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Landscapes without livestock
Visualising the impacts of a potential 
decline in beef and sheep farming on some 
of England’s most cherished landscapes
Landscapes
without
livestock
Landscapes without Livestock
• Visualisations of the changes that could 
realistically occur if commercial beef and 
sheep farming were to decline significantly  
• Shown over four time periods: 
Now, 2014, 2021 and 2041
• In five different landscapes:
1. Upland pastures in the North York Moors
2. Rolling farmland in the Vale of Pickering
3. Lowland farming on Romney Marsh
4. Upland hillsides on Exmoor
5. Moorland commons on Dartmoor
Landscapes
without
livestock
Upland pastures in the North York Moors
• Beef cattle and sheep maintain small fields of permanent pasture divided by 
stone walls, hedges and woodland
2011
NOW
Landscapes
without
livestock
Upland pastures in the North York Moors
• Most fields receive little or no grazing
• Bracken has quickly colonised many fields  
• New woodlands have been planted for timber and wood fuel
2014
IN 3 YEARS
Landscapes
without
livestock
Upland pastures in the North York Moors
• Grazing is limited to a few sheep in the valley bottoms
• New woodland and the colonising bracken and scrub have created a wilder, 
rougher landscape
• Tourism and outdoor recreation provide new income for farmers
2021
IN 10 YEARS
Landscapes
without
livestock
Upland pastures in the North York Moors
• Livestock have all but disappeared from the landscape
• The old pattern of historic fields and boundaries is obscured by scrub
• Plantations for timber and wood fuel are a dominant feature
• Tourism and recreation enterprises have a visible impact
2041
IN 30 YEARS
Landscapes
without
livestock
Upland pastures in the North York Moors
2011
2041
Extensive upland 
pasture 
becomes …
Rough
grassland, 
woodland and 
tourism
Landscapes
without
livestock
Rolling farmland in the Vale of Pickering
2011
NOW
• Mixed farming with a rotation of arable crops and grassland leys
• Permanent pasture on fields unsuitable for arable cultivation
• Hedgerow trees flourish beside pasture, providing shade and shelter for 
livestock
Landscapes
without
livestock
Rolling farmland in the Vale of Pickering
2014
IN 3 YEARS
• Fields of pasture have been converted to permanent arable cropping, based 
around cereal production
• Hedgerows have been removed and field sizes have increased
• Remaining grassland receives less grazing and has become weedier
Landscapes
without
livestock
Rolling farmland in the Vale of Pickering
2021
IN 10 YEARS
• More fields have been converted to continuous arable cultivation, and more 
hedgerows have been removed to allow efficient use of machinery
• A large grain store has been erected on the skyline
• A camp site now occupies a small field not suitable for cultivation
Landscapes
without
livestock
Rolling farmland in the Vale of Pickering
2041
IN 30 YEARS
• Hedgerow trees have died  or are dying back (hastened by ploughing) and 
have not been replaced
• The campsite has become a more permanent feature with static caravans 
and roadways, catering for tourists
Landscapes
without
livestock
Rolling farmland in the Vale of Pickering
2011
2041
Rotational mixed 
farming  
becomes …
Intensive arable 
cropping with 
commercial 
development
Landscapes
without
livestock
Lowland farming on Romney Marsh
• Grazing of permanent pasture, by the Romney breed of sheep, is the main 
land use
• This produces a traditional landscape with abundant biodiversity
2011
NOW
Landscapes
without
livestock
Lowland farming on Romney Marsh
2014
• The rich soils have been drained with deep ditches and pump drainage
• Arable cropping for wheat and potatoes has started to replace the pasture
• Permanent pasture is retained around the church, but is grazed by ponies 
IN 3 YEARS
Landscapes
without
livestock
• Intensive arable cropping continues
• Ponies no longer graze the grassland around the church.  Rough vegetation 
and scrub has encroached on all the uncropped areas
• On the horizon a vegetable pack house and cold store has been erected 
Lowland farming on Romney Marsh
2021
IN 10 YEARS
Landscapes
without
livestock
Lowland farming on Romney Marsh
• The area of arable cropping has increased, taking in most of the grassland 
close to the church
• Scrub has encroached further around the church
• The vegetable pack houses on the horizon have been extended
IN 30 YEARS
Landscapes
without
livestock
Lowland farming on Romney Marsh
2011
2041
Lowland wet 
grassland 
becomes …
Drained and 
intensively 
cropped arable 
land
Landscapes
without
livestock
Upland hillsides on Exmoor
2011
NOW
• A pastoral and well‐wooded landscape, with beef cattle the predominant 
grazing animals
Landscapes
without
livestock
2014
Upland hillsides on Exmoor
IN 3 YEARS
• With beef farming no longer profitable, the farm has changed hands and the 
new owner now runs the farm as a part‐time ‘hobby farm’
• Game crops have been established to support a pheasant shoot
• New landowners are introducing new land uses, including a wind turbine
Landscapes
without
livestock
Upland hillsides on Exmoor
2021
IN 10 YEARS
• With the farm now run as a smallholding, pigs and poultry and a polytunnel 
have added to the diversity of land uses
• Management of the pasture, hedgerows and woodland is more relaxed 
giving the landscape a rougher look
Landscapes
without
livestock
Upland hillsides on Exmoor
IN 30 YEARS
• The impact of hobby farming land uses has increased
• Woodland cover has increased for timber and energy use
• Rows of solar panels have been erected in some fields as ‘solar farms’
• Overall, the landscape has become busier and more complex
Landscapes
without
livestock
Upland hillsides on Exmoor
2011
2041
Extensive beef 
farming 
becomes …
Hobby farming 
with increased 
diversity of land 
uses 
Landscapes
without
livestock
Moorland commons on Dartmoor
2011
• Historic systems of common grazing sustain internationally important 
upland moorland habitats
NOW
Landscapes
without
livestock
2014
Moorland commons on Dartmoor
• Numbers of hardy breeds of sheep and cattle decline
• Lack of grazing leads to rank growth of purple moor grass 
• Gorse and self‐sown conifers encroach on open moorland
IN 3 YEARS
Landscapes
without
livestock
Moorland commons on Dartmoor
2021
• The thick mat of ungrazed grass smothers heathland plants like heather
• The stone wall has been restored with grant aid but is obscured by tall 
grasses 
• Self‐sown conifers start to become significant features in the landscape
IN 10 YEARS
Landscapes
without
livestock
Moorland commons on Dartmoor
• The long dry grass has become a fire hazard, susceptible to uncontrolled wild 
fires
• The self‐sown trees and shrubs have grown taller and more prominent
• Having lost its original function, the stone wall has started to collapse
IN 30 YEARS
Landscapes
without
livestock
Moorland commons on Dartmoor
2011
2041
Open grass and 
heather 
moorland 
becomes …
Rank grassland 
and scrub at risk 
of wild fires
Landscapes
without
livestock
1
Summary of changes
2
3
5
4
Landscapes
without
livestock
2
1
Trajectories of change
Landscape diversity
Intensity of land use
Low diversity High diversity
Low intensityHigh intensity
5
4
3
Showing how the predicted
changes have affected the
intensity of land use and the
diversity of the landscape

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