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A Vision for Minnesota Solar: Lessons and Barriers from the North Star State

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Minnesota policy makers have set the table for solar to grow in this northern state, but are incumbent utilities willing to aid their customers' pursuit of solar? This presentation looks at the successes so far and who is best positioned to lead the growth of solar at a time of rapid technological change.

Publicado en: Medio ambiente
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A Vision for Minnesota Solar: Lessons and Barriers from the North Star State

  1. 1. A V I S I O N F O R M I N N E S O TA S O L A R L E S S O N S A N D B A R R I E R S F R O M T H E N O R T H S TA R S TAT E John Farrell Director of Energy DemocracyNovember 15, 2017 Presentation to the MnSEIA - Midwest Gateway to Solar
  2. 2. Installed solar capacity, Minnesota 37 MW P R E - 2 0 1 6 N O W ???
  3. 3. Installed solar capacity, Minnesota 552 MW 37 MW P R E - 2 0 1 6 N O W
  4. 4. T H E B I G P I C T U R E I S J U S T A S E X C I T I N G
  5. 5. S O L A R G R O W T H D E S T R O Y S F O R E C A S T S Source: https://twitter.com/ aukehoekstra/status/ 866313289306963969
  6. 6. Solar PV could provide fully half of global electricity by 2050 Source: http://bit.ly/2f6Anfk S O L A R G R O W T H D E S T R O Y S F O R E C A S T S
  7. 7. 1 I N S TA L L E V E RY 6 0 S E C O N D S United States, 2016
  8. 8. I T ’ S G E T T I N G E V E N B E T T E R
  9. 9. D O U B L E T H E R A N G E , S A M E P R I C E
  10. 10. I T ’ S C O M I N G F O R Y O U R F U R N A C E …
  11. 11. W H AT C O U L D S T O P U S ?
  12. 12. What game are we playing? A B C D E
  13. 13. What game are we playing?
  14. 14. “There is one great advantage that must follow regulation, and that advantage is protection" Samuel Insull
  15. 15. F I R S T S TAT E O V E R S I G H T O F M O N O P O LY U T I L I T I E S ( C . 1 9 0 5 )
  16. 16. M I D W E S T A N D M I D - AT L A N T I C U T I L I T Y M O N O L I T H
  17. 17. S E E K I N G S U B S I D I E S
  18. 18. O V E R - R U L I N G R E G U L AT O R S
  19. 19. C U T T I N G C O M P E T I T I O N
  20. 20. P O L I T I C A L J I U - J I T S U
  21. 21. C H O I C E C A N W I N
  22. 22. D E F E AT E D
  23. 23. R E V E R S E D
  24. 24. C A N U T I L I T I E S L E A D ?
  25. 25. “We come to work each day to do what we did the day before”
  26. 26. “An IOU divided cannot stand”
  27. 27. D I S R U P T I O N Photo credits: Donnie Ray Jones and Billy Brown via Flickr
  28. 28. S M A RT P H O N E I M A G E Raise your hand if you got your smartphone from…
  29. 29. From your landline phone company?
  30. 30. C H A N G E I S C O M I N G …
  31. 31. B AT T E R I E S A R E G E T T I N G C H E A P FA S T Actual
  32. 32. B AT T E R I E S G I V E C U S T O M E R S C H O I C E Number of commercial electricity customers who can subscriber to tariffs with demand charges in excess of $15/kW Source: http://bit.ly/2gK7fdO
  33. 33. B AT T E R I E S G I V E C U S T O M E R S C H O I C E Number of commercial electricity customers who can subscriber to tariffs with demand charges in excess of $15/kW Source: http://bit.ly/2gK7fdO
  34. 34. S O L A R + S T O R A G E I S G E T T I N G C H E A P E L E C T R I C I T Y C O S T P E R K W H 0 10 20 30 40 Hawaii, 2016 Solar + storage Utility electricity
  35. 35. V
  36. 36. W H AT M I N N E S O TA H A S D O N E R I G H T
  37. 37. A S TA N D A R D T O J U M P S TA R T T H E M A R K E T NM State standards NM State benchmarks NV AZ NM CO NJ DE MDNJ NM CO MD AZ MN IL Percent of sales from solar 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Installed solar
  38. 38. P R E S E R V E D FA I R P R I C I N G M N VA L U E O F S O L A R ( X C E L 0 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.15 Avoided Fuel Cost Avoided Plant O&M Fixed Avoided Plant O&M Fixed Avoided Gen Capacity Cost Avoided Reserve Capacity Cost Avoided Trans Capacity Cost Avoided Distribution Capacity Cost Avoided Environmental Cost 12.3¢ per kWh
  39. 39. E X PA N D E D O N - S I T E G E N E R AT I O N 2012 2013 Net metering size limits (investor-owned utility territory) 4 0 K W 1 0 0 0 K W
  40. 40. E N A B L E D C O M M U N I T Y S O L A R M N C S G C A PA C I T Y ( N O V 2 0 1 7 ) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2015 2016 2017 Utility Type - Cooperative - Investor-Owned Utility - Public Power Available Limited by tech or customer type Utility option to offer Virtual Net Metering Policy Megawatts
  41. 41. E N A B L E D C O M M U N I T Y S O L A R M N C S G C A PA C I T Y ( N O V 2 0 1 7 ) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2015 2016 2017 Utility Type - Cooperative - Investor-Owned Utility - Public Power Available Limited by tech or customer type Utility option to offer Virtual Net Metering Policy Megawatts
  42. 42. S O L A R O N S C H O O L S Credit: IPS Solar $7.7 million over 25 years
  43. 43. W H AT M O R E C A N W E D O ?
  44. 44. 30% 23% 49% 47% 34% 40% 32% 50% 31% 25% 35% 57% 26% 32% 39% 47% 35% 23% 74% 40% 34% 31% 27% 34% 26% 28% 14% 34% 44% 34% 44% 24% 39% 34% 42% 39% 36% 40% 33% 30% 37% 46% 30% 35% 37% 60% 53% 60% All buildings Source: http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/65298.pdf R O O F T O P S O L A R P O T E N T I A L 43% 43% POTENTIAL PERCENT OF POWER FROM LOCAL ROOFTOP SOLAR Over 50% 40 to 50% 25 to 40% 11 to 25% 2008 data
  45. 45. R I S I N G R E TA I L E L E C T R I C I T Y P R I C E S (Residential, ¢ per kilowatt-hour)
  46. 46. K E E P O N B U I L D I N G M N C O M M U N I T Y S O L A R C A PA C I T Y ( N O V 2 0 1 7 ) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2015 2016 2017
  47. 47. A D D S T O R A G E
  48. 48. Some electricity sharing allowed No electricity sharing C O M M U N I T Y R E N E WA B L E E N E R G Y Solar AND wind!
  49. 49. I N C L U S I V E E N E R G Y F I N A N C I N G The utility (like Xcel or Centerpoint) pays for the insulation, windows, or solar panels I N C L U S I V E F I N A N C I N G M A K I N G C L E A N E N E R G Y E A S I E R T H A N A C R E D I T C A R D S W I P E You, the customer, sign up for better insulation, windows, a rooftop solar panels, or a share of solar on a nearby building H O W I T W O R K S 1 2 Part of the savings reduces your energy bill 3 Part of the savings is used to pay for the improvements Tariff-based
  50. 50. G E N E R AT I O N T R A N S M I S S I O N D I S T R I B U T I O N 3¢ 3¢ 4¢+ + P U B L I C U T I L I T Y R E G U L AT O RY P O L I C I E S A C T D E F E N D T H E R I G H T T O S E L L … Utilities must buy electricity from “qualifying facilities,” including wind and solar, at their “avoided cost” F E D E R A L L AW
  51. 51. G E N E R AT I O N T R A N S M I S S I O N D I S T R I B U T I O N 3¢ 3¢ 4¢+ + Account for point of delivery … AT A FA I R P R I C E P U B L I C U T I L I T Y R E G U L AT O RY P O L I C I E S A C T
  52. 52. F R O M E N E R G Y M O N O P O LY T O E N E R G Y D E M O C R A C Y Before After
  53. 53. T H A N K Y O U ! @johnffarrell www.ilsr.org C H A N G I N G T H E R U L E S P R O V I D I N G T O O L S 1 0 0 % R E N E WA B L E L O C A L E C O N O M Y H U M A N S C A L E L O C A L O W N E R S H I P D E M O C R AT I C A U T H O R I T Y I L L U S T R AT I N G T H E V I S I O N

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