Mark Murphy's talk from Future Insights Live 2014 in Las Vegas: "2013 marked the year when smartphones reached a billion users. With that milestone behind us, let's look at what we as developers should expect from the next billion users." Miss his talk? Join us at a future show: www.futureofmobile.com. Sign up for our newsletter at futureinsights.com and get 15% off your next conference.

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The Fuuuuuuuuuu-
uuuuuuuuuuuture!
The Next Billion

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2013: 900+ million smartphones sold

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one billion users

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apps!

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dedication

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hard work

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energy drinks

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world population = 7.145 billion

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the next billion

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change is constant

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nature of users

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nature of the world in which our
users live

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image courtesy of Wikimedia Foundation

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multiple overlapping lifecycles

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next billion: lots of early majority

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drivers for adoption

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innovators intrinsic

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early adopters intrinsic

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early majority extrinsic

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what's my motivation?

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peer pressure

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kids

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plasticity

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adaptability

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dancing

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different strokes for different folks

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next billion: learning curve

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UX

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discoverability

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tap

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swipe

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pinch

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long tap

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double touch drag

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handstand back 3 flip with
one-and-a-half-twists in the pike
position

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core features = core gestures

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do the expected

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adhere to standards

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innovate UX carefully

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assistance

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RTFM

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Read The hey we Forgot the Manual

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manuals = boring

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JIT assistance

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on-demand popup overlays

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on-demand screencast demos

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Read The Fun Manual

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entertainment

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language

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i18n

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geek is not a native language

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speak like a human, please
#KTHXBYE

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what do early users use?

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social network
streaming media
game
utility
social network
social network
game
streaming media
game messaging
messaging
game
utility
utility
utility
streaming media
game
utility
utility
game

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pointy-haired boss

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early adopters: trying new
technologies to solve problems

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early majority: more use in solving
problems

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more emphasis on business apps

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more emphasis on bespoke apps

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bespoke in the large

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bespoke in the small

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who will write these things?

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scalability of development

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scalability of developer
language

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scalability of development
language

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cross platform

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cross platform means never
having to say you're sorry

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cross platform means always
having to say you're sorry

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bespoke priorities !=
mass-market priorities

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security

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defending your users' data

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defending your users

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making convenient also be secure

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countless other differences

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skate to where the puck is going

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first billion = low-hanging fruit

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how will you help the next billion?