Japan's Energy - myths versus reality (keynote at The Economist Corporate Network briefing)

(c) www.eurotechnology.com fasol@eurotechnology.com April 24, 2014
Gerhard Fasol PhD

Economist Corporate Network

Tokyo April 24, 2014
JAPAN’S ENERGY -

MYTHSVERSUS REALITY

JAPAN’S ENERGY - MYTHSVS REALITY
•Nature governs energy - nature cannot be fooled

!
•Where are we and why?

!
•Where do we go forward?

NATURE GOVERNS ENERGY
•“For a successful technology, reality must take
precedence over public relations, for nature cannot
be fooled” (Richard Feynman in the Rogers Space
Shuttle Challenger report)

•I am physicist and “energy” in my DNA…

•see: http://www.boltzmann.com/events/symposia/

WHERE ARE WE AND WHY?
Year action
February 15, 1883 Tokyo Dentou KK receives Government license, starts business in July 5,1886
1893
Tokyo Dentou KK introduces 50Hz equipment from AEG (of Germany)

Osaka Dentou KK introduces 60Hz equipment from GE (of USA)
1896 33 electricity utility companies
700 electricity utility companies
1938-1939 Japan’s electricity industry nationalized
March 1942
Nihon Hassouden KK (Nippatsu) created (generation + transmission)

9 distribution companies (Tokyo Dentou dissolved March 1942)
May 1, 1951
US occupation government orders dissolution of Nihon Hassouden KK
(Nippatsu), 9 regional electricity monopolies created,1972 + Okinawa Power Co
March 1, 1961
construction of ﬁrst Japanese nuclear power plant (Tokai Nuclear Power Plant, UK
Magnox type) starts (power generation starts 1966, decommissioned in 1998)
source: http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_energy/

CAUSE OF FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR
ACCIDENT
•Parliamentary Commission chaired by Kiyoshi Kurokawa:
Regulatory capture

•Kurokawa: “Group think can kill”, see:

•http://www.eurotechnology.com/2014/03/09/kiyoshi-
kurokawa-groupthink-can-kill/

•not a Japanese phenomenon

•theory of regulatory capture:

•George Stigler (Nobel Prize 1982) “EconomicTheory of
Regulation”

DANIEL KAHNEMAN
2002 Nobel Prize in Economic Science

!
Psychology of judgment and decision making

!
“why clever people make stupid decisions”...

!
Eminent US philosopher about Daniel Kahneman:
“I am not interested in the psychology of stupidity”

PRIMARY ENERGY SELF-SUFFICIENCY RATIOS

TRADITIONALVIEW - NEGLECTS RENEWABLE POTENTIAL
Italy Japan S Korea Germany France US India UK China Canada Russia
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Energyselfsufficiencyratio
Energy self sufficiency
ratio IEA, OECD, 2006 2007
15
15
18
4
19
2
41
30
51
8
71
62
76
75
83
76
92
91
153
144
183
incl. nuclear
177
excl. nuclear
c2012EurotechnologyJapanKK
www.eurotechnology.com
Japan’s energy “self sufﬁciency” is 4% with nuclear power switched off, and 18% with nuclear
power switched on. However, this reasoning does not include the potential of not yet
developed renewable energy sources, which are 100% domestic, e.g. wind energy, geo-thermal.
If wind energy, solar, geo-thermal, micro-water power and other renewable sources are fully
developed, Japan could come close to or even exceed self-sufﬁciency in energy in the future.

Source: http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_energy/

GENERATED ELECTRIC POWER
Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
electricitygenerated
permonthTeraWatthmonth
Japan's electricity generation per
month TeraWatt h Source: METI
caloric
nuclear red
water power blue
solar, wind, geothermal, biomass
March
11
disaster
source - includes about 200 pages of data and analysis of Japan’s energy sector:

http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_energy/

WHY DOES JAPAN PAY SO MUCH FOR LNG?
2008 2010 2012 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
NaturalGaspricesUS$MillionBTU 3.4 cent kWh
6.8 cent kWh
March 11, 2011
Japan LNG
USA LNG
Export
USA pipeline
Import
EU
Natural Gas prices US$ Million BTU
Japan pays about 5% of GDP for importing primary energy (detailed statistics: http://
www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_energy/).

Japan pays far more for LNG per unit than US costs or EU - why?

• not one single reason:

• liquefaction + transport

• political reasons

• timing

• negotiation know-how

• competition reasons

• project management

• etc

THE CONTRIBUTION OF RENEWABLE ENERGYTO JAPAN’S ELECTRICITY
GENERATION HAS FALLEN FROM 25%TO AROUND 10% FROM 1970 UNTILTODAY
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
10
20
30
percent
Japan's generated
renewable electric power as a
ratio of total generated power
Water
Pump Storage
Renewable except water power
source and more details: http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_renewable/

INSTALLED WIND POWER GENERATION CAPACITY
China US Germany Spain India UK Italy France Canada Portugal Japan ROW
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
windpowerGigaWatt
wind power end 2012
75.6
60
31.3
22.8
18.4
8.4 8.1 7.2 6.2 4.5 2.6
39.9

THE WAY FORWARD
•global grid trends

•democratization

•liberalization

•localization

•renewable energy

•the new Government Energy Strategy

GLOBALTREND:

REDESIGN ELECTRICITY GRIDS
特別高圧
(1) 500kV, 270kV, 140kV
(2) 60kV
(3) 20kV
高圧 6kV
低圧 200V, 100V
Power stations:
(1) generate power
(2) stabilize grid frequency
特別高圧
(1) 500kV, 270kV, 140kV
(2) 60kV
(3) 20kV
高圧 6kV
低圧 200V, 100V
Power stations:
(1) generate power
(2) stabilize grid frequency
Traditional top-down energy grid.TEPCO’s
supply grid forTokyo and the region around
Tokyo has been built over many years
according to this top-down principle.
Electricity ﬂows one-way from large central
power stations to customers.
In most countries traditional top-down grids are evolving to a new
paradigm.As small local power plants, renewable energy sources such as
wind and solar, geo-thermal or micro-water plants, are added on the
distribution end of the grid, electricity ﬂows both ways: top-> down, and
bottom -> up. New technology need to be introduced to stabilize and
synchronize supply/demand, and stabilize the frequency in such a
modern grid.

TAKE AWAYS:
•Nature governs energy

•Nature cannot be fooled (Feynman)

•Global trend: reengineering the grid

•localize, democratize, liberalize

•Renewable energy: wind can in theory
cover all of Japan’s energy needs

•Energy strategy plan has no KPI’s

CONTACT AND MORE INFORMATION
Gerhard Fasol

CEO, Eurotechnology Japan KK

Board Member, GMO Cloud KK

!
http://www.eurotechnology.com/

fasol@eurotechnology.com

!
More information:

http://www.eurotechnology.com/japan-energy/

!
Detailed statistical data and analysis:

http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_energy/

http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_renewable/

Japan's Energy - myths versus reality (keynote at The Economist Corporate Network briefing)

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Japan's Energy - myths versus reality (keynote at The Economist Corporate Network briefing)