A discussion with the AGP Team, Addis Ababa, May 18, 2009

1. High Potential Agricultural Growth Areas: Alternative
Approaches and Considerations
A discussion with the AGP Team
IFPRI: ESSP-II
May 18th, 2009
Emily Schmidt
GIS / Rural Economic Knowledge Support Systems Coordinator
e.schmidt@cgiar.org
Mengistie Kindu
EIAR Forestry Research Center, GIS Specialist
mengistiek@yahoo.com

2. Outline:
– Spatial overview of Ethiopia
– Crop suitability analysis
– Concluding observations

3. 16% of the population is defined as urban, or
lives in a town of at least 5,000 people

4. Topography in Ethiopia is varies widely, even
across small areas

5. Annual rainfall varies across space
Rainfall is highest and least variable in the western part of the country
and the western slopes of mountains

6. Permanent rivers flow primarily in the highlands, but
also in some lower elevation areas

7. In July through September, seasonal rivers /
streams form throughout the country

8. Potential for irrigation is limited to specific areas
given the varied terrain that characterizes
Ethiopian topography

9. Primary transportation networks are concentrated in
the highland areas and specific international corridors

10. Population density follows the primary road network
Note: high population density in SNNP region

11. Transportation measured in market access displays large
areas of remoteness (>10 hours travel to a city of 50k)

12. Even with planned regional road upgrades, much of
the country remains disconnected to markets
• Less than 1% of the population of any region would improve their access to less than 1 hour
• An extra 530,000 people (3.7% of regional population) in SNNP would be within 3 hours
travel time of a city after regional road improvement.

13. Change in market access given modeled regional
road upgrades
Access to Cities of 50,000 Population (in thousands)
2006 Road Infrastructure
Region Total Access < 1 Access < 3 Access < 5 Access > 5
Population hour hours hours hours
Tigray 4,113 323 1,098 2,343 1,770
Amhara 18,365 1,243 4,510 12,020 6,345
Oromia 25,492 1,409 5,090 12,716 12,776
SNNP 14,313 328 3,270 8,915 5,397
Addis Ababa 2,805 2,149 2,805 2,805 -
Other Regions 6,711 772 457 809 5,902
Total 71,799 6,225 17,230 39,609 32,190
Percent population change in access with modeled upgrades on main regional roads
Region Total Population Access < 1 Access < 3 Access < 5 Access > 5
(thousands) hour hours hours hours
Tigray 4,113 0% 2.76% 9.76% -9.76%
Amhara 18,365 0% 2.92% 2.97% -2.97%
Oromia 25,492 0.60% 0.31% 4.17% -4.17%
SNNP 14,313 3% 3.71% 6.01% -6.01%
Addis Ababa 2,805 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Regions 6,711 0% 4.89% 0.70% -0.70%
Total 71,799 0.73% 2.21% 4.06% -4.06%

14. Traditional agro-ecological zones
• Wurch Belt: No rainfed crops grow n
•Frost is frequent, and afro-alpine
grasslands dominate.
• Dega Belt: Barley, wheat, and pulses grown
•No teff or maize expected to grow in this
belt.
• Weyna Dega Belt: All major rainfed crops
grown, particularly teff and maize grown
•Lower Weyna Dega is suitable for cash
crops such as coffee and tea
•Kolla Belt: Sorghum is the dominant crop grown
and teff and maize if rainfall permits
•Warmer temperature, with higher rainfall
variability and recurring drought conditions.
•Berha Belt: no rainfed cultivation possible
•Large-scale irrigation systems along major
rivers have been developed, particularly
along the Awash River.

15. Major crops in the traditional AEZs
• Dega
Belt: Barley,
wheat, and pulses
• Weyna Dega Belt:
Teff and maize
-Lower Weyna Dega:
Coffee and tea
• Kolla Belt: Sorghum
-Teff and maize if
rainfall permits

16. In general, transportation infrastructure follows
high suitability areas
•Transportation
infrastructure
follows many areas
delineated by the
Weyna Dega Belt
•There are certain
gaps between
major arteries
where road
infrastructure
could be further
assessed

17. “Three” Ethiopias
• The three Ethiopias,
defined by the Ministry of
Agriculture provide area by
administrative unit that are
either:
•Drought Prone
•Moisture Reliable
•Pastoralist
•We further disaggregated
these areas to “Five”
Ethiopias in order to create
separate moisture reliable
areas into:
•Humid lowland
•Moisture reliable – cereals
•Moisture Reliable - enset

18. Further Refining Crop Suitability Areas (EIAR)
Methodology
• Data used:
– Mean Temperature
– Length of Growing Period (LGP)
– Soils
– Slope
– Administrative boundary
– Others (protection areas i.e. forest priority areas, national parks), and water bodies
(lakes)
• Two classes Land Suitability were considered based on (FAO 1984):
– S1. Highly suitable: land having no significant limitation to sustain application of a
given use
– S2. Moderately to marginally suitable: land having limitations for sustained
application of a given use. The limitation will reduce productivity, and will increase
required inputs.
• The environmental requirement for each target crop and each
suitability class were defined by the findings of LUP&RD as set by
FAO-UN

19. Teff Suitability
• S1= NW,
W, SW, C
• S2 = E
EIAR, March 2008

20. Wheat Suitability
• S1= C,NW, W,
SW, S
• S2 = N, SW
EIAR, March 2008

21. Highland Maize Suitability
• S1= NW, W,
C, S
• S2 = NW,S
EIAR, March 2008

22. Lowland Maize Suitability
• S1= N, S
• S2 = W
EIAR, March 2008

23. Food Barley Suitability
• S1= C, NW
• S2 = N, C
EIAR, March 2008

24. Malt Barley Suitability
• S1= NW, C, E
• S2 = C, NW, E
EIAR, March 2008

25. High suitability belts and traditional AEZs
Traditional
zones are
similar to the
agricultural
suitability
zones following
FAO guidelines

26. Approximately 434,000km² are considered high
suitable areas for cereal crops
The high
suitability areas
for cereal crops
are primarily in
the highlands
where rainfall is
less variable.
Total high
suitable area
under FAO
guidelines is
434,258 km²

27. 16 percent of high suitability areas are remote
(more than 10 hours travel time to a city of 50,000)
• 84 percent
(365,898 km²) of
the cereal crop
high suitability
area is within 10
hours travel time
to a city of 50,000
or more people
• Specific areas for
infrastructure
improvement
could be further
investigated

28. Given topographic constraints, irrigation will be
spatially dispersed along areas with optimal terrain
Further
investigation in
potential irrigable
areas in the West
could be pursued.

29. Final observations
There are high variations in crop suitability and
agro ecology over short distances

30. Final Observations
Highly suitable land is scattered, and in some
areas is not linked to markets

31. Final Observations
Road infrastructure and access to markets
remains underdeveloped in many areas of the
country
Current access to markets Access to markets with Regional improvements

32. Final Observations
• Must confirm that location specific appropriate
technology is available in proposed investment
areas
• Irrigated land potential is limited – not by water
availability per se, but by land in appropriate
basins given topographical constraints
• Integrated AGP needs to have sufficient resources
to support infrastructure development for
agricultural markets
– Improved Road Network
– Electricity for cold storage chain
– Target irrigation projects

33. Amasegenalehu!
(thank you)