2. TABLETS DIGITAL MICROSOFT
LG
APPLE MAGAZINES SINGLE SIGN-ON
MOBILE GAMING EXPERIENCE WARS
FACEBOOK NOKIA SERVICE PLATFORMS
LIFESTREAMS
LIQUID EXPERIENCES INTERNET APPLIANCES
CLOUD SERVICES ASUS SUPERPHONES
MONETISATION COMPANIONS
SOCIAL EVERYTHING
CAR AS MOBILE OS
iOS
LIKE
NFC
ANDROID GAME MECHANICS
MOBILES
SHARING
RICH OS
SMART OBJECTS
PAYMEN MULTITOUCH 3D
HP SAMSUNG BITPIPES CHECK-INS
TS
ZYNGA HTC WINDOWS MOBILE 7
WANT
CONTEXT
FREEMIUM GESTURES
WEBOS
FROM NOISE WRIST OS MEEGO
MOTOROLA OS WAR Mobile Wallet
3. ‘SUPERPHONES’ GO 4D DIGITAL MAGAZINES:
- AND BEYOND STILL SEARCHING FOR A SOUL
LIFEBOATS FOR THE
EXPERIENCE WARS:
‘APP FLOOD’
THE LIVING ROOM IS THE
BATTLEGROUND
GOING WITH THE FLOW:
‘LIQUID EXPERIENCES’ PIMP YOUR LIFE,
THE CLOUD
GAMING STYLE
DISCOVERING BECOMES A KITE
‘LIFESTREAMS’
MOBILES GAIN MORE
CURRENCY
SMART OBJECTS CONNECT
WITH THE MAINSTREAM TOUCH TO PAY, NOW WITH
YOUR PHONE
TO TRENDS
4. LIFEBOATS
FOR THE
‘APP FLOOD’
Consumers are drowning in a sea
of apps. Fjord believes
companies that explore
innovative navigation patterns to
help consumers cope with the
„App Flood‟ will reap big rewards
in 2011.
5. LIFEBOATS FOR
THE ‘APP FLOOD’
After the gold rush, the app market is maturing.
From within the industry, we‟re seeing the
number of platforms stabilise around key
operating systems, and it‟s inevitable that the
apps model will spread to PCs and web
platforms.
And from the user‟s point of view, now that the
market is flooded with apps of every possible
description, we‟ll see relevance, discovery and
substance become key to success. Users will App stores will embrace the Long Tail paradigm
demand curation vehicles to help them, such as through better search functions, more elaborate
app search engines, innovative app ranking collaborative filtering and social networks. We
boards and new types of recommendation should also see the launch of app stores hosted
engines. by aggregators such as Appolicious. Players like
GetJar could, with innovation, reap big awards.
The best apps will evolve into „Super Apps‟ with
richer interaction tailored to each platform, more Amazon may also move into the apps market,
clever ways to get users back to their apps. building on the Kindle‟s user base to evolve a
Some will even grow into application suites, social reading platform similar to Txtr and Scribd.
providing common services like single sign-on.
Facebook could evolve in this way, or even into Matching the right user to the right app is set to
an application framework. be a major opportunity to monetize.
6. LIFEBOATS FOR
THE ‘APP FLOOD’
Apps search and recommendation
company MIMVI will get traffic
Aggregators such as
Appolicious would benefit
from launching app stores
Social reading platforms will
emerge, Amazon could become a
major player making it the
Facebook of readers
Google Chrome web apps could Top grossing, most used, app of the week,
enable simple monetisation of the staff favourite, highest ranking are the new
web metrics of success. CPMs and valuations will
be derived from them
7. GOING WITH
THE FLOW:
‘LIQUID
EXPERIENCES’
Service design innovators are
finally creating services that can
be fluidly experienced on any
screen, anywhere. We call this
„Liquid Experience‟.
In 2011 a liquid experience will be
a core part of every significant
design brief.
8. GOING WITH THE
FLOW: ‘LIQUID
EXPERIENCES’
Creating liquid experiences for users means These are experiences set to break free from the
engineering the flow between types of screen user‟s conventional frame of reference,
and interface. challenging our existing understanding of
„context‟. Design for liquid experience requires a
2011 will see a breakthrough for services that can completely new approach to platforms. Liquid
be fluidly experienced on any screen anywhere, experiences are horizontal by nature, for service
finally living up to the promise of cross-platform owners they become key engagement drivers
integration. Ensuring a liquid design means and important control points.
optimising for each platform, and ensuring they
combine perfectly.
For example, watching a movie as a passenger in
a car, and then seamlessly continuing your
viewing once at home: this will rapidly become a
typical everyday expectation for users.
Hulu, Netflix and iPlayer are pioneers at „turning
liquid‟, utility experiences like Facebook are also
gathering momentum in this direction. Current
examples include single sign-on („Connect‟) and
„Like‟ buttons emerging everywhere.
9. GOING WITH THE
FLOW: ‘LIQUID
EXPERIENCES’
BBC - The original Liquid
Experience is evolving to a
screen near you
The Amazon Kindle – is becoming a
Liquid Experience with a whisper sync
client for any platform
Facebook's „Connect‟ and „Like‟ are Spotify is incredibly liquid and can be
spreading like water drops, many other expected to morph into all kinds of
features of Facebook could turn liquid forms in 2011, the Sonos integration is a
great example of things to come
10. DIGITAL
MAGAZINES
ARE STILL
SEARCHING
FOR A SOUL
Digital magazines are not only
searching for new business
models. They also face a more
fundamental problem: the
concept of a magazine needs to
be re-invented in the Tablet era.
11. DIGITAL
MAGAZINES ARE
STILL SEARCHING
FOR A SOUL
Spurred by the success of the iPad and the
forthcoming explosion of Tablets, magazines will
continue to develop digital concepts. But without
clear revenue streams, publishers‟ willingness to
rethink fundamental issues is crucial.
Digital magazines face multiple problems - not
Reading browsers such as Flipboard, Pulse or
least the fact they often are simply too unwieldy
Elements are huge inspirations and could
and over-designed. File sizes can present storage
become massive disruptors.
and transmission issues that users are currently
not prepared to put up with. And audience
Printed magazines will - for the Tablet adopters -
acquisition, retention and monetisation still
be exposed as even more clumsy, noisy,
present formidable challenges.
environmentally unfriendly and user-unfriendly
than ever.
The off-line „curated package‟ to on-line „social‟
boundary is particularly hard to manage.
Fjord expects new magazine formats, vocabulary
and monetisation models to emerge that will
„New Reading‟ will need to merge reading, disrupt established titles. An analogue brand
watching, commenting, sharing and editing into a does not carry the same value in a digital world
single activity – for this we lack a good verb. one click away.
12. DIGITAL
MAGAZINES:
STILL SEARCHING
FOR A SOUL Bookshelves, and
magazine stands will
emerge in 2011.
Whomever owns the
news stand will own
something valuable as
it also becomes your
library
Flipboard is the Netscape
browser for the Tablet era
Expect incumbents to experiment in
Project is a new title in a new the analogue to digital cross over and
media – expect more new fight for their magazine rack space
entrants. Content is still king
13. PIMP YOUR
LIFE, GAMING
STYLE
Why not turn aspects of
everyday life into a game? Games
are steadily transforming our
experiences, bringing the
attitudes and rewards of gaming
into services, and we foresee
rapid growth for service design
leaders in this area.
14. PIMP YOUR LIFE,
GAMING STYLE
2011 will see game mechanics being used as a
tool to engage users with social industries.
Games can make chores fun and necessities
novel. Companies who can influence social
movements will affect their numbers in 2011.
Game mechanics are influencing the real world.
Virtual currencies carry real value, offers come to
you when you want them.
The design thinking in Nike + and Foursquare will
spread to a range of services, such as loyalty It‟s possible we‟ll see the gaming approach being
cards, wellness and health services and most used to change the world in 2011. Look carefully
importantly to marketing. Game mechanics will at Foursquare and expect some very innovative
become a core component of new marketing. services to emerge.
15. PIMP YOUR LIFE,
GAMING STYLE
Never underestimate the
power of badges, just look
at scouts all over the world
Game mechanics are the
serotonin of services Foursquare challenges
people to explore their city
using gaming mechanics
Nike + gaming mechanics used
to drive sports activity through
an app
Heia! Heia! Is a service for keeping
track of any activity from picking
mushrooms to ironing shirts. Maybe
one could get awarded for emptying
the dishwasher
Reputely.com – a platform
which can implement gaming
mechanics to any website
16. SMART
OBJECTS
CONNECT
WITH THE
MAINSTREAM
2011 will see smart objects bring
digital services into our physical
environments. While many of
these will be nothing more than
common objects paired with a
sensor and a data connection, a
few more sophisticated examples
will use smart objects to visualise
and interact with the digital
services already embedded in our
lives.
17. SMART OBJECTS
CONNECT WITH
THE MAINSTREAM
It‟s finally time for smart objects to start making
their mark on our daily lives.
The momentum of „ubiquitous computing‟ is now
increasingly moving out of university research
departments and into the marketplace - to meet
real end-consumer and business needs during Eventually we‟ll see smart objects as physical
2011. upgrades that we can buy to upgrade the office,
home and car, similar to the way we buy apps to
As more and more everyday objects are extend functions of our phones today.
embedded with sensors, these connected or
„smart‟ devices are enabled to communicate Paired with digital services that we already use
automatically with each other. Unlike mobile today, smart objects have the power to
phones today, these smart object blend into our transform our everyday lives. But the lack of a
offices and living environments to serve common protocol may frustrate the most
dedicated functions, 24x7. ambitious plans in 2011.
18. SMART OBJECTS Välkky knows when pedestrians
are going to cross streets and
CONNECT WITH starts flashing to alert drivers
THE MAINSTREAM
Integrated systems for the
home offer a complete range
of home automation products
Smart meters send readings to your
energy supplier automatically and
can include energy monitoring
Streetline is a smart parking system
that gives drivers real-time
guidance to open parking spaces
Philips DirectLife calculates the Smart pill caps. A wireless signal
number of calories burned every alerts base station if dose is
day from any movement made, not missed, alerting a nurse
just walking
19. ‘SUPERPHONES’
GO 4D
- AND BEYOND
Forthcoming „Superphones‟ will
increasingly utilise 3D graphics
experiences and sophisticated uses
of space and time within their user
interfaces.
Natural UI solutions that appeared
first on gaming consoles, will migrate
to mobile devices in 2011.
20. ‘SUPERPHONES’
GO 4D
- AND BEYOND
A new generation of „Superphones‟ will emerge, We include a note of caution at this point,
featuring 3D graphics and progressing to include however: no common standard exists, which
contextual time and place-aware interfaces - means that this new batch of devices may be
turning them into „4D‟ experiences. harder and more confusing to use before they
get easier.
Many Superphones in 2011 will boast dedicated
graphics chips and new sensors enabling novel But with new Superphones leading the way, we‟ll
experiences that may approach the feel of see interfaces take us closer to the mobile device
artificial intelligence. These „4D‟ experiences will as your „magic wand.‟
rely on gestures, haptic feedback and artificial
intelligence to simplify mobile life.
These new devices will offer a bold challenge to
the WIMP (Windows, Icons, Modes, Pointers)
paradigm of information access. We will no longer
simply jump into a menu structure or app, but
explore the environment and our social
connections using the phone as a magic wand for
the digital space.
As the cycle for replacing mobile phones is very
fast, this could see a faster uptake than 3D TV at
home - and glasses are not required.
21. ‘SUPERPHONES’ GO 4D
- AND BEYOND
Hand gestures to manipulate
utility applications into a 3D
plane will become standard
3D will allow designers to extend
experiences with „above‟, „inside‟
and „behind‟ style interactions
Kanzi is a technology for rapid The experience will smash the glowing
user interface design and rectangle. The physical and the virtual
deployment starts blurring
Massive competition in next gen mobile
processors create a competitive focus
to the experience layer
22. DISCOVERING
‘LIFESTREAMS’
What if you could never miss a
moment, never forget a thing -
throughout your life? 2011 will see
the emergence of this powerful new
idea within consumer expectations,
and services that combine to make it
a reality.
23. DISCOVERING
‘LIFESTREAMS’
In 2011 we will see increasing numbers of people
uploading aspects of their life to the cloud. They‟ll
be able to combine this across multiple online
services, generating meaning from data already
online.
Existing services will aggregate and combine to
offer users new ways to index their digital lives.
The raw materials are already there: take a
user's Facebook status updates, twitter updates,
digital photos, blog posts, Foursquare checkins,
text messages, emails, transactions, YouTube Additionally, we‟ll find specialist LifeLogging
video uploads and credit card statements, and services will continue to launch and enjoy wider
you would have a very complete picture of their take up in 2011. These services will also influence
existence. the mainstream as users become increasingly
concerned about the power of social networks to
Our children will learn a lot more about us than reveal their personal histories.
we did through a few old photographs - but we‟ll
need to ask ourselves if that‟s a good thing. And Fjord believes specialised lifestream services will
there‟s currently no service or standard to grow in 2011 as banks, health institutions and
support this kind of reflective exercise on users‟ others start to provide the outputs that can be
online data. „mashed up‟ into lifestreams.
24. DISCOVERING
‘LIFESTREAMS’
Memolane captures photos,
music, tweets, posts, and more
for people to view and share in
one place
Mappiness provides streams
of social happiness. Pixelpipe
are the smart plumbers of the
social network
Evernote has become an
international powerhouse of
remembering converting 20% ViconRevuec is a wearable
of users into paying customers digital camera that takes
photos without intervention
25. TOUCH TO PAY
- NOW WITH
YOUR PHONE
2011 will see a change in the way we
pay for goods. Mobile phones will
start to become the new credit cards,
as near field technology changes the
way we make everyday transactions.
26. TOUCH TO PAY -
NOW WITH YOUR
PHONE
2011 will see a change in the way we pay for
goods, with contactless payment taking the lead.
NFC is the next GPS. Contactless payment is ripe
for innovation as embedding the technology
within the mobile handset will open new
opportunities, expect the unexpected.
Additionally, data connections to banks through
mobile phones offer the security assurance that
both consumers and merchants need. Paired with
location-based deal hunting apps, shopping and
transaction opportunities will abound on mobile.
Bargain hunters have the best deal at their finger
tips. But being able to spend easily, especially We predict that consumers will relish the chance
with the financial crisis still fresh in consumers' to make simple transactions using their handsets,
minds, means that forward-looking banks will also and then learn to embrace additional
offer expenditure tracking and financial planning functionality. It will mean the end of being ripped
tools to their customers. off.
27. TOUCH TO PAY -
NOW WITH YOUR
PHONE
Phoolah experimented with
the idea of embedding RFID
tags into mobile phone skins
FeliCa is a contactless RFID
smart card system from Sony
Garanti Bank's commercial
NFC service in Turkey has
encouraged more to enter
the market
MasterCard Mobile Payments
mean no looking for coins or a
card
Gemalto formed a partnership
with HiCo to provide mobile
phone coupons via NFC
28. THE TABLET
TRANSFORMS
WORK AS WE
KNOW IT
The huge success and sales of
Apple‟s iPad means that other device
manufacturers are rushing into the
market. Differentiation will be a
major challenge. We think it cannot
be done without solid service design.
We also think work will be
transformed by Tablets.
29. THE TABLET
TRANSFORMS
WORK AS WE
KNOW IT
We will see a massive flood of Tablet devices,
sparking a fever among users. The biggest fever
will be in innovative organisations wanting to
integrate Tablets into their workflows.
Both handset vendors as well as PC vendors will
aggressively enter this market, leading to major
challenges in the differentiation of their products.
Vendors will need to be wary of launching Tablets
without the support of an appropriate eco-
system.
A massive accessory market will grow around
A possible solution is to pair a device with a Tablets from luxury covers by Louis Vuitton to utility
service that is unique, and appropriate to the options like the Zagg Mate keyboard case.
hardware. A host of vertical tailored services will
emerge. But crucially, vendors need to be ready with their
support for any new Tablet, including apps and cloud
Tablets are not toys, they are the future of work. services.
30. THE TABLET TRANSFORMS
WORK AS WE KNOW IT
Android‟s Tablet OS is expected to power
most Tablets in 2011. It could be a big threat
for Apple long-term. Another threat is
Microsoft who are also expected to release a
Tablet, the Windows Mobile 7 experience will
scale well to Tablets.
Blackberry Playbook. They
say, “you‟ve never seen
Blackberry like this” Asus and Archos introduced
multi size Tablets to the
market for home and work
Input is what pundits complain about. We will see a surge of B2B applications
Casualness of interaction, battery life and and innovations launching
always on connectivity make it an
indispensible tool for the mobile workforce
32. MOBILES GAIN
MORE CURRENCY
Mobile wallets are set to emerge as viable options These innovations mean mobile will develop as a
in 2011, with banks entering the space and Pay Pal powerful platform for the reinvention of currency
ramping up its mobile efforts. during 2011.
In emerging markets, prepaid and SMS formats
are also likely to make an impression.
We will see new methods being introduced and
rolled out, possibly first on iTunes and then
adopted by other stores. We‟ll see subscriptions,
micropayments, coupons, and gifting models
taking off as service designers join up the missing
links in the monetisation of mobile. The concept
of „freemium‟ will enter consumer‟s vocabulary.
Taking it further, these models will spread to
web-based models, led by Apple, Facebook and
Zynga, as well as innovative start ups like
singleclickcheckout.
Credit card companies fight for relevance with
their legacy format. We could start to see whole
new currencies emerging like „Zyngas‟,
„Facebooks‟, or „Amazons‟.
33. MOBILES GAIN
MORE CURRENCY
Zynga‟s pre-paid virtual currency cards have Facebook Credits are a virtual currency
been spreading across US stores, we expect you can use to buy virtual goods in many
that „Zyngas‟, a universal currency will emerge games and applications
that could even be converted back dollars
Most free apps will migrate to
Freemium in 2011, making it the
dominant model of monetisation
Mobile payment apps help you
make small payments without
searching for your wallet
34. THE CLOUD
BECOMES A
KITE
Now that cloud services are firmly
established, 2011 should see new
„mashup‟ innovations that combine
content and services in new ways,
mixed with innovative mobile clients
optimised for all platforms. The cloud
becomes a kite operated by mobile
people.
35. THE CLOUD
BECOMES A KITE
Falling prices for memory space will encourage
the migration of more data into the cloud during
2011.
Cloud services are now already established for
consumers, and a growing perception of
scalability and stability should see them combine
and flourish in new ways.
Weak mobile data connections force the cloud
businesses to make mobile clients.
We‟ll also expect to see large corporations adopt
cloud infrastructure, leading to concerns about
„private clouds‟ versus „public clouds‟. Service
design will tackle new questions like privacy, Data within public clouds may attract mash up
storage, access, bandwidth questions as well as efforts. Lots of innovation is expected in data
ensuring that the right information is available on visualisation, discovery and access in the year to
the right device. come.
36. THE CLOUD
BECOMES A KITE
Companies that have
Google Chrome OS will change announced to introduce
how we think of a PC private cloud services
Pogoplug – your personal cloud
attracted investment this year
Evernote and Dropbox –
offer clients for most
platforms, essential for
mobility
37. EXPERIENCE WARS:
THE LIVING ROOM IS
THE BATTLEGROUND
As the living room fills with boxes, new controls,
new content, new screens and even larger flat
screens (some with 3D) the ultimate experience
battle begins.
38. EXPERIENCE
WARS:
THE LIVING
ROOM IS THE The fight for the remote becomes fierce, and as it
has 40 buttons, no-one wants or can use it.
BATTLEGROUND We‟ll also see exciting innovation around remote
2011 will be a fascinating year for developments in controls. Gestural and innovative input methods
screen experiences for the home. like Microsoft Kinect and SoftKinetic‟s iisu gain
traction. Touch based remotes will enter the
3D TV will continue to be pushed, but price market. Mobiles are increasingly used as personal
sensitivity, the slow replacement cycle for new TV remotes.
sets, plus consumer resistance to wearing glasses
at home, means that progress may be slow. Broadcasters embrace social media, adding hash
tags to content to encourage tweeting.
More positively, viewers will continue to view
more internet content through their TVs, leading We will see some broadcasters experimenting
to growth in services such as Apple TV and with their monetisation and windowing
Google TV, plus the hugely successful BBC strategies, launching free-to-air content across
iPlayer. different platforms to try to find the best way to
grow revenue and audiences. Meanwhile, big
At the same time Tablets enter the living room. pay-per-view players like Sky will retaliate with
Innovative services are now emerging where entertainment and sports deals (similar to their
content is on the TV control and metadata is on recent HBO contract), ensuring consumers still
Tablets. pay for content in key areas.
39. EXPERIENCE WARS:
THE LIVING ROOM IS
THE BATTLEGROUND
3D TV will continue to
grow – but will it boom?
Companion experiences
will emerge for most
Virgin's TiVo box – it learns what you shows on Tablets
like then records content for you,
helping to discover new shows and
keep up with what you like
Microsoft‟s Kinect is changing the
way we interact with our TVs
Remote controls will innovate,
becoming gestural, social and
touch based