The document summarizes preliminary results from a qualitative analysis of the early warning decision-making process at CEMADEN, a disaster monitoring agency in Brazil. Interviews and observations were conducted with staff in CEMADEN's monitoring room. Preliminary findings suggest the process involves teams of specialists collecting and analyzing data to determine warnings. A proposed early warning process model was developed using business process modeling notation. Future work includes providing CEMADEN with guidelines and a reference model to improve their early warning processes.

1. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
1
Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis
within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an
emphasis on the issuing of early warning
Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM
PhD Student, LABES, ICMC, University of São Paulo
Member of AGORA Research Group
horita@icmc.usp.br
http://www.agora.icmc.usp.br | http://www.flaviohorita.com
Pró-alertas

2. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
2
Flávio Horita
 PhD candidate in Computer Science, ICMC/USP
 Research-stay, ERCIS, Münster University
 MSc in Computer Science, UEL in 2013
 Specialist in Software Engineering, UNIFIL in 2012
 BSc in Information Systems, UNILINS in 2009
 Research interests:
 Decision Support Systems
 Crowdsourcing and Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI)
 Disaster and Emergency Management

3. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
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Static Sensors
Mobile Sensors
Citizens as sensors
Dynamic
Sensor
Management
Crowd
Sensing
Social Media
Information
Fusion and
Management
Decision
Support
Citizen
Engagement
Information
Quality
Assurance
Citizens
AGORA
Acquisition Integration Application
Social
Information
Sharing
Collaborative
Mapping
Semantic
Enrichment &
Fusion
Collaborative
Maps
VGI
Environmental
Modelling
Scientists
Decision Makers

4. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
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Agenda
• Introduction
• Recap & Research Work
• Preliminary Results
• Future Directions

5. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
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Agenda
• Introduction
• Recap & Research Work
• Preliminary Results
• Future Directions

6. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
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Source: Elwood (2008); Goodchild & Glennon (2010); Niko et al., (2011); DeLongueville et al. (2012); Horita et al.
(2013); Haworth & Bruce (2015)
Hard sensors Exploratory teams
Social Media Collaborative Platforms
Disaster Management & Data sources & Volunteered geographic
information
A lot of data about
disasters
Unstructured
data
Raw data w/
different formats
Introduction

7. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
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Introduction
Disaster Management & Data sources & Volunteered geographic
information
All these data are not integrated into the decision-making
Source: Crowley and Chan (2011); Tapia and Moore (2014); Vieweg et al. (2014); Horita et al. (2015)

8. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
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Introduction
Business Process Model and Notation Lifecycle

9. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
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Introduction
BPMN & DMN

10. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
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Introduction
DMN

11. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
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Introduction
Integrated Model -oDMN
It connects the
available data to
business processes

12. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
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Agenda
• Introduction
• Recap & Research Work
• Preliminary Results
• Future Directions

13. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
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Recap
Objective of First Visit to CEMADEN
Model the early
warning decision-
making process
Monitoring Room

14. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
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Interviews Participant
Observations
Recap
Research Methods

15. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
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• How is the early warning process operated by an
emergency agency?
• Statement: An early warning process can be modeled by means of
the Business Process Modeling and Notation (BPMN)
Research Methods
Define
research
question
Elaboration
of the
protocol
Collection
of data
Analyze the
collected
data
Research Work

16. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
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Research Methods
Define
research
question
Elaboration
of the
protocol
Collection
of data
Analyze the
collected
data
• Qualitative analysis in the Brazilian context
• Background:
• Case study approach (Yin, 2009; Runeson & Höst, 2009)
• Coding techniques (Saldaña, 2015)
• Analytical features
• Concepts from Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN)
Research Work

17. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
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Research Methods
Define
research
question
Elaboration
of the
protocol
Collection
of data
Analyze the
collected
data
• Participatory observations in the monitoring room on January 20th,
2016
• Semi-structured interviews with members of the monitoring room on
January 20th-22nd, 2016 and February 1st-5th, 2016.
• 10 members (2 geologists, 2 hydrologists, 2 meteorologists, 4
disaster management specialists)
• Four different teams
Research Work

18. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
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• Transcription verbatim of the interviews (Saldaña, 2015)
• 8 interviews (2 geologists, 2 hydrologists, 2 meteorologists, 2
disaster management specialists)
• Coding each transcription
• Use the analytical features
• Raise the conceptual elements
Research Methods
Define
research
question
Elaboration
of the
protocol
Collection
of data
Analyze the
collected
data
Research Work

19. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
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Agenda
• Introduction
• Recap & Research Work
• Preliminary Results
• Future Directions

20. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
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Preliminary Results
Participants
Role Experience CEMADEN Temp. Degree Area
Metereologist > 3 years > 3 year YES PhD Meteorology
Metereologist > 3 years > 3 year YES MSc Meteorology
Geologist > 1 year, <= 3 years <= 2 year NO MSc Geography
Geologist > 3 years > 3 year YES MSc Geography
Hydrologist > 1 year, <= 3 years <= 2 year NO MSc Environmetal Engineering
Disaster
Management
> 3 years > 3 year YES PhD Meteorology
Hydrologist > 1 year, <= 3 years <= 2 year NO PhD Civil Engineering
Disaster
Management
> 1 year, <= 3 years > 3 year YES PhD Remote Sensing

21. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
21
Preliminary results
Early warning decision-making process

22. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
22
Preliminary results
Early warning decision-making process

23. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
23
Preliminary results
Early warning decision-making process

24. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
24
Preliminary results
Early warning decision-making process
Geologists
Meteorologists
Team
Hydrologits
Disaster management
specialists

25. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
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Preliminary results
Early warning decision-making process

26. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
26
Agenda
• Introduction
• Recap & Research Work
• Preliminary Results
• Future Directions

27. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
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Future Directions
Contributions to CEMADEN
Guidelines
Reference Task Model
Undestanding the
CEMADEN processes
Process Improvement
75%

28. Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an emphasis on
the issuing of early warning | Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com
28
Preliminary results from a qualitative analysis
within the monitoring room at the CEMADEN: an
emphasis on the issuing of early warning
Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM
PhD Student, LABES, ICMC, University of São Paulo
Member of AGORA Research Group
horita@icmc.usp.br
http://www.agora.icmc.usp.br | http://www.flaviohorita.com
Pró-alertas