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Aussie Dollar Sinks As Soft Data Boosts
RBA Rate Cut Bets
Aussie Slammed as RBA Rate Cut Odds
Jump; Euro Steady After Spanish GDP
ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP
The Japanese Yen, the Swiss Franc, and the US Dollar – the “safe
haven” bloc – are among the top performers for the second day in a
row as global risk aversion gathers pace once more ahead of
several significant events that will reverberate across the FX
landscape. Consequently, high beta and risk-correlated assets such
as the Australian Dollar are getting slammed today; the Aussie has
lost over -2% to the US Dollar since Friday’s close.
The impetus for today’s slide in the Aussie comes on the back of
the worst Building Approvals since August 2012, and the sharp
downturn seen from April-June (+35.0% to -13.0% y/y) is very
reminiscent of housing data seen at the end of 2008. While there
was a 44% chance of a 25-bps rate cut at the end of the July
meeting week, there is now a 92% of a 25-bps rate cut for the
Reserve Bank of Australia meeting this coming Tuesday.
In the event of a rate cut next week, I still believe that the RBA will
cut rates one more time in 2013, to bring the main rate to 2.00%.
Accordingly, the Australian Dollar selloff might not be finished
despite the consolidation seen in the AUDUSD the past month-plus.
Elsewhere, the Euro’s case for a strong week was bolstered as the
Spanish GDP (2Q A) report beat expectations slightly, affirming the
mild uptick in data seen in May and June. This week, the Euro could
be a top performer if the cards fall right; next up is the ECB on
Thursday.
TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE
1.3300 TGT 1.3320/1.3340
SL 1.3270
SELL USDJPY BELOW 97.60
TGT 97.40/97.20 SL 97.90
SELL GBPUSD BELOW
1.5300 TGT 1.5300/1.5280
SL 1.5330
HEADLINES
7. HOURLY USD INDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
USD INDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARIISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>.0138(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>38(BEARISH SIGNAL)
8. Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Sun
Jul 28
05:55
CNY Leading Index
(JUN)
Medium 99.55 99.72
23:01
GBP Hometrack
Housing Survey (MoM)
(JUL)
Low 0.3% 0.4%
23:01
GBP Hometrack
Housing Survey (YoY)
(JUL)
Medium 1.3% 0.8%
23:50
JPY Large Retailers'
Sales (JUN)
Medium 3.5% 3.6% -0.4%
23:50
JPY Retail Trade s.a.
(MoM) (JUN)
Low -0.2% 0.8% 1.5%
23:50
JPY Retail Trade (YoY)
(JUN)
Medium 1.6% 2.1% 0.8%
Mon
Jul 29
03:30
JPY BoJ Governor
Kuroda Speaks at
Research Insitute of
Japan
High
08:30
GBP Net Consumer
Credit (JUN)
Medium 0.5B 0.7B 0.8B
08:30
GBP Net Lending Sec.
on Dwellings (JUN)
Low 1.0B 0.7B 0.5B
08:30
GBP Mortgage
Approvals (JUN)
Medium 57.7K 59.7K 58.1K
08:30
GBP M4 Money Supply
(MoM) (JUN)
Low 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
08:30
GBP M4 Money Supply
(YoY) (JUN)
Low 1.5% -0.1%
08:30
GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M
Annualised (JUN)
Low 4.7% 4.4% 4.4%
10:00
GBP CBI Reported
Sales (JUL)
Low 17 10 1
14:00
USD Pending Home
Sales (MoM) (JUN)
Low -1.0% 6.7%
14:00
USD Pending Home
Sales (YoY) (JUN)
Medium 11.5% 12.5%
14:30
USD Dallas Fed
Manufacturing Activity
(JUL)
Low 7.3 6.5
21:00
USD EIA Gasoline and
Diesel Fuel Update
Low
22:45
NZD Building Permits
(MoM) (JUN)
Low 1.3%
ECONOMIC CALLENDER
9. 23:30
JPY Household
Spending (YoY) (JUN)
Medium 1.3% -1.6%
23:30
JPY Jobless Rate
(JUN)
Medium 4.0% 4.1%
23:30
JPY Job-To-Applicant
Ratio (JUN)
Low 0.91 0.90
23:50
JPY Industrial
Production (MoM) (JUN
P)
Low -1.5% 1.9%
23:50
JPY Industrial
Production (YoY) (JUN
P)
Medium -2.9% -1.1%
Tue
Jul 30
01:30
AUD Building Approvals
(MoM) (JUN)
Low 2.0% -1.1%
01:30
AUD Building Approvals
(YoY) (JUN)
Medium 0.0% -3.2%
04:00
JPY Vehicle Production
(YoY) (JUN)
Low -6.2%
05:00
JPY Small Business
Confidence (JUL)
Medium 49.6
06:00
EUR German GfK
Consumer Confidence
Survey (AUG)
Medium 6.9 6.8
07:00
LIVE
EUR Spanish GDP
(QoQ) (2Q A)
Low -0.1% -0.5%
07:00
LIVE
EUR Spanish GDP
(YoY) (2Q A)
Medium -1.8% -2.0%
08:30
GBP Lloyds Business
Barometer (JUL)
Low 36
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Economic Confidence
(JUL)
Low 92.5 91.3
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Business Climate
Indicator (JUL)
Low -0.54 -0.68
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Industrial Confidence
(JUL)
Low -10.2 -11.2
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Consumer Confidence
(JUL F)
Medium -17.4 -17.4
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Services Confidence
(JUL)
Low -8.9 -9.5
12:00
EUR German
Consumer Price Index
(MoM) (JUL P)
Medium 0.3% 0.1%
12:00
EUR German
Consumer Price Index
(YoY) (JUL P)
High 1.7% 1.8%
12:00
EUR German
Consumer Price Index -
EU Harmonised (MoM)
(JUL P)
Medium 0.3% 0.1%
12:00
EUR German
Consumer Price Index -
EU Harmonised (YoY)
(JUL P)
High 1.8% 1.9%
12:30
CAD Industrial Product
Price (MoM) (JUN)
Low 0.1% 0.0%
12:30
CAD Raw Materials
Price Index (MoM)
(JUN)
Low 0.3% 0.2%
10. 13:00
USD S&P/CS 20 City
s.a. (MoM) (MAY)
Low 1.5% 1.7%
13:00
USD S&P/Case-Shiller
Composite-20 (YoY)
(MAY)
Low 12.4% 12.1%
13:00
USD S&P/Case-Shiller
Home Price Index
(MAY)
Low 152.37
14:00
USD Consumer
Confidence (JUL)
High 81.0 81.4
23:01
GBP BRC Shop Price
Index (YoY) (JUL)
Low -0.2%
23:05
GBP GfK Consumer
Confidence Survey
(JUL)
Medium -19 -21
23:15
JPY Nomura/JMMA
Manufacturing
Purchasing Manager
Index (JUL)
Medium 52.3
23:50
JPY Loans & Discounts
Corp (YoY) (JUN)
Low 2.06%
Wed
Jul 31
USD Federal Reserve
FOMC Meeting
High
01:00
NZD ANZ Business
Confidence (JUL)
Low 50.1
01:00
NZD ANZ Activity
Outlook (JUL)
Low 45
01:30
JPY Labor Cash
Earnings (YoY) (JUN)
Low 0.1% 0.0%
01:30
AUD Private Sector
Credit (MoM) (JUN)
Low 0.3% 0.3%
01:30
AUD Private Sector
Credit (YoY) (JUN)
Medium 2.9% 3.0%
03:00
NZD Money Supply M3
(YoY) (JUN)
Low 6.2%
05:00
JPY Housing Starts
(YoY) (JUN)
Medium 16.0% 14.5%
05:00
JPY Annualized
Housing Starts (JUN)
Medium 0.982M 1.027M
05:00
JPY Construction
Orders (YoY) (JUN)
Low 26.0%
06:00
EUR German Retail
Sales (MoM) (JUN)
Low 0.2% 0.8%
06:00
EUR German Retail
Sales (YoY) (JUN)
Medium 0.5% 0.4%
06:00
CHF UBS Consumption
Indicator (JUN)
Medium 1.46
07:00
CHF KOF Swiss
Leading Indicator (JUL)
Medium 1.22 1.16
07:55
EUR German
Unemployment Change
(JUL)
High 0K -12K
07:55
EUR German
Unemployment Rate
s.a. (JUL)
High 6.8% 6.8%
11. 08:00
EUR Italian
Unemployment Rate
(JUN P)
Medium 12.3% 12.2%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Consumer Price Index -
Core (YoY) (JUL A)
High 1.2% 1.2%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Consumer Price Index
Estimate (YoY) (JUL)
Medium 1.6% 1.6%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Unemployment Rate
(JUN)
Medium 12.2% 12.1%
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage
Applications (JUL 26)
Low -1.2%
12:15
USD ADP Employment
Change (JUL)
Medium 180K 188K
12:30
USD Bureau of
Economic Analysis
Release Annual
Revisions of GDP
Medium
12:30
CAD Gross Domestic
Product (MoM) (MAY)
Medium 0.3% 0.1%
12:30
CAD Gross Domestic
Product (YoY) (MAY)
High 1.6% 1.4%
12:30
USD Employment Cost
Index (2Q)
Low 0.4% 0.3%
12:30
LIVE
USD Gross Domestic
Product (Annualized)
(2Q A)
High 1.0% 1.8%
12:30
USD Personal
Consumption (2Q A)
Medium 1.6% 2.6%
12:30
USD Gross Domestic
Product Price Index (2Q
A)
High 1.0% 1.2%
12:30
USD Core Personal
Consumption
Expenditure (QoQ) (2Q
A)
Medium 1.1% 1.3%
13:00
USD NAPM-Milwaukee
(JUL)
Low 52.0 51.6
13:45
USD Chicago
Purchasing Manager
(JUL)
Medium 54.0 51.6
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude
Oil Inventories (JUL 26)
Low -2825K
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK
Crude Inventory (JUL
26)
Low -2060K
14:30
USD DOE U.S.
Gasoline Inventories
(JUL 26)
Low -1389K
14:30
USD DOE U.S.
Distillate Inventory (JUL
26)
Low -1227K
18:00
USD Federal Open
Market Committee Rate
Decision (JUL 31)
High 0.25% 0.25%
23:30
AUD AiG Performance
of Manufacturing Index
(JUL)
Medium 49.6
23:50
JPY Japan Buying
Foreign Bonds (Yen)
(JUL 26)
Medium ¥549.3B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying
Foreign Stocks (Yen)
(JUL 26)
Medium -¥56.7B
12. 23:50
JPY Foreign Buying
Japan Bonds (Yen)
(JUL 26)
Low ¥790.3B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying
Japan Stocks (Yen)
(JUL 26)
Low ¥349.8B
Thu
Aug 1
00:00
AUD RPData/Rismark
House Px (MoM) (JUL)
Low 1.9%
JPY Official Reserve
Assets (JUL)
Low $1238.7B
01:00
CNY Manufacturing
PMI (JUL)
High 49.8 50.1
01:00
AUD HIA New Home
Sales (MoM) (JUN)
Medium 1.6%
01:30
AUD Import Price Index
(QoQ) (2Q)
Low 2.0% 0.0%
01:30
AUD Export Price Index
(QoQ) (2Q)
Low 0.3% 2.8%
01:45
CNY HSBC/Markit
Manufacturing PMI
(JUL)
Medium 47.7 48.2
05:00
JPY Vehicle Sales
(YoY) (JUL)
Low -15.8%
06:30
AUD Commodity Index
(JUL)
Low 88.9
06:30
AUD RBA Commodity
Index SDR (YoY) (JUL)
Low -10.5%
07:45
EUR Italian Purchasing
Manager Index
Manufacturing (JUL)
Low 49.7 49.1
07:50
EUR French
Purchasing Manager
Index Manufacturing
(JUL F)
Low 49.8 49.8
07:55
EUR German
Purchasing Manager
Index Manufacturing
(JUL F)
Medium 50.3 50.3
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Purchasing Manager
Index Manufacturing
(JUL F)
Medium 50.1 50.1
08:30
GBP Purchasing
Manager Index
Manufacturing (JUL)
Medium 52.8 52.5
11:00
LIVE
GBP Bank of England
Rate Decision (AUG 1)
High 0.50% 0.50%
11:00
LIVE
GBP BOE Asset
Purchase Target (AUG)
High 375B 375B
11:30
USD Challenger Job
Cuts (YoY) (JUL)
Low 4.8%
11:30
USD RBC Consumer
Outlook Index (AUG)
Low 50.7
11:45
LIVE
EUR European Central
Bank Rate Decision
(AUG 1)
High 0.50% 0.50%
11:45
LIVE
EUR ECB Deposit
Facility Rate (AUG 1)
Medium 0.00% 0.00%
13. 12:30
USD Initial Jobless
Claims (JUL 27)
Medium 344K 343K
12:30
USD Continuing Claims
(JUL 20)
Low 3000K 2997K
12:58
USD Markit US PMI
Final (JUL)
Medium 53.2
14:00
USD Construction
Spending (MoM) (JUN)
Medium 0.4% 0.5%
14:00
USD ISM
Manufacturing (JUL)
High 52.0 50.9
14:00
USD ISM Prices Paid
(JUL)
Medium 54.0 52.5
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas
Storage Change (JUL
26)
Low 41
21:00
USD Total Vehicle
Sales (JUL)
Low 15.80M 15.89M
21:00
USD Domestic Vehicle
Sales (JUL)
Low 12.40M 12.43M
23:50
JPY Monetary Base
(YoY) (JUL)
Medium 36.00%
23:50
JPY Monetary Base
End of period (JUL)
Medium ¥173.1T
Fri
Aug 2
GBP Halifax Plc House
Prices s.a. (MoM) (JUL)
Low 0.6%
GBP Halifax House
Price (3MoY) (JUL)
Low 3.7%
01:30
AUD Producer Price
Index (QoQ) (2Q)
Low 0.3%
01:30
AUD Producer Price
Index (YoY) (2Q)
Medium 1.6%
06:00
GBP Nationwide House
Prices s.a. (MoM) (JUL)
Low 0.4% 0.3%
06:00
GBP Nationwide House
Prices n.s.a. (YoY)
(JUL)
Medium 3.1% 1.9%
07:30
CHF SVME-Purchasing
Managers Index (JUL)
Medium 52.5 51.9
08:30
GBP Purchasing
Manager Index
Construction (JUL)
Medium 51.5 51
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Producer Price Index
(MoM) (JUN)
Low 0.0% -0.3%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Producer Price Index
(YoY) (JUN)
Medium 0.3% -0.1%
12:30
LIVE
USD Change in Non-
farm Payrolls (JUL)
High 185K 195K
12:30
USD Change in Private
Payrolls (JUL)
Medium 187K 202K
12:30
USD Change in
Manufacturing Payrolls
(JUL)
Low 0K -6K
14. 12:30
LIVE
USD Unemployment
Rate (JUL)
High 7.5% 7.6%
12:30
USD Two-Month
Payroll Net Revision
(JUL)
Medium
12:30
USD Change in
Household Employment
(JUL)
Medium 160
12:30
USD Underemployment
Rate (JUL)
Medium 14.3%
12:30
USD Average Hourly
Earnings (MoM) (JUL)
Low 0.2% 0.4%
12:30
USD Average Hourly
Earnings (YoY) (JUL)
Medium 2.2% 2.2%
12:30
USD Average Weekly
Hours All Employees
(JUL)
Low 34.5 34.5
12:30
USD Personal Income
(JUN)
Medium 0.4% 0.5%
12:30
USD Personal
Spending (JUN)
Medium 0.5% 0.3%
12:30
USD Personal
Consumption
Expenditure Deflator
(MoM) (JUN)
Low 0.4% 0.1%
12:30
USD Personal
Consumption
Expenditure Deflator
(YoY) (JUN)
Low 1.3% 1.0%
12:30
USD Personal
Consumption
Expenditure Core
(MoM) (JUN)
Low 0.1% 0.1%
12:30
USD Personal
Consumption
Expenditure Core (YoY)
(JUN)
Medium 1.1% 1.1%
12:30
USD Personal Income
and Spending Annual
Revisions
Low
13:45
USD ISM New York
(JUL)
Low 47
14:00
USD Factory Orders
(JUN)
Medium 2.3% 2.1%
16:15
USD Fed's Bullard
Speaks on U.S.
Economy in Boston
Low
Sat
Aug 3
01:00
CNY Non-
manufacturing PMI
(JUL)
Medium 53.9
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