Glen Hiemstra keynote to the annual DHL energy customer conference in Houston, Texas. October 2016.

1. glen hiemstra

2. …rather than a search for a truly
new future
most planning is a search for
a more efficient past...
Glen Hiemstra
DISRUPTION

3. $92
$28
$46?
energy future
These are “epic times in
the oil market,”
said Matt Smith, director of commodity
research at ClipperData in 2015

4. “As we have written for
some time, we expect all
car companies would
eventually see nearly 100
percent of their revenues
shift from the sale of
human-driven/
individually-owned cars to
robot-driven/shared cars.”
- Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley,
Aug. 17, 2015
- www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/tesla-uber-
rival_55d1e72fe4b0ab468d9db3fd

5. science fiction arriving

6. New York 1900 New York 1920

7. what is your image of the future?
probable?
possible?
preferred?

8. not a mystery

9. social driving forces...
❏ U.S. middle class squeeze - global growth
❏ millennials come of age, 75% of workforce in 2025
❏ intelligence in everything
❏ power of connectivity
❏ regulation and cheaper renewable energy

10. key driving technologies...
❏ energy efficiency
❏ demand side management
❏ smart grids and cities
❏ convergence of IT and distribution
❏ falling solar prices

11. • STEEP
• society & demographics
• technology & science
• economy & markets
• environment & energy
• politics, regulation &
government

12. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
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2037
2038
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2041
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2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Population(billions)
Year
Population Growth
Less Developed Regions
More Developed Regions
2010 2030 2050

13. people of the screen...
will not accept old limitations

14. world population growth, by age, to 2050
Percent
Under 15
15-64
Over 65
0 50 100 150 200
Photo http://blogs.ft.com/photo-diary/2013/10/older-persons-day/

15. loving cities

16. nano | bio | info | cogno | robo | space
3D | connectivity | convergence

17. internet of everything
In the next 20 years PC’s will be replaced by
millions of tiny intelligent systems embedded in
our clothes, jewelry, cars, furniture, and walls.
They will recognize voice commands and carry
out simple wishes. They will cost less than a
penny, less than scrap paper, so companies which
do not put chips [intelligence] in all their
products will be at a severe disadvantage.
Michio Kaku, 1998

18. what is internet of everything?
platform for devices to communicate with the world around
them and to integrate human, natural and built worlds

19. when things are smart

20. http://www.districtoffuture.eu/uploads/imagenes/imagenes_meetinpoint_smart-city_2b637ab6.jpg
smart city

21. when things are smart
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3659201/Rolls-Royce-reveals-remote-controlled-roboship-augmented-reality-central-control-deck-hundreds-miles-away-sea-2020.html

22. when things are smart

23. phonosapiens
33 per 100
2005
97 per 100
2015

24. more connection =
more innovation
more inventions
more opportunity

25. Ideas Multiply Resource Access

26. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1972 2002 2011 2030 (projected)
Barrels of Oil Per Person Per Year
Barrels of Oil Per Person Per Year
Colfert

27. disintermediation, disruption
displacement

28. $62 Billion $20 BillionUBER
what can be shared will be shared

29. environmental imperative

30. how will we power a
smart future?

31. Cost of Solar Power$77.00
$0.36
200 x Price Decline
Grid parity

32. “Renewables are now…..deflationary
to energy prices.” - UBS

33. LOWER COST HIGHER DENSITY
BATTERY PRICE (10x decline)
ENERGY STORED PER GRAM (3x)

34. Solar City Giga Factory, Buffalo NY 2017

35. cost trends plus technology plus
environment issues plus optimizing
resources suggest continued energy
turbulence, transitions…
requiring great resilience and continuous
examination of your mission and
business models and lean operations in
the coming years

36. what is your image of the future?

37. the future is not
something that just
happens to us
the future is
something we do

38. www.futurist.com
glen@futurist.com
twitter.com/glenhiemstra
linkedin.com/glenhiemstra
thank you for your time
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