GEOGRAPHY IGCSE: POPULATION DYNAMICS. It contains: increase in the world's population, over and under population, anti and pro-natalist policies, China's one child policy, France population strategies, Bristol case study.

1. IGCSE GEOGRAPHY
1. POPULATION DYNAMICS
INCREASE IN THE WORLD’S POPULATION
OVER AND UNDER POPULATION
ANTI AND PRO NATALIST POLICIES
CASE STUDIES
CHINA’ S ONE CHILD POLICY
FRANCE POPULATION STRATEGIES
BRISTOL’S CASE STUDY

2. Define ‘population’, ‘population
growth rate’ and ‘population
explosion’. Define the term
‘carrying capacity’. Introduce the
concept of ‘optimum population’.
Case study of a country which is
over-populated and a country
which is under-populated. Define
key words ’birth rate’, ‘death rate’,
‘natural increase’ and ‘natural
decrease’. Describe and evaluate
two population policies as part of
the case studies above – one ante-
natalist and one pro-natalist.

3. Population pyramids show the structure
of a population by comparing relative
numbers of people in different age
groups.
Population structures differ markedly
between LEDCs and MEDCs.
Demographic transition models show
population change over time - and also
show marked differences between LEDCs
and MEDCs.
At present the world's population is
growing quickly, though this has not
always been the case.

4. Until the 1800s the world's population
grew slowly for thousands of years.
In 1820 the world's population reached
one billion.
In the early 1970s, the world's
population reached three billion.
In 1999, less than 30 years later, the
population doubled to six billion.
The global rate of population growth is
now one billion every 15 years.

5. The graph shows this pattern of
accelerating growth (including
the predicted population for
2025).

6. The three main causes of population
change:
Births - usually measured using the birth
rate (number of live births per 1,000 of
the population per year).
Deaths - usually measured using the
death rate (number of deaths per 1,000
of the population per year).
Migration - the movement of people in
and out of an area.

7. Births and deaths are natural causes of
population change.
The difference between the birth rate
and the death rate of a country or place
is called the natural increase.
The natural increase is calculated by
subtracting the death rate from the birth
rate.
natural increase = birth rate - death rate

8. The rate of natural increase is given as a
percentage, calculated by dividing the
natural increase by 10.
For example, if the birth rate is 14 per
1,000 population, and the death rate is 8
per 1000 population, then the natural
increase = 14 - 8 = 6.
That is 6/1000, which is equal to 0.6%.

9. Rates of population growth vary across the world.
Although the world's total population is rising
rapidly, not all countries are experiencing this
growth.
In the UK, for example, population growth is
slowing, while in Germany the population has
started to decline.
MEDCs have low population growth rates, with low
death rates and low birth rates.
Population will decline if death rate is greater than
birth rate.
Population will increase if death rate is less than
birth rate.

10. Rates of population growth vary across
the world.
Although the world's total population is
rising rapidly, not all countries are
experiencing this growth.
In the UK, for example, population
growth is slowing, while in Germany the
population has started to decline.
MEDCs have low population growth
rates, with low death rates and low birth
rates.

11. Population will decline if death rate is
greater than birth rate.
Population will increase if death rate is
less than birth rate. LEDCs have high
population growth rates.
Both birth rates and death rates in LEDCs
tend to be high.
However, improving healthcare leads to
death rates falling - while birth rates
remain high.

12. The table shows data in selected LEDC and MEDC countries.
The figures are per 1,000 of the population per year.
In Bulgaria, the birth rate is 9/1,000 and death rate is 14/1,000.
As birth rate is less than the death rate, Bulgaria has a
declining population.

13. The table shows data in selected LEDC and MEDC countries.
The figures are per 1,000 of the population per year.
In South Africa, the birth rate is 25/1,000 and death rate is
15/1,000. South Africa has an increasing population with a
population growth rate of 1%.

14. The demographic transition model shows
population change over time.
It studies how birth rate and death rate affect
the total population of a country.

15. 1. Total population is low but it is balanced due
to high birth rates and high death rates.
2. Total population rises as death rates fall due
to improvements in health care and sanitation.
Birth rates remain high.
3. Total population is still rising rapidly. The gap
between birth and death rates narrows due to
the availability of contraception and fewer
children being needed to work - due to the
mechanisation of farming. The natural increase
is high.

16. 4. Total population is high, but it is balanced by
a low birth rate and a low death rate. Birth
control is widely available and there is a desire
for smaller families.
5. Total population is high but going into
decline due to an ageing population. There is a
continued desire for smaller families, with
people opting to have children later in life.

17. As a country passes through the demographic
transition model, the total population rises.
Most LEDCs are at stage 2 or 3 (with a growing
population and a high natural increase).
Most MEDCs are now at stage 4 of the model
and some such as Germany have entered stage
5.

19. As populations move through the stages of the
model, the gap between birth rate and death
rate first widens, then narrows.
In stage 1 the two rates are balanced.
In stage 2 they diverge, as the death rate falls
relative to the birth rate.
In stage 3 they converge again, as the birth rate
falls relative to the death rate.
Finally in stage 4 the death and birth rates are
balanced again but at a much lower level.

20. The model was developed after studying the
experiences of countries in Western Europe and
North America.
Conditions might be different for LEDCs in
different parts of the world.
The original model doesn't take into account the
fact that some countries now have a declining
population and a 5th stage.
Most texts will now show this stage as it is
relevant to an increasing number of MEDCs in
the 21st century.

21. Most LEDCs are experiencing rapid population
growth.
Most LEDCs are in stage 2 or 3 of the
demographic transition model.
This means that they have falling death rates,
due to improving health care, while birth rates
remain high.
The recent history of population management
policies in China illustrates population change
management problems.

22. Limited access to family planning
services and education about
contraception.
Contraception and other methods of
family planning may not be culturally or
religiously acceptable.
Children are a valuable source of labour
and income for a family.
They can work on the land from a young
age and as they get older they can earn
money in other jobs.
Children can help to care for younger
children and elderly family members.

23. High rates of infant mortality (infant
deaths) mean that women need to have
many children in order to ensure that
some survive through to adulthood.
It may be traditional or culturally
important to have a large family.
LEDCs have a high population growth
rate which means that they have many
young dependants.
Governments in LEDCs, international
bodies and charities are working to
reduce birth rates and slow down rates
of population growth.

24. The high birth rate in LEDCs results in a
high proportion of the population under
15.
This youthful population gives a country
specific problems.
The problems include:
• Young children need health care - for
example, immunisations. This is
expensive for a country to provide.
• Young people need to be educated -
providing schools and teachers are
expensive. Resources for lessons are
difficult to access, and costly to buy.
• In the future, more children will reach
child bearing age, putting more
pressure on the health service.

25. In the late 1970s, the Chinese government
introduced a number of measures to reduce the
country's birth rate and slow the population
growth rate.
The most important of the new measures was a
one-child policy, which decreed that couples in
China could only have one child.

26. In 1950 the rate of population change in
China was 1.9% each year.
If this doesn't sound high, consider that a
growth rate of only 3% will cause the
population of a country to double in less
than 24 years!
Previous Chinese governments had
encouraged people to have a lot of children
to increase the country's workforce.
But by the 1970s the government realised
that current rates of population growth
would soon become unsustainable.

28. In 1950 the rate of population change in
China was 1.9% each year.
If this doesn't sound high, consider that a
growth rate of only 3% will cause the
population of a country to double in less
than 24 years!
Previous Chinese governments had
encouraged people to have a lot of children
to increase the country's workforce.
But by the 1970s the government realised
that current rates of population growth
would soon become unsustainable.

29. The one-child policy, established
in 1979, meant that each couple
was allowed just one child.
Benefits included increased access
to education for all, plus childcare
and healthcare offered to families
that followed this rule.

30. Those who had more than one child didn't
receive these benefits and were fined.
The policy was keenly resisted in rural areas,
where it was traditional to have large families.
In urban areas, the policy has been enforced
strictly but remote rural areas have been harder
to control.
Many people claim that some women, who
became pregnant after they had already had a
child, were forced to have an abortion and many
women were forcibly sterilised.
There appears to be evidence to back up these
claims.

31. The birth rate in China has fallen since 1979, and
the rate of population growth is now 0.7%.
There have been negative impacts too - due to a
traditional preference for boys, large numbers of
female babies have ended up homeless or in
orphanages, and in some cases killed.
In 2000, it was reported that 90% of foetuses
aborted in China were female.
As a result, the gender balance of the Chinese
population has become distorted.
Today it is thought that men outnumber women by
more than 60 million.

32. China's one-child policy has been
somewhat relaxed in recent years. Couples
can now apply to have a second child if
their first child is a girl, or if both parents
are themselves only-children.
01
While China's population is now rising
more slowly, it still has a very large total
population (1.3 billion in 2008) and China
faces new problems, including:
•the falling birth rate - leading to a rise in the relative
number of elderly people
•fewer people of working age to support the growing
number of elderly dependants - in the future China
could have an ageing population
02

33. Most MEDCs are experiencing slow rates of
population growth and some are experiencing
population decline.
Most MEDCs are in stage 4 of the demographic
transition model - the population is high, but
not growing.
Some countries have a declining population and
could be said to be entering stage 5.
This means that the birth rate in their country
has fallen below the death rate.
Most MEDCs have a very low rate of natural
increase.

34. The average life expectancy in MEDCs is rising.
This is due to:
• improvements in health care and medicine
• increased leisure and recreation time
• improved knowledge about the importance of
a balanced diet and regular exercise
• improved living standards and quality of life
Birth rates in MEDCs are falling as people choose
to have smaller families later in life.
Contraception is easily available and well
understood.

35. As people live longer, the structure of a
population changes.
Many MEDCs are now experiencing a significant
increase in the number of elderly people as a
proportion of the population.
As birth rates fall and people have smaller
families, the number of young dependants is
falling and the number of elderly dependants is
rising.

36. In the near future this will mean that there are
fewer economically active people to support the
elderly population.
To try to balance out an ageing population,
some countries adopt a pro-natalist policy - that
is, they encourage people to have more children
by offering them benefits, such as access to
childcare and maternity leave.

37. Many areas of Europe have a low
fertility rate because of the
following reasons:
• education - people are more
aware of the availability of
contraception and
consequences an unplanned
pregnancy can have on their
career
• women in careers - women
may choose to follow their
career choice rather than start
a family while young
• later marriages
• state benefits - couples no
longer need children to help
care for them when older

38. France was a country with concerns that
professional women were choosing not to have
children.
The government was worried that the population
was not going to replace itself over time.

39. The policies that were put in place to encourage
three-children families were:
• a cash incentive of £675 monthly (nearly the
minimum wage) for a mother to stay off work for
one year following the birth of her third child
• the 'carte famille nombreuse' (large family card),
giving large reductions on train fares
• income tax based on the more children the less
tax to pay
• three years paid parental leave, which can be used
by mothers or fathers
• government-subsidised daycare for children
under the age of three, and full time school places
for over threes paid for by the government

40. This has resulted in mothers
considering having children and
remaining in work.
The fertility rate in France is one
of Europe's highest.

41. What are the issues?
There are decreasing numbers of economically
active people in the population and more elderly
dependents.
What can be done about it?
People are encouraged to save for their
retirement in pensions and investments.
The retirement age is increasing.
Facilities such as nursing homes and care workers
will be needed, perhaps in preference to schools
and nurseries, as the population gets older.
Economically active skilled and unskilled
migrants could be encouraged.

42. The population structure can vary within
a country.
In England a census is conducted every
10 years to find out more about the
population characteristics.
The results help to show how the
population changes over time and in
different areas.
Councils also collect data.

43. There are areas in England which attract
people in retirement age.
Dorset, Devon and Cornwall are three
areas which attract retirement migrants.
There are more elderly there than the
national average.

44. The population pyramid for the
Torbay area shows this.

45. Bristol's population is made up of 13.9% black
and minority ethnicity residents.
This is similar to the national average of 12.5%.
However the different ethnic groups are not
spread evenly across the city.
Bristol has a large student population. It also
has a higher than average percentage of
qualified residents (35.1% in Bristol compared
to 29.5% nationally).
20.2% of people travel to work on foot or by
bike, whereas the national average is only
12.8%.
The census can therefore tell us a lot about local
population characteristics.

47. ageing population
When the average age of a
population is rising.
census
An official count of the population. It
may hold details such as ethnicity,
occupation and age.
demographic transition model
A measure of population change over
time which tracks birth and death
rates.
fertility rate
The average number of babies born
to each woman.

48. MEDC
A more economically developed
country (MEDC) has high level of
development based on economic
indicators such as gross domestic
product (the country's income).
natural increase
The natural growth of a population
due to the number of births
exceeding deaths.
pro-natalist
Countries are described as pro-
natalist if they adopt policies which
encourage people to have children.