War and peace are two powerful forces that have been shaping civilizations. Every nation has gone through various degrees of conflicts. In this paper, the author asks what history lessons can be used to educate the public and policy makers on conflict prevention. If we were to avoid repeating the mistakes and wars of the past, the author believes new innovative approaches are needed for solving old problems of conflicts within a nation and between nations. Alongside current steps to promote social order, the psychology of war and peace must be adequately looked into and utilized in forming the needed policies.

1. The Economics Psychology of War and Peace
By
Gene Balinggan
Professor, Psychology, Sociology, SPED
University of the Cordilleras
(The opinions expressed in this paper belong to the author and do not represent the
university)
War and peace are two powerful forces that have been shaping civilizations. Every nation
has gone through various degrees of conflicts. Since the Second World War, the United
Nations may not have been that successful in maintaining the peace among nations; every
year since then, some form of a violent conflict or war existed in different parts of the
globe. According to the Global Peace Index (Independent, 2016), there are only 10
countries that are free from conflict. The think tank’s analysis of the past 10 years declared
that these areas are Chile, Costa Rica, Japan, Mauritius, Qatar, Switzerland, Uruguay, and
Vietnam.
In Europe, the war in Donbass, Ukraine, the annexation of Crimea, along with rising
tensions between the Baltic States and Russia threaten the future of Europe and raise the
risk of using nuclear weapons (Johnston, 2015). Current reports state that Moscow is
firmly set on nuclear weapon modernisation despite Western sanctions and operation
costs (Davis, 2017). Particularly, this mindset of hybrid warfare has been increasingly
threatening to NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization).
Since the Afghanistan war in the 1980s, this is the first time that Russia has been directly
involved in attacking CIA supplied forces. The pipeline geopolitics led to a genocide-like
conflict in Damascus (Ahmed, 2015). Consequently, the US and Russian proxy conflicts
in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Saudi, Turkey, Iran and Israel threaten the peace of the whole world;
again, the main interest of the conflict is the control of oil and gas resources and
transportation pipes (Mazzetti, Barnard, &Schmitt, 2016).
In Africa, the recent conflicts, including Mozambique, Mali, Congo, Libya and Darfur,
threaten to destroy the development progress madeover the years. For instance, although
Libya has a new peace deal, rebels view the territory as a key base. Mali’s peace which is
merely attributed to international troops and financial assistance is threatened by the
corrupt elite and terrorist attacks. Seemingly, these remaining conflicts are tightly
collected from Northern Mali, along Algeria and Libya into Egypt (Dorrie, 2016).

2. Similar tensions have been observed in South East Asia. According to the US Council on
Foreign Relations, "The risk of conflict in the South China Sea is significant. China,
Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and the Philippines have competing territorial and
jurisdictional claims, particularly over rights to exploit the region's possibly extensive
reserves of oil and gas" (Glasser, 2012, para.1). An update of the report stated that
perceived potential conflict remains (Glasser, 2015). This is a vital issue for numerous
nations since around $5 trillion worth of annual trade utilizing the strategically positioned
waters is at stake.
In addition, the threat of nuclear war between North and South Korea is becoming more
real with time (Ford, 2016). The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), have been giving
out threatening statements such as: “if we push buttons to annihilate the enemies… (they)
will be reduced to seas in flames and ashes in a moment”, “DPRK’s access to H-bomb of
justice… is the legitimate right of a sovereign state”, and “Nuclear warheads need to be
ready for use any time”.
Unfortunately, the arrival of a new US president with no diplomatic experience raises the
risks for actual conflict (Goldberg, 2016). Strikingly, Goldberg asserted that “there is
nothing in Donald Trump’s record to suggest that he has the self-possession, discipline,
analytical sophistication, and capacity to assimilate new information that would allow him
to cope with a North Korea-sized challenge” (para 6). Inopportunely, the rise of US
military power as a key force in settling international disputes may only serve as an
example for other nations to accelerate the armament and design similar policies of
prioritizing the use of force over diplomacy.
In this paper, the author asks what history lessons can be used to educate the public and
policymakers on conflict prevention. If we were to avoid repeating the mistakes and wars
of the past, the author believes new innovative approaches are needed for solving old
problems of conflicts within a nation and between nations.
History can be a great teacher on how certain government socioeconomic policies and
processes lead to conflict and battles as well as on strategies to quell them. The following
discussions delve into the reasons and influences of war as well as suggested steps to attain
peace. The case studies explore civil conflict between various groups, but the lessons are
also applicable to international groups. The United Nations and its development agencies
can play a key role in promoting peace and prosperity.
One of the modern examples of failed government socioeconomic policies that led to one
of the longest and most damaging civil war can be found in the experience of the state of
Lebanon. The war erupted in 1975 and ended in 1990. The bloodshed cost 170,000 lives

3. (Norkonmaa, 1995). The basic forces of the civil conflict in the small Lebanese state can
be seen as the same for all conflicts at different scales from the shorter and less disturbing
civil unrest in Los Angeles in 1992 that led to killing 55 and injuring 2000 people,
arresting 11, 000 protesters, widespread looting, assault, arson, and other forms of
property damage of over $1 billion (CNN, 2016), to the horrifying 40 to 85 million death
range of World War II. Conflict within a nation and between nations is almost always a
result of power (control of resources) struggle between various factions. The scale, the
methods and the fuel of the conflict differ, but in its essence, is an attempt at gaining or
protecting power between the involved parties.
Unfortunately, for the general population, the cost of war far exceeds the rewards of
power. This however is untrue for the elites who believe they can avoid paying for the war
with their property or the lives of their loved ones. The cost of war does not end with the
end of war, the psychological cost of war can last for more than one generation and the
survivors will have to bear the socioeconomic burdens of the gambles of the elites (Yones,
1998).
The Taif Peace Agreement in Lebanon, also known as the National Reconciliation Accord
or Document of National Accord, is one of the many steps undertaken to restore political
normalcy. Authority was restored by electing presidents and reuniting the national army.
Worldwide, programs have been implemented to foster public investments along with
infrastructural, social, and environmental rehabilitations. Numerous studies have aided
the development of policies geared towards peacebuilding. For instance, task forces led
by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations (UN) were created to
address society-building and related objectives. Yet, the state stability remains fragile,
exacerbated by frequent conflicts with neighbouring countries including Israel and Syria.
Alongside peace pacts on political authorities and territories, there must be social,
economic and psychology-based treaties. An important, yet often overlooked, element in
relation to war is subjective well-being. Generally, people who are happy do not initiate
conflict (Yones, 1998). This statement is supported by a recent paper that was published
in the International Journal of Human Sciences. The researchers found that subjective
well-being is a significant predictor of peace attitudes and positive feelings were more
likely observed from harmonious research participants (Sari, & Kermen, 2015).
In 1998, Yones, designed a subjective well-being survey and policy tool that looks into
citizens’ progress of living conditions in relationship to mental and emotional health. The
tool measures positive, neutral, and negative feelings in relation to different dimensions
of basic living conditions and government policies. The survey eliminates ethnic, cultural,
or religious perspectives in order to avoid relative points of views that can skew the results.

4. The focus of data collection is on basic human needs. This tool was used to measure the
subjective well-being of the Lebanese citizens after the civil war; the results reflected that
the citizens were full of mistrust of their government and fellow citizens and they had
high levels of pessimism regarding the future. The paper recommends that governments
should then address stressors before they lead, overtime to tension, anger, hate and
eventually to a socioeconomic crisis that can escalate into a violent conflict. The author
added that most individuals are only concerned with power when it is the key to
socioeconomic growth. When the people in power and their followers believe that the
facilitation of division and fear is more profitable than deal making and compromise, the
noble values are overlooked, paving way for civil or cross-border conflict.
Unfortunately, in recent years, media outlets in the east and the west have been observed
to alarmingly focus on controversial news, perhaps in an attempt to attract more audience.
The media news has global reach and some networks sensationalize by focusing on clash
of civilizations, fear, and divisions. This has led to the rise of extreme right movements
and parties calling for separations, racial tensions and even ethnic cleansing. Some
politicians use pre-war rhetoric such as trade war and negatively paint brushing entire
groups of ethnic or religious people. These tactics are reminiscent of pre-conflict tactics
to gain support, expand power, or inhibit resource-sharing (Yones, 1998).
From a social perspective, the most vulnerable social group to the cost of such media
drumming of division and fear is the children. It is only a matter of time before they
become the fuel or the victims of ensuing conflict. Psychologically, the author of this
paper argues, that before the war, the children were programmed to fear other people
who are not similar to them, thus creating psychological and social dysfunction.
After the war, “The impact on the mental health of the civilian population is one of the
most significant” (Murthy, & Lakshminarayana, 2006, p. 25). Specifically, there is an
observable increase in the diagnoses of mental disorders especially among the women
and children. Many of them presented symptoms of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder
(PTSD), depression, and anxiety. In fact, disability and mortality rates are mostly
attributed to conflict situations.
An interview with Herbert Kelman (Salzinger, 2003), the director of Harvard’s program
on international conflict analysis and resolution specified that the root cause of conflict is
unfulfilled or threatened needs especially psychological ones such as justice, identity, and
security. Hence, one efficient way to harness peace is by encouraging social mobility.
When citizens understand that they can have relatively equitable opportunities to better
their lives, they do not have to resort to violence to fulfil their needs. When individuals
feel that their choices and efforts can significantly affect their lives, they feel happier and

5. as what was aforementioned, happy people are peace-loving ones. Indeed, one vital key
to peace is happiness.
Kelman furthered that there are three major steps to prevent struggles. Initially, a needs
analysis would be ideal in giving each side an opportunity to air their concerns.
Afterwards, a realistic empathy would be helpful in understanding the opposite
perspective. Lastly, having both parties lookat the situation as a joint problemencourages
proactivity. With this process, working trust may beharnessed and “peace”will not remain
as a mere piece of paper but a meaningful transformation of relationships. All in all,
Kelman asserted that the awareness of social-psychological framework is crucial in
attaining peace.
Most societies view democracy as linked to peace as it engenders freedom from coercions
and more liberal milieus. However, a “tyranny of the majority” may arise in divided
societies wherein the most populous groups and the elites manipulate democratic
processes (Byman, 2003). Also, democracy has been surprisingly correlated with
international wars. Thus, the principle, majority rules, may only work when it is ensured
that the majority changes from time to time. Also, power sharing may only emphasize
minority groups since salience is placed on the establishment of each group’s education
and belief systems. Ergo, Byman added that ensuring domestic security with the help of
outside forces and deterring meddling neighbors as well as influencing the elite may be
helpful strategies towards overcoming the challenges of peace.
Furthermore, the lessons fromcivil wars are applicable to cross-border tensions. The usual
root cause of the conflict is power imbalance and the struggle to restore that balance. If
the government fails to facilitate power sharing, the conflict is inevitable. When there is
a disparity of power between two nations and there is also a struggle on natural resources
or economic influence, it is only a matter of time and politicians would volley criticisms.
Thus, conflict is more likely to ensue.
The same applies to the United Nations, if the member states and the leaders of most
powerful countries do not come together to find an international mechanism for power
sharing and conflict resolution, it is not difficult to imagine a third world war. In the past,
US and Russia became allies against Germany. This time the conflict is shaping to be
between the US and Europe against possibly China and Russia. Even if these huge nations
will not engage in direct war, they would most likely engage in proxy wars similar to the
cold war period. This time the weapons would be much bigger, and civilian damages
would be excruciatingly higher.

6. Ergo, international institutions of peace must be empowered to help draft and implement
new policies to promote peaceful conflict resolution and power sharing among nations
and within nations. Alongside current steps to promote social order, the psychology of
war and peace must be adequately lookedinto and utilized in forming the needed policies.
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