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Climate Change and Agriculture: Impacts and costs of adaptation
1. Climate Change and Agriculture
Impacts and costs of adaptation
Gerald C. Nelson
Senior Research Fellow
Environment and Production Technology Division
5 October 2009
2. Acknowledgements
The IFPRI authors
• Gerald C. Nelson, Mark W. Rosegrant, Jawoo Koo, Richard
Robertson, Timothy Sulser, Tingju Zhu, Claudia Ringler,
Siwa Msangi, Amanda Palazzo, Miroslav Batka, Marilia
Magalhaes, Rowena Valmonte-Santos, Mandy Ewing, and
David Lee
Thanks also to
• Ken Strzepek and Adam Schlosser of MIT for downscaled
climate scenarios
• Urvashi Narain, Sergio Margulis, Bob Schneider, and other
members of the EACC global study report of the World Bank
• ADB staff and reviewers for valuable comments and insights
on the ADB report
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3. Preview of Results
Unchecked climate change will result in a 20 percent
increase in malnourished children by 2050
Agricultural productivity expenditures of over $7 Billion
per year are needed to compensate
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6. Location-specific Biological and
Socioeconomic Modeling is Critical
Climate change brings location-specific changes
• in precipitation, temperature and variability to
• local agronomic and market conditions
Modeling challenge – To reconcile
• limited resolution of macro-level economic models with
• crop model detail
Result
• More realistic modeling of climate change effects
(biological and economic) on global/regional agriculture
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7. Global Change Model Components
Two GCM climate scenarios to show variability
• NCAR (wetter) and CSIRO (drier)
DSSAT crop model
• to estimate biological effects
ISPAM data
• to show where to estimate effects
IMPACT2009
• To integrate biological effects from crop and hydrology
results with detailed economic model
16. Climate change reduces average yields
Crop/ Sub Saharan East Asia and South Asia
management Africa Pacific
system
Irrigated rice
NCAR -14.1 -19.8 -15.5
CSIRO -11.4 -13.0 -17.5
Rainfed maize
NCAR -4.6 1.5 -7.8
CSIRO -2.4 -3.9 -2.9
Rainfed wheat
NCAR -21.9 -14.8 -44.4
CSIRO -19.3 -16.1 -43.7
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24. FOOD SUPPLY, DEMAND AND
TRADE RESULTS
IMPACT2009
Biophysical effects from crop and hydrology models and
economic effects from global agriculture model
25. Climate Change Makes Food Price
Increases Greater
Greater price
2000 2050 No climate change 2050 CSIRO NoCF 2050 NCAR NoCF
increases with
450 Prices increasechange
climate
400 without climate
Dollars Per Metric Ton
350 change
300
250
200
150
100
50
-
Rice Wheat Maize Soybeans
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29. Cereal Trade Flows
Note that CSIRO results
in more exports from
developed countries
… and therefore more
imports into
developing countries
Note change in
direction for the
different scenarios
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30. Climate Change Increases Childhood
Malnutrition
80
2000 2050 No CC 2050 with CC
70 Without climate change, child
60 malnutrition falls except in
With climate change, child
Millions of Children
Sub Saharan Africa
50 malnutrition increases
everywhere
40
30
20
10
-
South Asia East Asia and Europe and Latin America Middle East Sub Saharan
Pacific Central Asia and and North Africa
Caribbean Africa
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32. Our Definition of Agricultural Adaptation
Agricultural investments that reduce child malnutrition
with climate change to the level with no climate
change
What types of investments are considered?
• Agricultural research
• Irrigation expansion and efficiency improvements
• Rural roads
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33. Adaptation Costs are over $7 billion
Required additional annual expenditure
• Wetter NCAR scenario = US$7.1 billion
• Drier CSIRO scenario = US$7.3 billion
Regional level
• Sub-Saharan Africa - $3 billion (40% of the total), mainly
for rural roads
• South Asia - US$1.5 billion, research and irrigation
efficiency
• Latin America and Caribbean - US$1.2 billion per year,
research
• East Asia and the Pacific - $1 billion per year, research
and irrigation efficiency
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35. Conclusions
Climate change will have negative impacts
• Lower yields
• Higher prices
• More malnourished children
• Changes in trade flows reduce the negative effects
Agriculture is critical for
• Poverty reduction
• Economic development and
• Food security
Large additional expenditures should start now to
reduce the adverse impacts of climate change
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36. Policy and Program Recommendations
Design and implement good overall development
policies and programs
Recognize that enhanced food security and climate-
change adaptation go hand in hand
At least $7 billion per year in additional productivity
investments are needed just for climate change
adaptation in developing countries
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37. Think and Act Globally and Locally
Global public goods are needed
• Improve global data collection, dissemination, and analysis
• Make agricultural adaptation a key agenda point within the
international climate negotiation process
• Complete the Doha Round
• Expand international agricultural research
National public goods are needed
• Reinvigorate national research and extension programs
• Build supporting national infrastructure – roads, etc.
• Provide supportive policy environment
Local public goods are needed
• Support community-based adaptation strategies
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