Japanese earthquakes 1911 2011 lessons learned
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Presentation courtesy of Dr Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction
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Más de Professor Eric K. Noji, M.D., MPH, DTMH(Lon), FRCP(UK)hon
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Japanese earthquakes 1911 2011 lessons learned
- 2. LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES
- 3. NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE JAPAN’S NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE JAPAN’S COMMUNITIES AT RISK COMMUNITIES AT RISK EARTHQUAKES/TSUNAMIS GOAL: DISASTER GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCE RESILIENCE TYPHOONS ENACT AND IMPLEMENT ENACT AND IMPLEMENT FLOODS POLICIES HAVING HIGH POLICIES HAVING HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR BENEFIT/COST FOR LANDSLIDES COMMUNITY COMMUNITY RESILIENCE RESILIENCE VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
- 6. REGIONAL MAP
- 7. EARTHQUAKES EARTHQUAKES OCCUR FREQUENTLY IN THE PHILIPPINES AS A RESULT OF COMPLEX INTERACTIONS OF THE PHILIPPINE AND EURASIAN PLATES
- 8. EARTHQUAKE RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK • QUAKE HAZARDS • RISK BLDG. INVENTORY • VULNERABILITY UNACCEPTABLE RISK • LOCATION GOAL: EARTHQUAKE PHILIPPINES’ DISASTER RESILIENCE DATA BASES AND INFORMATION COMMUNITIES POLICY OPTIONS • PREPAREDNESS HAZARDS: • PROTECTION GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE • EARLY WARNING SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC • EMERGENCY RESPONSE DEFORMATION • RECOVERY and TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS RECONSTRUCTION
- 9. CAUSES OF DAMAGE CAUSES OF DAMAGE INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION EARTHQUAKES AND PLAN EARTHQUAKES “DISASTER “DISASTER TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP LABORATORIES” LABORATORIES” POOR DETAILING AND WEAK CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS FRAGILITY OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
- 10. SOME OF JAPAN’S NOTABLE EARTHQUAKE EXPERIENCES 1923 JUNE 16, 1964 JANUARY 17, 1995 MARCH 11, 2011
- 11. LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE • ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKES • PREPAREDNESS PLANNING FOR THE INEVITABLE GROUND SHAKING IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.
- 12. LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE • ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKES • PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.
- 13. LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE • ALL NATURAL HAZARDS • CAPACITY FOR INTELLIGENT EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.
- 14. THE GREAT KANTO EARTHQUAKE: SEPT 1, 1923 • The Mw7.9 Great Kanto earthquake, the worst in Japanese history, struck the Kanto Plain near Tokyo in 1923 and resulted in the deaths of 140,000 people. • The fiery conflagration that followed the earthquake was more deadly than the earthquake’s ground shaking.
- 15. THE NIIGATA EARTHQUAKE: JUNE 16, 1964 • The M7.5 Niigata earthquake devastated Niigata, located 50 km south of the epicenter, mainly as a result of massive soil failure and tsunami waves. • Although the quake only left 36 dead or missing and 385 injured, the material damage was great: 3,534 houses destroyed, 11,000 houses damaged.
- 16. THE GREAT HANSHIN (KOBE) EARTHQUAKE: JAN. 17, 1995 • The M6.8 Kobe devastated Kobe. • Ground shaking and fires together destroyed over 150,000 buildings and left about 300,000 people homeless, 6,434 dead, 415,000 injured, and economic losses of $200 billion
- 21. THE TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE: JAN. 17, 1995 • The M9.0 Tojoku earthquake was huge, but its ground shaking did NOT cause the disaster that killed an estimated 21,000 people … • The tsunami generated by the earthquake did!
- 22. TOHOKU QUAKE: THE RESULT OF PLATE TECTONICS
- 23. AN OFFSHORE EPICENTER • It only took seconds for the P- and S-waves to reach Sendai, and about 15 minutes for the tsunami waves, but what a difference in damage..
- 24. THE GROUND SHAKING • Strong ground shaking lasted 300 seconds (compared with about 10 - 20 seconds for the 1995 Kobe, Japan quake). • But, the ground shaking did not cause the disaster this time; the tsunami did.
- 25. TOHOKU: SUMMARY OF SOCIETAL IMPACTS • The earthquake ground shaking and the tsunami wave run up together caused major damage to 1.2 million buildings. • Simultaneously, wide spread fires burned out of control. • Economic losses were estimated at $574 billion.
- 26. LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE • ALL NATURAL HAZARDS • CAPACITY FOR RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.
- 27. WHAT COULD BE THE NEXT EARTH- QUAKE DISASTER FOR JAPAN • A difficult question, but --- • It is one that was being asked before the March 11, 2011 TOHOKU earthquake disaster.
- 29. TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS • The Nankai trough marks the boundary where the Philippines tectonic plate is subducting beneath Japan (part of the Eurasian plate).
- 30. TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS • The section along Tokai has not ruptured since 1854.
- 31. TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS • The recurrence interval of large- magnitude earthquakes along this boundary is believed to be 100-150 years.
- 32. TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS • At present, the land near Shizuoka is sinking toward the Nankai trough at about 5 mm/yr. • Japan’s Earthquake Research Institute is on record that the Tokai earthquake could happen anytime.
- 33. TOKAI EARTHQUAKE • Before the March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake, the Government of Japan expected its next great earthquake to be “the Tokai Earthquake.”
- 34. TOKAI EARTHQUAKE • The precise area along the Pacific coast- about 160 km (100 mi) southwest of Tokyo-- that is expected to be affected has been delineated by scientific studies, • And, by law, this area is the focus of intensive preparations.
- 35. FORECASTS: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE • Estimated deaths — between 7,900 and 9,200 depending on the amount of advance warning people have, the time of day when it occurs, and the tsunami.
- 36. FORECASTS: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE • Estimated property damage –- as much as $310 billion.
- 37. FORECASTS: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE • Landslides -- 6,449 specific locations • Structures susceptible to quake-related fires – 58,402 specific houses
- 38. TOKAI EARTHQUAKE • The Government of Japan has an “early warning action plan based on the concept of “pre-slip.” • Pre-slip is based on laboratory experiments, which indicate that a rock slips for a short time before it ultimately fails and generates a big quake.
- 39. MONITORING: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE • The Government of Japan is currently deploying strain meters throughout the Tokai area to record the slip in order to provide as much advance warning as possible.