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Elias Dabbas
Antifragility and Convexity
Guidelines for/from digital marketing
Convexity – Asymmetry
• …at Empirica, every day brings:
• A small but real possibility that they’ll make a
huge amount of money in a day
• No chance that they’ll blow up
• A very large possibility that they’ll lose a small
amount of money... the steady drip of losses
takes a toll.
The NewYorker
Image: @dhavalpanchal
Digital Marketing 101
Digital Marketing – One Strategy
• Establish yourself as an authority on a topic
• Do it so well that people* approach you to work with you
• You choose! (Optionality)
*customers, collaborators, suppliers, investors, etc
Digital Marketing - One Tool
*articles, tweets, videos, podcasts, academic papers, webinars, books, courses,
infographics, presentations, reports, data… anything that establishes you as the
authority
Valuable Content*
A typical day for the Digital Marketer
• …when creating content, every day brings:
• A small but real possibility that you’ll be offered
the job of your dreams, land a great
client/investment, etc.
• No chance that you’ll blow up*
• Gradually building a large content portfolio
across many publications (+ your blog/site),
strongly establishes your online presence… the
steady drip of losses takes a toll
*though there is a chance you might get cancelled, blocked, or Twitter-mobbed
Timeless topics > timely topics
Timeless(ish) Topics
No expiry date
• General, useful, guidelines/tools/explanations that help people
• “Would this content still be valid in five years? Will it age well?”
• Unlimited use and reuse your content as needed
• People can consume and share your content while you sleep
• Soon enough, someone will get in touch
Timely topics
• Super interesting today
• Absolutely useless tomorrow
• Invest in great content that
doesn’t expire
Timeless topics
Traffic grows over time (always valid, no expiry date)
Financial Mathematics
MINI LECTURES IN PROBABILITY
“Old” content, but still valid
Raphael Douady - Google Scholar
KeplerianFinance
The older a (good) academic paper the better (it gathers more citations)
Good content also ages well as it gathers hyper-links (citations) on the web
You will be googled
If there is nothing but a negative
article about you up there,
you’re finished
No valuable content
produced by you?
Super fragile
If you need a CV* you are fragile
*unless as an administrative formality
If your company needs a company
profile/slide deck* you are fragile
*unless as an administrative formality
Real World examples (with skin in the game) please!
Example 1 – Interactive Dashboards
Get involved in a forum about interactive
dashboards, answer questions, solve problems
Build my own portfolio of dashboards
• Every additional answer in the
forum adds negligible value
• Every new dashboard created…
• But collectively they establish
credibility
• Get asked by company’s founders
to do paid work
• Get a book proposal
Results
Example 2 – advertools
(open-source free digital marketing
software)
• Publish new releases
• Write articles
• Write documentation and
examples
• Repeat
• Get people to download/use it
“If you’re going through hell…
Keep going!”
–Winston Churchill
~0.5 million installs
Example 3 – This Presentation
Thank you

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Digital Marketing Strategies for Building Authority and Expertise Over Time

  • 1. Elias Dabbas Antifragility and Convexity Guidelines for/from digital marketing
  • 2. Convexity – Asymmetry • …at Empirica, every day brings: • A small but real possibility that they’ll make a huge amount of money in a day • No chance that they’ll blow up • A very large possibility that they’ll lose a small amount of money... the steady drip of losses takes a toll. The NewYorker Image: @dhavalpanchal
  • 4. Digital Marketing – One Strategy • Establish yourself as an authority on a topic • Do it so well that people* approach you to work with you • You choose! (Optionality) *customers, collaborators, suppliers, investors, etc
  • 5. Digital Marketing - One Tool *articles, tweets, videos, podcasts, academic papers, webinars, books, courses, infographics, presentations, reports, data… anything that establishes you as the authority Valuable Content*
  • 6. A typical day for the Digital Marketer • …when creating content, every day brings: • A small but real possibility that you’ll be offered the job of your dreams, land a great client/investment, etc. • No chance that you’ll blow up* • Gradually building a large content portfolio across many publications (+ your blog/site), strongly establishes your online presence… the steady drip of losses takes a toll *though there is a chance you might get cancelled, blocked, or Twitter-mobbed
  • 7. Timeless topics > timely topics
  • 8. Timeless(ish) Topics No expiry date • General, useful, guidelines/tools/explanations that help people • “Would this content still be valid in five years? Will it age well?” • Unlimited use and reuse your content as needed • People can consume and share your content while you sleep • Soon enough, someone will get in touch
  • 9. Timely topics • Super interesting today • Absolutely useless tomorrow • Invest in great content that doesn’t expire
  • 10. Timeless topics Traffic grows over time (always valid, no expiry date) Financial Mathematics MINI LECTURES IN PROBABILITY
  • 11. “Old” content, but still valid Raphael Douady - Google Scholar KeplerianFinance The older a (good) academic paper the better (it gathers more citations) Good content also ages well as it gathers hyper-links (citations) on the web
  • 12. You will be googled If there is nothing but a negative article about you up there, you’re finished No valuable content produced by you? Super fragile
  • 13. If you need a CV* you are fragile *unless as an administrative formality
  • 14. If your company needs a company profile/slide deck* you are fragile *unless as an administrative formality
  • 15. Real World examples (with skin in the game) please!
  • 16. Example 1 – Interactive Dashboards
  • 17. Get involved in a forum about interactive dashboards, answer questions, solve problems Build my own portfolio of dashboards • Every additional answer in the forum adds negligible value • Every new dashboard created… • But collectively they establish credibility
  • 18. • Get asked by company’s founders to do paid work • Get a book proposal Results
  • 19. Example 2 – advertools (open-source free digital marketing software)
  • 20. • Publish new releases • Write articles • Write documentation and examples • Repeat • Get people to download/use it
  • 21.
  • 22. “If you’re going through hell… Keep going!” –Winston Churchill
  • 24. Example 3 – This Presentation