P2.3. Building Regional and National Community Learning Platforms for Climate Change and Food Security
1. Climate change forecasts: implications for
regional climate change partnerships
Dr James Kinyangi,
Regional Program Leader,
East Africa (CCAFS/ILRI)
3. A billion people go hungry
Another billion suffer nutrient deficiencies
Another billion over-consume
In 15 years there will be another billion
people to feed
4. 100% (+/- 11%) more food needed by
2050
with current trajectories of
diets & populations
Tilman et al 2011
Proc. National Academy Science
5. Length of growing season
is likely to decline..
Length of growing
period (%)
>20% loss
To 2090, taking 14 5-20% loss
climate models No change
5-20% gain
>20% gain
Four degree rise
Thornton et al. (2010) Proc. National Academy
Science
6. 19-29%
global
GHGs from
food
systems
Vermeulen et al. 2012
Annual Review of Environment and Resources
8. Ensuring close connection
with users
Regional Learning Partnership Platform
3 National workshops -
Setting policy and research
priorities
Participatory action research
across 5 sites
9. Illustrative 3-yr
outcome targets
1. CCAFS (and partner) science used by key stakeholders to
ensure that agriculture is appropriately incoprrated
into the international climate agreements
2. CCAFS (and partner)-produced tools and approaches
used by the UNFCCC in the guidelines for national
adaptation planning and used in adaptation planning
in at least 10 countries
3. CCAFS (and partner) science used by at least 6 major
global agencies to provide incentives for women and
men to do pro-poor mitigation
10. 3. From outcome mapping to
partnerships
Outcome mapping Scaling up strategies
Development partners needed Research
products needed Research partners needed
11. 1. Linking knowledge with action
What? Who?
Tree planting NGO’s – CARE, World Neighbors, Vi
Beekeeping Gov’t Extension; CBO’s – local groups
Shifts to small stock Local researchers – KARI teams
Crop/income diversification CG researchers
Climate resilient crops Strategies
Outcome mapping
The research Learning workshops Outcomes
KARI/CG research teams Exchange visits Ext services more
testing and evaluating Gender research demand-driven;
improved practices with training enhanced services
farmers Local TV, radio, cell Research largely
Baselines; Monitoring change (incl. info on CSA options driven by user
GHG’s); various indicators needs
What inst’s and approaches benefit NGO’s informed by
women? Enhance equity? research and
Changes in practices – what’s climate responsive to user
resilient? What changes are men vs. needs
women making?
12. 2. From local participatory work to
regional impact
• Mali Met. Service, ACMAD,
WMO
• Forecasts provided for
3‐days, 10‐days, and
seasonal (inc. crop health...)
• Major increases in yields for
participating farmers
• Also South-South exchange
• Together with USAID, CCAFS is exploring scaling up
best practice across the Sahel
13. To meet the challenges of climate change,
strong partnerships are needed from local
to global levels
Thank you
Notas del editor
Agriculture sits at the nexus of three major challenges that will face humankind in the 21st century.
The first challenge for agriculture relates to achieving food security. Nearly a billion people go hungry today, another billion over-consume and in 15 years there will be another billion persons to feed.
It is estimated that 100% more food will be needed by 2050 (assuming current trajectories of diets and populations). This has major implications for land cover change.
The second challenge for agriculture relates to climate change adaptation. And if there is a single graph to show this challenge then it is this one for SSA.Thornton from ILRI uses a four degree temperature rise scenario, which based on current commitments to reduce GHGs is a distinct possibility. By 2090 vast areas of Africa will have experienced >20% reduction in growing season length. And huge areas 5-20% reduction. Almost no areas have rises in growing season. This illustrates the magnitude of potential impacts on agriculture from climate change.
The third challenge for agriculture relates to its environmental footprint. Recent compilations suggest that food systems contribute 19-29% of global greenhouse gasses, including those through land cover change. The CCAFS program is designed to tackle these challenges.
In CCAFS we don’t start with research questions and hypotheses. We start with what we want to achieve. Together with partners we define the kinds of outcomes we want to see.
To ensure co-learning amongst ourselves and key stakeholders, in order to define mutually agreed outcomes and to build the partnerships needed for impact, we have to ensure that users of the research have a say in defining the research. And this has to happen at different scales.In east Africa, this is what we undertook in 2011.Regional platform ……National level -----Site-level much of our work is participatory, so that farmers can give input into research priorities and approaches used.
These are some of our globally-defined outcomes. I wont read them all. They are illustrative of the kinds of outcomes we want to achieve within three years. Once we have the outcomes defined we determine what partners we need to ensure the outcomes, what strategies we need to ensure science goes into action, and what research prodcuts are needed.To illustrate #3, the outcome we want is to influence how major agencies approach agricultural mitigation, to ensure that mitigation is a co-benefit of pro-poor gender senstive development. To achieve this outcome we identify some of the major players in mitigation and embark on joint action research. In East Africa this has seen us working with CARE and other NGOs, the WB, national agencies.
We work backwards from our outcome mapping – what strategies do we need to ensure widespread impact, what development partners can help us with that, what research products are needed to make a difference, and finally what research partners are needed to produce those products. I now give two examples of research/
CCAFS works closely with the meteorological agencies.This example comes from West Africa.In Mali we work together with the Malian Met Services, the regional Met organisation and WMO. CCAFS and partners are evaluating how climate information is delivered to farmers and how they use it.In the pilot scheme farmers get various types of forecasts and as a result major increases in yields have been achieved compared to non-participating farmers.This work also involves South-South exchange, where we see the Indian Met Services getting together with West african agencies to exchange experienceTogether with …………..So, this is a multi-partner initiative designed for impact.