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Horwath HTL Global Hotel Market Sentiment Survey March 2014
Asia
31.4%
Europe
49.8%
Americas
18.5%
0.3%
GLOBAL INDEX SCORE JANUARY
2010 – JANUARY 2014
INTRODUCTION
The Horwath HTL Global Hotel Market Sentiment
Survey gives a quick assessment of the market
outlook for the global hotel industry, by the people
on the ground, running the hotels. The survey focuses
on the current outlook for occupancy, average room
rates and total revenue and what the operators feel is
going to happen based on their experience.
This report summarizes the outcome of the survey,
gathered from 40 countries. Of the 1,474
respondents, 49.8 percent of them came from
Europe, 31.4 percent from Asia and 18.5 percent
from the Americas. It should be noted throughout the
study that data from the Middle East and Africa is
skewed by limited number of responses. Commentary
focuses on countries and regions with at least 20
respondents.
Since February 2011, global sentiment has been
volatile, with January 2011 marking the peak of
optimism since July 2009. For the beginning of this
year, hoteliers’ expectations are higher than the same
point in 2013 and 2012; however, this is no
guarantee of future performance, given the historical
fluctuation of sentiment.
SHARE OF RESPONDENTS
MEA
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Horwath HTL Global Hotel Market Sentiment Survey March 2014
SENTIMENT RANKINGS
BY REGION SCORE
FEB JUL JAN
2013 2013 2014
50 20 40The Americas
Asia 14 1 17
Europe 5 0 25
MEA 59 44 NA
Global
Average
15 5 25
TOP 5 COUNTRIES
WITH MORE THAN
20 RESPONSES SCORE
FEB
2013
JUL
2013
JAN
2014
1. Malaysia 43 46 65
2. Ireland 42 33 62
3. Poland -23 29 59
4. Japan 38 40 52
5. Hungary 15 -- 48
“The global sentiment is more
positive than it has been in
the last 12 months.”
RANKING SCORE KEY
Much Worse -150.0
Worse -75.0
Same 0
Better 75.0
Much Better 150.0
SENTIMENT RANKINGS
As a way to measure and compare the results across
regions and countries, we have created an index to
formulate an overall average sentiment score from all
survey questions. Points are assigned to each
corresponding response and compounded
accordingly. The index utilizes a scale of negative 150
to positive 150 in which a score of negative 150
denotes a sentiment of absolute pessimism; a zero
score indicates unchanged expectations from the
previous year, and positive 150 signifies a very
optimistic outlook. The index also allows us to track
changes in market sentiment over time.
The global sentiment is more positive than it has
been in the last 12 months. Hoteliers had their
doubts about performance in the second half of 2013
when compared to the beginning of the same year,
but they are looking up as 2014 begins. 2011, 2012
and 2013 have all shown a similar pattern of higher
scores in the beginning of the year than the middle,
however.
Europe and The Americas have showed the most
positive growth since 2013, increasing their overall
index by 25 and 20 respectively. Across both regions,
only France and Macedonia reported a negative
outlook for 2014. Among countries with more than
30 respondents, only France and China expressed an
overall negative sentiment.
The strongest performance in Asia is anticipated by
Malaysia (65), Japan (52) and Indonesia (41). In
2014, Tourism Malaysia is increasing its promotional
efforts for Visit Malaysia Year, possibly leading to such
an optimistic outlook for the country.
Political unrest and violent public protests in Thailand,
one of the biggest markets, has deterred foreign
arrivals and perhaps led to the optimistic outlook for
neighbouring Indonesia.
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Horwath HTL Global Hotel Market Sentiment Survey March 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Occ ARR Rev
Much Better
Better
Same
Worse
Much Worse
“Respondents have indicated
expectations of growth across
all three metrics in 2014”
EXPECTATION FOR 2014
Avg Occ ARR Rev
36 26 42 39
11 7 10 16
24 24 21 29
The Americas
Asia
Europe Global
Average 19 22 27
2014 MARKET OUTLOOK
WHAT IS YOUR ASSESSMENT OF THE HOTEL
MARKET FOR 2014 VS. 2013?
Hoteliers were asked their expectation
for performance levels in 2014 compared to that
recorded in 2013, in relation to hotel occupancy
(Occ), average room rate (ARR) and hotel revenues.
Approximately 45 percent of respondents predicted
that occupancy would increase in 2014. Industry
outlook for ARR was even stronger, and revenue
growth predictions were stronger still. The overall
global outlook for 2014 seems very positive.
OCCUPANCY
Only 22 percent of respondents expressed negative
sentiments regarding occupancy performance for the
coming year. Occupancy outlook in Asia was the
lowest, with an index of only 7. Asia’s index was
heavily effected by China’s response. This year, 46
percent of Asian responses came from China. All
other regions recorded index scores above 20.
AVERAGE ROOM RATE
Almost half of all respondents had a positive outlook
in regard to rate growth for 2014. The Americas are
expecting to grow the most, driven by countries such
as the United States (51) and Mexico (42). Again,
Asia had the poorest outlook for 2014 with an index
of 10, as a result of China’s index (-27).
REVENUES
Of the three metrics, revenue is expected to see the
most growth. Over 55 percent of respondents
expect revenues to increase in 2014 when compared
to 2013. The Americas and Europe are hoping for the
greatest increase in revenues, as the two regions
come out of an economic crisis and continue to
recover. Ireland (73), Poland (68) and Belgium (55)
have the strongest revenue predictions in 2014.
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Horwath HTL Global Hotel Market Sentiment Survey March 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Occ ARR Rev
+10% to +15%
+5% to +10%
0% to +5%
0%
0% to -5%
-5% to -10%
-10% to -15%
“Like occupancy, a majority of
hoteliers expect rates to grow
in 2014, with almost 20
percent expecting growth of
over five percent.”
EXPECTATION FOR 2014
Avg Occ ARR Rev
43 32 49 50
23 20 19 29
25 24 21 30
The Americas
Asia
Europe
Global Average 24 25 33
HOTEL PERFORMANCE EXPECTATION
WHAT IS YOUR EXPECTATION FOR
GROWTH/DECLINE FOR 2014 VS. 2013?
The second survey question asked hoteliers to give
their expectation of how their respective hotels
will fare in 2014 in comparison to 2013, in
percentage terms.
OCCUPANCY
Occupancy projections were positive across the
board, with over 60 percent of respondents expecting
growth in some degree. What negativity there was
came from France (-25) and Thailand (-20). Economic
woes could continue to impact the outlook for
France, while political instability in Thailand has
crushed hoteliers’ hopes for occupancy growth going
into 2014.
AVERAGE ROOM RATE
Like occupancy, a majority of hoteliers expect rates to
grow in 2014, with almost 20 percent expecting
growth of over five percent. The outlook for The
Americas is the most positive, driven by the
sentiments of The United States (53) and Brazil (49).
In Asia, China’s index of -13 once again dragged
down the average index. Many other countries, such
as Indonesia (56) and Japan (54) were far more
optimistic.
REVENUES
Over 65 percent of respondents believe that their
revenues will grow in 2014. Almost a quarter of
hoteliers expect growth between 5 and 15 percent.
The Americas have once again topped the sentiment
score driven by a combination of The United States’
economy recovering and the growth in South and
Central American destinations. Revenue growth in
Asia and Europe is predicted to be similar.
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Horwath HTL Global Hotel Market Sentiment Survey March 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7
Very Positive Impact
Positive Impact
No Impact Negative
Impact Very
Negative Impact
“Economic tourism trends are
believed to have the strongest
positive impact on the global
hotel market in 2014.”
FACTORS AFFECTING
PERFORMANCE RANKING
1. Local/Global Stock Market 3
2. Local Economic Trends 28
3. Global Economic Growth Trends 29
4. Local Tourism Trends 37
5. New Competitive Supply -30
6. Global Oil Prices -20
7. Currency Exchange Rates -5
FACTORS AFFECTING PERFORMANCE
WHAT IS YOUR ASSESSMENT OF THE HOTEL
MARKET FOR 2014 VS. 2013?
Each hotelier was also asked to gauge their attitude
towards eight factors and how these will impact their
hotels’ performance in 2014.
1. Local/global stock market
2. Local economic growth trends
3. Global economic growth trends
4. Local tourism trends
5. New competitive supply additions
6. Global oil prices
7. Currency exchange rates
Economic growth and tourism trends are believed to
have the strongest positive impact on the global hotel
market in 2014. Over 50 percent of all responding
hoteliers agreed that these trends would have some
kind of positive effect on their business.
Local tourism trends were seen as having the
strongest positive impact on the global hotel market
for 2014. This was especially evident in The Americas
where hoteliers recorded an index of 45. In Europe,
respondents indicated that global economic trends
were likely to play an equally powerful role in
improving performance.
The strongest negative effects are expected to come
from new competitive supply and oil prices. Growth in
supply has historically been the single lowest index
score in this section of the survey and is the strongest
negative influence on performance in each individual
region.
Our respondents see currency exchange rates and
stock market performance as having the least affect
on the hotel industry.
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Horwath HTL Global Hotel Market Sentiment Survey March 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Corporate Leisure FIT Leisure Group MICE
Much Better
Better
Same
Worse
Much Worse
“Globally, the Leisure FIT
segment is expected to fair
the best, while MICE
demand is seen as having
the least potential for
growth.”
MARKET SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
1. Leisure FIT 28
2. Corporate 16
3. MICE 5
4. Leisure Group 10
MARKET SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
HOW ARE EACH OF THE MAJOR DEMAND
SEGMENTS EXPECTED TO PERFORM IN
2014 VS. 2013?
The last question dealt with each participant’s opinion
with regard to primary market demand segments,
which are Corporate, Leisure FIT, Leisure Group and
MICE (Meetings, Incentive, Conference, and
Exhibition), and how they are expected to perform in
2014.
Globally, the Leisure FIT segment is expected to fare
the best, while MICE demand is seen as having the
least potential for growth.
Almost 50 percent of respondents expect the Leisure
FIT segment to do better or much better in the coming
year. The Americas have the strongest expectations
(30) with Europe (29) and Asia (26) not far behind.
MICE demand was given the lowest index score in
each major region: Asia (-8), Europe (9), the Americas
(14). 25 percent of hoteliers across the world expect
performance from the MICE segment to decrease in
2014. China’s expectations for MICE demand are very
negative as a result of reduced government spending
policies. Government agencies have drastically reduced
their expenditures for external meetings, events and
banquets, cutting into the country’s MICE demand.
The Americas are the only region that expects Leisure
Group business (24) to grow faster than the Corporate
segment (21), although not by much. However,
performance in both segments is expected to increase
more in the Americas than in any other region.
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Horwath HTL Global Hotel Market Sentiment Survey March 2014
OTHER MARKET SENTIMENT REPORTS
BY REGION
ASEAN
Benelux
South East Europe
Asia South East
BY COUNTRY
Austria
Brazil
China
Hungary
Indonesia
Italy
Ireland
Japan
Norway
Switzerland
BY CITY/DESTINATION
Beijing
Hong Kong
Shanghai
CONCLUSION
Encouragingly general market
sentiment is positive across
the world.
Outloo has improved since the middle of and
is better than the same time in and . As
global and local economies and tourism trends
continue to change, most hoteliers remain optimistic
about the performance and health of our industry.
We should not overloo the pattern of volatility in
the surveys themselves. Sentiments tend to dip mid
year and improve again as a new year starts.
However, the global inde has not been negative
since uly of , so there would appear to be an
overall positive trend.
Asia s sentiments were the lowest of the major
regions as a result of pessimistic growth
e pectations for Occupancy, ARR and Revenue.
China registered an inde of possibly due to
slowing economic growth partly caused by reduced
government spending and massive influ es of supply.
Thailand averaged an inde of , li ely because of
continued political unrest.
In contrast, the Americas seem the most optimistic
. The combination of a recovering economy in
the United States and the rapidly growing hospitality
industry in Central and South America have led to
such a positive outloo .
One massively complicating factor is the recent series
of events in the U raine and the Crimea, which could
have a huge affect on the EMEA region if a diplomatic
solution is not found imminently.
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Horwath HTL Global Hotel Market Sentiment Survey March 2014
ASIA PACIFIC
AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND
auckland@horwathhtl.com
Bangkok, Thailand
ishweder@horwathhtl.com
BEIJING, CHINA
beijing@horwathhtl.com
HONG KONG, SAR
hongkong@horwathhtl.com
JAKARTA, INDONESIA
jakarta@horwathhtl.com
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA
kl@horwathhtl.com
MUMBAI, INDIA
vthacker@horwathhtl.com
SHANGHAI, CHINA
shanghai@horwathhtl.com
SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE
singapore@horwathhtl.com
SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA
jsmith@horwathhtl.com.au
TOKYO, JAPAN
tokyo@horwathhtl.com
AFRICA
CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA
capetown@horwathhtl.com
LATIN AMERICA
BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA
cspinelli@horwathhtl.com
SÃO PAULO, BRAZIL
mcarrizo@horwathhtl.com
MEXICO CITY, MEXICO
mjgutierrez@horwathhtl.com
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
sotero.peralta@crowehorwath.com.do
SANTIAGO, CHILE
cspinelli@horwathhtl.com
BOGOTA, COLOMBIA
mjgutierrez@horwathhtl.com
EUROPE
AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
info@horwathhtl.com
ANDORRA LA VELLA, ANDORRA
vmarti@horwathhtl.com
BARCELONA, SPAIN
vmarti@horwathhtl.com
BUDAPEST, HUNGARY
mgomola@horwathhtl.com
DUBLIN, IRELAND
ireland@horwaththl.com
FRANKFURT, GERMANY
rknospe@horwathtl.com
ISTANBUL, TURKEY
merdogdu@horwathhtl.com
LISBON, PORTUGAL
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LONDON, UK
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MADRID, SPAIN
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MOSCOW, RUSSIA
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OSLO, NORWAY
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PARIS, FRANCE
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ROME, ITALY
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SALZBURG, AUSTRIA
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WARSAW, POLAND
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ZAGREB, CROATIA
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ZUG, SWITZERLAND
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ATLANTA, USA
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