In the weeks leading up to the 2016 Summer Olympic Games, a few athletes announced they would forgo the games for fear of contracting the Zika virus in Brazil. There’s a good chance athletes aren’t the only ones avoiding traveling to South America. While Zika presents with very minor symptoms that sometimes go unnoticed in adults, it can lead to microcephaly for infants born from mothers who have contracted it. Read more here: http://www.genre.com/knowledge/blog/

1. Outbreak
Update
Zika Virus
What Insurers
Should Learn

2. The WHO declared the Brazil outbreak
a Public Health Emergency of International
Concern in February 2016.
Some scientists have called for the
cancellation of the Summer Olympics to be
held in August in Rio de Janeiro.
Source: https://rioolympicslater.org

3. Does this mean Zika is
a significant pandemic threat?

4. Zika virus is transmitted
through the bite of an infected
Aedes aegypti mosquito or sex.
Spread through blood transfusion
is a strong possibility.
Source: http://www.cdc.gov/zika/transmission/blood-transfusion.html

5. Large numbers of Zika virus
infections have been reported in Brazil
since May 2015.
cases by December 2015
(number likely underreported due to the
mild nature of clinical symptoms).
Estimates put the total at
500,000 to 1.5 million

6. Zika infection in adults usually causes
short-lasting symptoms associated
with mild fever.
But it can cause Guillain-Barré
syndrome (GBS) – a rare and
serious neurological disorder.
Zika is also a cause of microcephaly
– a devastating developmental
condition in newborns.
Source: http://www.aafp.org/news/health-of-the-public/20160420zikacausal.html

7. 500,000 visitors
are expected in Brazil
for the Summer Olympics.
But calling the Olympics off,
or moving them, is unlikely to
significantly influence the international
spread of Zika.

8. After all, Brazil is only
1 of nearly 40 countries
affected by the current outbreak
in the Americas.
No autochthonous confirmed cases to date
April-June 2016 (7)
January-March 2016 (22)
October-December 2015 (10)
Prior to October 2015 (1)
Countries with confirmed autochthonous
cases of Zika virus
Updated as of July 14, 2016
Source: http://www.paho.org/hq/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=11599&Itemid=41691&lang=en

9. Pregnant women
are advised not to
travel to Brazil.
However, precautions are still being taken.

10. Source: http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/fivering_circus/2016/05/a_history_of_condoms_in_the_olympic_village_from_8_500_in_seoul_to_450_000.html
will be handed out to athletes
in Rio by the International
Olympic Committee –
a record number.
450K
condoms
Rio 2016
100K
condoms
Beijing 2008
150K
condoms
London 2012

11. Yet accidentally transporting home
an infected insect could introduce
Zika to new areas.
Infected travellers could return with Zika in
their blood and pass it on through mosquito
bites or sex.

12. What does this mean for insurers?

13. Although Zika infection is unlikely to cause
long-term disability in adults,
Projections suggest that Zika could lead to
a moderate increase in total disability claims for a
limited period of time in heavily affected areas.
20%
are left severely
disabled.
5%
of those infected
with GBS die
Source: http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMra111452; http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/205189/1/zikasitrep_14Apr2016_eng.pdf

14. Source: http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMra111452; http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/205189/1/zikasitrep_14Apr2016_eng.pdf
The recent rise in microcephaly
is clearly linked to Zika.
Insurers may think it prudent to exclude benefits for
congenital conditions in unborn children.

15. Thankfully,
there are some
signs that the worst
might be over in Brazil.
Epidemiological reports
show a decline in the number
of newly reported cases
(confirmed and not
confirmed) of
microcephaly.
The proportion of confirmed microcephaly cases in the
analysed cases has been declining.
Newly Reported Cases of Microcephaly in Brazil per Calender Week in 2016
Source: Own table based on http://portalsaude.saude.gov.br/index.php/o-ministerio/principal/leia-mais-o-ministerio/197-secretaria-svs/20799-microcefalia
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
W3 W5 W7 W9 W11 W13 W15 W17 W19 W21 W23 W25

16. In many ways, Zika is yet another
test of what could happen in the
event of a sustained viral attack
on global public health.
So it’s about being prepared.

17. © 2016 General Re Corporation | This presentation is intended to provide background information for our clients and professional staff.
It is time sensitive and may need to be revised and updated periodically.
If you are interested in
more information about
how Zika could affect your
business, get in touch.
Tim Eppert
Life/Health
Senior Actuary,
Cologne
+ 49 221 9738 579
tim.eppert@genre.com