Some key dimensions of Chinese growth dynamics

1. Changing China:
Insights
into Chinese dynamics

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3. accelerating
Inconceivable rates of change
Examples
Before the Expo, Shanghai had 4 metro lines; 3 years later there are 10
There are 6,500 kms hi-speed train lines; by 2020 there will be 20,000 kms
Anecdotes
Interviewee left for a week; returning she couldn't find home due to a new tunnel
Bar advertised as venue for world cup TV; it had closed before opening match
Insight
State capable of rising to almost any challenge
Rate of change likely to accelerate through own momentum; no signs of inertia
Reasons for change
Size, stupid
1.3 bn (damn!) : you feel the pressure of people and the need to fight to survive
Ultra competitive: 1 place for every 90 university applicants
Starting over
Cultural Revolution = no intellectuals, no city culture, no entrepreneurs, no change
Change is so good because past/history is so bad
Keeping up with change is a key status indicator; even the old feel this pressure
Conversations regularly start with dialogue about what's new, what's the latest Going underground

4. climbing
Getting to the top
Stress
Chinese hide stress well; no visible tension, aggression
There is mental illness however; e.g. 3 student suicides in early June 2010
But 'face' is important concept i.e. best to not show stress
Letting off steam through alcohol is OK; bosses get tipsy on nights' out
Work rate
Work long hours, but to western eyes workers can seem less productive
In truth, there is always a good cultural reason for taking the 'long way round'
Common to see people asleep in public
Leaving the ratrace
Almost impossible to slow down, down shift
Pressure of having to support 6 adults in retirement (2 parents; 4 grandparents)
Social pressure is enormous to keep up with the changes and not be left out
New ways to succeed
New parents want their kids to be more rounded, to have fun
Kids still need to pass exams but are being taught to be innovative
Insight
Whilst achievement is all motivating, already signs that success has to be fun
Little Emperor's (single kid's) values will change Chinese society forever
At the top : Park Hyatt
In 10 years, a creative generation will change Chinese brands' image & success
is World's Tallest hotel

5. shopping
Retail Therapy
It really works!
Going shopping is a hobby for most middle-class urbanites
It is explicity claimed as an anti-stress tool; work hard to spend hard
Young spend everything; makes work worthwhile; a very tight connection
From thin air
With low salaries & high rents, how do they spend so much?
In 1998 most were virtually given their homes; since then prices are up 10 times
Home prices have tripled in last 3 years in Shanghai: people feel very wealthy
Grandparents are extremely thrifty but will give anything to their Little Emperors
The stock market has risen 160% in 5 years
Gifts
A 'gift' is a term often used to mean a bribe in China
State officials can expect to at least double their salaries through gifts
Luxury brands' might gain as much as half their sales revenues because of gifts
Anecdote: Salvatore Ferragamo customer ordered 300 ties to give as gifts
Municipalities fight to have luxury brands locate in their district, for presige - & gifts
What a luxury! Land-grab: LV have nearly 40
New middle-classes want Western luxury brands – now moving to tier 2 & 3 cities outlets in China; Burberry aim
Luxury wants China – prices 2.5 times European rates; shops look empty but at for 100 in mid-term
these margins, they can afford to wait!
However, C&A, Zara and H&M having success too

6. LONDON • PARIS
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