5. Passing “peak water”
• seven of the nine study watersheds have crossed a critical transition,
and now exhibit decreasing dry season discharge.
•La Balsa is undergoing a decline in dry season flow that probably
began during the 1970s.
7. Vulnerability Summary Findings
• Perceptions-households that
noted climate change is taking
place; detailed descriptions of
effects
– Llanganuco-98% +/- 2% (95%)
– Quilcayhuanca-94% +/-4% (95%)
– Querococha-100% +/-2% (95%)
8. Vulnerability Summary Findings
• Households preoccupied by
recent climate changes taking
place in region
– Llanganuco-92% +/- 3% (95%)
– Quilcayhuanca-84% +/-6% (95%)
– Querococha-91% +/-4% (95%)
9. Vulnerabilities-Increasing Weather Extremes
• Quer-95%; Quilcay-91%
– Respondents indicating that
significant and often extreme shifts
in temperature variation,
precipitation patterns and seasonal
change have been occurring with
greater frequency and intensity
10.
11. Vulnerabilities-Shifting Water Variability
• Quer-93%; Quilcay-81%
– Respondents indicating that over the
course of the past 10 years (ranging
from 3-10 years) water supplies have
been decreasing during the dry season
12. Mulitiple Vectors of Vulnerability
• Households reporting negative
changes in their lives due to
recent climate change
– Llanganuco-72% +/- 6% (95%)
– Quilcayhuanca-88% +/-5% (95%)
– Querococha-94% +/-4% (95%)
More Details
Bury et al, 2011, Climatic Change
Mark et al, 2010, Annals
13. Vulnerability and Glacial Hazards Risks
• One of the Highest
Concentrations of Glacier
related Disasters in the World
– Avalanches
– Glacial Lake Outburst Floods
(GLOFS)
14. New Resource Struggles
Quilcayhuanca
• From Quantifying Changes in Declining
Water Resources to H20
Evaluating Water Use and
Struggles
– Spatial Rescaling of Access
and Institutions Local communities
– Governance struggles (grazing
lands, irrigation, potable water)
– Scarcity struggles (declining
water, productive land)
Huaraz Potable water
OSU LIDAR
15. Urban Potable Water Consumption by EPS
Chavin (Huaraz and Caraz) and Chavimochic (Trujillo)
Huaraz: 3.2 million m3 in 1999
4.8 million m3 in 2010
Caraz: 502,000 m3 in 1999
896,000 m3 in 2010
Trujillo: 0% pre-1980s
70% of city’s potable water from Santa River in 2010
16. Hydroelectricity and Santa River Water Use
Cañón del Pato Management
1943-1972 Corporación del Santa
1972-1996 Electroperú
1996- Egenor/Duke Energy
Cañón del Pato Megawatts
pre-1958 0
1958 50
1967 100
1982 150
2001 263
•Santa River water use at Cañón del Pato increased from 45 m3/sec to 79 m3/sec
in 1999
•* 12 other Santa River watershed hydroelectric stations built since the 1950s
17.
18. Coastal Irrigation along Lower Santa River
Year Hectares Irrigated
1958 7,500
2004 144,000 (Chavimochic); 30,000 (Chinecas)
19. The Arid Coastal Shelf of Peru
Regional
• Hydraulic
interdependence
across the Andean
escarpment
– Only 2% of all the water
Coastal
Agriculture
resources in the country
And are available for the arid
Populations
Are coast
Extremely
Dependent – Water is primarily
On
Glacial Water
available in rivers that are
fed by glaciers in the dry
season
20.
21. The Chavimochic “Miracle”
• 1985-2011-$1.2 billion
• 144,000 ha improved land
• Will deliver 4 m3/s to Trujillo
• New hydropower
• Phase III Financing Issues
– Chinese will lend ~$300m of “key
financing”
– President issued “Supreme
Decree” in 2008 to eliminate any
barriers
22. Summary
• Glacier surface area has dramatically decreased, upwards of
86% in individual glaciers, while volume changes have
surpassed amounts predicted from empirical formula (by 2-
12 times).
• Such enhanced surface deflation bespeaks a more profound
volume loss than previously suspected.
• Glacier-fed discharge has peaked glacierized streams
• Increasing impacts to resource-dependent household
livelihoods along multiple vectors of vulnerability
23. Political Economies of Contention
• Glacier recession and climate change have
either created or influenced widespread
environmental and social change in the region
• The political-economies of these tensions are
not “future” concerns, they are already
underway
24. http://bprc.osu.edu/glacierchange
Related publications
Baraer, M., J.M. McKenzie, B.G. Mark and S. Knox (2009). Characterizing contributions of glacier melt
and ground water during the dry season in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Advances in Geosciences
22, 41-49.
Bury, J., A. French, J. McKenzie, and B. Mark (2008). Adapting to Uncertain Futures: A Report on New
Glacier Recession and Livelihood Vulnerability Research in the Peruvian Andes. Mountain
Research and Development, 28(3/4): 332-333.
Bury, J., B.G. Mark, J. McKenzie, A. French, M. Baraer, K.I. Huh, M. Zapata and J. Gomez (2010).
Glacier recession and human vulnerability in the Yanamarey watershed of the Cordillera Blanca,
Peru. Climatic Change, forthcoming.
Fortner, S., B.G. Mark, J.M. McKenzie, J. Bury, A. Trierweiler, M. Baraer, and L. Munk (2010). Elevated
stream trace and minor element concentrations in a tropical proglacial stream. Applied
Geochemistry, forthcoming.
Mark, B.G. and J.M. McKenzie (2007). Tracing increasing tropical Andean glacier melt with stable
isotopes in water. Environmental Science and Technology 40 (20), 6955-6960.
Mark, B.G., J. Bury, J.M. McKenzie, A. French and M. Baraer (2010). Climate Change and Tropical
Andean Glacier Recession: Evaluating Hydrologic Changes and Livelihood Vulnerability in the
Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, forthcoming.