1890 PERT / COST -------------------------- 1962 C / SCSC ------------------------ 1967-1996 EVM ANSI-EIA-748 Standard -- 1998 Simple EVPM ------ into 21 st Century
  • 228. EPILOGUE Focussing on Value of Work Accomplished (i.e. the earned value)
  • 229. What Do Project Managers Want to Know?
  • 230.
  • 231.
  • 232. This is not cost performance, but rather funding performance. What do Project Managers want to know?
  • 233. What is missing? What do Project Managers want to know?
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  • 240. Fig 26 Is this any good? Time Cost Planned Cost Cost to date
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  • 247. WARNING KEEP AWAY! Motto of unsuccessful project manager
  • 248. “ Living with latent unease is better than facing the unpalatable truth”