The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA), the voice of the global business travel industry, announces the results of its latest GBTA BTI™ Outlook - Western Europe report, a semi-annual analysis of the five most critical business travel markets in Europe: Germany, the UK, France, Italy and Spain. These five markets together form the lion's share of business travel in the region, nearly 70%, and act as a good barometer of the health of the entire European business travel market. The report, sponsored by Visa Inc., includes the GBTA BTI™, an index of business travel spending that distills market performance over a period of time. The full report is available for purchase for non-members and at no cost for GBTA members. To learn more about the Global Business Travel Association please visit www.gbta.org.

1. GBTA BTI™ Outlook – Western Europe
Prospects for Domestic & International Outbound Business Travel 2013-2014
2013H2
The European business travel market continues to contract under
the weight of the troubled economies on the southern periphery
and a weak global recovery. We appear to have reached an
inflection point, however, and expect slight growth in business
travel spending in the last quarter of 2013. We expect business
travel spending among our five key markets to grow 3.4%, in
aggregate, in 2014 – the largest annual growth in spending since
the Great Recession.

2. GBTA BTI™ Outlook – Western Europe 2013H2
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for internal company use.
EUROPEAN ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
Current Conditions
After six consecutive quarters of decline, Europe
may have finally turned the corner. Real GDP
growth crossed into positive territory in 2013Q2,
advancing at a 1.3% annualized rate. This is
hopefully a beginning. Significant challenges
remain, however, particularly in the peripheral
countries. The recession experienced across the
Eurozone was deeper than originally anticipated
and has lasted longer than hoped. Depressed
demand, weak credit markets, fragile bank balance
sheets, a sluggish export environment, and flagging
confidence combined to exacerbate the downturn
that began in late 2011.
European economic growth remains a two-speed
story with the Northern “core” markets showing
meager positive growth that has not yet been
enough to compensate for the still-negative
performance of the Southern tier. The graph at
right illustrates this North-South divide showing
France, Germany and the United Kingdom achieving
positive GDP growth in 2013Q2 (Q1 as well for the
UK) while Italy and Spain continued to post declines.
It has been a bumpy ride for Europe over the past
six quarters. The key question is whether this
fledgling momentum can be maintained.
Despite what appears to be a cyclical turn for the
better, Europe’s long term challenges are far from
solved. Bond rates in many peripheral countries
are still above what is needed for sustainable debt
progress, relative wages and productivity gains
have not yet resulted in sufficient improvements in
European competitiveness, credit markets are still
stalled across the region, and debt-driven austerity
measures have hindered economic growth. The
vicious cycle of debt, banking stress, tight credit,
rising unemployment, cautious consumers, and business uncertainty has yet to entirely brake.
In the meantime, there are some encouraging signs emerging among Europe’s high frequency indicators, particularly
in Northern tier countries. Consumer and business confidence is up, consumer spending has slowly gathered momentum in
the first half of 2013, exports are improving, and some housing markets have begun to firm. The European Central Bank’s
(ECB) moves to backstop the private banking system and maintain an aggressive monetary policy stance have bought
valuable time for peripheral Europe to make progress on long-term debt and short-term fiscal imbalances. The rewards
for that time may be beginning to appear in some of the high frequency indicators.
For example, consumer and business sentiment is improving across the Eurozone. The following chart shows the
Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) for our five key business travel markets. The ESI is a monthly composite index built from
various consumer and business survey results. The index assesses general confidence in the economy, both at present and
for the near-term future. It is centered on a long-term average value of 100. The good news is that all 5 countries are
trending up. The not-so-good news is that only a handful of markets have reached the 100 level as of July 2013. Still, the
direction and pace are promising. Moreover, the split between the performance of the Northern tier countries and the

3. GBTA BTI™ Outlook – Western Europe 2013H2
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for internal company use.
EUROPEAN BUSINESS TRAVEL PERFORMANCE
Overview
The GBTA BTI™ Outlook – Western Europe includes an analysis of the five most critical business travel markets:
Germany, the UK, France, Italy, and Spain. These five markets together form the lion’s share of business travel on the
continent, nearly 70%, and act as a good barometer of the health of the entire European business travel market.
Last year proved to be a challenging one for the Western
European6 economy and for business travel. Fallout from the
sovereign debt crisis weighed heavily on business spending, hiring,
confidence, and borrowing. In this environment, business travel
policies were tightened and budgets were reduced or frozen.
Total travel spend across the 5 key markets combined to register a
decline of 2.2% in 2012, to $177.4 billion USD (€138B).
Germany remained the largest business travel market in Europe
reaching $50.5 billion USD (€39,302) in 2012. Our 5 key markets
now comprise over 68% of all Western European business travel
spending, up by about 1% over 2011.
While Germany and the UK eked out small positive growth rates for the year, negative performance in Italy, Spain,
and France overwhelmed the slight growth in the North. . Unfortunately, the first half of 2013 brought deteriorating
year-on-year performance for Italy, Spain,
and (to a lesser extent) France, while
Germany and the UK were gathering
positive momentum. Analyzing the
quarterly rates of change across all five
markets and considering their
interdependence, 2013Q3 feels like a
bottom. The Southern peripheral countries
are expected to continue to decline for the
remainder of this year and into early 2014,
but with Germany and the UK’s gathering
momentum, the region will see a return to
growth in 2014. The GBTA Foundation
expects travel spending to be essentially
flat in 2013 then rise by 3.4% the following year.
In order to forecast individual domestic and IOB business travel spending, we look for the strongest and most
reliable correlations with European economic and market indicators. The indicators are chosen based upon both
statistical testing and economic fundamentals. For example, corporate profits and domestic business travel spending
show a strong and consistent relationship over the course of the business cycle. The following chart illustrates this
correlation by charting French corporate profits (nonfinancial operating surplus) and domestic business travel spending
over the same time period. Converting each to a year-over-year percentage, the business cycle becomes very
evident, as does the tight association between the two indicators. The GBTA Foundation has used statistical methods
to determine just how strong this relationship is and then folds corporate profits into our econometric model of France
5 GBTA BTI™ Global Business Travel Report, July 2013
6 France, German, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom plus Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden,
Switzerland
Total Business Travel Spend By Country (2012;
MM $USD)5
Germany $50,517 (€39,302)
United Kingdom $40,631 (£25,638)
France $35,676 (€27,756)
Italy $32,573 (€25,341)
Spain $17,990 (€13,996)
Other $82,709 (€64,348)
Total Western Europe $260,095 (€202,354)
(€197,936 million)

4. GBTA BTI™ Outlook – Western Europe 2013H2
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for internal company use.
France
French business travel spending totaled $8.68
billion USD in 2013 Q2 (€6.8 billion), on a
seasonally adjusted basis. This represents a
2.6% annual decline in spend and coincides
with a 0.5% growth in real GDP over that
same period. This total is slightly worse than
the $8.69 billion we projected for Q4 in our
2013H1 BTI™ Outlook. Our revised 2012
totals show that French business travel
spending declined -2.3% for the year, ending
at $35.7 billion USD.
We expect that business travel in France will
continue to slow over the third quarter before
finally experiencing some quarterly growth at the end of the year. It appears that the business travel market in France is
finally ready to regain a positive growth trajectory. The long-term challenges that this market faces, however, are much
more significant – namely – whether or not France can compete in the global economy without significant reform in the
areas of pensions, taxes and social benefits. If not addressed, the French business travel market runs the risk of rapidly
loosing ground as one of the major markets for European and global business travel.
We expect total business travel spending to fall by -2.3% in 2013 to $34.9 billion USD. Business travel spending will see
small gains in 2014, expanding by 2.7% to $35.8 billion USD.
Domestic business travel spending continues to stagnate in 2013 and we expect annual growth of 0.3%. We expect 2014
to be a much better year for domestic business travel in France when spending is projected to grow 4.6%. International
outbound spending, however, will fare significantly worse. We expect a decline of -6.7% in French IOB spending in 2013,
a result of continued weakness among France’s key trading partners. We expect the losses to slow in 2014 when total IOB
spending will fall -0.9%.