2009/2010 Most Recent Forecast

1. Brazilian Business Perspec/ve
2009/2010
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2. Agenda
World Crisis Form
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Consequences for Brazil
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Brazilian Macroeconomic Overview
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Main Impacts by Sector
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Conclusions
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RecommendaJons
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3. WORLD CRISIS FORM
About a year ago the RBS‐Royal Bank of Scotland paid US$ 100 billions to acquire
•
ABN Amro, last December, the bank could have boughten:
 Ci/bank US$ 22,5 billions
 Morgan Stanley US$ 10,5 billions
 Goldman Sachs US$ 21 billions
 Merrill Lynch US$ 12,3 billions
 Deutsche Bank US$ 13 billions
 Barclays US$ 12,7 billions
And would have a change of US$ 8 billions, to buy GM, Ford, Chrysler, and the
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Honda F1 racing team.
Source: Octávio de Barros/Bradesco
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4. Consequences for Brazil
Lower asset value, reducJon on credit/investments
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Lower commodity prices impacJng currency
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Lower growth in 2009/10 (recession? How long will take to recover?)
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Severe impact on exporters,agriculture,mining&metals,aviaJon
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WhAT’S working?,consumer goods,automobile,energy,telecom,BANKING
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Government:
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posiJve: lower interest rate, infrastructure (PAC), more expending, sJmulus‐
housing and automobile, sJmulus for credit official Banks, inflaJon?
negaJve: bad expending, worst fiscal results, lower trade balance, inflaJon?
HOW to transform Crisis into Opportunity ?
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5. Macroeconomic Overview Source: Tendências/Bradesco
BRASIL 2009
2007 2008
InflaJon (IPCA) 4,46% 6,19% 4,30%
GDP 5,42% 5,05% ‐ 0,5%
Currency R$/US$ 1,78 2,38 2,00
Interest Rate(Selic) 11,25% 13,75% 8,75%
Trade Balance 40 Billions 24 Billions 15 Billions
Surplus
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6. Financial Impact
• Currency: reverse correlaJon between CRB and currency 2009.
( 240 points of Commodity Research Bureau Index is equivalent to an
average of R$ 2,30/US$, source Bradesco )
• Capital: credit ?, investment‐longer ROI,
Cash is King.
• Financing: private‐equity, BNDES/Public Banks,
IPO’s (selecJve/2*semester), M&A, suppliers.
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7. Companies Impact
Lower Growth in 2009‐2010
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Cost Increase, difficult to raise prices: R$/US$
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ReducJon: expense/headcount/InvesJment
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SELECTIVE gain of share, Internet potenJal
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Opportunity: ProducJon in Brazil, “low end”
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Government Segment with high demand.
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8. Conclusion
2009/2010: CHALLENGE YEARS
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Growth in Brazil – Low End Products.
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Debt MUST be reduced.
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SelecJve Growth Investment Strategy.
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Possible: revalued R$ 2* semester.
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Market Growth for capitalized companies.
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9. Recomenda/ons
• Pragma/sm
• External Focus: Partnerships
Help your Customer: New Products/Services
• Internal Focus: Management
ProducJvity, execute the“simple and difficult”
• Discuss Regulatory Standards
• Resilience
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10. THANK YOU !
Geraldo Barbosa
Direct Line/Fax: + 55‐11 5572‐0291
Cellular Phone: + 55‐11 9448‐8630
geraldobarbosa@me.com
h0p://www.linkedin.com/in/geraldobarbosa
My Blog: hpp://geraldobarbosa01.wordpress.com
Skype me at: geraldobarbosa01
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