5 immutable principles of project success (Denver PMI)

Five Immutable Principles of Project Success
Glen B. Alleman
Niwot Ridge, LLC
glen.alleman@niwotridge.com
+1 303 241 9633
All projects ‒ no matter domain ‒ are fraught with Technical, Cost, and Schedule
uncertainties, that create risk to project success.
Five Principles of Project Success increase the Probability of Project Success (PoPS)
through the application of Risk Management to all Practices and Procedures
Glen B. Alleman, Copyright © 2019
PMI Rocky Mountain Project Management Symposium, 19 April 2019
1/38

Principles are Required before
Practices and Processes can be Successful
Do not undertake a
project unless it is
manifestly important
and nearly impossible
Glen B. Alleman, Copyright © 2019 2/38

A Few Root Cause’s of Project Failure
(100’s are documented in Data Bases)
§ Unrealistic deadlines,
uninformed by risk without
margin or corrective actions
§ Communication deficits
between customers and
suppliers
§ Uncontrolled scope changes
§ Unmitigated resource
competition or conflicts
§ Uncertain dependencies
between deliverables, risks,
resources and externalities
§ Failure to manage risk
§ Insufficient delivery skills
§ Lack of accountability for
outcomes, with no definition of
needed Capabilities, their
Effectiveness or Performance
§ Disengaged customers or
stakeholders
§ Lack of business vision and
goal with missing tangible
Measures Effectiveness and
Performance
Before we start, let’s look at some failure modes for
projects, independent of any domain

1. What Does Done Look Like
in Units of Measure
Meaningful to the Decision
Makers?
2. How Do We Get to Done as
Needed?
3. Do We Have Enough Time,
Resources, And Money To
Get to Done?
4. What Impediments Will We
Encounter Along The Way
To Done?
5. How Do We Know We Are
Making Progress Toward
Done?
5 Immutable Principles Project Success
4
4/38

5 Immutable Principles of Project Success
§ Done means delivered capabilities that fulfill the
project Mission and Vision, described in units of
measure meaningful to the decision makers.
§ There is a Plan to reach Done at needed time for
needed budget
§ There is a Plan for execution of work using the
resources in place when needed to reach Done.
§ Impediments that will be encountered along the way
to Done and the Plan how they are to be handled.
§ Measures of progress to Plan are in units of Physical
Percent Complete to assure we arrive on time, on
budget, with the needed capabilities.

Three steps to success
§ Plan – is the strategy for successful
completion of the project.
§ Schedule – are the steps needed to
fulfill the Plan.
§ Execution – is the physical
performance of the steps needed to
deliver the results defined in the
Plan to implement the Strategy.
7/38Glen B. Alleman, Copyright © 2019

Scheduling
Only comes
after Planning
§ What are the
individual, dependent
and, sequential steps
needed to deliver
these capabilities?
§ The schedule has
durations,
dependencies, timing,
dates, resources and
other things related
with the Plan.
§ The idea that these
steps “emerge” is
fanciful in many
situations.Glen B. Alleman, Copyright © 2012 8/38

Action Outcome
Implement Strategy
Ensure Capabilities
Prioritize Problems And Solutions
Identify Redundancies
Deliver Solutions
† “Capabilities‒Based Planning: A Methodology for Deciphering
Commander’s Intent,” Peter Kossakowski, 10th ICCRTS, Track 12

What is a Deliverable?

Describe Done in Units of Measure Meaningful
to the Decision Makers
§ Develop a list of Capabilities and describe
their effectiveness, performance and technical
requirements as deliverables.
§ Develop the interdependencies between these
deliverables.
§ From the needed Capabilities develop the
Measures of Effectiveness and Measures of
Performance to assure they are what the
customer ordered.

“Done” Provides the Capability to Accomplish
Something
19 October 1899 Robert Goddard decided that he wanted to "fly without wings" to Moon.

Q2. How Do We Get There?
Some problems
respond to lightweight
approaches, like
Scrum, DSDM, Crystal,
and XP as product
development methods.
Others require more
complex approaches,
like a System of
Systems (SoS) spiral
development processes.
In all cases a disciplined
approach increases the
probability of success –
no matter the
complexity of the
problem or the solution
This approach works
well when we don’t
know what “done”
looks like with enough
clarity
So
Does
This!

Q3: Do We Have Everything We Need To Get To Done
as Planned?Glen B. Alleman, Copyright © 2019
14/38

A Common Problem A Simple Solution
We have undue optimism.
Use documented procedures – no matter the method –
for estimating and planning using historical data.
We attempt to avoid risk and
uncertainty.
Understand and prioritize risks for each critical
component empowers management and staff.
Use this knowledge to control your optimism.
We rely too much on intuitive
judgment.
Simple statistical models are more often correct than
human judgment.
Have the numbers to back up your intuition.
The Rational Planning of (Software) Projects, Mark C. Paulk, Software Engineering Institute, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA
15213–3890

Getting to Done On–time and On–budget,.
With the Needed Capabilities
§ Construct a schedule for all the work needed to
produce the deliverables.
§ Define “packages of work” for all the activities
with deliverables defined as “exit criteria.”
§ Define progress in units of increasing maturity for
each deliverable to it can be compared to the
needed maturity at each point in the schedule

The schedule tells us the order of the planned work
This sketch is Warner Van Braun’s notional concept to get to the moon from Marshall
Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Alabama

The Schedule Shows Progress To Plan
§ Deliverables represent the required mission
capabilities and its value as defined by the business
and shared by the contractor team.
§ When all deliverables and their Work Packages are
complete, they are not revisited or reopened.
– They are 100% done.
§ The progression of Work Packages defines the
increasing maturity of the deliverables.
– The mission value of the deliverables to the customer
increases as Work Packages are completed.
§ Completion of Work Packages is represented by the
Physical Percent Completion of the deliverables.
– Either 0%/100% or Apportioned Milestones are used
to state the completion of each Work Package.
Mission
Capabilities
Technical
Capabilities
Packages of
Work
Deliverables

§ Vertical traceability ACè SAè PE
§ Horizontal traceability WPè WPèAC
Program Deliverables
Define the maturity
of a Capability at a point in
time.
Significant Accomplishments
Represent requirements
that enable Capabilities.
Accomplishment Criteria
Exit Criteria for the Work
Packages that fulfill Requirements.
Package
of Work
Package
of Work
Package
of Work
Package
of Work
Package
of Work
Package
of Work
Package
of Work
Package
Of Work
The Schedule Connects Work to Deliverables

Plan for the needed resources to arrive on time
§ List the needed staff, materials and facilities for
the project.
§ Assign staff and materials to the work
packages.
§ Estimate the cost of the staff and materials and
the impact of this variance on the total project
cost and delivery schedule.

1. Hope is not a strategy
2. No single point estimate of cost or schedule can be correct
3. Cost, Schedule, and Technical Performance are inseparable
4. Risk management requires adherence to a well defined
process
5. Communication is the Number One success factor
21/38

Taxonomy of Uncertainties that Create
Irreducible and Reducible Risk.
These Require Estimates of Direct and Residual Impacts
of these Risks on the Probability of Project Success
Uncertainty
Irreducible
(Aleatory)
Reducible
(Epistemic)
Natural Variability
Ambiguity about
behavior of process
Ontological
Uncertainty
Probability of
Event’s Occurrence
Probabilistic Impact
from Event
Period of Exposure
to Event
Period of Exposure
to Aleatory Process
22/38

Risk
Management
Demands Direct
Communication
Between All
Participants in
the Project
23/38

§ Make a list of risks and rank them by priority.
§ Assess impact on cost and schedule for each risk
and the dependencies of these risks on external
and internal drivers.
§ Assess the probability of occurrence and the
probabilistic impact on cost and schedule
impact, cost of handling, and cost of the residual
risk after handling.
Identify impediments to progress and fix them,
with Direct work or Margin

Q5:
How Do We Know We Are Making Progress
Toward Done?
25/38

26/3
Primary Measures of
Progress to Plan
Are We Done?
When will we be Done?
What will it cost to be
Done?
§What does Done look like for
the customer?
§How will we recognize Done
when it arrives?
§What’s our confidence of
getting to Done?
§Are we removing or reducing
impediments to getting to done
as needed?Glen B. Alleman, Copyright © 2019
26/38

§ Use actual or predicted values from:
¤ Engineering measurements
¤ Tests
¤ Experiments
¤ Prototypes
§ For Example:
¤ Response time
¤ Range
¤ Power
¤ Weight
¤ MTTFF/MTTR/MTBF
Technical Performance Measure(s) …
§ Tell us how well a system is achieving the planned performance
requirements at the planned time, for the planned cost in units of
Physical Percent Complete to Plan

28/3
28/38

Trade Offs Between
Cost, Schedule,
and
Technical Performance is
a Ponzi Scheme without
Margin and a Risk
Management Plan
When we’re on baseline, the
algebraic relationship
between C,S,P, means when
there is a change in one of
these measures everyone
looses.
Charles Ponzi,
Born March 3, 1882, Italy.
Died Jan 18, 1949, Brazil.
Served 5 years federal prison,
9 years state prison,
deported to Italy.
29/38

Cost and Schedule
Performance is informed by
Risk Informed Technical
Performance Measures for
each Deliverable.
Business Performance is
informed with Measures of
Effectiveness and Measures
of Performance for each
Capability produced by the
Project.
30/38

§ Measuring Physical Percent Complete is the
core of every successful project
management method.
§ It answers the question of what “done” looks
like in units of measure meaningful to the
decision makers.
§ It answers questions like:
¤ What does done look like for today, this week?
¤ What does done look like for entry/exit into the
technical review?
¤ What does done look like for quality control?
¤ What does done look like for the customer?
Physical Percent Complete
31/38

§ Describe the outcomes of the work effort
using language the customer understands
§ Assign Technical Performance Measures to
the Deliverables
§ Assign Measures of Performance, Measures
of Effectiveness, Key Performance
Parameters, and Integrate these throughout
the project
Measure progress to Plan as
“Physical Percent Complete”

The Root Causes Of Program Performance
Impacts
Unrealistic Performance Expectations,
missing Measures of Effectiveness, and
Measures of Performance
Unrealistic Cost and Schedule estimates
based on inadequate risk adjusted
growth models
Inadequate assessment of risk and
unmitigated exposure to these risks
without proper handling plans
Unanticipated Technical issues without
alternative plans and solutions to
maintain effectiveness
Cost and
Schedule
Impacts
TheLensofthePerformance
AssessmentBorrowed from Mr. Gary R. Bliss is the Director,
Performance Assessments and Root Cause
Analyses (PARCA), in the Office of the Assistant
Secretary of Defense for Acquisition.

The Five Principles Of Project Success
Done described in meaningful units
A time and budget plan for Done
Planned resources to reach Done
Handling impediments along the way
Measuring progress to plan

Evidence of the 5 Principles put into Practice in a
range of domains
Principle
Traditional
Practice
Agile
Practice
What does Done Look Like in
Units of Measure Meaningful to
the Decision Makers?
Capabilities Based Planning
with Measures of Effectiveness
and Performance
Product Road Map
How do we get to Done? Integrated Master Plan Release Plan
What Resources needed to get
to Done?
Resource loaded Integrated
Master Schedule
Agile development team staff
assignments to Sprints,
Integration and User
Acceptance Testing
What are the Impediments to
getting to Done?
Management Plan for Reducible and Irreducible Uncertainties
that Create Risk
What are the Meaningful
Measures of Progress toward
Done?
using risk adjusted Performance
Management to produce
Estimate to Complete
measuring progress to Release
Plan and Product Roadmap
outcomes as planned
35/38

The Project Train Wreck Starts When There Is …
§ Inattention to budget, schedule and technical
responsibilities.
§ Work authorizations not always followed (out of
sequence work).
§ Issues with Budget, Schedule, and Technical data
reconciliation.
§ Lack of an Integrated Management System.
§ Plans fluctuations with frequent replanning.
§ Improper use of Management Reserve.
§ Performance Measures don’t reflect actual
Physical Percent Complete.
§ Lack of predictive variance analysis from data.
§ Untimely and unrealistic Revised Estimates.
§ Progress to Plan not monitored in a regular and consistent manner.
§ Lack of connection between cost, schedule, and technical performance.
§ Lack of project performance oversight by independent surveillance team.
§ Managerial corrective actions not connected to Risk Management Processes.

Five Immutable Principles Tested as Questions
Capabilities Requirements Plans Execution
2. What technical and operational requirements are
needed to deliver these capabilities?
1. What capabilities are needed to fulfill the Concept of Operations,
the Mission and Vision, or the Business System Requirements?
3. What schedule delivers the product or
services on time to meet the requirements?
4. What periodic measures of
physical percent complete
assure progress to plan?
What impediments to success, their mitigations, retirement plans,
or “buy downs are in place to increase the probability of success?”
+ Continuous Risk Management
Œ

Ž


38/38

5 immutable principles of project success (Denver PMI)

Recomendados

Recomendados

Más contenido relacionado

La actualidad más candente

La actualidad más candente (20)

Similar a 5 immutable principles of project success (Denver PMI)

Similar a 5 immutable principles of project success (Denver PMI) (20)

Más de Glen Alleman

Más de Glen Alleman (20)

Último

Último (20)

5 immutable principles of project success (Denver PMI)