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- 8. 1. Drivers of change often private & internal Often initiative from SF & traders Public — Gov’t & NGO — can help, but not always necessary Stimulus often from domestic markets, not exports • Domestic marketing demands less stringent
- 9. 2. Cautious Commercialisation • Small areas switched to crops for market • SF rarely sacrifice food crops • Double-edged sword! • SF intensify • fertiliser, (sometimes) improved seed & agro-chemicals • hired labour • Biggest Step? Irrigation Gradual, marginal changes
- 10. 3. Active Labour, Land markets … •2010: 82 days •2012: 138 days Lume: > 90% households hired labour: days annual household: 2010 2012 % households renting in land 13% 45% US$ per hectare 200 340
- 11. 4. But sticky Capital Mkts • NOT: credit from Banks, advances from input dealers, traders or processors Working K from SF savings • BUT may • slow process • limit degree • restrict which households participate Lack of credit not a barrier
- 12. 5. Returns good, Incomes rising … 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Tef Wheat Chickpeas Lentils Onion Tomato Green pepper Lume, Gross Margin, US$/ha
- 13. Kenyan gross margins - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 Tomatoes, virgin landTomatoes, old landCabbages, high seasonCabbages, off season US$perha
- 14. Farm incomes, by commercialisation 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Ethiopia Ghana Malawi Tanzania US$ Low CI Mid CI Upper CI
- 15. Crop income, by index commercialisation Ghana, Ethiopia & Malawi - 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 - 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 US$Median Commercialisation Index
- 16. 6. … But does it divide? Households w. more Land, Savings, Assets, (sometimes) better Education take up opps • Fewer assets than males Female farmers often disadvantaged • BUT commercial farming D farm labour, so landless & poor can benefit Social differences may widen.
- 17. POLICY POINTERS
- 18. Paradox of Public Policy •Comprehensive direct action by state not necessary?! Not all cases result from programmes to commercialise • Encouragement to rural enterprise from painful reforms in 1980s & 90s has paid off Importance of private initiative
- 19. BUT: Public action critical: • Remember: Ghana late 1970s, Ethiopia under Derg, Tanzania late 1970s! Investment climate • Schools, health posts • Investment in Public Goods pays Roads vital … rural public goods No need for magic bullets?
- 20. Role for Min Agriculture • SS irrigation in Lume • Upgrading irrigation intakes in central Tanzania Strategic, limited support by Min Ag helps: • Commercial opps need for Innovations & Tech support • Extension services most effective with comm SF? Technical challenges
- 21. Riddle of Rural Finance Lack of K limits Investment, further gains Improve rural financial systems • But with care! • Promise: M-pesa, Equity Bank
- 22. Correct Female Disadvantage Agricultural policy will not transform longstanding gender imbalances … BUT:Recognise & support women’s rights to land & water, Invest in drinking water … things that take women’s time Providing extension for female farmers
- 23. Thinking on … Futures for SF Strengths Weaknesses • Self-supervising, diligent labour • Knowledge of land and local conditions • Flexible production • Limited access to capital, inputs • Risks in production & marketing • Meeting standards of some supply chains Opportunities Threats • Urban growth • Asian markets • Much unused land: ‘sleeping giant’ • Technical advances, already known & others likely • Climate change • Land alienation • Policy biases • Demanding supply chains
- 24. Farm household surveys Ethiopia 160 Sep/Nov 2009 Ghana 300 Nov/Dec 2010 Kenya 200 Nov/Dec 2009 Malawi 300 Oct/Nov 2009 Tanzania 287 Aug/Dec 2009, Oct/Nov 2010