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Baltics Growth reporter q2 2010
- 2. Introduction
This report:
• Compares overall market dynamics (value and unit growth) in the
Fast Moving Consumer Goods sector across Europe.
• Is based on the sales tracking Nielsen performs in every European
market.
• Covers sales in grocery, hypermarket, supermarket, discount and
convenience channels
• Is based on the widest possible basket of product categories that are
continuously tracked by Nielsen in each of these countries and
channels
• Reports on the 2nd quarter of 2010
– Week 15, 2010 till week 27, 2010
• NB: Turkey data was reworked for Q1 2010
– Cigarettes were removed from calculation because of distorting effect
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- 3. Executive Summary
A poor Q2 in terms of volume growth rates, confirms the very slow
healing of consumer confidence
• In 2009 the Easter weekend was part of Q2, this year Easter was part of Q1
sales
– The shift in sales of this top weekend penalized the Q2 growth rates
• Beyond this calendar technicality it’s the first time European value growth
falls short of +1% since debut of the Growth Reporter in 2007
– Steep drop in Norway despite highest Consumer Confidence in Europe
– Germany and Italy are holding down the European number
• Greek / Euro crisis becomes visible in FMCG Spending
• Inflation is still under the 1% level
– Deflation exceeds -6% in Finland and close to -3% in Ireland, Portugal and Switzerland
– Price increase surge back to +2.7% in the UK and +3% in Turkey
• Volume growth rates were lower than Q1 in 15 of the 21 markets
– Hungary, the Czech rep and Switzerland are the exceptions
• Consumer remains doubtful on recovery
– Consumer confidence rebuilding is slow
• The East – West divide remains in place.
– Rampant inflation in Albania, Bosnia and Ukraine
– Falling volumes in Bulgaria, Baltics, Romania and Russia
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- 4. Europe overview (*)
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
(*):Austria, Belgium, Czech Rep., Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK.
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- 5. Latest volume trend overview
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- 6. Q2 2010 growth rates per country (versus Q2 2009)
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- 7. Europe Big 5 summary
Germany France UK Italy Spain
Nielsen Market
Index Volume*
Nielsen Market
Index Value**
Are consumers shopping more
frequently?
Are consumers spending more per
trip?
Are shoppers shifting
to value channels?
Nielsen Global Consumer
Confidence index 81 7 63 5 78 2 71 4 69 10
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as € , £ change vs. YAGO
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Very Negative: < -4%
Growth: between +1 and + 4% Negative: between -1 and -4%
•Nielsen Economic Current
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- 9. Austria Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 10. Belgium Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 11. Czech Republic Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 12. Denmark Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 13. Finland Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 14. France Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 15. Germany Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 16. Greece Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 17. Hungary Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 18. Ireland Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 19. Italy Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 20. Netherlands Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 21. Norway Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 22. Poland Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 23. Portugal Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 24. Slovakia Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 25. Spain Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 26. Sweden Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 27. Switzerland Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 28. Turkey Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
Cigarettes sales excluded onwards 2010.
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- 29. UK Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 30. Extended countries
Albania Lithuania
Bosnia Macedonia
Bulgaria Romenia
Croatia Russia
Estonia Serbia
Israel Slovenia
Latvia Ukraine
• Based on Bimonthly reporting cycles
• Categories covered in food and drug channels
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- 31. Albania Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 32. Bosnia Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 33. Bulgaria Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 34. Croatia Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 35. Estonia Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 36. Israel Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 37. Latvia Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 38. Lithuania Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 39. Macedonia Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 40. Romania Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 42. Serbia Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 43. Slovenia Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 44. Ukraine Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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- 45. Glossary
• Nominal value growth:
– Percentage change in value sales (expenditures) as measured by the total basket of reported
product categories
• Unit value growth (≈ ‘price’ change):
– Percentage change in the average retail price per unit in the total basket of reported product
categories
– The unit of volume in the basket varies by category (e.g. litres, kilograms, tonnes, etc)
– The change in average price per unit may result from:
– Price changes of individual products
– Change in the mix of purchased products; more or less expensive products, more or less
promotions, etc.
– Channel switching; more or less purchases in discount stores, or hypermarkets, or
convenience outlets, etc.
– Product or channel mix changes may be induced by price change or may just be the result
of market dynamics.
– The unit value growth reflects how consumers experience ‘cost of living’ in their actual grocery
shopping behaviour.
• Volume growth:
– Percentage change in purchased volume (quantity) of products
• The three components are related:
– ValueGrowth = UnitValueGrowth * VolumeGrowth
See attachment for calculation rules
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