In 2013, researchers at Oxford University published a detailed study of the impact of computing on employment in the United States, considering recent advances in machine learning and mobile robots. They analyzed each of the professional categories cataloged by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics based on a database of skills required to perform those jobs. The researchers concluded that 47% of current jobs are at high risk of automation in the coming years and decades and another 19% at medium risk. They consider that only a third of current workers are saved from replacement in the next one or two decades. All this will have a negative impact on the world of work because it can lead to an end to employment that will lead the world to political, economic and social chaos at the national and global levels.

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THE JOBS THAT WILL DISAPPEAR WITH TECHNOLOGICAL
ADVANCEMENT
Fernando Alcoforado *
In The Second Machine Age, the authors argue that the combination of massive
computing power with comprehensive networks, machine learning, digital mapping,
and the "Internet of Things" are producing a complete industrial revolution in same
scale as the transformations caused by steam energy and electricity. Boston Consulting
Group predicts that by 2025, up to a quarter of jobs will be replaced by softwares or
robots, while a study by the University of Oxford in the UK points out that 35% of
current jobs in the country run the risk of being automated in the next two decades
(BRYNJOLFSSON, Erik and McAFEEE, Andrew, The second machine age, New
York: Norton paperback, 2016).
Udo Gollub, CEO and founder of Sprachenlemen24 in Munich, gave a lecture at Messe
Berlin at the University of Singularity when he presented technology forecasts available
on the website <https://www.facebook.com/udo.gollub/posts/10207978845381135>, if
they are confirmed will strengthen the Informational or Post-Industrial Revolution that
we experience. In short, Udo Gollub states that: 1) the software will shred most
traditional activities in the next 5-10 years as the UBER has been doing with the taxi
service; 2) Artificial Intelligence such as IBM's WATSON can offer legal advice (for
now on more or less basic subjects) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared to
70% accuracy when done by humans; 3) by 2030, computers will become smarter than
humans; 4) in 2018, the first vehicles will be driven automatically; 5) Around 2020, the
traditional auto industry will begin to be demolished, and most car manufacturers could
fail because technology companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will embrace the
revolutionary tactics by building a computer on wheels; 6) electric cars will become
dominant by 2020; and 7) the price of solar energy will fall so that all coal miners will
cease their activities around 2025.
Udo Gollub adds that: 8) there will be an impact on the health area because we will
have companies that will build a medical device (called Tricorder in the Star Trek
series) that works with your phone, scan your retina, test your sample of blood and
analyzes your breathing (breathalyzer). It will analyze 54 bio-markers that will identify
virtually any disease; 9) The price of the cheapest 3D printer dropped from US$ 18,000
to US$ 400 in 10 years and became 100 times faster; 10) 70-80% of jobs will disappear
in the next 20 years; 11) by 2020, there will be an application called moodies that is
already able to tell in what mood the person is and can know if the person is lying by
their facial expressions; 12) Bitcoin (virtual money) may become dominant in 2020 and
may even become standard reserve currency; 13) around 2036, people will be able to
live well for more than 100 years; and, 14) by 2020, 70% of all humans will have a
smartphone.
The professions most threatened by robots, according to Wakefield, are taxi drivers,
factory workers, journalists, doctors, lawyers, office clerks, merchandise delivery jobs,
police officers, etc [WAKEFIELD, Jane. Quais profissões estão ameaçadas pelos
robôs? (What professions are threatened by robots?) Available on the website
<http://www.bbc.com/portuguese/noticias/2015/09/150914_profissoes_robos_lgb>].
Taxi drivers around the world are threatened by Uber as drivers in general by vehicle
manufacturers that are already manufacturing units that do not require the presence of
the driver. Factory workers are threatened because assembly lines are being increasingly

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automated. The profession of journalist is threatened because in the near future, reports
will no longer be written by journalists, but by software capable of collecting data and
transforming it into minimally comprehensible texts. Doctors are threatened because
some medical procedures are done more quickly by robots that are already helping
doctors to perform surgeries. Office workers are already being replaced by smart
machines that perform countless of their tasks. Workers engaged in the delivery of
goods will be replaced by drones or vehicles without a driver. Police and military will
be replaced by robots.
In 2013, researchers at Oxford University published a detailed study of the impact of
computing on employment in the United States, considering recent advances in machine
learning and mobile robots. They analyzed each of the professional categories cataloged
by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics based on a database of skills required to perform
those jobs. The researchers concluded that 47% of current jobs are at high risk of
automation in the coming years and decades and another 19% at medium risk. They
consider that only a third of current workers are saved from replacement in the next one
or two decades.
Researchers at Oxford University have concluded that the blue-collar professions most
likely to be replaced by automation are as follows: (1) sewer diggers; 2) watch repairers;
3) machine operators; 4) tellers; 5) shipping, receiving and traffic clerks; 6) drivers; 7)
inspectors, testers, sorters, and samplers; 8) projectionists; 9) cashiers; 10) grinders and
polishers; 11) farm laborers; 12) lobby attendants, ticket takers; 13) cooks; 14) gaming
dealers; 15) locomotive engineers; 16) counter attendants; 17) postal clerks; 18)
landscapers and groundskeepers; 19) electrical and electronic equipment assemblers;
and 20) print binding and finishing workers. The professions least susceptible to
automation among the blue-collars are as follows: 1) recreational therapists; 2)
audiologists; 3) occupational therapists; 4) orthotists and prosthetists; 5)
choreographers; 6) phisicians and surgeons; 7) dentists and orthodontists; 8) athletic
trainers; 9) foresters; 10) registered nurses; 11) makeup artists; 12) pharmacists; 13)
coaches and scouts; 14) physical therapists; 15) photographers; 16) chiropractors; 17)
veterinarians; 18) fine artists and craft artists; 19) floral designers; and, 20) fabric and
apparel patternmakers.
Researchers at Oxford University have concluded that the professions requiring
intellectual work (white collar work) most likely to be replaced by automation are: 1)
tax preparers; 2) title examiners; 3) insurance underwriters and claims processors; 4)
data entry and brokerage clerks; 5) loan officers; 6) credit analyst; 7) bookkeeping,
accounting, and auditing clerks; 8) payroll clerks; 9) file clerks; 10) switchboard
operators; 11) benefit managers; 12) library assistants; (13) nuclear power reactor
operators; 14) budget analyst; 15) technical writers; 16) medical transcriptionists; 16)
cartographers; 17) proofreaders; 18) word processors and typists. The professions less
susceptible to automation among white-collars are as follows: 1) computer systems
analysts; 2) engineers; 3) multimedia artists and animators; 4) computer and information
research scientists; 5) chief executives; 6) composers; 7) fashion designers; 8)
photographers; 8) database administrators; 9) purchasing managers; 10) lawyers; 11)
writers and authors; 12) software developers; 13) mathematicians; 14) editors; 15)
graphic designers; 16) air traffic controllers; 17) sound engineers; and, 18) desktop
publishers.

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Technological progress will inevitably produce three consequences: 1) the decline in
consumption or general demand for goods and services due to the increase in
unemployment and the reduction of the purchasing power of the working population;
(2) the decline of the middle class with major implications of a political nature, since it
acts as an ally of the bourgeoisie in its confrontation with the proletariat; and (3) the
weakening of the struggle of the trade unions and of the class struggle between the
bourgeoisie and the proletariat. All that has just been reported will have a negative
impact on the world of work because it may lead to an end to employment, but it will
lead the world to political, economic and social chaos at the national and global levels
that will accelerate the end of capitalism as a world system in the mid of the 21st
century as a result of their declining yields (trend decline in world GDP- Gross
Domestic Product growth and in profit rate). The proletariat would cease to be the
messiah of humanity as advocated by Marx. The decline of the middle class where
white-collar workers are located puts in question its social ascent, whose marginalized
and frustrated members together with the proletariat can become powerful forces at the
service of social change for the benefit of all society or mass maneuver of fascism that
benefits the ruling classes.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 78, member of the Bahian Academy of Education and the Brazilian Academy of
Letters of Rotary - Bahia Section, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development
by the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning,
business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is the author of the books
Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um
Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os Condicionantes de Desenvolvimento do
Estado da Bahia (PhD Thesis, University of Barcelona, http: //www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944,
2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento da
Bahia do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador,
2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of
Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010),
Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São
Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global
(Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do
Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil-
Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes
Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016) e A
Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017).