3. OVERVIEW
Demand for Grain Is Global and Has Been Growing Over the
Past Decade
FOCUS: DEMAND
WORLD SUPPLY AND USE FOR TOTAL GRAINS
Ending stocks represent
carryover year to year of
600 30%
grain;
METRIC TONS (IN MILLIONS)
500 25%
Carryover is declining
reflecting expanded
400 20%
global demand reflecting
greater global demand
300 15%
from sources like biofuels
and export markets
200 10%
Carryover as a percent of
total use is also declining
100 5%
Reduction in carryover
0 0% comes at a time when
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07
grain production is at an
all-time high, further
ENDING STOCKS AS A
ENDING STOCKS
reinforcing the strong
PERCENT OF TOTAL USE
demand pull in the market
Source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
3
4. OVERVIEW
Changing Demand Dynamics Are Leading to Fundamental
Shifts Favoring Corn and Soybean Production
FOCUS: PRODUCTION
U.S. PLANTED ACRES
Corn, wheat and
TOTAL PLANTED ACRES
soybeans account 90 OF CORN, WHEAT, SOY
220
for about 87 percent
of plantable acreage 210
85
ACRES (IN MILLIONS)
200
Planting influenced
ACRES (IN MILLIONS)
CORN
80
TOTAL PLANTED
by expected net 190
returns among 180
75
competing crops;
170
SOY
Net returns are 70
160
affected by: market
prices, yields and WHEAT 150
65
production costs 140
60
Wheat plantings 130
have reduced by 120
55
approximately 10 110
million acres since
50 100
the late 1990s 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
WHEAT SOY CORN TOTAL PLANTED ACRES
Source: USDA
4
5. OVERVIEW
Because of Focus on Per-Acre Productivity, Seed Is Farmers’
Most Important Decision
U.S. CORN PRODUCTION COSTS PER ACRE
1996 OPERATING COSTS1
2004
17% SEED 22%
(INCLUDING
TRAITS)
17% CHEMICALS 15%
30% FERTILIZER 29%
SEED (INCLUDING TRAITS)
FERTILIZERS & SOIL AVERAGE YIELD
AVERAGE YIELD 169 bu/ac
130 bu/ac
CONDITIONERS
PRICE PER
PRICE PER
FUEL & POWER COSTS $2.13
$2.82 BUSHEL
BUSHEL
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
CHEMICALS ENTERPRISE
ENTERPRISE 236 acres
189 acres
SIZE
SIZE
CUSTOM OPERATIONS &
TECHNICAL SERVICE
OTHER
1. Excludes “Overhead” costs, including hired labor and opportunity cost of land, etc.
Source: USDA Economic Research Service: http://www.ers.usda.gov/data/CostsandReturns/testpick.htm
5
6. COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY
Farmers ‘Buy Yield,’ Creating Opportunity for Seeds and
Traits Growth
FARMERS’ DECISION EQUATION
MONSANTO’S POSITION: CORN
SEED National brands
(GENETIC GAIN)
The starting point of all agriculture; Regional brands
farmers need to maximize ‘genetics’
in seed for yield
+
Licensing
TECHNOLOGY Weed control
‘Below ground’
‘Above ground’
system
protection
protection
(% OF GENETIC GAIN
PRESERVED)
Technology is used to protect and
maximize the yield potential of the
=
seed
The elegance of a seed and trait approach
MAXIMUM YIELD is that the seed is the package and traits
POTENTIAL can be ‘stacked’ for maximum effect
The basic equation represents the In 2005, Monsanto introduced the first
maximum yield potential multiplied triple-stack of biotech traits
by the percent of that yield preserved
by technology
6
7. COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY
Delivering ‘Yield’ Favors Companies That Can Provide Both
Breeding and Biotechnology Improvements in Concert
FOCUS: YIELD
WHAT MATTERS TO FARMERS IS THE YIELD AT
HARVEST, WHICH IS A FUNCTION OF HOW MUCH
POTENTIAL A SEED HAS AND HOW IT’S
GENETIC POTENTIAL (FUTURE)
PROTECTED:
GENETIC POTENTIAL
NET REALIZED YIELD WITH
PERCENT OF GENETIC GAIN FUTURE PROTECTION
X PRESERVED OPPORTUNITIES
PROTECTION AND
ENHANCEMENT
IMPROVED NITROGEN
ADVANCES
BREEDING
UTILIZATION
NET REALIZED YIELD
DROUGHT
TOLERANCE
SECOND-GENERATION
INSECT CONTROL
GENETIC POTENTIAL (CURRENT)
INSECT PRESSURE NET REALIZED YIELD
WITH CURRENT
WEED PRESSURE
PROTECTION
NATURAL YIELD
NUTRIENT DEFICIENCY
SUPPRESSION
BELOW-GROUND
CURRENT YIELD
WATER DEFICIENCY INSECT CONTROL
PROTECTION
GENETIC POTENTIAL
ABOVE-GROUND PRESERVED
INSECT CONTROL THROUGH BIOTECH
TRAITS AND
PRODUCTION
WEED-CONTROL
ADVANCES
TRAITS
SEED
NET REALIZED YIELD
MANUFACTURING
WITH NO PROTECTION
7
8. COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY
Power of Breeding Library and Capabilities Lies in Unique
Ability to Create Differentiated Products for Three Channels
BREEDING TECHNOLOGY AND
COMMERCIAL CHANNELS
GERMPLASM LIBRARY
APPLICATION
Licensed to regional brands
>250 independent seed companies
BREEDING
GLOBAL
PROGRAM CREATES
GERMPLASM
DIFFERENTIATED
LIBRARY Regional brands
GERMPLASM
16 brands
National brands
Key position with
ag chem retailers
• Germplasm library • >100 breeding research • 50% of the breeding population comes from
centers worldwide inter-company, inter-country crosses
assembled from 36
programs in 12 • >2,000 genetic markers • Molecular breeding improves genetic
countries used by breeders for corn potential by 2x versus conventional
today breeding
8
9. COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY
Demonstrated Product Leadership Translates to Recognized
Brand Leadership
MARKET RESEARCH: TOP 3 CITED SEED PURCHASE DRIVERS
Based on a sample of 1,909 respondents representing farmers who use seed from
the major players in the U.S. corn seed market1
RANKED ORDER OF FARMER RESPONSES
OTHER NATIONAL Top 3 largest
CORN SEED purchase drivers for
PROVIDER(S) farmers buying
DEKALB corn seed
Good Yield 35% Good Yield 41%
1
all relate to
Good Stand/ performance
Top 2 of 3 Lower Cost 27% 16%
2
Strong Stalks benefits – reflecting
purchase drivers
68% of the reasons
related to price Discount/ Test Plot cited
10% 11%
3
Rebates Results
MARKET SHARE PERFORMANCE The positive view by
farmers of
PROJECTED MARKET SHARE
DEKALB’s brand
GAIN 2005 to 2006F
performance is
reflected in its
+2.5%
Asgrow and DEKALB brands
market share
growth year to year
1.Monsanto research; Survey question: “What one factor most influenced your decision to plant more acres of [brand] corn seed in 2006 than you did
this past season in 2005?
9
10. COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY
Seed Purchase Decisions Reflect Farmers’ Effort to Balance
On-Farm Risk
MARKET RESEARCH: SEED PURCHASE DECISIONS ON-FARM1
PURCHASE PATTERNS
• Plant 3-4 brands and 5-8 different
hybrids
• 60% select germplasm first, then make
PURCHASE a decision on biotech traits
STRATEGY: • Decision-making actions: look at on-
farm comparisons (68%), speak with
another farmer (58%), speak with seed
company (58%)
FOCUS: SEED PURCHASES
• Purchase from average of 2-3 seed
Farmers manage risk through PURCHASE dealers
LOGISTICS:
diversification on farm • 61% of purchases are made in
November and December
Number of brands is the practical
PLANTING MIX
tool used to create genetic diversity
on-farm • 38% planted to latest “top-yielding”
YIELD hybrids
STRATEGY: • 54% planted to consistent performing
hybrids
• 28% are first-year hybrids
AGE-MIX
• 30% are second-year hybrids
STRATEGY:
• 42% are third-year or older hybrids
1. Monsanto market research
10
11. COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY
Triple-Channel Approach Allows Monsanto to Compete for
Total Farm While Providing Genetic Diversity
HOLDEN’S SEED PARTNER
FIELD x HYBRID SELECTION
DEKALB
MODEL FARM OPERATION LH331RR+LH324B
HYBRID: HYBRID:
DKC63-74
TCRW
TRAITS1: RR/YGPL TRAITS1: RR/YGPL
• Very good disease package
• Excellent overall plant
and late season health
health
• Excellent drought tolerance
• Very good stalks
DEKALB
CROW’S HYBRIDS
HYBRID: DKC61-66
HYBRID: 4940T
TRAITS :
1
RR/YGPL
TRAITS1: RR/YGPL
• Earlier maturity hybrid to
• Excellent stalks
spread reproductive
• Excellent drought tolerance window
• Very good stalks and roots
DEKALB CROW’S HYBRIDS
MODEL FARM CHARACTERISTICS
HYBRID: DKC64-23 HYBRID: 4616T
Central
LOCATION:
TRAITS :
1
RR/YGRW Illinois TRAITS1: RR/YGPL
• Very good stalks and roots BRANDS OF SEED CORN PLANTED: • Earlier maturity hybrid to
3
for flexible harvest spread reproductive
scheduling INDIVIDUAL HYBRIDS PLANTED: window
6
• Excellent drought tolerance • Very good disease package
1. Trait abbreviations: RR= Roundup Ready; YGCB = YieldGard Corn Borer; YGRW = YieldGard Rootworm; YGPL = YieldGard Plus
11
12. COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY
Performance Acceleration Across U.S. Commercial
Channels Is Reflected in Market Share Growth
U.S. CORN MARKET SHARE
60%
50%
40%
Continued gains
30% of 1-2 points for
National brands
20%
10%
0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006F 2007F
TRAIT PENETRATION STACKED PENETRATION
2005 2006F 2005 2006F
LICENSED BRANDS
44% 60% 27% 43%
REGIONAL BRANDS
67% 75% 36% 53%
NATIONAL BRANDS
87% 90% 60% 69%
12
13. COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY
With the Corn Trait Technology in Hand Today, There’s
Opportunity to Double Penetration By End of Decade
U.S. CORN TRAIT OPPORTUNITY
FOCUS: OPPORTUNITY
TOTAL MARKET OPPORTUNITY IN 2010
U.S. TRAIT ACRE
OPPORTUNITY: CURRENT
RELATIVE RETAIL VALUE PER ACRE
YIELDGARD COMMERCIAL CORN
ROOTWORM
TRAITS
2006F:
YIELDGARD
Under 50%
CORN BORER
penetrated to
date
ROUNDUP
READY CORN
60
40 50
30
10 20
U.S. TRAIT-ACRE OPPORTUNITY
(ACRES IN MILLIONS)
OPPORTUNITY
DOUBLE SINGLE
TRIPLE
20-25M ACRES
STACKED
~10M ACRES
25-30M ACRES
Above triple stack, Acres exclusively using
Because YieldGard Rootworm
remaining YieldGard Roundup Ready, which would
has the lowest market
Corn Borer forms include “refuge” acres
opportunity of the 3 traits, its
double-stack required for other acres using
market potential is the proxy for
opportunity insect-protected traits
total potential for triple stack
13
14. COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY
Price-for-Penetration Strategy Gives More Farmers Access to
New Technology in Early Years of Introduction
YIELDGARD CORN BORER
U.S. PENETRATION OF CORN TRAITS
INTRODUCED 1997
PERCENT OF TOTAL MARKET OPPORTUNITY1 PENETRATED BY
YEARS FOLLOWING COMMERCIAL INTRODUCTION PERCENT OF TOTAL
~60%
OPPORTUNITY (2006F)
PERCENT OF TRAIT-ACRE OPPORTUNITY1
70% Year 3:
FIRST SIGNIFICANT Decrease to
PRICING MOVE:
60% drive
penetration
50% ROUNDUP READY CORN
INTRODUCED 1998
40%
PERCENT OF TOTAL
~55%
OPPORTUNITY (2006F)
30%
FIRST SIGNIFICANT Year 6:
PRICING MOVE:
20% Increase
YIELDGARD ROOTWORM
10%
INTRODUCED 2003
0%
PERCENT OF TOTAL
~35%
Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year OPPORTUNITY (2006F)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
FIRST SIGNIFICANT None to
PRICING MOVE: date
FOCUS: TRAIT VALUE
Pricing philosophy gives farmers more
Price for penetration, based on replacement
access on more acres to new technology
value of competitive alternative
Growth comes from volume expansion
For each $3 of value created, Monsanto seeks
more than price
$1 and remainder accrues to farmer
1. Percent of total market opportunity reflects the ratio of number of actual acres planted to total trait-acre opportunity identified for each particular trait
14
16. PIPELINE OPPORTUNITY
From Early Stages, “HIT” Projects Are Designed and
Resourced to Bolster Commercial Readiness
High-Impact Technology: A designated sub-set of the R&D pipeline placed on a
graduated track to streamline development work and improve commercial readiness,
reflecting enhanced confidence and certainty in our ability to launch a commercially
P R O JE CT
meaningful product; Designed to pull forward the Net Present Value (NPV) through
larger-acre launches in elite germplasm with a greater financial benefit.
Roundup RReady2Yield soybeans
P R O JE CT
PHASE III
• Parallel work in breeding and
biotechnology
• Simultaneous regulatory work,
submissions moving forward along
with project testing for key launch
countries
Drought-tolerant corn
P R O JE CT
PHASE II
• Parallel work in breeding and
biotechnology
• Early-stage R&D and commercial
integration
Vistive III soybeans
P R O JE CT
PHASE II
• Progress will allow Vistive III to “leap-
frog,” shortening the gap in
commercialization between Vistive I and
Vistive III
16
17. PIPELINE OPPORTUNITY
Reflecting HIT Status, Roundup RReady2Yield Soybeans Is
Targeted for Most Significant Commercial Trait Launch
KEY MARKET ACRES U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA
Roundup RReady2Yield AVAILABLE MARKET 70M 50M 35M
Soybeans
CREATING VALUE PERCENT PENETRATED 0% 0% 0%
LAUNCH ACRES OF U.S. TRAITS
PRODUCT CONCEPT 3
HISTORICAL COMMERCIALIZED TRAITS (1996-2006)
2.5
HIT Project
ACRES (IN MILLIONS)
Roundup RReady2Yield soybeans
AVERAGE
2
DISCOVERY PHASE I PHASE II PHASE III PHASE IV HISTORIC TRAIT
LAUNCH:
1.5 1.2M ACRES
1
• Roundup RReady2Yield is the second-generation of
Monsanto’s popular herbicide-tolerant platform in 0.5
soybeans
0
VALUE CONSIDERATIONS SOYBEAN
COTTON
CORN TRAITS TRAITS
TRAITS
• Value is additive, with target of up to 5 bushel-per-
Target acreage for Roundup RReady2Yield
acre yield improvement over comparable Roundup
Ready soybeans commercial launch is expected to be a multiple
above historical acreages in launch years
• Value created through yield gains will be shared with
farmer and value chain as has been Monsanto’s
ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD: COMMERCIAL MILESTONES
practice
STARTING POINT
• Market opportunity for Roundup RReady2Yield U.S. REGULATORY
APPROVAL
soybeans recognizes competition from other traits
SEASON 1 LAUNCH YEAR
RETAIL
Medium (>$10/acre to <$30/acre) GLOBAL REGULATORY CLEARANCES
VALUE/ACRE:
TOTAL ACRE PRE-COMMERCIAL USER- COMMERCIAL LAUNCH
High (>20M acres)
OPPORTUNITY: RELIABILITY TRIALS
17
18. PIPELINE OPPORTUNITY
Multi-Generational Drought-Tolerant Corn Creates
Value Across Multiple Market Segments
KEY MARKET ACRES U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA
AVAILABLE MARKET 80M 30M 6M
Drought-tolerant corn
CREATING VALUE PERCENT PENETRATED 0% 0% 0%
SEGMENTED VALUE OPPORTUNITY
PRODUCT CONCEPT
ACROSS MARKETS: U.S. EXAMPLE
HIT Project Drought-tolerant corn
DISCOVERY PHASE I PHASE II PHASE III PHASE IV High annual
precipitation
• Drought-tolerance is a family of products, aimed at
providing consistent yield and buffering against the
effects of water limitations
VALUE CONSIDERATIONS
Low annual
• Farmers value water-use in “acre-inches of water” needed precipitation
to support yield potential – farmers need 18-20 inches of Source: Spatial Climate Analysis Service, Oregon State University
moisture from natural or irrigated sources during growing
WESTERN
IRRIGATED STABILITY
season DRYLAND
• Value of the trait is in better yields under moisture-
8-12M acres 10-12M acres 50-60M acres
stressed conditions; Varies by region (see table at right)
• The value will be specific to the variable costs of water use 14-18” typical 14-18” typical 17-19” typical
precipitation in precipitation in precipitation in
by farmers, not fixed costs of irrigation
growing season growing season growing season
• First value models are based in U.S.; International markets
Irrigated Non-irrigated Non-irrigated
follow similar value proposition
RETAIL Value is in Value is in
Value is in
Medium (>$10/acre to <$30/acre)
VALUE/ACRE: improved yields improved yields
replacing
annually, by when moisture is
irrigation, reducing
TOTAL ACRE improving water- less than optimal
the variable costs
High (>20M acres)
OPPORTUNITY: use efficiency
of irrigation
18
19. SUMMARY
Monsanto Has Strong Growth Opportunity in Current
Commercial Portfolio and Emerging from R&D Pipeline
PERIOD : PERIOD : PERIOD :
SEED & TRAITS ESTABLISHED CORN IS ON THE LEADING EDGE THE GAME CHANGES
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Commercial viability of seeds With seeds-and-traits strategy
Seed and trait growth comes from: penetration,
and traits established; established, gross profit
stacking and multi-generation traits, and
Supporting infrastructure in opportunity expands in the United
breeding enhancement; Corn defines the future
place
States and internationally with
direction
penetration, stacking, second-
generation – even as competition
becomes more significant
PERIOD PERIOD
KEY MILESTONES KEY DRIVERS
Advances in breeding technology combine Continued growth in the U.S. corn market, with additive
1
with biotech for market advantage in corn; gross-margin opportunity for the ASI businesses
U.S. share gains of 1-2 points
Molecular breeding advances begin to benefit
2
Roundup Ready Corn 2 reaches 50M acres
international corn market share position
Stacks become the trait package of choice
3 New opportunities for global trait expansion
in corn
4 Cotton platform creates new opportunities for growth
Roundup Ready Flex cotton launches;
Transition to second-generation traits
Seminis poised to capture additional gross margin
starts in United States and Australia
5
through commercial initiatives and technology infusion
Ex-U.S. seeds and traits market established
with cornerstones in India and Brazil Next-generation pipeline poised for enhanced
6
commercial delivery
19