A review of the 2003 Cramer Fire showing the similarities with the South Canyon Fire and demonstrating how the application of the Campbell Prediction System (CPS) could have prevented the two fatalities.

1. Cramer Incident WFS Solution 1
Another Way to Prevent aAnother Way to Prevent a
ReoccurrenceReoccurrence

2. Cramer Incident WFS Solution 2
Cramer Fire: A Tactical FailureCramer Fire: A Tactical Failure
 What went wrong withWhat went wrong with
the tactical plan thatthe tactical plan that
resulted in 2 deaths?resulted in 2 deaths?
 Each part of theEach part of the
solution needs tosolution needs to
answer the question..answer the question..
 Would this haveWould this have
resulted in theresulted in the
preferred outcome?preferred outcome?

3. Cramer Incident WFS Solution 3
Fire Behavior TacticsFire Behavior Tactics
 Tactics based onTactics based on expectedexpected fire behavior is afire behavior is a
prime requirement before engaging a wildlandprime requirement before engaging a wildland
fire. I would guess that the fire did thefire. I would guess that the fire did the
unexpected.unexpected.
 The overhead and firefighters needed the tools
to enable them to accurately assess the fire
situation and make good tactical decisions.
 They used opportunity tactics rather than fire
behavior tactics.

4. Cramer Incident WFS Solution 4
Developing Fire BehaviorDeveloping Fire Behavior
TacticsTactics
 Do all crew leaders and firefighters knowDo all crew leaders and firefighters know
how to obey the fire order tohow to obey the fire order to “base all“base all
actions on expected fire behavior?”actions on expected fire behavior?”
 Is anybody tested to assure they canIs anybody tested to assure they can
before given a line assignment?before given a line assignment?
 Since that is the primary cause of mostSince that is the primary cause of most
burnovers, the CPS training has focusedburnovers, the CPS training has focused
on how to accomplishon how to accomplish Fire BehaviorFire Behavior
Prediction MethodsPrediction Methods for all firefighters.for all firefighters.

5. Cramer Incident WFS Solution 5
Can You Describe theCan You Describe the
Potential?Potential?
 Conditions: Hot, Dry,Conditions: Hot, Dry,
NW to W wind 5-NW to W wind 5-
mph. Day shift startsmph. Day shift starts
at 0600. You are flyingat 0600. You are flying
the fire developing athe fire developing a
plan of attack.plan of attack.
 How would youHow would you
describe the dangersdescribe the dangers
of this assignment?of this assignment?

6. Cramer Incident WFS Solution 6
Defining TerminologyDefining Terminology
 If you decide the helispot, escape route orIf you decide the helispot, escape route or
safety area will not be a safe place to be insafety area will not be a safe place to be in
the afternoon,the afternoon, Time TagTime Tag them so your outthem so your out
of there in time.of there in time.
 If you expect the fire to spread to aIf you expect the fire to spread to a
location where it can endanger you,location where it can endanger you,
establish aestablish a Trigger Point,Trigger Point, a place wherea place where
you need to change tactics.you need to change tactics.

7. Cramer Incident WFS Solution 7
Defining TerminologyDefining Terminology
 To understand when and where the fireTo understand when and where the fire
behavior will change usebehavior will change use The AlignmentThe Alignment
Of ForcesOf Forces concept.concept.
 Know where the wind, slope and solarKnow where the wind, slope and solar
preheating forces align. That is where andpreheating forces align. That is where and
when the fire has greatest behaviorwhen the fire has greatest behavior
potential…potential…a time and place to disengage.a time and place to disengage.
 Locations where the forces go out ofLocations where the forces go out of
alignment may allow control.alignment may allow control.

8. Cramer Incident WFS Solution 8
Force Alignment - CramerForce Alignment - Cramer

9. Cramer Incident WFS Solution 9
Defining TerminologyDefining Terminology
 TheThe Fire’s SignaturesFire’s Signatures is a term that identifies theis a term that identifies the
variation of fire behavior invariation of fire behavior in differentdifferent
AlignmentsAlignments with the forces,with the forces,
 There is anThere is an InIn Alignment Signature, the headAlignment Signature, the head ofof
the fire; and anthe fire; and an Out of Alignment Signature, theOut of Alignment Signature, the
heel of the fire.heel of the fire.
 Determine the alignment of forces for a locationDetermine the alignment of forces for a location
and use the fire signature of a like alignment toand use the fire signature of a like alignment to
develop an understanding of what the firedevelop an understanding of what the fire
behavior will be like in that location.behavior will be like in that location.

10. Cramer Incident WFS Solution 10
Prediction Of Fire BehaviorPrediction Of Fire Behavior
SignaturesSignatures
 Determine the alignment of forces for a locationDetermine the alignment of forces for a location
and use the fire signature of a similar alignmentand use the fire signature of a similar alignment
on a burning part of the fire to develop anon a burning part of the fire to develop an
understanding of what the fire behavior will beunderstanding of what the fire behavior will be
like in the new location.like in the new location.
 If the fire has not made a run in full alignment inIf the fire has not made a run in full alignment in
your view, use your experience of what it couldyour view, use your experience of what it could
become in full alignment.become in full alignment.

11. Cramer Incident WFS Solution 11
Lessons LearnedLessons Learned
 Develop a complete understanding ofDevelop a complete understanding of when and wherewhen and where
the fire will change alignmentsthe fire will change alignments as it continues to burn.as it continues to burn.
 Use this understanding to develop theUse this understanding to develop the L.C.E.S.L.C.E.S.
 Identify theIdentify the trackstracks a fire will take and avoid them.a fire will take and avoid them.
 Do not plan an escape route that is in alignment.Do not plan an escape route that is in alignment.
 Leave before the fire makes its dangerous move and doLeave before the fire makes its dangerous move and do
not get run out by the fire.not get run out by the fire.
 Learn to relate your situation to past fires.Learn to relate your situation to past fires.
 Position yourself so that fire has to come at youPosition yourself so that fire has to come at you out ofout of
alignment.alignment.

12. Cramer Incident WFS Solution 12
Using Terms To EvaluateUsing Terms To Evaluate
AssignmentsAssignments
 The use of aThe use of a Time TagTime Tag of 1200 hours to get theof 1200 hours to get the
firefighters off the hill would have avoided the accident.firefighters off the hill would have avoided the accident.
 Trigger PointsTrigger Points to change tactics due to fire position onto change tactics due to fire position on
the terrain would have alerted them to disengage.the terrain would have alerted them to disengage.
 Recognizing theRecognizing the Alignment Of ForcesAlignment Of Forces that result inthat result in
variousvarious Fire SignaturesFire Signatures on the fire-ground would haveon the fire-ground would have
enabled a prediction of the fatal fire behavior.enabled a prediction of the fatal fire behavior.
 This terminology enables the firefighters to discuss theThis terminology enables the firefighters to discuss the
fire behavior tactics with the overhead personnel.fire behavior tactics with the overhead personnel.

13. Cramer Incident WFS Solution 13
Discuss this
scene
Develop the
proper fire
behavior
tactical plan
using the
terminology.

14. Cramer Incident WFS Solution 14
Aspects S,N,W @ 1500 S & W aspects are Hot Slopes
The Cash Bar drainage is in
full alignment with wind, slope
and solar preheating.
A Time Tag is
needed for H-2
Out by 1200

15. Cramer Incident WFS Solution 15
If the fire is moving
out of alignment with
slope, wind and on a
N aspect, when it
reaches the bottom it
will run the Cache Bar
drainage hard, in full
alignment.
All line firefighters
can be taught this
method of appraisal.

16. Cramer Incident WFS Solution 16
This is a full
alignment run
Learn to
recognize the
potential long
before you go
above a fire.
Leave before the
fire makes its
run.

17. Cramer Incident WFS Solution 17
This run
should not
surprise any
firefighter that
knows the
Alignment Of
Forces
concept.

18. Cramer Incident WFS Solution 18
No safety area
that would be
viable at 1500
in sight.
Why are
firefighters still
there?
No one set a
time tag or
established
trigger points.

19. Cramer Incident WFS Solution 19

20. Cramer Incident WFS Solution 20
Learning from the PastLearning from the Past
Or Repeating it?Or Repeating it?
 The South Canyon fire fatalities and many others haveThe South Canyon fire fatalities and many others have
the identical commonalities.the identical commonalities.
 Condition:Condition: Wind, Slope and at the peak heating periodWind, Slope and at the peak heating period
of the day.of the day.
 Situation:Situation: The firefighters were in theThe firefighters were in the fire’s track.fire’s track.
 The firefighters did not set aThe firefighters did not set a time tagtime tag..
 They did not know theThey did not know the Alignment of ForcesAlignment of Forces method ofmethod of
prediction.prediction.
 Did not reevaluate tactics before the fire reachedDid not reevaluate tactics before the fire reached TriggerTrigger
PointsPoints of fireof fire behavior Signaturebehavior Signature changes.changes.

21. Cramer Incident WFS Solution 21
The similarities are plain to see
between the South
Canyon fatal burnover and
the Cramer burnover.
Can you do the following?
• Establish the Trigger
Point where the fire will
change Signatures to an
aligned head fire.
• Draw the wind direction
arrow.
• Identify the track that the
fire will run.hot aspects.
• Identify a time tag to
reevaluate tactics.
South Canyon Spread Map prior to the fatal run

22. Cramer Incident WFS Solution 22
Cramer and South Canyon similarities
Both burnovers happened within 1/2 hr of
1600 when full force alignment was between
the position of the fire and the firefighters.
The Trigger Points for the
fatal run of the two fires
The location should have a
time tag before placement of
the firefighters.
H
H
H
H

23. Cramer Incident WFS Solution 23
Accident AvoidanceAccident Avoidance
 Firefighters….Firefighters….
 Must be able to recognize the fire’sMust be able to recognize the fire’s
potential.potential.
 Must be committed to make and to act onMust be committed to make and to act on
predictions.predictions.
 Must be able to recognize when andMust be able to recognize when and
where others are endangered.where others are endangered.
 Must not repeat historical errors.Must not repeat historical errors.

24. Cramer Incident WFS Solution 24
SummarySummary
 Use:Use:
 Time TagsTime Tags
 Trigger PointsTrigger Points
 Force alignment graphicsForce alignment graphics
on maps….wind and hoton maps….wind and hot
slopes.slopes.
 Identify fire Signatures thatIdentify fire Signatures that
are hazardous.are hazardous.
 Make fire behaviorMake fire behavior
predictions.predictions.
 Move before the fireMove before the fire
moves!!moves!!
 LIVE!LIVE!

25. Cramer Incident WFS Solution 25
The Campbell PredictionThe Campbell Prediction
SystemSystem
 E-mail:E-mail: dougsfire@gmail.comdougsfire@gmail.com
 Web site:Web site: cps.emxsys..comcps.emxsys..com
 Agency trainers list is available onAgency trainers list is available on
request.request.