This document discusses the internal dynamics and security situation within Pakistan. It outlines several divisive forces like religious extremism, sectarian violence, ethnic separatist movements, and provincial tensions that are destabilizing Pakistan and impacting its national security. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, Balochistan conflict, urban terrorism in Karachi, and center-province relations are highlighted as major challenges. The document also notes Pakistan's economic problems and how militancy has exploited poverty. It warns that if the internal chaos continues, Pakistan risks a fate similar to Yugoslavia through balkanization.
4. Pakistan, a beautiful land of 180
million Muslims, coastlines,
mountains, rivers, lakes and the
only ideological Islamic nuclear
state in the world.
A country with the finest armed
forces and great human resource,
economic, agricultural and
industrial potential.
5. A country which held great promises till 70‟s
and was considered an emerging Asian Tiger,
suddenly lost it‟s sense of direction and plunged
into a depression.
6. The process of decay which crept in, set into
motion religious, ethnic and parochial divisions,
drifting us away from nationhood.
7. On the socio – political side Pakistan is a
country which has seen and experimented
everything, parliamentary democracy,
presidential systems, martial laws, three
constitutions and number of interim
governments
8. But today, a nuclear armed nation is in a
state of collapse – The county is under a
massive 4th Generation war, asymmetric in
nature, which is triggering a rapid collapse
of the state into a failed dysfunctional
country – something like Somalia.
9. Since the apocalyptic attacks on the World Trade Center and the
Pentagon in the United States on September 11, 2001, almost 49,000
Pakistanis have died in urban wars, acts of terrorism, insurgencies,
rebellions and low intensity conflict being fought within the boundaries of
Pakistan.
Almost 60% of Pakistan army is deployed on active war duties within the
country and the armed forces have suffered 15,681 casualties while
fighting Taliban militants in the tribal areas since 2008 – with 2009 being
the deadliest year for them.
10. As the collapse of the Pakistani
state and security intensifies, the
presence of NATO/US/ISAF in
Afghanistan and India on the East
has now created a genuine two
front threat for Pakistan. India‟s
Cold start military doctrine is a
potent threat for the future.
11. I
R
A
Q
It is feared that if the present anarchy and chaos continues
Pakistan will suffer enormous losses. Unable to defeat Pakistan
on the battlefield the enemies of Pakistan are most likely to use
asymmetric warfare to weaken it from within. A fate not quite
unlike Yugoslavia may thus be sought by our enemies. The
Balkanization of Pakistan could be their ultimate aim.
The war which Pakistan faces today is called 4th Generation War.
The first model experimented for such a doctrine was
Yugoslavia. A country with the fifth largest army was
dismembered in just 3 years without any external land invasion
but through insurgencies, ethnic, religious, provincial wars and
economic collapse i.e through destabilizing internal security
situation.
Y
u
G
O
S
L
A
V
I
A
12. The same doctrine is being applied in various degrees
and levels, depending upon the country and the
military objectives, in the Middle East today. Somalia,
Yemen, Libya, Sudan, Iraq and now Syria ; time is no
too far that they would try the same strategy for Iran
and finally Pakistan and their plan for Pakistan might
not be different, if we remain reluctant to change
status quo of our deteriorating internal security
situation.
13. What is 4th GW??
Destroy a country through an
internal collapse and implosion of
the state via political, social,
economic and military means
without actually having to launch a
high intensity war from outside. In
Pakistan, they have deployed all
dimensions of 4th Generation War
simultaneously.
14. 1. Military dimension –
insurgencies, rebellions,
terrorism.
2. Political chaos. Corrupt
incompetent governments.
Provincial and ethnic hatred.
Democracy of the corrupt and
compromised.
3. Economic collapse through
corruption and financial controls.
4. Media and information war and
Psy-Ops.
5. Social chaos – power, food,
energy crisis and lawlessness.
16. SEQUENCE
• Part 1-Fissiparous forces causing National
Disintegration (Hannan)
• Part 2-Unifying forces that promote National
Integration (Usman)
• Part 3-Internal security Situation (Zaigham)
• Part 4- Ways Forward (By Farooq Butt)
17.
18.
19. • Religious Extremists have now resorted to militancy
to impose their version of Islam on the citizens of
Pakistan
• Amongst those, the most outlawed outfit is TTP
(Tehrik-e- Taliban Pakistan)
• In December 2007 about 13 groups united under the
leadership of Baitullah Mehsud to form the Tehrik-iTaliban Pakistan, but not all, Pakistani Talibans are
working under the leadership of TTP
20. • Among the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan's stated objectives are
resistance against the Pakistani state, enforcement of their
interpretation of sharia and a plan to unite against NATO-led
forces in Afghanistan
• The roots of the TTP as an organization began in 2002 when
the Pakistani military conducted incursions into the tribal
areas to originally combat foreign (Afghan, Arab and Central
Asian) militants fleeing from the war in Afghanistan into the
neighboring tribal areas of Pakistan
21. • On 25 August 2008, Pakistan banned the group, froze its
bank accounts and assets, and barred it from media
appearances. The government also announced that
bounties would be placed on prominent leaders of the TTP
• On 1 September 2010, the United States designated the
TTP as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) and identified
Hakimullah Mehsud and Wali ur-Rehman as "specially
designated global terrorists
22. • The Afghan Taliban and the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan differ
greatly in their history, leadership and goals although they share
a primarily Deobandi interpretation of Islam and are both
predominantly Pashtun. The two groups are distinct, though
linked, movements
• Brigadier (retd) Muhamaad Saad believes the Taliban are not a
monolithic entity. "They can be divided into three broad
categories: [Afghan] Kandahari Taliban, led by Mullah Omar;
[Afghan] Paktia Taliban, led by Jalaluddin Haqqani and his son
Sirajuddin Haqqani; and [Pakistani] Salfi Taliban [TTP], It‟s the
Salfi Taliban who pose a real threat to Pakistan and they may
not be obeying the Taliban supreme leader Mullah Omar
23. • Intelligence analysts believe that these TTP's attacks on the
Pakistani government, police and army strained relations
between the Pakistani Taliban and the Afghan Taliban
• Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar asked the Tehrik-i-Taliban
Pakistan in late 2008 and early 2009 to stop attacks inside
Pakistan, to change their focus as an organization and to fight
the Afghan National Army and ISAF forces in Afghanistan
instead
24.
25. • The Balochistan conflict is an ongoing conflict between Baloch
nationalists and the Government of Pakistan and Government of Iran over
Balochistan, a region which includes the Balochistan province in
southwestern Pakistan and the Sistan and Baluchestan Province of
southeastern Iran
• Balochistan is one of Pakistan‟s poorest regions although it has vast
natural resources. Baloch separatists allege that the central government
of Pakistan is systematically suppressing development in Balochistan to
keep the Baloch weak
26. • Shortly after Pakistan's creation in 1947, the Pakistan
Army had to subdue insurgents based in Kalat who
rejected the Khan of Kalat's decision to accede to
Pakistan
• A subsequent Baloch separatist movement gained
momentum during the 1960s, and amid consistent
political disorder and instability at the federal level,
the government ordered a military operation into the
region in 1973, assisted by Iran, and inflicted heavy
casualties on the separatists. Insurgency, however,
again gained strength in the 1990s and 2000s
27. • The Balochistan Liberation Army has been accused by
Pakistani state agencies of engaging in several domestic
violent incidents
• It has been designated as a terrorist group by the Government
of Pakistan. Internationally, it has been officially designated
as a terrorist group by the Home Office of the government of
the United Kingdom
28. • Brahamdagh Bugti in an interview stated he would accept aid
from India, Afghanistan and Iran which would help in the defence
of Baluchistan. Pakistan has repeatedly accused India, and
occasionally the U.S., of supporting the Baluch rebels in order to
destabilise the country claiming undeniable evidence
• In August 2013 US Special Representative James Dobbins said
Pakistan's fears over India's role in afghanistan are “not
groundless
• Defense Secretary and former Senator Chuck Hagel said "India
for some time has always used Afghanistan as a second front,
and India has over the years financed problems for Pakistan on
that side of the border”
29.
30. • According to the HDI, 60.3% of Pakistan's population lives on
under $2 a day, compared to 79% in nearby India and 81.3% in
nearby Bangladesh, and some 22.6% live under $1 a day,
compared to 24.9% in India and 49.6% in Bangladesh
• According to the United Nations Human Development Report,
Wealth distribution in Pakistan is highly uneven, with the top
10% of the population earning 27.6% and the bottom 10%
earning only 4.1% of the income
31. • Poverty has proved destabilizing factors for Pakistani society
that have been exploited by militant organizations banned by
the government to run schools and produce militant literature.
Though many madrassas are benign, there are some that
subscribe to the radicalist sect of Wahabi Islam
• As a result, militant Islamic political parties have become
more powerful in Pakistan and have considerable sympathy
among the poor. This phenomenon is more pronounced in
KPK.
32.
33. Pakistan is experiencing a sharp
resurgence in sectarian violence.
Sectarian conflict in Pakistan is the
direct consequence of state policies of
Islamisation and marginalisation of
secular democratic forces.
Some explain Pakistani sectarianism as
resulting from a proxy war ( i.e between
Saudis and Iranians).
Some say that it resulted due to Iranian
revolution and Gen Zia-ul-Haq
Islamization policy of promoting a
particular thought. Which ever version
is true, but it is fuelling terrorism and
religious extremism in Pakistan and has
proved so far detrimental to our Nation.
34. • Among those blamed for the sectarian violence in the country
are mainly Sunni militant groups such as
• It is widely accepted that sectarian violence in Pakistan is a
recent phenomenon and that for most of the country's history,
people of different sects have co-existed peacefully.
• The development of sectarianism is widely attributed to be a
result of financial funding of fundamentalist networks,
numbering in millions of dollars, by Arab states and other
outside powers inside Pakistan
36. • There is a fundamental difference between
and
,
• When political activism reaches a point at which street power
is used taking up weapons to enforce political will and
eliminating other political rivals, violent protests disrupt civil
life and stable government; and coercion is applied on general
masses to create financial inflows ; then Urban terrorism
comes into scene
• No civilized society can afford to stand by and allow urban
guerrilla warfare to be waged in its streets
37. • All major political parties in Sindh – the PPP, the MQM and
the ANP have militant factions in Karachi. Initially meant as
a self-defense mechanism on ethnic lines, their activities
now border on the criminal activities, way beyond the safe
line separating political activism from crime
• In Pakistan, targeted killings ,one of the form of urban
terrorism, have been a rising form of violence and have
contributed to security instability in the country. They have
become common and have gained attention especially in
Karachi, Pakistan's largest city and economic capital
38. • Urban Terrorism has to be tackled differently from the normal
means employed to maintain law and order as there is a vast
difference between terrorists and criminals e.g A criminal‟s
mission in life is profit, as such destruction is a secondary
objective, if at all. For a terrorist, destruction of life and
property and spread of terror are primary objectives
• In Karachi, several evidences indicates involvement of foreign
hands in distribution of arms and ammunition amongst urban
terrorists groups
39.
40. • Balochistan situation aside, there are other issues
which make the inter-provincial and federal-provincial
irritants another major challenge to reckon
• The issue of the centre-province relationship has
always been one of the most intractable questions of
Pakistan politics
• Pakistan‟s smaller provinces resent political exclusion
and are unhappy with the inadequate sharing of power
and resources within the Country because of varying
size, population, development and revenue generation
capacity of the provinces
41. Provincial Autonomy
• The powers of the provinces may look impressive when one
confines oneself to the distribution of legislative powers, but
when one examines the administrative and financial aspects
of the federal versus provincial authorities; dominance of the
former is clearly manifested.
• There has always been an argument that more autonomy to
provinces would be injurious to Pakistan‟s integrity and unity,
but in fact, the question of centre-province relations has been
masking the imperative for the ruling élite to keep a restive
Pakistan together.
42. NFC Award
President‟s NFC Award has never fully satisfied smaller
provinces who were bidding for a more broad-based division
than on population alone. Questions have also been raised on
President‟s powers to award. However, in 2010, the Govt takes
credit for coming into a consensus position on NFC. But the
issue will rise again
43. Income & Royalties
• Balochistan‟s demand on payment of income from excise
levied at gas well-heads and revised rate/share of royalties,
and NWFP‟s on hydel stations/ power are gaining momentum.
• Bugtis have been reacting violently, blowing up gas pipelines
leading the government to react with announcements of more
cantonments in the province.
• Both provinces have a case for net proceeds and revised
royalties in accordance with Article 161 of the Constitution
44. Sindhi Nationalism
This thinking has shown itself as a deep seated antagonism
against Punjabis and Mohajirs. In fact Sindh stands polarized
between Sindhis and Mohajirs. Sindhis control the rural areas
and smaller towns, while Mohajirs are predominant in the urban
centers
45. Water Distribution
• According to Indus Water Basin Treaty of 1960. Punjab was
deprived of three out of its five rivers. The Treaty, however,
stipulates that River Indus Water would be equitably
distributed among the provinces
• The present share of water is 40% each for Punjab and Sindh;
11% for NWFP and 9% for Balochistan
• With the passage of time none of the provinces is satisfied
with its present share, each province wants enhancement of
its share
46. Dam Controversy
• A project of national importance, KBD (Kala Bagh Dam) has
become controversial in Pakistani politics.
• Given the opposition to KBD, the government has wisely
backed down on the project in favour of Bhasha Dam for the
sake of national integration.
• All the issues have been technically negated by the experts,
however, petty vested political interests have disallowed
consensus on this project of national importance. Political
will has always been found lacking to move forward on the
project
47. The future threats for Pakistan:
Direct military attacks and intervention into Pakistan to provoke
a confrontation between Pak army and Afghanistan based NATO
forces. This has also begun. Drones, Salala attack and now
threats of attacks in North Waziristan.
US wants Pakistan to open war with Afghan Taliban also.
Pakistan already has its hands full in internal insurgencies and
hence is resisting the US pressure. While US is talking peace
with Afghan Taliban and their allies, Pakistan is being forced to
wage a war against Haqqani, Hekmatyar and Mullah Umer.
Direct attacks on Pakistan army leadership and on all strategic
assets to decapitate Pakistan in a single strike and then launch a
massive two prong invasion under Af-pak and Cold start.
48.
49.
50. ISLAMIC IDEOLOGY
• Addressing passing out parade of 127 PMA Long
Course, Army Chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani said
that since Islam is the basis of Pakistan‟s creation, it
can never be taken out from the body politic and it
should serve as
.
51. • It is Islam which had given a reason for the Muslims of
subcontinent to seek for a state based on Islamic Ideology
irrespective of their caste, creed, language, tradition and
culture
• Pakistan is neither a „theocratic state‟, nor a „secular state‟. It
is a territorial state founded on the Islamic principles of
democracy, freedom, equality, tolerance and social justice, as
enumerated in the Objectives Resolution
• Islam will remain a
in our society and a
and we can not separate ourselves from it
52. PAKISTAN ARMY
• With no exaggeration, Pak Army is considered as the most
prestigious institution in Pakistan.
• It has representation from all over the Pakistan and provides
equal opportunity of employment to every citizen in Pakistan
without any discrimination.
• It has always proved up to the expectations of the Nation
53. • Pak army and ISI orchestrated the destruction of Soviet
Union in Afghanistan and have blocked Indian hegemony in
the region despite Indian forces being 3 to 5 times stronger
in strength in conventional and unconventional forces.
• The whole nation pins its HOPE on Pak Army in case of any
untoward eventuality whether it be 1948 War, 1965 War,
1971 War, Kargil War, Escalation of 2002, War on Terror in
Western Front. Pak Army has always come to their service
in case of any natural disaster. It has even come in aid of
civil power to restore law and order in cities.
54. With most professional armed forces, Pakistan Air
force is the only Muslim Air force to have shot down
Indian, Israeli and Soviet fighter planes in air to air
combat in various wars
55. MM Alam is the Worlds best Fighter pilot with
world record to shoot down 5 indian fighter jets
in 57 seconds for unbeaten record
57. • Since Independence, India has proved to have
been bitter enemy of Pakistan
• This phenomenon is crystal clear to every
Pakistan that India is
of Pakistan
and even wants to remove her very existence
form the map of the world
• Our nation has always got
, whenever
India aggressed against Pakistan
58. • Initially people of Pakistan had
against TTP, but with increasing
and ruthless suicide attacks against innocent
citizens, this notion of doubt is no longer
prevalent in the society
• Now, every patriotic Pakistani considers
59. PATRIOTISM
Pakistan has a traditional
society which is full of several
kinds of inequalities and
various kinds of prejudices and
discriminations based on caste,
creed, race, tribe, sex, wealth
language etc. So in these
circumstances Pakistani
nationalism is the only ideology
of the Pakistani nation
60. PATRIOTISM
• Pakistani patriotism inspires all Pakistanis, regardless of any
discrimination, to defend Pakistan against all challenges of its
unity, solidarity and integrity. The principles of Pakistani
nationalism were proclaimed by Quaid-e-Azam in his speech at
Dhaka on 21 March, 1948, in which he said,
• “You belong to a Nation now, you have now carved out a
territory, vast territory, it is all yours; it does not belong to a
Punjabi, or a Sindhi, or a Pathan, [or a Balochi] … it is yours.”
61. PATRIOTISM
• Parochialism and regionalism must be
replaced by national integration and cohesion.
This is only possible through mutual
understanding and co-operation, tolerance and
unity in diversity and a policy of mutual
respect amongst the masses. The sense of
Patriotism fortunately still lies in the root of
our National Integration
62. DEMOCRACY
• The uninterrupted supply of democracy can
simmer down the ethnic and sectarian conflicts
ravaging Pakistan in at least several ways
• First, while ethnicity keeps societal groups fixed,
democracy offers a solution through their
mobilization
• Democracy let the individual come out of the
confines of an ethnic identity and yearns for a
social identity
• Democracy offers a medium for integration of
ethnic communities and sectarian groups into the
national mainstream
63. DEMOCRACY
• Democracy promotes (rounds and rounds of) negotiations
to make peaceful co-existence possible
• Democracy encourages the formation of an environment in
which an equitable distribution of economic resources is
possible
• Democracy keeps a country integrated. When ethnic groups
are marginalized, they yearn for a sovereign territory or try
to create one on their own, instead of letting people take
refuge in ethnic and sectarian isolation and perhaps
separatism, democracy offers a common medium to get
recognized with
65. • For a long time, Pakistan has been considered a
“national security” state – in part, because it has
been directly governed by the Army for most of
its postcolonial history, but also because most of
its policies focus on the “security of the state”
• Since 2001, the Pakistan Army has deployed over
150000 regular and Para military troops along
Pak-afghan border to combat militancy
66. • Even as Pakistan fights the War on Terror – and
remains a frontline state in this global war – it has
suffered over 44,000 civilian casualties and more than
5,000 military casualties
• In suicide attacks in the year 2013, so far 681 people
have been killed and 1245 people have been injured
(Data till Sep 2013)
• Total number of 458 bomb blasts incidents occurred in
2013 resulting in death of 1456 individuals while 3547
got injured
70. SECTARIAN KILLINGS IN 2013
Month
Incidents
Killed
Injured
January
February
15
26
124
141
176
227
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
8
4
2
6
3
15
6
9
4
4
48
68
28
9
2
0
14
88
182
42
12
TOTAL
85
435
743
71. • For its participation in the War on Terror,
Pakistan‟s economy has also suffered – directly
and indirectly – to the tune of approximately US$
68 billion as of government figures released in
the Pakistan Economic Survey 2010-11; a cost
that is now reaching US$ 100 billion as of 2013
• For a developing country like Pakistan, which has
now been relegated to the status of a frontier
economy, such costs are more than unbearable
72. • In the 21st century, national security and law
& order go hand in hand, especially for the
case of Pakistan, since the country is not only
facing an Islamic militant insurgency in its
western tribal areas, but is also facing the
fifth Baluch insurgency that commenced after
the unfortunate death of a Baluch tribal leader
73. • Apart from this two pronged threat on its western
front, Pakistan now faces radicalism and extremism
within its cities and rural areas: kidnappings for
ransom, extremist attacks on minority sects such as
Shi‟ites (or inter-faith killings, such as attacks on
Christian communities and on Ahmadi‟s), target
killings, and the unchallengeable “street power” of the
fundamentalist right – a mob mentality that forces even
moderates to join the fray because neither the state
nor its institutions would protect them and their beliefs
– are a reality that law enforcement agencies cannot
seem to grapple with.
74. • Recent arrests of terror cells in Lahore, and
targeted operations in Karachi (which have been
going on for three years now), do not fall under
the category of counter-insurgency or counterterrorism, nor do they appear as attempts to deal
with radicalism and extremism that still pervades
Pakistani society, and embeds itself in the
mindset of Pakistani citizens for reasons of
religious belief, association and marginalization,
even economic backwardness and poverty
75. • In addition, the “bhatta” or extortion culture,
which seemed limited to Karachi, is now
spreading across Pakistan, with cases being
reported in the Punjab and even in the federal
capital of Islamabad.
76. • The Karachi conundrum is the latest backlash that
Pakistan is facing for its role in the War on Terror. Targetkillings, kidnappings-for-ransom, mobile-snatching, armed
robberies, murders and assassinations have picked up pace
in the city, with as many as 1,726 citizens being killed in
acts of violence in the first six months of 2013 alone
• Not only are terrorist and political organizations running
amok in the provincial metropolis, but it also appears that
Karachi has become a battleground for sectarian groups,
and a stage for the “New Great Game”, where international
powers seek to establish and protect their interests by any
means necessary
77.
78. Thorough analysis of the causes of terrorism and its
ineffaceable impacts indicate that in Pakistan this
phenomenon has not come to fore overnight. It has
taken decades to flourish and involves many factors.
Since terrorism is a multifaceted, the solution has to
be multi-pronged
80. • In the greater interest of national integration,
Punjab‟s “big brother syndrome” needs to be
addressed
• Starting with 10 states, India now has 28
• Our Provinces may also divided on
administrative ground, instead of
ethnic/linguistic lines
82. • Involvement of foreign powers,
• The response has to be firm. However, While firmly
establishing the writ of the state, the insurgents need to be
engaged politically
84. Sustained democracy in its holistic form,
backed up by an independent Election
Commission, will bring moderate and truly
representative forces to the front, check
religiously radical parties and help improve
Pakistan‟s international image
86. • All political parties, government, opposition
and security agencies should develop
consensus for firm action against terrorists
• Political ownership of military action must be
taken for effective impact
90. • Government should immediately initiate political,
legislative and socio-economic measures with a view
to mainstreaming the agencies
• This will help establishing the writ of the government
in these areas.
92. • Utilizing the natural resources of the troubled
area, the process of industrialization should
start with reconciliatory approach
– Provision of employment opportunities to the
locals
– Redress sense of economic deprivation of the local
population.
– Inculcate awareness amongst the locals of their
positive role in the development process of the
country
94. • National counter terrorism strategy should also
account for madrassa reforms
• All the madrassas should be registered
• Their curriculum , financial patronage and training
activities should be under “CHECK”
96. • In order to fight terrorism, Pakistan‟s media
should play a key role
• It must point out the criminal activities of the
militants
• It should also indicate that Islam is a religion
of peace and does not allow suicide attacks
98. • They should voice true teachings of Islam regarding
Jihad
• They should openly denounce and declare suicide
attack against Pakistan as “HARAM”
• They should not keep a tilt to religious militants
relating to their own sect
• They should also emphasize on obtaining Modern
Education as a need of the time