SlideShare una empresa de Scribd logo
1 de 53
Descargar para leer sin conexión
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Problem Solving and Research Methodology
Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014
Lecture Notes: Excerpts and Summary of References- Part I: Risk Engineering
1. 13.01.14
People who don’t take risks generally make about two big mistakes a year.
People who do take risks generally make about two big mistakes a year.
—Peter Drucker
Risk by Michelle Mckee
There are no guarantees
Life throws things at you
You can catch or miss them
But they will come, ready or not
I always looked for the real thing
Never trusting in the possibility
Risk-taking not my forte
Staying safe at all costs
Even playing it safe is not certain
Safe has hurt me
Zero risk gets zero gain
Sometimes playing it safe costs you more
It has me,
In not fighting the battle
you may lose the war
In not believing in a dream
You may never sleep peacefully again
So let go of the fear
Reach out for the flame
So what if you get burned
Better that then numb for life
Better to remember passion and joy
Along with the pain and tears
Then to have no memories worth
Remembering
So to hell with safe
I am going to gamble and bet
Until I win back everything I lost
And my life is what it was meant to be
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Take Risks by William Arthur Ward
To laugh is to risk appearing the fool
To weep is to risk being called sentimental
To reach out to another is to risk involvement
To expose feelings is to risk showing your true self
To place your ideas and your dreams before the crowd is to risk being called naïve
To love is to risk not being loved in return
To live is to risk dying
To hope is to risk despair and,
To try is to risk failure
But risks must be taken
The greatest risk in life is to risk nothing
The person who risks nothing... does nothing, has nothing, and becomes nothing
He may avoid suffering and sorrow
But he simply cannot learn and feel and change and grow and love and live
Chained by his servitude, he is a slave
He has forfeited his freedom
Only the person who risks is truly free.
Problem Solving: Some Selected Pearls of Wisdom
1. Problem is a situation for which there isn’t an evident solution.-- Pérez et al.
2. Leaders are problem solvers by talent and temperament, and by choice.-- Harlan Cleveland
3. Creating something is all about problem-solving.--Philip Seymour Hoffman
4. The problems of the world cannot possibly be solved by skeptics or cynics whose horizons are
limited by obvious realities. We need men and women who can dream of things that never
were. - John F. Kennedy
5. We only think when we are confronted with problems. - John Dewey
6. No problem can withstand the assault of sustained thinking. – Voltaire
7. The problem is not that there are problems. The problem is expecting otherwise and thinking
that having problems is a problem. — Theodore Rubin
8. The most serious mistakes are not being made as a result of wrong answers. The truly
dangerous thing is asking the wrong questions. — Peter Drucker
9. If you only have a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail.---Abraham Maslow
10. The biggest problem in the world could have been solved when it was small. - Witter Bynner
11. Erroneous assumptions can be disastrous. — Peter Drucker
12. Drowning problems in an ocean of information is not the same as solving them. - Ray E.
Brown
13. The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at
when we created them –Einstein
14. It's not that I'm so smart; it's just that I stay with problems longer. –Einstein
15. If I had an hour to solve a problem I'd spend 55 minutes thinking about the problem and
5 minutes thinking about solutions.― Einstein
16. The formulation of the problem is often more essential than its solution, which may be merely
a matter of mathematical or experimental skill.― Einstein
17. Every problem has in it the seeds of its own solution. If you don't have any problems, you don't
get any seeds. - Norman Vincent Peale
18. Few can really understand the problem, the answer will come out of it, because the
answer is not separate from the problem.--Krishnamurti
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
19. The only difference between a problem and a solution is that people understand the solution. -
Dorothea Brande
20. When a problem comes along, study it until you are completely knowledgeable. Then find that
weak spot, break the problem apart, and the rest will be easy. - Norman Vincent Peale
21. A problem clearly stated is a problem half solved. - Dorothea Brande
22. To solve any problem, here are three questions to ask yourself: First, what could I do? Second,
what could I read? And third, who could I ask? - Jim Rohn
23. If you do not ask the right questions, you do not get the right answers. A question asked
in the right way often points to its own answer. Asking questions is the A-B-C of
diagnosis. Only the inquiring mind solves problems. - Edward Hodnett
24. No problem can be solved until it is reduced to some simple form. The changing of a vague
difficulty into a specific, concrete form is a very essential element in thinking. - J. P. Morgan
25. When I'm working on a problem, I never think about beauty. I think only how to solve
the problem. But when I have finished, if the solution is not beautiful, I know it is
wrong." - R. Buckminster Fuller
26. When the solution is simple, God is answering.--Albert Einstein
27. Science is always wrong, it never solves a problem without creating ten more. - George
Bernard Shaw
28. The solution to a problem changes the nature of the problem.--John Peers
29. If you get stuck, get away from your desk. Take a walk, take a bath, go to sleep, make a pie,
draw, listen to music, meditate, exercise; whatever you do, don't just stick there scowling at the
problem. But don't make telephone calls or go to a party; if you do, other people's words will
pour in where your lost words should be. Open a gap for them, create a space. Be patient.―
Hilary Mantel
30. It is well known that "problem avoidance" is an important part of problem solving. Instead of
solving the problem you go upstream and alter the system so that the problem does not occur in
the first place.--Edward de Bono
31. Our tendency to create heroes rarely jibes with the reality that most nontrivial problems
require collective solutions.--Warren Bennis
32. Recognizing a problem is the first step to solving it... Some problems cannot be solved but you
can make peace with them.--Sanya Friedman
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
2,3. 14.01.14
Ref#1: Jonassen, David, Johannes Strobel, and Chwee Beng Lee. "Everyday problem
solving in engineering: Lessons for engineering educators." JOURNAL OF
ENGINEERING EDUCATION-WASHINGTON- 95, no. 2 (2006): 139.
Everyday problem solving in engineering workplace
1. Workplace problems are ill structured
2. Ill structured problems include aggregates of well structured problems.
3. Ill structured problems have multiple, often conflicting goals
4. Ill structured problems are solved in many different ways
5. Success is rarely measured by engineering standards: Time budget, legal, regulatory,
environmental etc.
6. Most constraints are non-engineering: budget, schedule, functionality, brand, jobs,
tasks, tools, , acceptability to citizens, political constraints, regulations, environmental,
permits, cultural, communication etc.
7. Problem solving knowledge is distributed among team members (and also institutional
knowledge found in several organisations, regulatory bodies, and support systems)
8. Most problems require extensive collaboration
9. Engineers primarily rely on experiential knowledge
10. Engineering problems often encounter unanticipated problems
11. Engineers use multiple forms of problem representation
12. Engineers recommend more communication skills in engineering curricula: more
instruction on client interaction, collaboration, making oral presentations, and writing, as
well as the ability to deal with ambiguity and complexity.
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Ref#2: David H. Jonassen, Toward a design theory of problem solving, Educational
Technology Research and Development, Volume 48, Number 4, Springer Boston, pp
63-85, December, 2000.
Ref#3: Linda S. Gottfredson, Dissecting practical intelligence theory: Its claims and
evidence Intelligence Volume 31, Issue 4, Elsevier, July-August 2003 , 2003.
Academic Problems Real life practical problems
1. Tend to be formulated by other people
2. Well-defined or well-structured
3. Tend to be complete. Presented with all the
parameters and constraints. Usually consist of a
well-defined initial state, a known goal state, and
a constrained set of logical operators.
4. Typically posses only a single answer
5. Tend to encourage single method of obtaining a
correct answer
6. Require application of a finite number of
concepts, rules, and principles
7. Divorced from ordinary experience
8. Tend to be of little or no intrinsic interest
1 Require (re)formulation.
2 Ill-defined or ill-structured
3 Require information seeking. One
or more elements of the ill-defined
problem are unknown or not known
with certainty. The goals of real-
life practical problems are usually
vaguely defined with unstated
constraints.
4 Usually possess multiple acceptable
solutions.
5 Allow multiple paths to solution.
6 Present uncertainty about useful and
usable concepts, rules, and principles as
well. Further, in case of ill-defined
problems, the relationships between
concepts, rules, and principles may be
inconsistent between cases.
7 Embedded in and require prior
experience. This requires the problem
solver of ill-structured problem to
distinguish important from irrelevant, and
construct a problem space for generating
solutions.
8 Require motivation and personal
involvement
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Ref#4: David H. Jonassen, Toward a design theory of problem solving, Educational
Technology Research and Development, Volume 48, Number 4, Springer Boston, pp
63-85, December, 2000
 Finding the unknown is the process of problem solving.
 any goal-directed sequence of cognitive operations
o Requires the mental representation of the situation- multimodal problem space
comprises of:
 Structural knowledge (all the essential parts, states, or actions encountered in
the problem and the relationship between them at an appropriate level of
detail),
 Procedural knowledge (how to perform procedures and test activities),
reflective knowledge, images and metaphors of the system, and executive/
strategic knowledge (e.g. search and replace, serial elimination, and space
splitting)
 May be externalized through a variety of Knowledge representation and
modeling tools.
o Requires some activity-based manipulation of the problem space.
 Problem type variations
o Structured-ness: well structured  ill structured
o Complexity
 how many, how clearly, and how reliably components (issues, functions,
variables, connections, and relations) are represented implicitly or explicitly
 Most complex problems are dynamic – task environment and factors change
over time.
o Domain specificity: Abstract  Situated
 Representation variation – fidelity of representation
o Use of artificial symbol systems
o Is the problem represented in its natural complexity and modality, or is it filtered
when simulated? Should social pressures and time constraints be represented
faithfully? i.e., does the problem have to be solved in real time, or can it be solved
in leisure time? What levels of cooperation or competition are represented in the
problem?
4. 20.01.14:
Examples of non-engineering constraints: budget, schedule, functionality, brand, jobs,
tasks, tools, , acceptability to citizens, political constraints, regulations, environmental,
permits, cultural, communication etc.
Examples of unanticipated problems
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
5,6. 21.01.14:
*Understanding failures is critical to engineering success*,
*Engineering – A profession for managing technical risks*,
*Engineering is Risk Engineering*
Ref#5: Gluch, David, "A Construct for Describing Software Development Risks"
(1994). Software Engineering Institute. Paper 118.
• A problem involves a value judgment made upon the merits of the current condition. It is
a condition that exists and is undesirable.
• A risk involves a value judgment made upon the potential implications of the current
condition. It suggests a possible, future undesirable condition (consequence).
Many problems are risks themselves in that they may lead to more serious symptoms or
other problems and diminished success (loss) for the program. A difference between a
problem and a risk is a matter of degree – the extent to which the program is being
adversely affected -- and time. The conditions of a problem are more noticeably affecting
the program now. A risk, which is also a problem, involves a condition that has a noticeable
adverse effect on the program now, but also is perceived to portend additional or more
serious problems in the future.
I. Impact Analysis (Ref#6: Mindtools.com): explore possible positive and negative
consequences of a change on different parts of a system or organization.
II.All Hazard Risk Assessment Methodology,
(Ref#7: Canada Govt., http://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/prg/em/emp/2012-
ahra/index-eng.aspx)
a. Adaptive/Malicious Threats: Intentional Threats;
Criminal: Terrorist Act, Extremist Act, Individual Criminal Act, Organised Crime,
Corporate/Insider Sabotage, Corporate Espionage.
Foreign State: State-Sponsored Terrorism, Espionage, Act of War.
b. Non-Malicious Threats/Hazards:
Social: Migration, Social Unrest/Civil Disobedience.
Technical/Accidental: Spill, Fire, Explosion, Structural Collapse, System Error(s)
Yielding Failure.
Health Threats/Hazards: Pandemics/Epidemics:, Human Health Related, Animal
Health Related
Large-Scale Contamination: Drugs and Health Products Contaminant,
Food/Water/Air Contaminant, Environment Contaminant.
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Emerging Phenomena & Technologies: Biological Science & Technology, Health
Sciences, (Re) emerging Health Hazards, Chemical Compounds,
Emerging Natural Hazard(s), Material Science & Engineering,
Information Technologies
c. Natural Threats/Hazards:
Meteorological: Hurricane, Tornado/Wind Storm, Hail/Snow/ Ice Storm,
Flood/Storm Surge, Avalanche, Forest Fire, Drought, Extreme
Temperatures.
Geological: Tsunami, Earthquake, Volcanic Eruption, Land/Mudslide, Land
Subsidence, Glacier/Iceberg Effects, Space Weather.
Ecological/Global Phenomena: Infestations, Effects of Over-Exploitation, Effects
of Excessive Urbanisation, Global Warming, Extreme Climate Change
Conditions.
III. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) (Ref#8: Mindtools.com):
―What could go wrong‖ - reviewing existing processes or systems, so that
problems with these can be identified and eliminated.
a. Start by looking in detail at the proposed solution
b. Identify systematically all of the points where it could fail.
c. Rate the potential consequences of each according to:
a. Severity – how critical is the failure?
b. Occurrence – how likely is the failure to happen?
c. Detection – how easy will it be to detect the failure?
d. Using these rankings, identify the most serious threats
e. Alter the design to eliminate or minimize the likelihood of identified failure.
f. Repeat the process
IV. Risk Analysis Process (Ref#9: Mindtools.com): identify and manage potential problems
1st line of defense- Avoid or eliminate failure causes
2nd
line of defense – Detect and control failure early
3rd
line of defense – reduce impact/consequence of the failure
a. Identify Threats: identify the existing and possible threats: (understanding the limitations of
design)
 Human - from illness, death, injury, or other loss of a key individual.
 Operational - from disruption to supplies and operations, loss of access to essential assets, or
failures in distribution.
 Reputational - from loss of customer or employee confidence, or damage to market
reputation.
 Procedural - from failures of accountability, internal systems and controls; or from fraud.
 Project - from going over budget, taking too long on key tasks, or experiencing issues with
product or service quality.
 Financial - from business failure, stock market fluctuations, interest rate changes, or non-
availability of funding.
 Technical - from advances in technology, or from technical failure.
 Natural - from weather, natural disasters, or disease.
 Political - from changes in tax, public opinion, government policy, or foreign influence.
 Structural - from dangerous chemicals, poor lighting, falling boxes, or any situation where
staff/ products/ technology can be harmed.
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
b. Estimate Risk
 Risk Value = Probability of Event x Cost of Event
c. Manage Risk
 Using existing assets - reusing or redeploying existing equipment, improving existing
methods and systems, changing people's responsibilities, improving accountability and
internal controls, choosing different materials, by improving safety procedures or safety
gear, or by adding a layer of security.
 Developing a contingency plan - you accept a risk, but develop a plan to minimize its
effects if it happens. A good contingency plan will allow you to take action immediately,
and with the minimum of project control, if you find yourself in a crisis.
 Investing in new resources - include insuring the risk
 Procedural prevention plan - activities that need to take place every day, week, month, or
year to monitor or mitigate the risks you've identified. For example, daily backup of
computer files, yearly testing of your building's sprinkler system, or a monthly check on
your organization's security system.
(Ref#10: Williams, Ray C., George J. Pandelios, and Sandra G. Behrens. Software Risk
Evaluation (SRE) Method Description: Version 2.0. Carnegie Mellon University, Software
Engineering Institute, 1999
Ref#11: arr, Marvin J., Suresh L. Konda, Ira Monarch, F. Carol Ulrich, and Clay F.
Walker. Taxonomy-based risk identification. No. CMU/SEI-93-TR-06. Carnegie-Mellon
Univ Pittsburgh Pa Software Engineering Inst, 1993)
SEI Risk Management Paradigm)
- Balance the possible negative consequences of risk against the potential benefits of its associated
opportunity.
- Project risks change over time in both characteristics (probability, impact, time frame) and content
— i.e., the risk of yesterday could be the problem of today or cease to be a risk altogether, and
new risks could arise.
Element Purpose
Identify Make all known project risks explicit before they become problems
Analyze Transform risk data into decision-making information
Plan Translate risk information into decisions and mitigating actions (both present and
future) and implement those actions
Track Monitor risk indicators and mitigation actions
Control Correct for deviations from the risk mitigation plans
Communicate Enable the sharing of all information throughout the project and is the cornerstone of
effective risk management
A 2.5 hour session generates 15-40 risk statements. The risk statement is the product of the risk
interview step and consists of
• A condition: something that is true or accepted as true
• A separator: a semicolon, arrow, or linking phrase
• A consequence: something that may occur as a result of the condition
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
SEI Software Development Risk Taxonomy (Ref#12: CMU/SEI-93-TR-6, 1993)
A. Product Engineering B. Development Environment C. Program
Constraints
1. Requirements Are there risks that may arise
from requirements being placed on the product?
a. Stability b. Completeness c. Clarity
d. Validity e. Feasibility
f. Precedent g. Scale
1. Development Process
a. Formality b. Suitability
c. Process Control d. Familiarity
e. Product Control
1. Resources
a. Schedule
b. Staff
c. Budget
d. Facilities
2. Design
a. Functionality b. Difficulty c. Interfaces
d. Performance e. Testability
f. Hardware Constraints
g. Non-Developmental Software
2. Development System
a. Capacity b. Suitability
c. Usability d. Familiarity
e. Reliability f. System Support
g. Deliverability
2. Contract
a. Type of
Contract
b. Restrictions
c. Dependencies
3. Code and Unit Test
a. Feasibility b. Testing
c. Coding/Implementation
3. Management Process
a. Planning b. Project Organization
c. Management Experience
d. Program Interfaces
3. Program
Interfaces
a. Customer
b. Associate
Contractors
c.
Subcontractors
d. Prime
Contractor
e. Corporate
Management
f. Vendors
g. Politics
4. Integration and Test
a. Environment b. Product c. System
4. Management Methods
a. Monitoring b. Personnel Management
c. Quality Assurance
d. Configuration Management
5. Engineering Specialties
a. Maintainability b. Reliability c. Safety
d. Security e. Human Factors
f. Specifications
5. Work Environment
a. Quality Attitude b. Cooperation
c. Communication d. Morale
Ref#13: Lawrence, Brian, Karl Wiegers, and Christof Ebert. "The top risk of requirements
engineering." Software, IEEE 18, no. 6 (2001): 62-63.
a. Overlooking a crucial requirement- functional or attribute (quality or performance)
b. Inadequate customer representation
c. Modelling only functional requirements – ignoring quality attributes (reliability, performance,
security, robustness, ease of use; scalability, innovation, coolness, or fun).
d. Not inspecting requirements
e. Attempting to perfect requirements before beginning construction
f. Representing requirements in the form of designs.
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Taxonomy Based Questions (TBQ) wrt Requirements:
Quality of req. specs & implementation difficulty (Ref#12: CMU/SEI-93-TR-6, 1993)
a. Stability: Are requirements changing during product
development?
[1] Are the requirements stable?
(No) (1.a) What is the effect on the system - Quality/
Functionality/ Schedule/ Integration/ Design/
Testing?
[2] Are the external interfaces changing?
b. Completeness: Are requirements missing or incompletely
specified?
[3] Are there any TBDs in the specifications?
[4] Are there reqs. you know should be in the specification but
aren‘t?
(Yes) (4.a) Will you be able to get these requirements into the
system?
[5] Does the customer have unwritten
requirements/expectations?
(Yes) (5.a) Is there a way to capture these requirements?
[6] Are the external interfaces completely defined?
c. Clarity: Are requirements unclear or in need of
interpretation?
[7] Are you able to understand the requirements as written?
(No) (7.a) Are the ambiguities being resolved satisfactorily?
(Yes) (7.b) There are no ambiguities or problems of
interpretation?
d. Validity: Will the reqs. lead to the product the customer has
in mind?
[8] Are there any requirements that may not specify what the
customer really wants?
(Yes) (8.a) How are you resolving this?
[9] Do you and the customer understand the same thing by the
requirements?
(Yes) (9.a) Is there a process by which to determine this?
[10] How do you validate the requirements?
Prototyping/Analysis/ Simulations
e. Feasibility: Are requirements infeasible from an
analytical point of view?
[11] Are there any requirements that are technically
difficult to implement?
(Yes) (11.a) What are they?
(Yes) (11.b) Why are they difficult to implement?
(No) (11.c) Were feasibility studies done for these
requirements?
(Yes) (11.c.1) How confident are you of the
assumptions made in the
studies?
f. Precedent: Do requirements specify something
never done before, or that your company has not done
before?
[12] Are there any state-of-the-art requirements -
Technologies/ Methods/ Languages/ Hardware
(No) (12.a) Are any of these new to you?
(Yes) (12.b) Does the program have sufficient
knowledge in these areas?
(No) (12.b.1) Is there a plan for acquiring knowledge
in these areas?
g. Scale: Do requirements specify a product larger,
more complex, or requiring a larger organization than
in the experience of the company?
[13] Is the system size and complexity a concern?
(No) (13.a) Have you done something of this size and
complexity before?
[14] Does the size require a larger organization than
usual for your company?
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Taxonomy Based Questions (TBQ) wrt Design:
Design & feasibility of algorithms/functions, performance requirements, and internal and external
product interfaces. Difficulty in testing begins here. (Ref#12: CMU/SEI-93-TR-6, 1993)
a. Functionality: Are there any potential problems in
meeting functionality requirements?
[15] Are there any specified algorithms that may not satisfy
the requirements?
(No) (15.a) Are any of the algorithms or designs marginal
with respect to meeting requirements?
[16] How do you determine the feasibility of algorithms and
designs? - Prototyping/ Modeling/ Analysis/ Simulation
b. Difficulty: Will the design and/or implementation be
difficult to achieve?
[17] Does any of the design depend on unrealistic or
optimistic assumptions?
[18] Are there any requirements or functions that are difficult
to design?
(No) (18.a) Do you have solutions for all the requirements?
(Yes) (18.b) What are the requirements?
• Why are they difficult?
c. Interfaces: Are the internal interfaces (hardware and
software) well defined and controlled?
[19] Are the internal interfaces well defined?
- Software-to-software & Software-to-hardware
[20] Is there a process for defining internal interfaces?
(Yes) (20.a) Is there a change control process for internal
interfaces?
[21] Is hardware being developed in parallel with software?
(Yes) (21.a) Are the hardware specifications changing?
(Yes) (21.b) Have all the interfaces to software been defined?
(Yes) (21.c) Will there be engineering design models that can
be used to test the software?
d. Performance: Are there stringent response time or
throughput requirements?
[22] Are there any problems with performance? -
Throughput, Scheduling asynchronous real-time events,
Real-time response, Recovery timelines, Response time,
Database response, contention, or access
[23] Has a performance analysis been done?
(Yes) (23.a) What is your level of confidence in the
performance analysis?
(Yes) (23.b) Do you have a model to track performance
through design and implementation?
e. Testability: Is the product difficult or impossible to test?
[24] Is the software going to be easy to test?
[25] Does the design include features to aid testing?
[26] Do the testers get involved in analyzing requirements?
f. Hardware Constraints: Are there tight constraints on
the target hardware?
[27] Does the hardware limit your ability to meet any
requirements?
- Architecture, Memory capacity, Throughput, Real-time
response, Response time, Recovery timelines, Database
performance, Functionality, Reliability, Availability
g. Non-Developmental Software: Are there problems with
software used in the program but not developed by the
program?
If re-used or re-engineered software exists
[28] Are you reusing or re-engineering software not
developed on the program?
(Yes) (28.a) Do you foresee any problems?
- Documentation, Performance, Functionality, Timely
delivery, Customization
If COTS software is being used
[29] Are there any problems with using COTS (commercial
off-the-shelf) software?
• Insufficient documentation to determine interfaces, size,
or performance; Poor performance; Requires a large share
of memory or database storage; Difficult to interface with
application software; Not thoroughly tested; Not bug free;
Not maintained adequately; Slow vendor response
[30] Do you foresee any problem with integrating COTS
software updates or revisions?
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
7. 27.01.14:
Ref#14: Karl E Wiegers; Joy Beatty, Ch 32: Software Requirements and Risk Management,
Software Requirements, 3rd Edition, Microsoft Press, 2013
Risk Item tracking template
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Sample Risk item from the chemical tracking system
8,9. 28.01.14:
Ref#15: Westfall, Linda. "Software Risk Management." In Annual Quality Congress
Proceedings-American Society For Quality Control, pp. 32-39. ASQ; 1999, 2000.
Project Management Risk Management
Designed to address general or generic
risks
Designed to focus on risks unique to each
project
Looks at the big picture and plans for
details
Looks at potential problems and plans for
contingencies
Plans what should happen and looks for
ways to make it happen
Evaluates what could happen and looks for
ways to
minimize the damage
Plans for success Plans to manage and mitigate potential causes
of failure
Types of risks for software projects:
Technical risks problems with languages, project size, project functionality, platforms,
methods, standards, or processes. May result from excessive constraints, lack of
experience, poorly defined parameters, or dependencies on organizations outside the
direct control of the project team.
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Management risks: lack of planning, lack of management experience and training,
communications problems, organizational issues, lack of authority, and control
problems.
Financial risks include cash flow, capital and budgetary issues, and return on investment
constraints.
Contractual and legal risks include changing requirements, market-driven schedules,
health & safety issues, government regulation, and product warranty issues.
Personnel risks staffing lags, experience/training problems, ethical and moral issues,
staff conflicts, productivity issues.
Other resource risks include unavailability or late delivery of equipment & supplies,
inadequate tools, inadequate facilities, distributed locations, unavailability of comp uter
resources, and slow response times.
Techniques for identifying risks:
 Interviewing/Brainstorming: interviewing or brainstorming with project personnel,
customers, and vendors. Open-ended questions, e.g.,
What new or improved technologies does this project implement?
What interfaces issues still need to be defined?
What requirements exist that we aren‘t sure how to implement?
What concerns do we have about our ability to meet the required quality and
performance levels?
 Voluntary Reporting: any individual who identifies a risk is encouraged and rewarded
for bringing that risk to management‘s attention. This requires the complete elimination
of the ―shoot the messenger‖ syndrome. It avoids the temptation to assign risk reduction
actions to the person who identified the risk. Risks can also be identified through
required reporting mechanisms such as status reports or project reviews.
 Decomposition: As the product is being decomposed during the requirements and
design phases, another opportunity exists for risk identifications. Every TBD ("To Be
Done/Determined") is a potential risk. ―The most important thing about planning is
writing down what you don’t know, because what you don‘t know is what you must find
out‖ [Ould-90]. Decomposition in the form of work breakdown structures during project
planning can also help identify areas of uncertainty that may need to be recorded as
risks.
 Assumption Analysis: Process and product assumptions must be analyzed. For
example, we might assume the hardware would be available by the system test date or
three additional experienced C++ programmers will be hired by the time coding starts. If
these assumptions prove to be false, we could have major problems.
 Critical Path Analysis: As we perform critical path analysis for our project plan, we
must remain on the alert to identify risks. Any possibility of schedule slippage on the
critical path must be considered a risk because it directly impacts our ability to meet
schedule.
 Risk Taxonomies: Risk taxonomies are lists of problems that have occurred on other
projects and can be used as checklists to help ensure all potential risks have been
considered, e.g., Software Engineering Institute‘s Taxonomy -Based Risk Identification
report that covers 13 major risk areas with about 200 questions.
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Risk Analysis: each risk is assessed to determine:
 Likelihood: the probability that the risk will result in a loss
 Impact: the size or cost of that loss if the risk turns into a problem
 Timeframe: when the risk needs to be addressed, i.e., risk associated with activities in
the near future would have a higher priority than similar risks in later activities.
 Risk Exposure (RE) = Probability(of UO) * Loss (because UO), where UO =
Unexpected outcome
Avoiding: Avoiding risk may mean avoiding opportunities; Not all risks can be avoided;
Avoiding risk in one part of the project may create risks in other parts.
Getting more information: prototyping, modeling, simulation, research
Transfer: pay someone to take care of all the risks, subcontracting, outsourcing, build
penalties for contractors, pass extra charges/late deliveries for customers, insurance,
partnership, joint venture,
Risk reduction actions: actions to reduce the probability/impact, e.g., performance
simulation, liaison with customer, test bed to duplicate the operational environment, alpha
testing at contractor‘s site, periodic defect reports, reschedule some task, adjust the budget.
Take risk reduction action n, if RRL (Risk Reduction Leverage) = (REbefore – REafter) >
Risk Reduction cost
Contingency plan: implemented if risk actually turn into a problem, e.g., disaster recovery
plans, backup staff.
Risk must be assigned triggers - Early trigger, contingency plan trigger
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Ref#16: Fuller, Anne, Peter Croll, and Limei Di. "A new approach to teaching software risk
management with case studies." In Software Engineering Education and Training,
2002.(CSEE&T 2002). Proceedings. 15th Conference on, pp. 215-222. IEEE, 2002.
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Ref#17: Odzaly, Edzreena Edza, Des Greer, and Paul Sage. "Software risk management
barriers: An empirical study." In Empirical Software Engineering and Measurement, 2009.
ESEM 2009. 3rd International Symposium on, pp. 418-421. IEEE, 2009.
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Ref#18: Risk Management Guidelines Companion to AS/NZS 4360:2004, Standards
Australia/Standards New Zealand
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
10. 03.02.14:
Ref#19: Risk Management Guidelines Companion to AS/NZS 4360:2004, Standards
Australia/Standards New Zealand
1. Consequence- outcome or impact of an event. (>=1, +ve/-ve, expressed as
quantitative/qualitative, considered in relation to achievement of objectives)
2. Control- an existing process, policy, device, practice or other action that acts to minimize -
ve risk or enhance positive opportunities.
3. Control assessment- systematic review of processes to ensure that controls are still
effective and appropriate
4. Event- occurrence of a particular set of circumstances, (certain/uncertain; single
occurrence/series of occurrence.)
5. Frequency- measure of the number of occurrences per unit of time.
6. Hazard- a source of potential harm
7. Likelihood- general description of probability or frequency, expressed qualitatively or
quantitatively.
8. Loss- any -ve consequence or adverse effect, financial or otherwise
9. Monitor- to check, supervise, observe critically or measure the progress of an activity,
action or system on a regular basis in order to identify change from the performance level
required or expected
10. Residual risk- risk remaining after implementation of risk treatment
11. Risk - chance of something happening that will have a -ve/+ve impact on objectives.
{events/ circumstances consequences}
Components of a risk
a. A source of risk or hazard – the thing which has the intrinsic potential to harm or assist
e.g. a dangerous chemical, competitors, government.
b. An event or incident – something that occurs such that the source of risk has the impact
concerned e.g. a leak, competitor expands into or leaves your market area, new or
revised regulations, or some measure or observation reaching a particular trigger level.
c. A consequence, outcome or impact on a range of stakeholders and assets e.g.
environmental damage, loss or increase of market/profits, regulations increase or
decrease competitiveness.
d. A cause (what and why) (usually a string of direct and underlying causes) for the
presence of the hazard or the event occurring e.g. design, human intervention, funding,
prediction or failure to predict competitor activity, failure to or expansion of market
presence.
e. Controls and their level of effectiveness e.g. detection systems, clean up systems,
policies, security, training, market research and surveillance of market.
f. When could the risk occur and where could it occur.
12. Risk analysis- systematic process to understand the nature of and to deduce the level of risk
13. Risk assessment- risk identification+ risk analysis, + risk evaluation
14. Risk avoidance- a decision not to become involved in, or to withdraw from, a risk situation
15. Risk criteria- terms of reference by which the significance of risk is assessed, can include
associated cost and benefits, legal and statutory requirements, socioeconomic and
environmental aspects, the concerns of stakeholders, priorities and other inputs to the
assessment
16. Risk evaluation- process of comparing the level of risk against risk criteria, assists in
decisions about risk treatment.
17. Risk identification- process of determining what, where, when, why and how something
could happen
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
18. Risk management framework- set of elements of an organization‘s management system
concerned with managing risk
19. Risk management process - the systematic application of management policies,
procedures and practices to the tasks of communicating, establishing the context,
identifying, and analysing, evaluating, treating, monitoring and reviewing risk
20. Risk management- the culture, processes and structures that are directed towards realizing
potential opportunities whilst managing adverse effects to identify change from the
performance level required or expected
21. Risk reduction- actions taken to lessen the likelihood, negative consequences, or both,
associated with a risk
22. Risk retention- acceptance of the burden of loss, or benefit of gain, from a particular Risk,
includes the acceptance of risks that have not been identified, level of risk retained may
depend on risk criteria
23. Risk sharing- sharing with another party the burden of loss, or benefit of gain from a
particular risk. Legal or statutory requirements can limit, prohibit or mandate the sharing of
some risks. Risk sharing can be carried out through insurance or other agreements. Risk
sharing can create new risks or modify an existing risk.
24. Risk treatment- process of selection and implementation of measures to modify risk,
sometimes used for the measures themselves, can include avoiding, modifying, sharing or
retaining risk.
25. Stakeholders- those people and organizations who may affect, be affected by, or perceive
themselves to be affected by a decision, activity or risk, may also include ‗interested
parties‘.
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Decision making issues for selecting options for Risk treatment
Acceptability- Is the option likely to be accepted by relevant stakeholders?
Administrative efficiency- Is this option easy to implement or will it be neglected because of
difficulty of administration or lack of expertise?
Compatibility- How compatible is the treatment with others that may be adopted?
Continuity of effects- Will the effects be continuous or only short term? Will the effects of this
option be sustainable? At what cost?
Cost effectiveness- Is it cost-effective; could the same results be achieved at lower cost by other
means?
Economic and social effects- What will be the economic and social impacts of this option?
Effects on the environment- What will be the environmental impacts of this option?
Equity- Are risks and benefits distributed fairly e.g. do those responsible for creating the risk pay
for its reduction?
Individual freedom- Does the option deny any basic rights?
Jurisdictional authority- Does this level of organization or government have the authority to apply
this option? If not, can higher levels be encouraged to do so?
Leverage- Will the treatment options lead to additional benefits in other areas?
Objectives- Are organizational objectives advanced by this option?
Regulatory- Does the treatment (or lack of treatment) breach any regulatory requirements?
Political acceptability- Is it likely to be endorsed by the relevant government authority? Will it be
acceptable to communities?
Risk creation- Will this treatment introduce new risks?
Timing- Will the beneficial effects be realized quickly?
Contingency planning
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Key Questions for Risk identification
(a) What is the source of each risk?
(b) What might happen that could:
- increase or decrease the effective achievement of objectives;
- make the achievement of the objectives more/ less efficient (financial, people, time);
- cause stakeholders to take action that may influence the achievement of objectives.
- produce additional benefits?
(c) What would the effect on objectives be?
(d) When, where, why, how are these risks (both +ve and -ve) likely to occur?
(e) Who might be involved or impacted?
(f) What controls presently exist to treat this risk?
(g) What could cause the control not to have the desired affect on the risk?
After reviewing each element, the following general questions should be considered:
• What is the reliability of the information?
• How confident are we that the list of risks is comprehensive?
• Is there a need for additional research into specific risks?
• Are the objectives and scope covered adequately?
• Have the right people been involved in the risk identification process?
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Key Questions for Risk Analysis
a. What current systems may prevent, detect or lower the consequences or likelihoods of
undesirable risks or events?
b. What current systems may enhance or increase the consequences or likelihoods of
opportunities or beneficial events?
c. What are the consequences or range of consequences of the risks if they do occur?
d. What is the likelihood or range of likelihoods of the risks happening?
e. What factors might increase or decrease the likelihoods or the consequences?
f. What additional factors may need to be considered and modelled?
g. Are there limits of likelihood and consequence beyond which the analysis does not hold
true?
h. What are the limitations of the analysis and assumptions made?
i. How confident are you in your judgement or research specifically in relation to high
consequence and low likelihood risks?
j. What drives variability, volatility or uncertainty?
k. Is the logic behind the analysis methods sound?
l. For quantitative analysis, what if any statistical methods may be used to understand the
effect of uncertainty and variability?
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
11,12. 04.02.14:
Ref#20: Kajko-Mattsson, Mira, and Jaana Nyfjord. "State of software risk management
practice." LAENG International Journal of Computer Science 35, no. 4 (2008): 1-12. &
Ref#19: Risk Management Guidelines Companion to AS/NZS 4360:2004, Standards
Australia/Standards New Zealand
A. Risk Identification
1 Study relevant historical risk information
1.1 Study the organizational taxonomy of risk types
1.2 Study lessons learnt
1.3 Study other relevant information, if needed
2 Study the domain that is subject to the risk exposure
3 Elicit Risks- personal & past organizational experience,
expert judgement, brainstorming, focus group,
interview, business/strategic plans, historical records,
post event reports, insurance claim/audit reports, what-
if and scenario analysis, system design review, flow
charting, prototyping, systems analysis (decomposition),
critical path analysis, assumption analysis, checklists,
system engg. Tech‘s, SWOT, survey/questionnaire, ...
3.1 Identify potential risks
For each risk
3.2 Identify risk consequences and effects
3.3 Identify risk sources
3.4 Analyse root cause of risk
3.5 Define risk categories/classes
3.6 Describe and record each identified risk
4 Create risk list
5 Circulate risk list
6 Update risks accordingly
7 Confirm risk list
B. Risk Analysis
1 Analyze risks
1.1 Analyse each risk independently
For each risk
1.1.1 Study the risk
1.1.2 Assess risk probability
1.1.3 Assess risk impact
1.1.4 Calculate risk exposure
1.1.5 Specify risk severity
1.1.6 Analyse risk – past records, literature, experience,
market research, public consultation, experiments,
prototype, experts, modelling & simulation,
qualitative, quantitative, semi-quantitative
techniques, sensitivity analysis// matrices,
decision/fault/event tree, influence diagram, life
cycle cost analysis, network analysis,
modelling/simulation, scenario analysis, test
marketing probability/statistical analysis,..
1.1.7 Specify preliminary risk threshold value
1.1.8 Assign priority to the risk
1.1.9 Record any assumptions made
1.2 Analyse risks in groups
1.2.1 Group risks according to chosen group criteria
1.2.1 Analyze risks in groups
1.3 Consolidate risk prioritization
2 Create top priority risk list
3 Create a list of risks requiring further attention
4 Suggest a preliminary plan for managing the risks
5 Circulate prioritized risk list & prelim. plan among
stakeholders
6 Update the prioritized risk list & the prelim. plan, if
needed
C. Risk Management Planning
1 Study the risk list, the analysis results, and the preliminary plan
2 Determine strategies for managing risks
For each risk group
2.1 Determine strategic procedure for managing the risk
2.2 Determine tolerance strategy (threshold value)
2.3 Determine values or events that may trigger contingency actions
3 Create a risk management plan implementing the risk strategies selected
For each risk or risk group
3.1 Create control and monitoring plan
3.1.1 Define relevant measures/metrics for monitoring and controlling the risk
3.1.2 Determine performance indicators for measuring action effectiveness
3.1.3 Document the control and monitoring plan
3.2 Create action plan
3.2.1 Define relevant measures for treating the risk
3.2.2 Develop a fallback action plan if preliminary plan does not prove adequate
3.2.3 Document the action plan
D. Risk Monitoring and Control
1 Ensure there are procedures to
monitor risks
2 Monitor continuously all risks
following the plan
2.1 Monitor risk status
2.2 Control the changes in risk status
2.3 Record the risk status
2.4 Take appropriate measures wrt
the changed status
2.4.1 Implement the planned risk
action, if needed
2.4.2 Implement the contingency
plan, if need arises
2.4.3 Implement other actions, if
needed
3 Monitor results to determine the
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
3.3 Create contingency plan, if needed
3.3.1 Define relevant contingency actions
3.3.2 Document the contingency plan
3.4 Make schedule for implementing the plans
3.5 Identify constraints
3.6 Estimate efforts
3.7 Estimate resources
3.8 Assign budget
3.9 Assign roles/responsibilities for managing it
4 Combine all plans and put them into the risk management plan
5 Analyze the risk management plan (combined plan)
5.1 Conduct cross-plan analysis with regard to strategies chosen
5.2 Change to the plan according to the results of cross-plan analysis, if needed
6 Prepare risk related contractual agreements
7 Circulate the risk management plan to the stakeholders concerned
8 Update the risk management plan, if needed
9 Confirm risk management plan
10 Update and reconcile the documentation of the risk management plan
effectiveness of planned action
4 Seek out to identify new or
residual risks
4.1 Report the new risks accordingly
4.2 Start a new instance of the
process, if needed
5 Update the risk status and risk list
6 Record and update trends by
predefined performance
indicators
E. Risk Sign –off
1 Approve by formal sign-off
2 Update risk management progress
status
3 Eliminate risk from risk list
4 Update risk list
F. Risk Post-mortem Analysis
1 Evaluate the risk management
process
2 Create/update an organizational
risk taxonomy
3 Identify deficiencies and failures of
the process
4 Identify positive effects of the
process
5 Identify lessons learnt
6 Record the results
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Ref#21: Boehm, Barry W. "Software risk management: principles and practices." Software,
IEEE 8, no. 1 (1991): 32-41.
Top 10 Risk items Risk Management technique
Personnel shortfalls: skill and
knowledge levels, staff turnover,
team dynamics…
Staffing with top talent, job matching, team building,
key personnel agreements, cross training
Unrealistic schedules and
budgets: requirements demand
more time/ money...
Detailed multisource cost and schedule estimation,
design to cost, incremental development, software
reuse, requirement scrubbing
Developing the wrong functions
and properties: complexity,
imperfect understanding…
Organisational analysis, mission analysis, operations-
concept formulation, user survey, user participation,
prototyping, early user manual, off nominal
performance analysis
Developing the wrong user
interface: not user-friendly,
misleading…
Prototyping, scenarios, task analysis, user participation
Gold plating: adding
unnecessary ―nice‖ features
Requirements scrubbing, prototyping, cost benefit
analysis, designing to cost
Continuing stream of
requirements changes:
requirement volatility forces
rework
High change threshold, information hiding,
incremental development (deferring changes to later
developments)
Shortfalls in externally furnished
components: hardware or
supporting software is
inadequate
Benchmarking, inspection, reference checking,
compatibility analysis
Shortfalls in externally
performed tasks: subcontractors
or users don‘t do what‘s needed
Reference checking, pre-award audit, award-fee
contracts, competitive design or prototyping, team
building
Real-time performance
shortfalls: some or all of the
system causes bottlenecks…
Simulation, benchmarking, modelling, prototyping,
instrumentation, tuning
Straining computer-science
capabilities: unstable or
unfamiliar technology
Technical analysis, cost benefit analysis, prototyping,
reference checking
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Ref#22: KEIL, MARK, and PAUL CULE. "Identifying Software Project Risks: An
International Delphi Study." Journal of Management 17, no. 4 (2001): 5-36.
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Ref#23: David Johnson; Alexei White; Andre Charland, Chapter 10, Risks and best practices,
Enterprise AJAX: Strategies for Building High Performance Web Applications, Prentice Hall,
2007,
Technical Risks
Relate to the design, development, and maintenance of software, including security,
browser capabilities, timeline, cost of development and hardware, skills of the developers,
and other things of that nature.
 Varied client browsers and operating systems
o Richness Vs Reach
o Varied browser capabilities – performance differences
o Unexpected & costly maintenance because of changes in the browser, which can be
exacerbated by hard-to-maintain spaghetti code (code with disorganized and tangled
control structures).
o Forward-compatibility with new browsers
 Third-Party Tools Support and Obsolescence
Cultural/Political Risks
Focus around the experience of end users, their attitudes and expectations, and how all this
relates to software.
 Perceived insufficiency of conventional visual cues (or affordances) can actually inhibit
usability for less-technologically expert users.
 In a consumer-targeted application, switching costs are generally low, and users are
poorly motivated to acclimate to a new interface/ workflow
 Legal- there have been efforts to sue private corporations with inaccessible web sites
under the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA),
Marketing Risks
Relate to successful execution of the business model resulting in sales, donations, brand
recognition, new account registrations, and so on.
 Search Engine Accessibility
 Reach- because of disabled javascript on client browser
 Monetization- if hyperlinks trigger an XHR instead of a full page load, the ad does not
register an impression, revenue loss for website.
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Ref#24: Luke Welling; Laura Thomson, PHP and MySQL® Web Development,
Fourth Edition, Addison-Wesley Professional, 2008,
Some important Risks faced by E-commerce companies:
 Crackers- malicious computer users
 Failure to attract sufficient business
 Computer hardware failure
 Power, communication, or network failures
 Reliance on shipping services
 Extensive competition
 Software errors
 Evolving governmental policies and taxes
 System-capacity limits
Ref#25: Tom DeMarco and Tim Lister, Waltzing with Bears: Managing Risk on
Software Projects, Addison Wesley, 2013
 Intrinsic Schedule Flaw (undoable estimates)
 Specification Breakdown (stakeholder don‘t agree on what to build)
 Scope Creep (additional requirements inflate the initially accepted set)
 Personnel Loss
 Productivity Variation (assumed <>actual performance)
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Ref#26: Robertson, Suzanne, and James Robertson, Mastering the Requirements
Process: Getting Requirements Right. 3rd Edition, Addison-Wesley, 2012.
Stakeholders
Truths of Requirements
1. Requirements are not really about requirements.
2. If we must build s/w, then it must be optimally valuable for its owner.
3. If your s/w does not have to satisfy a need, then you can build anything. However, if
it is meant to satisfy a need, then you have to know what that need is to build the
right s/w.
4. There is an important difference between building a piece of s/w and solving a
business problem. The former does not necessarily accomplish the latter.
5. The requirements do not have to be written, but they have to become known to the
builders.
6. Your customer won‘t always give you the right answer. Sometimes it is impossible
for the customer to know what is right, and sometimes he just doesn‘t know what he
needs.
7. Requirements do not come about by chance. There needs to be some kind of orderly
process for developing them.
8. You can be as iterative as you want, but you still need to understand what the
business needs.
9. There is no silver bullet. Methods and tools will not compensate for poor thought
and poor workmanship.
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
10. Requirements, if they are to be implemented successfully, must be measurable and
testable.
11. You, the business analyst, will change the way the user thinks about his problem,
either now or later.
Ref#27: Karl E Wiegers; Joy Beatty, Ch 32: Software Requirements and Risk
Management, Software Requirements, 3rd Edition, Microsoft Press, 2013
Requirements Elicitation related risks:
1. Product vision and project scope- write a vision and scope document and use it to
guide decisions about requirements.
2. Time spent on requirements development -Tight proj. schedules often pressure
managers and customers into glossing over the reqs.
3. Customer engagement- Identify stakeholders, customers, and user classes early in the
project. Determine who will serve as the literal voice of the user for each user class.
Engage key stakeholders as product champions. Make sure product champions fulfill
their commitments to help you elicit the correct needs.
4. Completeness and correctness of requirements specifications-Elicit user
requirements that map to business requirements to ensure that the solution will deliver
what the customers really need. Devise usage scenarios, write tests from the
requirements, and have customers define their acceptance criteria. Create prototypes to
make the requirements more meaningful for users and to elicit specific feedback from
them. Enlist customer representatives to review the requirements and analysis models.
5. Requirements for innovative products -Emphasize market research, build prototypes,
and use focus groups to obtain early and frequent customer feedback.
6. Defining nonfunctional requirements- Precisely document nonfunctional
requirements, e.g., performance, usability, security, & reliability and their acceptance
criteria.
7. Customer agreement on requirements-Determine who the primary customers are.
Make sure you‘re relying on the right people for making decisions about requirements.
Have appropriate stakeholder representatives review the requirements.
8. Unstated requirements- Use open-ended questions to encourage customers to share
more of their thoughts, assumptions, wishes, ideas, information, and concerns than you
might otherwise hear. Asking customers what would make them reject the product might
reveal some topics that have not yet been explored.
9. Existing product used as the requirements- Reference requirements development
might not be deemed important on next-generation or replacement projects.
10. Solutions presented as needs- User-proposed solutions can mask the users‘ actual
needs, lead to automating ineffective business processes, and over-constrain the
developers‘ design options.
11. Distrust between the business and the development team-effective requirements
engineering demands close collaboration among various stakeholders, particularly
customer communities and developers.
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Requirements Analysis related risks:
12. Requirements prioritization Ensure that every functional requirement, feature, or
user requirement is prioritized and allocated to a specific system release or iteration.
13. Technically difficult features- identify those reqs that might take longer than
anticipated to implement. Use status tracking to watch for requirements that are falling
behind their implementation schedule. Take corrective action as early as possible.
Prototype the novel or risky requirements to select effective approaches.
14. Unfamiliar technologies, methods, languages, tools, or hardware- Don‘t
underestimate the learning curve. Identify those high-risk requirements early on, and
work with the development team to allow sufficient time for false starts, learning, and
experimentation.
Requirements specification related risks:
15. Requirements understanding- Different interpretations of the requirements by
developers and customers lead to expectation gaps, in which the delivered product fails
to satisfy customer needs. Peer review of requirements by developers, testers, and
customers can mitigate this risk. Creating models and prototypes that represent the
requirements from multiple perspectives can reveal fuzzy, ambiguous requirements.
16. Time pressure to proceed despite open issues It is a good idea to mark areas of
the requirements that need further work with TBD (to be determined) or as issues, but
it‘s risky to proceed with construction if these haven‘t been resolved. Record who is
responsible for closing each open issue and the target date for resolution.
17. Ambiguous terminology Create a glossary to define business and technical terms
that might be interpreted differently by different readers. Requirements reviews can help
participants reach a common understanding of terms and concepts.
18. Design included in requirements Design elements that are included in the
requirements place constraints on the options available to developers. Unnecessary
constraints inhibit the creation of optimal designs. Review the requirements to make sure
they emphasize what needs to be done to solve the business problem, rather than
dictating the solution.
Requirements validation related risks:
19. Un-validated requirements- confirm the correctness and quality of each set of
requirements before their implementation, Include time and resources for these quality
activities in the project plan. Gain commitment from your customer representatives to
participate in requirements reviews. Perform incremental, informal reviews to find
problems as early and cheaply as possible.
20. Inspection proficiency- Train all team members who will participate in inspections
of requirements documents. Invite an experienced consultant to observe your early
inspections to coach the participants.
Requirements management related risks:
21. Changing requirements documented business requirements and scope definitions
as the benchmark for approving changes. Use collaborative elicitation process with
extensive user involvement. Design the system for easy modifiability, particularly when
you are following an iterative life cycle.
22. Requirements change process Risks related to how requirements changes are
handled include not having a defined change process, using ineffective change
mechanisms, failing to incorporate valuable changes efficiently, and incorporating
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
changes that bypass the process. A requirements change process that includes impact
analysis, a change control board, and a tool to support the process is an important
starting point. Clear communication of changes to the affected stakeholders is essential.
23. Unimplemented requirements- Requirements tracing helps you avoid overlooking
any requirements during design, construction, or testing.
24. Expanding project scope- plan on a phased or incremental delivery life cycle.
Implement the top priority functionality in the early releases, and elaborate the system‘s
capabilities in later iterations.
Ref#28: Karl E Wiegers; Joy Beatty, Ch 15: Risk reduction through prototyping,
Software Requirements, 3rd Edition, Microsoft Press, 2013
Prototyping related Risks:
1. Pressure to release the prototype- Stakeholder will see a running throwaway prototype
and conclude that the product is nearly completed.
2. Distraction by details - With real-looking prototypes, users become fixated on details
about how the user interface will look and operate, it‘s easy for users to forget that they
should be primarily concerned with conceptual issues at the requirements stage. Limit
the prototype to the displays, functions, and navigation options that will let you clear up
uncertain requirements
3. Unrealistic performance expectations- users will infer the expected performance of the
final product from the prototype‘s performance
4. Investing excessive effort in prototypes- This can happen when you are prototyping
the whole solution rather than only the most uncertain, high-risk, or complex portions.
Treat a prototype as an experiment. You‘re testing the hypothesis that the requirements
are sufficiently defined and the key human-computer interface and architectural issues
are resolved so that design and construction can proceed. Do just enough prototyping to
test the hypothesis, answer the questions, and refine the requirements.
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
13. 10.02.14:
Taxonomy Based Questions (TBQ) wrt Code and Unit Test (Ref#12: CMU/SEI-93-
TR-6, 1993)
a. Feasibility: Is the implementation of the
design difficult or impossible?]
[31] Are any parts of the product
implementation not completely defined by the
design specification?
[32] Are the selected algorithms and designs
easy to implement?
b. Testing: Are the specified level and time
for unit testing adequate?
[33] Do you begin unit testing before you
verify code with respect to the design?
[34] Has sufficient unit testing been specified?
[35] Is there sufficient time to perform all the
unit testing you think should be done?
[36] Will compromises be made regarding unit
testing if there are schedule problems?
c. Coding/Implementation: Are there any
problems with coding and implementation?
[37] Are the design specifications in
sufficient detail to write the code?
[38] Is the design changing while coding
is being done? [39] Are there system
constraints that make the code difficult to
write?
-- Timing, Memory, External storage
[40] Is the language suitable for
producing the software on this program?
[41] Are there multiple languages used
on the program?
(Yes) (41.a) Is there interface
compatibility between the code produced
by the different compilers?
[42] Is the development computer the
same as the target computer?
(No) (42.a) Are there compiler
differences between the two?
If developmental hardware is being
used
[43] Are the hardware specifications
adequate to code the software?
[44] Are the hardware specifications
changing while the code is being written?
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Taxonomy Based Questions (TBQ) (Ref#12: CMU/SEI-93-TR-6, 1993)
Integration and Test Engineering Specialties
a. Environment: Is the integration and
test environment adequate?
[45] Will there be sufficient hardware to
do adequate integration and testing?
[46] Is there any problem with
developing realistic scenarios and test
data to demonstrate any requirements? -
Specified data traffic, Real-time
response, Asynchronous event handling,
Multi-user interaction
[47] Are you able to verify performance
in your facility?
[48] Does hardware and software
instrumentation facilitate testing?
(Yes) (48.a) Is it sufficient for all
testing?
b. Product: Is the interface definition
inadequate, facilities inadequate, time
insufficient?
[49] Will the target hardware be
available when needed?
[50] Have acceptance criteria been
agreed to for all requirements?
(Yes) (50.a) Is there a formal
agreement?
[51] Are the external interfaces defined,
documented, and base-lined?
[52] Are there any requirements that
will be difficult to test?
[53] Has sufficient product integration
been specified?
[54] Has adequate time been allocated
for product integration and test?
[55] Will vendor data be accepted in
verification of requirements allocated to
COTS products?
(Yes) (55.a) Is the contract clear on
that?
c. System: System integration
uncoordinated, poor interface definition,
or inadequate facilities?]
[56] Has sufficient system integration
been specified?
[57] Has adequate time been allocated
a. Maintainability: Will the implementation be
difficult to understand or maintain?
[61] Does the architecture, design, or code create
any maintenance difficulties?
[62] Are the maintenance people involved early
in the design?
[63] Is the product documentation adequate for
maintenance by an outside organization?
b. Reliability: Are the reliability or availability
requirements difficult to meet?
[64] Are reliability requirements allocated to the
software?
[65] Are availability requirements allocated to
the software?
(Yes) (65.a) Are recovery timelines any
problem?
c. Safety: Are the safety requirements infeasible
and not demonstrable?
[66] Are safety requirements allocated to the
software?
(Yes) (66.a) Do you see any difficulty in meeting
the safety requirements?
[67] Will it be difficult to verify satisfaction of
safety requirements?
d. Security: Are the security requirements more
stringent than the current state of the practice or
program experience?
[68] Are there unprecedented or state-of-the-art
security requirements?
[69] Is it an Orange Book system?
[70] Have you implemented this level of security
before?
e. Human Factors: Will the system will be
difficult to use because of poor human interface
definition?
[71] Do you see any difficulty in meeting the
Human Factors requirements?
(No) (71.a) How are you ensuring that you will
meet the human interface requirements?
If prototyping
(Yes) (71.a.1) Is it a throw-away prototype?
(No) (71.a.1a) Are you doing evolutionary
development?
(Yes) (71.a.1a.1) Are you experienced in this
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
for system integration and test?
[58] Are all contractors part of the
integration team?
[59] Will the product be integrated into
an existing system?
(Yes) (59.a) Is there a parallel cutover
period with the existing system?
(No) (59.a.1) How will you guarantee
the product will work correctly when
integrated?
[60] Will system integration occur on
customer site?
type of development?
(Yes) (71.a.1a.2) Are interim versions
deliverable?
(Yes) (71.a.1a.3) Does this complicate change
control?
f. Specifications: Is the documentation adequate
to design, implement, and test the system?
[72] Is the software requirements specification
adequate to design the system?
[73] Are the hardware specifications adequate to
design and implement the software?
[74] Are the external interface requirements well
specified?
[75] Are the test specifications adequate to fully
test the system?
If in or past implementation phase
[76] Are the design specifications adequate to
implement the system?
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
14,15. 10.02.14:
Ref#29: Cebula, James L., and Lisa R. Young. A Taxonomy of Operational Cyber
Security Risks. No. CMU/SEI-2010-TN-028. Carnegie-Mellon Univ Pittsburgh Pa
Software Engineering Inst, 2010.
Sources of Operational Cyber Security Risk to information and technology assets that
have consequences affecting the confidentiality, availability, or integrity of information
or information systems.
1. Actions of People
1.1 Inadvertent
mistake—individual with knowledge of
the correct procedure accidentally
taking incorrect action
error—individual without knowledge of
the correct procedure taking incorrect
action
omission—individual not taking a known
correct action often due to hasty
performance of a procedure
1.2 Deliberate
fraud—a deliberate action taken to
benefit oneself or a collaborator at the
expense of the organization
sabotage—a deliberate action taken to
cause a failure in an organizational
asset/process, generally carried out by
someone possessing or with access to
inside knowledge
theft—the intentional, unauthorized
taking of organizational assets, in
particular information assets
vandalism—the deliberate damaging of
organizational assets, often at random
1.3 Inaction
skills—an individual‘s lack of ability to
undertake the necessary action
knowledge—an individual‘s ignorance of
the need for action
guidance—a knowledgeable individual
lacking the proper guidance or
direction to act
availability—the unavailability or
nonexistence of the appropriate
resource needed to carry out the
action
2. Systems and Technology Failures
2.1 Hardware
capacity—inability to handle a given load or
volume of information
performance—inability to complete instructions
or process information within acceptable
parameters (speed, power consumption, heat
load, etc.)
maintenance—failure to perform required
upkeep of the equipment
obsolescence—operation of the equipment
beyond its supported service life
2.2 Software
compatibility—inability of >=2 pieces of s/w to
work together as expected
configuration management—improper
application and management of the
appropriate settings and parameters for the
intended use
change control—changes made to the
application or its configuration by a process
lacking appropriate authorization, review,
and rigor
security settings—improper application of
security settings, either too relaxed or too
restrictive, within the program or application
coding practices—failures due to programming
errors, including syntax and logic problems
and failure to follow secure coding practices
testing—inadequate testing of the software
application/configuration
2.3 Systems
design—improper fitness of the system for the
intended application/use
specifications—improper/inadequate definition
of requirements; failure to adhere to the
requirements during system construction
integration—failure of various components of
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
the system to function together or interface
correctly; inadequate testing of the system
complexity—large number or interrelationships
between components
3. Failed Internal Processes
3.1 Process design or execution
process flow—poor design of the movement
of process outputs to their intended
consumers
process documentation—inadequate
documentation of the process inputs,
outputs, flow, and stakeholders
roles and responsibilities—insufficient
definition and understanding of process
stakeholder roles and responsibilities
notifications and alerts—inadequate
notification regarding a potential process
problem or issue
information flow—poor design of the
movement of process information to
interested parties and stakeholders
escalation of issues—the inadequate or
nonexistent ability to escalate abnormal or
unexpected conditions for action by
appropriate personnel
service level agreements—the lack of
agreement among process stakeholders on
service expectations that causes a failure to
complete expected actions
task hand-off—―dropping the ball‖ due to the
inefficient handing off of a task in progress
from one responsible party to another
3.2 Process controls
status monitoring—failure to review and
respond to routine information about the
operation of a process
metrics—failure to review process
measurements over time for the purpose of
determining performance trends
periodic review—failure to review the end-to-
end operation of the process on a periodic
basis and make any needed changes
process ownership—failure of a process to
deliver the expected outcome because of
poor definition of its ownership or poor
governance practices
4. External Events
4.1 Disasters
weather event—adverse weather situations
such as rain, snow, tornado, or
hurricane
fire—disruption caused by a fire within or
external to a facility
flood—disruption caused by a flood within
or external to a facility
earthquake—disruption of organizational
operations due to an earthquake
unrest—disruption of operations due to
civil-disorder/riot/terrorism
pandemic—widespread medical
conditions that disrupt organizational
operations
4.2 Legal issues
regulatory compliance—new
governmental regulation or failure to
comply with existing regulation
legislation—new legislation that impacts
the organization
litigation—legal action taken against the
organization by any stakeholder,
including employees and customers
4.3 Business issues
supplier failure—the temporary or
permanent inability of a supplier to
deliver needed products or services to
the organization
market conditions—the diminished ability
of the organization to sell its products
and services in the market
economic conditions—the inability of the
organization to obtain needed funding
for its operations
4.4 Service dependencies
utilities—failure of the organization‘s
electric power supply, water supply, or
telecommunications services
emergency services—dependencies on
public response services e.g., fire,
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
3.3 Supporting processes
staffing—failure to provide appropriate human
resources to support its operations
funding—failure to provide appropriate
financial resources to support its operations
training and development—Failure to
maintain the appropriate skills within the
workforce
procurement—failure to provide the proper
purchased service and goods necessary to
support operations
police, and emergency medical services
fuel—failure of external fuel supplies, e.g.,
for a backup generator
transportation—failures in external
transportation systems, e.g.,, inability
of employees to report to work and
inability to make and receive deliveries
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Ref#30: Stoneburner, Gary, Alice Goguen, and Alexis Feringa. "Risk Management
Guide for Information Technology Systems: Recommendations of the National
Institute of Standards and Technology" Computer Security Division, NIST Special
Publication 800, no. 30 (2002): 800-30.
Integration of Risk Management into the SDLC
SDLC Phases Phase Characteristics Support from Risk Management Activities
Initiation The need for an IT system is expressed
and the purpose and scope of the IT
system is documented
Identified risks are used to support the
development of the system requirements,
including security requirements, and a security
concept of operations (strategy)
Development or
Acquisition
The IT system is designed, purchased,
programmed, developed, or otherwise
constructed
The risks identified during this phase can be
used to support the security analyses of the IT
system that may lead to architecture and
design tradeoffs during system Development.
Implementation The system security features should be
configured, enabled, tested, and verified
The risk management process supports the
assessment of the system implementation
against its requirements and within its
modelled operational environment. Decisions
regarding risks identified must be made prior
to system operation
Operation or
Maintenance
The system performs its functions.
Typically the system is being modified
on an ongoing basis through the addition
of hardware and software and by changes
to organizational processes, policies, and
procedures
Risk management activities are performed for
periodic system reauthorization (or
reaccreditation) or whenever
major changes are made to an IT system in its
operational, production environment (e.g., new
system interfaces)
Disposal This phase may involve the disposition
of information, hardware, and software.
Activities may include moving,
archiving, discarding, or destroying
information and sanitizing the hardware
and software
Risk management activities are performed for
system
components that will be disposed of or
replaced to
ensure that the hardware and software are
properly disposed of, that residual data is
appropriately handled, and that system
migration is conducted in a secure and
systematic manner
Sample Interview Questions to be asked during interviews with site personnel to gain an understanding of
the operational characteristics of an organization
1. Who are valid users?
2. What is the mission of the user organization?
3. What is the purpose of the system in relation to the mission?
4. How important is the system to the user organization‘s mission?
5. What is the system-availability requirement?
6. What information (both incoming and outgoing) is required by the organization?
7. What information is generated by, consumed by, processed on, stored in, and retrieved by the
system?
8. How important is the information to the user organization‘s mission?
9. What are the paths of information flow?
10. What types of information are processed by and stored on the system (e.g., financial, personnel,
research and development, medical, command and control)?
11. What is the sensitivity (or classification) level of the information?
12. What information handled by or about the system should not be disclosed and to whom?
13. Where specifically is the information processed and stored?
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
14. What are the types of information storage?
15. What is the potential impact on the organization if the information is disclosed to unauthorized
personnel?
16. What are the requirements for information availability and integrity?
17. What is the effect on the organization‘s mission if the system or information is not reliable?
18. How much system downtime can the organization tolerate? How does this downtime compare with
the mean repair/recovery time? What other processing or communications options can the user
access?
19. Could a system or security malfunction or unavailability result in injury or death?
Ref#31: Dey, Prasanta Kumar, Jason Kinch, and Stephen O. Ogunlana. "Managing risk in
software development projects: a case study." Industrial Management & Data Systems 107, no.
2 (2007): 284-303.
Some questions for risk identification
1. Whether the developed software fulfils the customers‘ demand/requirement?
2. How much competition it is likely to face?
3. Whether benefits from the software surpass the cost of development?
4. Is the project technically feasible?
5. Will hardware, software, and networks function properly?
6. Will the technology be available in time to meet project objectives?
7. Is there any chance of the technology becoming obsolete before use?
8. Will security system work throughout its life?
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Ref#32: Iacovou, Charalambos L., and Robbie Nakatsu. "A risk profile of offshore-
outsourced development projects." Communications of the ACM 51, no. 6 (2008): 89-
94.
Most important Risk Factor in Offshore-outsourced projects
1. Lack of top management commitment
2. Original set of requirements is mis-communicated
3. Language barriers in project communications
4. Inadequate user involvement
5. Lack of offshore project management know-how
by client
6. Failure to manage end user expectations
7. Poor change controls
8. Lack of business know-how by offshore team
9. Lack of required technical know-how by offshore
team
10. Failure to consider all costs
11. Telecommunications and infrastructure issues
12. Vendor viability
13. Difficulties in ongoing support and maintenance
14. Low visibility of project process
15. Cross-cultural differences
16. High turnover of vendor employees
17. Constraints due to time-zone differences
18. Lack of continuous, face-to-face interactions
across team members
19. Threats to the security of information resources
20. Negative impact on employee morale
21. Unfamiliarity with international and foreign
contract law
22. Differences in development
methodology/processes
23. Political instability in offshore destinations
24. Negative impact on image of client organization
25.Currency fluctuations
Ref#33: Persson, John Stouby, and Lars Mathiassen. "A process for managing risks in
distributed teams." Software, IEEE 27, no. 1 (2010): 20-29.
Identifying and analyzing distributed-team risks
Area Risk factor and risk
question
Low risk Medium risk High risk
Task
distri-
bution
Task uncertainty. Do team
members posses the knowledge
and capabilities needed?
Team members know the
task, and it fits well with their
capabilities.
Team members have
reasonable task knowledge,
and their capabilities cover
most challenges.
There are serious
gaps in team
members‘ task
knowledge and
required capabili-
ties.
Task equivocality. Do team
members understand the
specification of the task?
The task is well specified and
understood by team members.
Most aspects of the specifica-
tion are clear, and key team
members understand the task.
The specification
lacks clarity on
major points, and
many team
members have
limited task
understanding.
Task coupling. Is the task
divided into distinct subtasks
across sites?
There is minor need to coor-
dinate development work
across sites.
There is some need to coordi-
nate development work across
sites.
There is major need
to coordinate
development work
across sites.
Know-
ledge
manage-
ment
Knowledge creation. How is
task knowledge created across
sites?
All sites contribute well to the
creation of required task
knowledge.
Most sites contribute reason-
ably well to the creation of
required task knowledge.
There are major
problems related to
the creation of
required task
knowledge.
Knowledge capture. How is
task knowledge captured
across sites?
Task knowledge is captured
effectively across sites.
Task knowledge is, with
some exceptions, captured
effectively across sites.
There are major
problems related to
capturing task
knowledge across
sites.
Knowledge integration. How
is task knowledge integrated
and shared across sites?
Task knowledge is integrated
and shared well across sites.
Task knowledge is, with some
exceptions, well integrated
and shared across sites.
There is limited
task knowledge
integration and
sharing across sites.
Geog-
raphical
Spatial distribution. How
many sites are involved, and
There are few sites collabo-
rating over limited distance.
There are several sites
collaborating over some
There are many
sites collaborating
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
distri-
bution
what‘s the distance between
them?
distance. over considerable
distance.
Temporal distribution. How
do time zone differences
impact development work?
Time zone differences cause
no or only minor problems.
Time zone differences require
some ad hoc coordination
across sites.
Time zone
differences cause
major problems and
require constant
attention across
sites.
Goal distribution. How
diverse are goals across sites?
Team members share major
goals across sites.
There is some variation in
goals across sites.
There are major
goal conflicts
across sites.
Colla-
boration
structure
Collaboration capability. Can
team members collaborate
across sites?
Team members collaborate
across sites as needed.
In most cases, team members
collaborate across sites as
needed.
Breakdowns in
collaboration across
sites are common.
Coordination mechanisms.
Are coordination mechanisms
appropriate across sites?
Coordination mechanisms are
shared across sites and well
adapted to the distributed
context.
Coordination mechanisms are
shared by most team members
and reasonably well adapted
to the distributed context.
Coordination
mechanisms are not
shared across sites
and poorly adapted
to the distributed
context.
Process alignment. Are
processes aligned across sites?
Processes (including methods,
templates, and guidelines) are
shared across sites.
Processes (incl. methods,
templates & guidelines) vary
but are reasonably well
aligned across sites.
Processes
(including methods,
templates, and
guidelines) are
different across
sites.
Cultural
distri-
bution
Language barriers. Do
language and communication
norms vary across sites?
Team members share lan-
guage and communication
norms across sites.
Team members use a
common language with minor
differences in comm‘ norms.
Team members
don‘t share a
common language
and have different
comm‘ norms.
Work culture. Does work
culture differ between sites?
Team members share work
culture (including authority
and team behavior) across
sites.
Team members understand
variations in work culture
(including authority and team
behavior) across sites.
Team members
don‘t understand
variations in work
culture (including
authority and team
behavior) across
sites.
Cultural bias. Does cultural
bias impact communication
and cooperation across sites?
There are no major variations
in cultural values across sites.
Team members communicate
and collaborate based on
appreciation of cultural
variations across sites.
Team members
lack knowledge of
variations in
cultural values
across sites.
Stake-
holder
relations
Stakeholder commitment. Are
stakeholders committed to the
project?
Key stakeholders are com-
mitted and share a common
project identity across sites.
Most stakeholders are com-
mitted to the project and
know about its distributed
organization.
Stakeholder
commitment varies,
and there is no
shared project
identity.
Mutual trust. Is there trust
between stakeholders across
sites?
There is appropriate mutual
trust across sites.
There are instances of insuf-
ficient trust across sites.
Stakeholders don‘t
trust each other
across sites.
Relationship building. Can the
project integrate stakeholders
across sites?
Existing and new stake-
holders are well integrated
across sites.
Existing and new stakehold-
ers are mostly integrated well
across sites.
There are several
cases of
stakeholders not
being well
integrated.
Comm-
unication
infra-
structure
Personal communication.
What‘s the level of personal
communication and social
interaction across sites?
The level of personal com-
munication and social
interaction across sites is
appropriate.
There is some personal
communication and social
interaction across sites.
There is limited
personal
communication and
social interaction
across sites.
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
Interaction media. How well
is communication across sites
supported by media?
Communication needs across
sites are well supported by
media.
Communication across sites
is for many purposes well
supported by media.
There are severe
shortcomings in
media support of
communication
across sites.
Teleconference management.
How well is teleconferencing
managed across sites?
Teleconferencing is used
appropriately and managed
effectively across sites.
Teleconferencing is used to
some extent across sites and
reasonably well managed.
There is limited use
of teleconferencing
across sites and
they aren‘t
managed well.
Techno-
logy
setup
Network capability. Are
communication networks
reliable?
Networks aren‘t causing
delays in development work
and communication.
Networks are causing some
delays in development work
and communication.
Networks are
causing serious
delays in
development work
and
communication.
Tool compatibility. Are tools
compatible across sites?
There are no compatibility
issues between tools across
sites.
Compatibility issues between
tools create some
collaboration barriers across
sites.
Compatibility
issues between
tools create serious
collaboration
barriers across
sites.
Configuration management.
How are configurations
managed across sites?
There‘s appropriate configu-
ration management across
sites.
Configuration management
is, with some exceptions,
appropriate across sites.
There is limited
configuration
management across
sites.
Resolution techniques for mitigating distributed team software development risks
SWOT analysis (Ref#34: Mindtools.com): Identify the key internal and external factors
that are important to achieving the objective
Strengths: characteristics of the business or project that give it an
advantage over others- What advantages does your organization have?
What do you do better than anyone else? What unique or lowest-cost
resources can you draw upon that others can't? What do people in your
market see as your strengths? What is your organization‘s USP? What
factors mean that you "get the sale"?
-We are able to respond very quickly as we have no red
tape, and no need for higher management approval.
-We are able to give really good customer care, as the
current small amount of work means we have plenty of
time to devote to customers.
-Our lead consultant has strong reputation in the market.
-We can change direction quickly if we find that our
marketing is not working.
-We have low overheads, so we can offer good value to
Planning
1.Acquire
complementary skills
2.Adjust meetings to
distributed context
3.Divide tasks
systematically
between sites
4.Reduce coupling
between sites
5.Create shared
collaboration platform
6.Establish shared goals
7.Establish
communication norms
8.Define roles and
responsibilities
Control
9. Focus on deliverables
10. Establish task coordination
between sites
11. Maintain site autonomy
12. Establish shared control
mechanisms
13. Establish temporal
coordination mechanisms
14. Maintain project
organization overview
15. Maintain task overview
within and across sites
16. Monitor and improve
communication
17. Maintain a supportive
environment
18. Analyze and manage errors
Social integration
19. Improve capability to
manage cultural
differences
20. Improve distributed
collaboration skills
21. Improve language skills
22. Emphasize early
teambuilding activities
23. Promote humor and
openness
24. Use mentors to integrate
new members
25. Use face-to-face
meetings appropriately
26. Develop liaisons
between sites
27. Adopt shared reward
systems
Technical integration
28. Increase technical
compatibility between
sites
29. Standardize and train
in methods across sites
30. Adopt appropriate
communication
technologies
31. Improve collaboration
and communication
technology skills
32. Improve development
technology skills
33. Handle differences in
methods between sites
34. Combine waterfall
model and prototyping
Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
customers.
Weaknesses: characteristics that place the team at a disadvantage
relative to others- What could you improve? What should you avoid?
What are people in your market likely to see as weaknesses?
What factors lose you sales?
-Our company has little market presence or reputation.
-We have a small staff, with a shallow skills base in many
areas.
-We are vulnerable to vital staff being sick, and leaving.
-Our cash flow will be unreliable in the early stages.
Opportunities: elements that the project could exploit to its advantage- What good
opportunities can you spot? What interesting trends are you aware of? Useful
opportunities can come from such things as:--
Changes in - technology/markets on broad/narrow scale; government policy related to your
field; social patterns, population profiles, lifestyle changes; Local events.
-Our business sector is expanding, with
many future opportunities for success.
-Local government wants to encourage
local businesses.
-Our competitors may be slow to adopt
new technologies.
Threats: elements in the environment that could cause trouble for the business or
project- What obstacles do you face? What are your competitors doing? Are quality
standards or specifications for your job, products or services changing? Is changing
technology threatening your position? Do you have bad debt or cash-flow
problems? Could any of your weaknesses seriously threaten your business?
-Developments in technology may change this
market beyond our ability to adapt.
-A small change in the focus of a large
competitor might wipe out any market position
we achieve.
Ref#35: Manual of Accreditation, National Board of Accreditation, India, 2013,
Graduate Attributes UG Engineering
1. Engineering knowledge: Apply the knowledge of mathematics, science, engineering
fundamentals, and an engineering specialisation to the solution of complex engineering
problems.
2. Problem analysis: Identify, formulate, research literature, and analyse complex
engineering problems reaching substantiated conclusions using first principles of
mathematics, natural sciences, and engineering sciences.
3. Design/development of solutions: Design solutions for complex engineering problems
and design system components or processes that meet the specified needs with
appropriate consideration for the public health and safety, and the cultural, societal,
and environmental considerations.
4. Conduct investigations of complex problems: Use research-based knowledge and
research methods including design of experiments, analysis and interpretation of data,
and synthesis of the information to provide valid conclusions.
5. Modern tool usage: Create, select, and apply appropriate techniques, resources, and
modern engineering and IT tools including prediction and modelling to complex
engineering activities with an understanding of the limitations.
6. The engineer and society: Apply reasoning informed by the contextual knowledge to
assess societal, health, safety, legal, and cultural issues and the consequent
responsibilities relevant to the professional engineering practice.
7. Environment and sustainability: Understand the impact of the professional
engineering solutions in societal and environmental contexts, and demonstrate the
knowledge of, and need for sustainable development.
8. Ethics: Apply ethical principles and commit to professional ethics and responsibilities
and norms of the engineering practice.
9. Individual and Team work: Function effectively as an individual, and as a member or
leader in diverse teams, and in multidisciplinary settings.
10. Communication: Communicate effectively on complex engineering activities with the
engineering community and with society at large, such as, being able to comprehend and
write effective reports and design documentation, make effective presentations, and give
and receive clear instructions.
Problem Solving and Research Methodology: Part-I- Risk Engineering - Excerpts of references:
Problem Solving and Research Methodology: Part-I- Risk Engineering - Excerpts of references:
Problem Solving and Research Methodology: Part-I- Risk Engineering - Excerpts of references:
Problem Solving and Research Methodology: Part-I- Risk Engineering - Excerpts of references:

Más contenido relacionado

Destacado

Chemistry of solutions
Chemistry of solutionsChemistry of solutions
Chemistry of solutionsArturo Mendez
 
Exploratory Data Analysis - Checking For Normality
Exploratory Data Analysis - Checking For NormalityExploratory Data Analysis - Checking For Normality
Exploratory Data Analysis - Checking For NormalityAzmi Mohd Tamil
 
Puberty.ppt
Puberty.pptPuberty.ppt
Puberty.pptShama
 
Methodology of Systems Concepts Research (SCR)
Methodology of Systems Concepts Research (SCR)Methodology of Systems Concepts Research (SCR)
Methodology of Systems Concepts Research (SCR)Antonio Sallum Librelato
 
Introduction to Statistical Analysis Using Graphpad Prism 6
Introduction to Statistical Analysis Using Graphpad Prism 6Introduction to Statistical Analysis Using Graphpad Prism 6
Introduction to Statistical Analysis Using Graphpad Prism 6Azmi Mohd Tamil
 
Data collection & management
Data collection & managementData collection & management
Data collection & managementAzmi Mohd Tamil
 
9. Calculate samplesize for diagnostic study
9. Calculate samplesize for diagnostic study9. Calculate samplesize for diagnostic study
9. Calculate samplesize for diagnostic studyAzmi Mohd Tamil
 
Role of yoga in tension outlets of children
Role of yoga in tension outlets of childrenRole of yoga in tension outlets of children
Role of yoga in tension outlets of childrenShama
 
Descriptive Analysis in Statistics
Descriptive Analysis in StatisticsDescriptive Analysis in Statistics
Descriptive Analysis in StatisticsAzmi Mohd Tamil
 
6. Calculate samplesize for cohort studies
6. Calculate samplesize for cohort studies6. Calculate samplesize for cohort studies
6. Calculate samplesize for cohort studiesAzmi Mohd Tamil
 
Research Methodology General.ppt
Research  Methodology  General.pptResearch  Methodology  General.ppt
Research Methodology General.pptShama
 
Resin Transfer Molding (RTM)
Resin Transfer Molding (RTM)Resin Transfer Molding (RTM)
Resin Transfer Molding (RTM)Kamlesh Jakhar
 
Deciding on a medical research topic: your first challenge
Deciding on a medical research topic: your first challengeDeciding on a medical research topic: your first challenge
Deciding on a medical research topic: your first challengeAzmi Mohd Tamil
 
7. Calculate samplesize for clinical trials
7. Calculate samplesize for clinical trials7. Calculate samplesize for clinical trials
7. Calculate samplesize for clinical trialsAzmi Mohd Tamil
 

Destacado (20)

Chemistry of solutions
Chemistry of solutionsChemistry of solutions
Chemistry of solutions
 
Research Week 2014
Research Week 2014Research Week 2014
Research Week 2014
 
Lecture 01 a
Lecture 01 aLecture 01 a
Lecture 01 a
 
Exploratory Data Analysis - Checking For Normality
Exploratory Data Analysis - Checking For NormalityExploratory Data Analysis - Checking For Normality
Exploratory Data Analysis - Checking For Normality
 
8.processing
8.processing8.processing
8.processing
 
Puberty.ppt
Puberty.pptPuberty.ppt
Puberty.ppt
 
Methodology of Systems Concepts Research (SCR)
Methodology of Systems Concepts Research (SCR)Methodology of Systems Concepts Research (SCR)
Methodology of Systems Concepts Research (SCR)
 
Introduction to Statistical Analysis Using Graphpad Prism 6
Introduction to Statistical Analysis Using Graphpad Prism 6Introduction to Statistical Analysis Using Graphpad Prism 6
Introduction to Statistical Analysis Using Graphpad Prism 6
 
Data collection & management
Data collection & managementData collection & management
Data collection & management
 
9. Calculate samplesize for diagnostic study
9. Calculate samplesize for diagnostic study9. Calculate samplesize for diagnostic study
9. Calculate samplesize for diagnostic study
 
Role of yoga in tension outlets of children
Role of yoga in tension outlets of childrenRole of yoga in tension outlets of children
Role of yoga in tension outlets of children
 
Descriptive Analysis in Statistics
Descriptive Analysis in StatisticsDescriptive Analysis in Statistics
Descriptive Analysis in Statistics
 
6. Calculate samplesize for cohort studies
6. Calculate samplesize for cohort studies6. Calculate samplesize for cohort studies
6. Calculate samplesize for cohort studies
 
2.research problem
2.research problem2.research problem
2.research problem
 
Research Methodology General.ppt
Research  Methodology  General.pptResearch  Methodology  General.ppt
Research Methodology General.ppt
 
Resin Transfer Molding (RTM)
Resin Transfer Molding (RTM)Resin Transfer Molding (RTM)
Resin Transfer Molding (RTM)
 
Deciding on a medical research topic: your first challenge
Deciding on a medical research topic: your first challengeDeciding on a medical research topic: your first challenge
Deciding on a medical research topic: your first challenge
 
7. Calculate samplesize for clinical trials
7. Calculate samplesize for clinical trials7. Calculate samplesize for clinical trials
7. Calculate samplesize for clinical trials
 
Neural regulation
Neural regulationNeural regulation
Neural regulation
 
Diffusion
DiffusionDiffusion
Diffusion
 

Similar a Problem Solving and Research Methodology: Part-I- Risk Engineering - Excerpts of references:

Change Management In Life
Change Management In LifeChange Management In Life
Change Management In LifeRajesh Patel
 
Mindset presentation currie cluster jan 2015
Mindset presentation currie cluster jan 2015Mindset presentation currie cluster jan 2015
Mindset presentation currie cluster jan 2015curriechs
 
What’s my next move our success in life—and sometimes our survi
What’s my next move our success in life—and sometimes our surviWhat’s my next move our success in life—and sometimes our survi
What’s my next move our success in life—and sometimes our surviSUBHI7
 
151 inspiring life mottos and quotes to live by
151 inspiring life mottos and quotes to live by151 inspiring life mottos and quotes to live by
151 inspiring life mottos and quotes to live byChloe Cheney
 
Self leadership - Leading and Managing Yourself
Self leadership - Leading and Managing YourselfSelf leadership - Leading and Managing Yourself
Self leadership - Leading and Managing YourselfAndre Delicata
 
8 Simple Steps To Solve Problems
8 Simple Steps To Solve Problems8 Simple Steps To Solve Problems
8 Simple Steps To Solve ProblemsYooklunes
 
critical thinking ppt.pdf
critical thinking ppt.pdfcritical thinking ppt.pdf
critical thinking ppt.pdfMamRocilValdez
 
Writing prompts (edited)
Writing prompts (edited)Writing prompts (edited)
Writing prompts (edited)jeshuavictor
 
Some time you win sometime you learn by john maxwell
Some time you win sometime you learn by john maxwellSome time you win sometime you learn by john maxwell
Some time you win sometime you learn by john maxwellFaysal khan
 
Introduction to research methods
Introduction to research methodsIntroduction to research methods
Introduction to research methodsLance Jones
 
GE372: Week Five
GE372: Week FiveGE372: Week Five
GE372: Week FiveComp Class
 
Succeeding thru your failures aises 2014
Succeeding thru your failures   aises 2014Succeeding thru your failures   aises 2014
Succeeding thru your failures aises 2014Steve Lee
 

Similar a Problem Solving and Research Methodology: Part-I- Risk Engineering - Excerpts of references: (20)

Problem-Solving
Problem-SolvingProblem-Solving
Problem-Solving
 
Lecture 3.pptx
Lecture 3.pptxLecture 3.pptx
Lecture 3.pptx
 
Change Management In Life
Change Management In LifeChange Management In Life
Change Management In Life
 
Mindset presentation currie cluster jan 2015
Mindset presentation currie cluster jan 2015Mindset presentation currie cluster jan 2015
Mindset presentation currie cluster jan 2015
 
What’s my next move our success in life—and sometimes our survi
What’s my next move our success in life—and sometimes our surviWhat’s my next move our success in life—and sometimes our survi
What’s my next move our success in life—and sometimes our survi
 
Lateral thinking
Lateral thinkingLateral thinking
Lateral thinking
 
151 inspiring life mottos and quotes to live by
151 inspiring life mottos and quotes to live by151 inspiring life mottos and quotes to live by
151 inspiring life mottos and quotes to live by
 
Critical Thinking
Critical ThinkingCritical Thinking
Critical Thinking
 
Self leadership - Leading and Managing Yourself
Self leadership - Leading and Managing YourselfSelf leadership - Leading and Managing Yourself
Self leadership - Leading and Managing Yourself
 
8 Simple Steps To Solve Problems
8 Simple Steps To Solve Problems8 Simple Steps To Solve Problems
8 Simple Steps To Solve Problems
 
critical thinking ppt.pdf
critical thinking ppt.pdfcritical thinking ppt.pdf
critical thinking ppt.pdf
 
Writing prompts (edited)
Writing prompts (edited)Writing prompts (edited)
Writing prompts (edited)
 
A: Problem Solving Overview
A: Problem Solving OverviewA: Problem Solving Overview
A: Problem Solving Overview
 
Asking Questions
Asking QuestionsAsking Questions
Asking Questions
 
Some time you win sometime you learn by john maxwell
Some time you win sometime you learn by john maxwellSome time you win sometime you learn by john maxwell
Some time you win sometime you learn by john maxwell
 
Unit 3 conflict
Unit 3 conflictUnit 3 conflict
Unit 3 conflict
 
Introduction to research methods
Introduction to research methodsIntroduction to research methods
Introduction to research methods
 
GE372: Week Five
GE372: Week FiveGE372: Week Five
GE372: Week Five
 
Succeeding thru your failures aises 2014
Succeeding thru your failures   aises 2014Succeeding thru your failures   aises 2014
Succeeding thru your failures aises 2014
 
Mindset session handout
Mindset session handoutMindset session handout
Mindset session handout
 

Más de Sanjay Goel

New Generation MTech and MSc Programs at JKLU
New Generation MTech and MSc Programs at JKLUNew Generation MTech and MSc Programs at JKLU
New Generation MTech and MSc Programs at JKLUSanjay Goel
 
Build a Career in Engineering and Technology 19.08.20
Build a Career in Engineering and Technology    19.08.20Build a Career in Engineering and Technology    19.08.20
Build a Career in Engineering and Technology 19.08.20Sanjay Goel
 
Developing and Publishing Academic Products
Developing and PublishingAcademic ProductsDeveloping and PublishingAcademic Products
Developing and Publishing Academic ProductsSanjay Goel
 
CSCW lecture notes, Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2012
CSCW lecture notes, Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2012CSCW lecture notes, Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2012
CSCW lecture notes, Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2012Sanjay Goel
 
HCI lecture notes by Sanjay Goel, JIIT 2012
HCI lecture notes by Sanjay Goel, JIIT 2012HCI lecture notes by Sanjay Goel, JIIT 2012
HCI lecture notes by Sanjay Goel, JIIT 2012Sanjay Goel
 
Image Processing, 2012
Image Processing, 2012Image Processing, 2012
Image Processing, 2012Sanjay Goel
 
Computer Graphics 2004
Computer Graphics 2004Computer Graphics 2004
Computer Graphics 2004Sanjay Goel
 
Advanced Data Structures 2007
Advanced Data Structures 2007Advanced Data Structures 2007
Advanced Data Structures 2007Sanjay Goel
 
Advanced Data Structures 2005
Advanced Data Structures 2005Advanced Data Structures 2005
Advanced Data Structures 2005Sanjay Goel
 
Data Structures problems 2002
Data Structures problems 2002Data Structures problems 2002
Data Structures problems 2002Sanjay Goel
 
Data Structures problems 2006
Data Structures problems 2006Data Structures problems 2006
Data Structures problems 2006Sanjay Goel
 
Data Structures 2007
Data Structures 2007Data Structures 2007
Data Structures 2007Sanjay Goel
 
Data Structures 2005
Data Structures 2005Data Structures 2005
Data Structures 2005Sanjay Goel
 
Data Structures 2004
Data Structures 2004Data Structures 2004
Data Structures 2004Sanjay Goel
 
Preparing Graduate Mindset
Preparing Graduate MindsetPreparing Graduate Mindset
Preparing Graduate MindsetSanjay Goel
 
Multimedia Creation
Multimedia CreationMultimedia Creation
Multimedia CreationSanjay Goel
 
Manuscript digitisation
Manuscript digitisationManuscript digitisation
Manuscript digitisationSanjay Goel
 
An Overview of Selected Learning Theories about Student Learning
An Overview of Selected Learning Theories about  Student  LearningAn Overview of Selected Learning Theories about  Student  Learning
An Overview of Selected Learning Theories about Student LearningSanjay Goel
 
Ph D Presentation
Ph D PresentationPh D Presentation
Ph D PresentationSanjay Goel
 

Más de Sanjay Goel (20)

New Generation MTech and MSc Programs at JKLU
New Generation MTech and MSc Programs at JKLUNew Generation MTech and MSc Programs at JKLU
New Generation MTech and MSc Programs at JKLU
 
Build a Career in Engineering and Technology 19.08.20
Build a Career in Engineering and Technology    19.08.20Build a Career in Engineering and Technology    19.08.20
Build a Career in Engineering and Technology 19.08.20
 
Developing and Publishing Academic Products
Developing and PublishingAcademic ProductsDeveloping and PublishingAcademic Products
Developing and Publishing Academic Products
 
CSCW lecture notes, Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2012
CSCW lecture notes, Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2012CSCW lecture notes, Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2012
CSCW lecture notes, Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2012
 
HCI lecture notes by Sanjay Goel, JIIT 2012
HCI lecture notes by Sanjay Goel, JIIT 2012HCI lecture notes by Sanjay Goel, JIIT 2012
HCI lecture notes by Sanjay Goel, JIIT 2012
 
Image Processing, 2012
Image Processing, 2012Image Processing, 2012
Image Processing, 2012
 
Computer Graphics 2004
Computer Graphics 2004Computer Graphics 2004
Computer Graphics 2004
 
Advanced Data Structures 2007
Advanced Data Structures 2007Advanced Data Structures 2007
Advanced Data Structures 2007
 
Advanced Data Structures 2005
Advanced Data Structures 2005Advanced Data Structures 2005
Advanced Data Structures 2005
 
Data Structures problems 2002
Data Structures problems 2002Data Structures problems 2002
Data Structures problems 2002
 
Data Structures problems 2006
Data Structures problems 2006Data Structures problems 2006
Data Structures problems 2006
 
Data Structures 2007
Data Structures 2007Data Structures 2007
Data Structures 2007
 
Data Structures 2005
Data Structures 2005Data Structures 2005
Data Structures 2005
 
Data Structures 2004
Data Structures 2004Data Structures 2004
Data Structures 2004
 
Preparing Graduate Mindset
Preparing Graduate MindsetPreparing Graduate Mindset
Preparing Graduate Mindset
 
Multimedia Creation
Multimedia CreationMultimedia Creation
Multimedia Creation
 
Manuscript digitisation
Manuscript digitisationManuscript digitisation
Manuscript digitisation
 
An Overview of Selected Learning Theories about Student Learning
An Overview of Selected Learning Theories about  Student  LearningAn Overview of Selected Learning Theories about  Student  Learning
An Overview of Selected Learning Theories about Student Learning
 
Prayag Centre
Prayag CentrePrayag Centre
Prayag Centre
 
Ph D Presentation
Ph D PresentationPh D Presentation
Ph D Presentation
 

Último

HARDNESS, FRACTURE TOUGHNESS AND STRENGTH OF CERAMICS
HARDNESS, FRACTURE TOUGHNESS AND STRENGTH OF CERAMICSHARDNESS, FRACTURE TOUGHNESS AND STRENGTH OF CERAMICS
HARDNESS, FRACTURE TOUGHNESS AND STRENGTH OF CERAMICSRajkumarAkumalla
 
VIP Call Girls Service Hitech City Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
VIP Call Girls Service Hitech City Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130VIP Call Girls Service Hitech City Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
VIP Call Girls Service Hitech City Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130Suhani Kapoor
 
Introduction to IEEE STANDARDS and its different types.pptx
Introduction to IEEE STANDARDS and its different types.pptxIntroduction to IEEE STANDARDS and its different types.pptx
Introduction to IEEE STANDARDS and its different types.pptxupamatechverse
 
KubeKraft presentation @CloudNativeHooghly
KubeKraft presentation @CloudNativeHooghlyKubeKraft presentation @CloudNativeHooghly
KubeKraft presentation @CloudNativeHooghlysanyuktamishra911
 
CCS335 _ Neural Networks and Deep Learning Laboratory_Lab Complete Record
CCS335 _ Neural Networks and Deep Learning Laboratory_Lab Complete RecordCCS335 _ Neural Networks and Deep Learning Laboratory_Lab Complete Record
CCS335 _ Neural Networks and Deep Learning Laboratory_Lab Complete RecordAsst.prof M.Gokilavani
 
(ANVI) Koregaon Park Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(ANVI) Koregaon Park Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...(ANVI) Koregaon Park Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(ANVI) Koregaon Park Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...ranjana rawat
 
APPLICATIONS-AC/DC DRIVES-OPERATING CHARACTERISTICS
APPLICATIONS-AC/DC DRIVES-OPERATING CHARACTERISTICSAPPLICATIONS-AC/DC DRIVES-OPERATING CHARACTERISTICS
APPLICATIONS-AC/DC DRIVES-OPERATING CHARACTERISTICSKurinjimalarL3
 
Software Development Life Cycle By Team Orange (Dept. of Pharmacy)
Software Development Life Cycle By  Team Orange (Dept. of Pharmacy)Software Development Life Cycle By  Team Orange (Dept. of Pharmacy)
Software Development Life Cycle By Team Orange (Dept. of Pharmacy)Suman Mia
 
(SHREYA) Chakan Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pune Esc...
(SHREYA) Chakan Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pune Esc...(SHREYA) Chakan Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pune Esc...
(SHREYA) Chakan Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pune Esc...ranjana rawat
 
Microscopic Analysis of Ceramic Materials.pptx
Microscopic Analysis of Ceramic Materials.pptxMicroscopic Analysis of Ceramic Materials.pptx
Microscopic Analysis of Ceramic Materials.pptxpurnimasatapathy1234
 
IMPLICATIONS OF THE ABOVE HOLISTIC UNDERSTANDING OF HARMONY ON PROFESSIONAL E...
IMPLICATIONS OF THE ABOVE HOLISTIC UNDERSTANDING OF HARMONY ON PROFESSIONAL E...IMPLICATIONS OF THE ABOVE HOLISTIC UNDERSTANDING OF HARMONY ON PROFESSIONAL E...
IMPLICATIONS OF THE ABOVE HOLISTIC UNDERSTANDING OF HARMONY ON PROFESSIONAL E...RajaP95
 
(PRIYA) Rajgurunagar Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(PRIYA) Rajgurunagar Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...(PRIYA) Rajgurunagar Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(PRIYA) Rajgurunagar Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...ranjana rawat
 
Introduction and different types of Ethernet.pptx
Introduction and different types of Ethernet.pptxIntroduction and different types of Ethernet.pptx
Introduction and different types of Ethernet.pptxupamatechverse
 
Call Girls Service Nashik Vaishnavi 7001305949 Independent Escort Service Nashik
Call Girls Service Nashik Vaishnavi 7001305949 Independent Escort Service NashikCall Girls Service Nashik Vaishnavi 7001305949 Independent Escort Service Nashik
Call Girls Service Nashik Vaishnavi 7001305949 Independent Escort Service NashikCall Girls in Nagpur High Profile
 
Introduction to Multiple Access Protocol.pptx
Introduction to Multiple Access Protocol.pptxIntroduction to Multiple Access Protocol.pptx
Introduction to Multiple Access Protocol.pptxupamatechverse
 
MANUFACTURING PROCESS-II UNIT-5 NC MACHINE TOOLS
MANUFACTURING PROCESS-II UNIT-5 NC MACHINE TOOLSMANUFACTURING PROCESS-II UNIT-5 NC MACHINE TOOLS
MANUFACTURING PROCESS-II UNIT-5 NC MACHINE TOOLSSIVASHANKAR N
 
HARMONY IN THE NATURE AND EXISTENCE - Unit-IV
HARMONY IN THE NATURE AND EXISTENCE - Unit-IVHARMONY IN THE NATURE AND EXISTENCE - Unit-IV
HARMONY IN THE NATURE AND EXISTENCE - Unit-IVRajaP95
 

Último (20)

HARDNESS, FRACTURE TOUGHNESS AND STRENGTH OF CERAMICS
HARDNESS, FRACTURE TOUGHNESS AND STRENGTH OF CERAMICSHARDNESS, FRACTURE TOUGHNESS AND STRENGTH OF CERAMICS
HARDNESS, FRACTURE TOUGHNESS AND STRENGTH OF CERAMICS
 
VIP Call Girls Service Hitech City Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
VIP Call Girls Service Hitech City Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130VIP Call Girls Service Hitech City Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
VIP Call Girls Service Hitech City Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
 
DJARUM4D - SLOT GACOR ONLINE | SLOT DEMO ONLINE
DJARUM4D - SLOT GACOR ONLINE | SLOT DEMO ONLINEDJARUM4D - SLOT GACOR ONLINE | SLOT DEMO ONLINE
DJARUM4D - SLOT GACOR ONLINE | SLOT DEMO ONLINE
 
Introduction to IEEE STANDARDS and its different types.pptx
Introduction to IEEE STANDARDS and its different types.pptxIntroduction to IEEE STANDARDS and its different types.pptx
Introduction to IEEE STANDARDS and its different types.pptx
 
KubeKraft presentation @CloudNativeHooghly
KubeKraft presentation @CloudNativeHooghlyKubeKraft presentation @CloudNativeHooghly
KubeKraft presentation @CloudNativeHooghly
 
CCS335 _ Neural Networks and Deep Learning Laboratory_Lab Complete Record
CCS335 _ Neural Networks and Deep Learning Laboratory_Lab Complete RecordCCS335 _ Neural Networks and Deep Learning Laboratory_Lab Complete Record
CCS335 _ Neural Networks and Deep Learning Laboratory_Lab Complete Record
 
(ANVI) Koregaon Park Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(ANVI) Koregaon Park Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...(ANVI) Koregaon Park Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(ANVI) Koregaon Park Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
 
APPLICATIONS-AC/DC DRIVES-OPERATING CHARACTERISTICS
APPLICATIONS-AC/DC DRIVES-OPERATING CHARACTERISTICSAPPLICATIONS-AC/DC DRIVES-OPERATING CHARACTERISTICS
APPLICATIONS-AC/DC DRIVES-OPERATING CHARACTERISTICS
 
Roadmap to Membership of RICS - Pathways and Routes
Roadmap to Membership of RICS - Pathways and RoutesRoadmap to Membership of RICS - Pathways and Routes
Roadmap to Membership of RICS - Pathways and Routes
 
Software Development Life Cycle By Team Orange (Dept. of Pharmacy)
Software Development Life Cycle By  Team Orange (Dept. of Pharmacy)Software Development Life Cycle By  Team Orange (Dept. of Pharmacy)
Software Development Life Cycle By Team Orange (Dept. of Pharmacy)
 
(SHREYA) Chakan Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pune Esc...
(SHREYA) Chakan Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pune Esc...(SHREYA) Chakan Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pune Esc...
(SHREYA) Chakan Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pune Esc...
 
Microscopic Analysis of Ceramic Materials.pptx
Microscopic Analysis of Ceramic Materials.pptxMicroscopic Analysis of Ceramic Materials.pptx
Microscopic Analysis of Ceramic Materials.pptx
 
IMPLICATIONS OF THE ABOVE HOLISTIC UNDERSTANDING OF HARMONY ON PROFESSIONAL E...
IMPLICATIONS OF THE ABOVE HOLISTIC UNDERSTANDING OF HARMONY ON PROFESSIONAL E...IMPLICATIONS OF THE ABOVE HOLISTIC UNDERSTANDING OF HARMONY ON PROFESSIONAL E...
IMPLICATIONS OF THE ABOVE HOLISTIC UNDERSTANDING OF HARMONY ON PROFESSIONAL E...
 
(PRIYA) Rajgurunagar Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(PRIYA) Rajgurunagar Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...(PRIYA) Rajgurunagar Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(PRIYA) Rajgurunagar Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
 
Introduction and different types of Ethernet.pptx
Introduction and different types of Ethernet.pptxIntroduction and different types of Ethernet.pptx
Introduction and different types of Ethernet.pptx
 
★ CALL US 9953330565 ( HOT Young Call Girls In Badarpur delhi NCR
★ CALL US 9953330565 ( HOT Young Call Girls In Badarpur delhi NCR★ CALL US 9953330565 ( HOT Young Call Girls In Badarpur delhi NCR
★ CALL US 9953330565 ( HOT Young Call Girls In Badarpur delhi NCR
 
Call Girls Service Nashik Vaishnavi 7001305949 Independent Escort Service Nashik
Call Girls Service Nashik Vaishnavi 7001305949 Independent Escort Service NashikCall Girls Service Nashik Vaishnavi 7001305949 Independent Escort Service Nashik
Call Girls Service Nashik Vaishnavi 7001305949 Independent Escort Service Nashik
 
Introduction to Multiple Access Protocol.pptx
Introduction to Multiple Access Protocol.pptxIntroduction to Multiple Access Protocol.pptx
Introduction to Multiple Access Protocol.pptx
 
MANUFACTURING PROCESS-II UNIT-5 NC MACHINE TOOLS
MANUFACTURING PROCESS-II UNIT-5 NC MACHINE TOOLSMANUFACTURING PROCESS-II UNIT-5 NC MACHINE TOOLS
MANUFACTURING PROCESS-II UNIT-5 NC MACHINE TOOLS
 
HARMONY IN THE NATURE AND EXISTENCE - Unit-IV
HARMONY IN THE NATURE AND EXISTENCE - Unit-IVHARMONY IN THE NATURE AND EXISTENCE - Unit-IV
HARMONY IN THE NATURE AND EXISTENCE - Unit-IV
 

Problem Solving and Research Methodology: Part-I- Risk Engineering - Excerpts of references:

  • 1. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb Problem Solving and Research Methodology Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014 Lecture Notes: Excerpts and Summary of References- Part I: Risk Engineering 1. 13.01.14 People who don’t take risks generally make about two big mistakes a year. People who do take risks generally make about two big mistakes a year. —Peter Drucker Risk by Michelle Mckee There are no guarantees Life throws things at you You can catch or miss them But they will come, ready or not I always looked for the real thing Never trusting in the possibility Risk-taking not my forte Staying safe at all costs Even playing it safe is not certain Safe has hurt me Zero risk gets zero gain Sometimes playing it safe costs you more It has me, In not fighting the battle you may lose the war In not believing in a dream You may never sleep peacefully again So let go of the fear Reach out for the flame So what if you get burned Better that then numb for life Better to remember passion and joy Along with the pain and tears Then to have no memories worth Remembering So to hell with safe I am going to gamble and bet Until I win back everything I lost And my life is what it was meant to be
  • 2. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb Take Risks by William Arthur Ward To laugh is to risk appearing the fool To weep is to risk being called sentimental To reach out to another is to risk involvement To expose feelings is to risk showing your true self To place your ideas and your dreams before the crowd is to risk being called naïve To love is to risk not being loved in return To live is to risk dying To hope is to risk despair and, To try is to risk failure But risks must be taken The greatest risk in life is to risk nothing The person who risks nothing... does nothing, has nothing, and becomes nothing He may avoid suffering and sorrow But he simply cannot learn and feel and change and grow and love and live Chained by his servitude, he is a slave He has forfeited his freedom Only the person who risks is truly free. Problem Solving: Some Selected Pearls of Wisdom 1. Problem is a situation for which there isn’t an evident solution.-- Pérez et al. 2. Leaders are problem solvers by talent and temperament, and by choice.-- Harlan Cleveland 3. Creating something is all about problem-solving.--Philip Seymour Hoffman 4. The problems of the world cannot possibly be solved by skeptics or cynics whose horizons are limited by obvious realities. We need men and women who can dream of things that never were. - John F. Kennedy 5. We only think when we are confronted with problems. - John Dewey 6. No problem can withstand the assault of sustained thinking. – Voltaire 7. The problem is not that there are problems. The problem is expecting otherwise and thinking that having problems is a problem. — Theodore Rubin 8. The most serious mistakes are not being made as a result of wrong answers. The truly dangerous thing is asking the wrong questions. — Peter Drucker 9. If you only have a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail.---Abraham Maslow 10. The biggest problem in the world could have been solved when it was small. - Witter Bynner 11. Erroneous assumptions can be disastrous. — Peter Drucker 12. Drowning problems in an ocean of information is not the same as solving them. - Ray E. Brown 13. The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them –Einstein 14. It's not that I'm so smart; it's just that I stay with problems longer. –Einstein 15. If I had an hour to solve a problem I'd spend 55 minutes thinking about the problem and 5 minutes thinking about solutions.― Einstein 16. The formulation of the problem is often more essential than its solution, which may be merely a matter of mathematical or experimental skill.― Einstein 17. Every problem has in it the seeds of its own solution. If you don't have any problems, you don't get any seeds. - Norman Vincent Peale 18. Few can really understand the problem, the answer will come out of it, because the answer is not separate from the problem.--Krishnamurti
  • 3. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb 19. The only difference between a problem and a solution is that people understand the solution. - Dorothea Brande 20. When a problem comes along, study it until you are completely knowledgeable. Then find that weak spot, break the problem apart, and the rest will be easy. - Norman Vincent Peale 21. A problem clearly stated is a problem half solved. - Dorothea Brande 22. To solve any problem, here are three questions to ask yourself: First, what could I do? Second, what could I read? And third, who could I ask? - Jim Rohn 23. If you do not ask the right questions, you do not get the right answers. A question asked in the right way often points to its own answer. Asking questions is the A-B-C of diagnosis. Only the inquiring mind solves problems. - Edward Hodnett 24. No problem can be solved until it is reduced to some simple form. The changing of a vague difficulty into a specific, concrete form is a very essential element in thinking. - J. P. Morgan 25. When I'm working on a problem, I never think about beauty. I think only how to solve the problem. But when I have finished, if the solution is not beautiful, I know it is wrong." - R. Buckminster Fuller 26. When the solution is simple, God is answering.--Albert Einstein 27. Science is always wrong, it never solves a problem without creating ten more. - George Bernard Shaw 28. The solution to a problem changes the nature of the problem.--John Peers 29. If you get stuck, get away from your desk. Take a walk, take a bath, go to sleep, make a pie, draw, listen to music, meditate, exercise; whatever you do, don't just stick there scowling at the problem. But don't make telephone calls or go to a party; if you do, other people's words will pour in where your lost words should be. Open a gap for them, create a space. Be patient.― Hilary Mantel 30. It is well known that "problem avoidance" is an important part of problem solving. Instead of solving the problem you go upstream and alter the system so that the problem does not occur in the first place.--Edward de Bono 31. Our tendency to create heroes rarely jibes with the reality that most nontrivial problems require collective solutions.--Warren Bennis 32. Recognizing a problem is the first step to solving it... Some problems cannot be solved but you can make peace with them.--Sanya Friedman
  • 4. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb 2,3. 14.01.14 Ref#1: Jonassen, David, Johannes Strobel, and Chwee Beng Lee. "Everyday problem solving in engineering: Lessons for engineering educators." JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING EDUCATION-WASHINGTON- 95, no. 2 (2006): 139. Everyday problem solving in engineering workplace 1. Workplace problems are ill structured 2. Ill structured problems include aggregates of well structured problems. 3. Ill structured problems have multiple, often conflicting goals 4. Ill structured problems are solved in many different ways 5. Success is rarely measured by engineering standards: Time budget, legal, regulatory, environmental etc. 6. Most constraints are non-engineering: budget, schedule, functionality, brand, jobs, tasks, tools, , acceptability to citizens, political constraints, regulations, environmental, permits, cultural, communication etc. 7. Problem solving knowledge is distributed among team members (and also institutional knowledge found in several organisations, regulatory bodies, and support systems) 8. Most problems require extensive collaboration 9. Engineers primarily rely on experiential knowledge 10. Engineering problems often encounter unanticipated problems 11. Engineers use multiple forms of problem representation 12. Engineers recommend more communication skills in engineering curricula: more instruction on client interaction, collaboration, making oral presentations, and writing, as well as the ability to deal with ambiguity and complexity.
  • 5. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb Ref#2: David H. Jonassen, Toward a design theory of problem solving, Educational Technology Research and Development, Volume 48, Number 4, Springer Boston, pp 63-85, December, 2000. Ref#3: Linda S. Gottfredson, Dissecting practical intelligence theory: Its claims and evidence Intelligence Volume 31, Issue 4, Elsevier, July-August 2003 , 2003. Academic Problems Real life practical problems 1. Tend to be formulated by other people 2. Well-defined or well-structured 3. Tend to be complete. Presented with all the parameters and constraints. Usually consist of a well-defined initial state, a known goal state, and a constrained set of logical operators. 4. Typically posses only a single answer 5. Tend to encourage single method of obtaining a correct answer 6. Require application of a finite number of concepts, rules, and principles 7. Divorced from ordinary experience 8. Tend to be of little or no intrinsic interest 1 Require (re)formulation. 2 Ill-defined or ill-structured 3 Require information seeking. One or more elements of the ill-defined problem are unknown or not known with certainty. The goals of real- life practical problems are usually vaguely defined with unstated constraints. 4 Usually possess multiple acceptable solutions. 5 Allow multiple paths to solution. 6 Present uncertainty about useful and usable concepts, rules, and principles as well. Further, in case of ill-defined problems, the relationships between concepts, rules, and principles may be inconsistent between cases. 7 Embedded in and require prior experience. This requires the problem solver of ill-structured problem to distinguish important from irrelevant, and construct a problem space for generating solutions. 8 Require motivation and personal involvement
  • 6. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb Ref#4: David H. Jonassen, Toward a design theory of problem solving, Educational Technology Research and Development, Volume 48, Number 4, Springer Boston, pp 63-85, December, 2000  Finding the unknown is the process of problem solving.  any goal-directed sequence of cognitive operations o Requires the mental representation of the situation- multimodal problem space comprises of:  Structural knowledge (all the essential parts, states, or actions encountered in the problem and the relationship between them at an appropriate level of detail),  Procedural knowledge (how to perform procedures and test activities), reflective knowledge, images and metaphors of the system, and executive/ strategic knowledge (e.g. search and replace, serial elimination, and space splitting)  May be externalized through a variety of Knowledge representation and modeling tools. o Requires some activity-based manipulation of the problem space.  Problem type variations o Structured-ness: well structured  ill structured o Complexity  how many, how clearly, and how reliably components (issues, functions, variables, connections, and relations) are represented implicitly or explicitly  Most complex problems are dynamic – task environment and factors change over time. o Domain specificity: Abstract  Situated  Representation variation – fidelity of representation o Use of artificial symbol systems o Is the problem represented in its natural complexity and modality, or is it filtered when simulated? Should social pressures and time constraints be represented faithfully? i.e., does the problem have to be solved in real time, or can it be solved in leisure time? What levels of cooperation or competition are represented in the problem? 4. 20.01.14: Examples of non-engineering constraints: budget, schedule, functionality, brand, jobs, tasks, tools, , acceptability to citizens, political constraints, regulations, environmental, permits, cultural, communication etc. Examples of unanticipated problems
  • 7. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb 5,6. 21.01.14: *Understanding failures is critical to engineering success*, *Engineering – A profession for managing technical risks*, *Engineering is Risk Engineering* Ref#5: Gluch, David, "A Construct for Describing Software Development Risks" (1994). Software Engineering Institute. Paper 118. • A problem involves a value judgment made upon the merits of the current condition. It is a condition that exists and is undesirable. • A risk involves a value judgment made upon the potential implications of the current condition. It suggests a possible, future undesirable condition (consequence). Many problems are risks themselves in that they may lead to more serious symptoms or other problems and diminished success (loss) for the program. A difference between a problem and a risk is a matter of degree – the extent to which the program is being adversely affected -- and time. The conditions of a problem are more noticeably affecting the program now. A risk, which is also a problem, involves a condition that has a noticeable adverse effect on the program now, but also is perceived to portend additional or more serious problems in the future. I. Impact Analysis (Ref#6: Mindtools.com): explore possible positive and negative consequences of a change on different parts of a system or organization. II.All Hazard Risk Assessment Methodology, (Ref#7: Canada Govt., http://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/prg/em/emp/2012- ahra/index-eng.aspx) a. Adaptive/Malicious Threats: Intentional Threats; Criminal: Terrorist Act, Extremist Act, Individual Criminal Act, Organised Crime, Corporate/Insider Sabotage, Corporate Espionage. Foreign State: State-Sponsored Terrorism, Espionage, Act of War. b. Non-Malicious Threats/Hazards: Social: Migration, Social Unrest/Civil Disobedience. Technical/Accidental: Spill, Fire, Explosion, Structural Collapse, System Error(s) Yielding Failure. Health Threats/Hazards: Pandemics/Epidemics:, Human Health Related, Animal Health Related Large-Scale Contamination: Drugs and Health Products Contaminant, Food/Water/Air Contaminant, Environment Contaminant.
  • 8. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb Emerging Phenomena & Technologies: Biological Science & Technology, Health Sciences, (Re) emerging Health Hazards, Chemical Compounds, Emerging Natural Hazard(s), Material Science & Engineering, Information Technologies c. Natural Threats/Hazards: Meteorological: Hurricane, Tornado/Wind Storm, Hail/Snow/ Ice Storm, Flood/Storm Surge, Avalanche, Forest Fire, Drought, Extreme Temperatures. Geological: Tsunami, Earthquake, Volcanic Eruption, Land/Mudslide, Land Subsidence, Glacier/Iceberg Effects, Space Weather. Ecological/Global Phenomena: Infestations, Effects of Over-Exploitation, Effects of Excessive Urbanisation, Global Warming, Extreme Climate Change Conditions. III. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) (Ref#8: Mindtools.com): ―What could go wrong‖ - reviewing existing processes or systems, so that problems with these can be identified and eliminated. a. Start by looking in detail at the proposed solution b. Identify systematically all of the points where it could fail. c. Rate the potential consequences of each according to: a. Severity – how critical is the failure? b. Occurrence – how likely is the failure to happen? c. Detection – how easy will it be to detect the failure? d. Using these rankings, identify the most serious threats e. Alter the design to eliminate or minimize the likelihood of identified failure. f. Repeat the process IV. Risk Analysis Process (Ref#9: Mindtools.com): identify and manage potential problems 1st line of defense- Avoid or eliminate failure causes 2nd line of defense – Detect and control failure early 3rd line of defense – reduce impact/consequence of the failure a. Identify Threats: identify the existing and possible threats: (understanding the limitations of design)  Human - from illness, death, injury, or other loss of a key individual.  Operational - from disruption to supplies and operations, loss of access to essential assets, or failures in distribution.  Reputational - from loss of customer or employee confidence, or damage to market reputation.  Procedural - from failures of accountability, internal systems and controls; or from fraud.  Project - from going over budget, taking too long on key tasks, or experiencing issues with product or service quality.  Financial - from business failure, stock market fluctuations, interest rate changes, or non- availability of funding.  Technical - from advances in technology, or from technical failure.  Natural - from weather, natural disasters, or disease.  Political - from changes in tax, public opinion, government policy, or foreign influence.  Structural - from dangerous chemicals, poor lighting, falling boxes, or any situation where staff/ products/ technology can be harmed.
  • 9. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb b. Estimate Risk  Risk Value = Probability of Event x Cost of Event c. Manage Risk  Using existing assets - reusing or redeploying existing equipment, improving existing methods and systems, changing people's responsibilities, improving accountability and internal controls, choosing different materials, by improving safety procedures or safety gear, or by adding a layer of security.  Developing a contingency plan - you accept a risk, but develop a plan to minimize its effects if it happens. A good contingency plan will allow you to take action immediately, and with the minimum of project control, if you find yourself in a crisis.  Investing in new resources - include insuring the risk  Procedural prevention plan - activities that need to take place every day, week, month, or year to monitor or mitigate the risks you've identified. For example, daily backup of computer files, yearly testing of your building's sprinkler system, or a monthly check on your organization's security system. (Ref#10: Williams, Ray C., George J. Pandelios, and Sandra G. Behrens. Software Risk Evaluation (SRE) Method Description: Version 2.0. Carnegie Mellon University, Software Engineering Institute, 1999 Ref#11: arr, Marvin J., Suresh L. Konda, Ira Monarch, F. Carol Ulrich, and Clay F. Walker. Taxonomy-based risk identification. No. CMU/SEI-93-TR-06. Carnegie-Mellon Univ Pittsburgh Pa Software Engineering Inst, 1993) SEI Risk Management Paradigm) - Balance the possible negative consequences of risk against the potential benefits of its associated opportunity. - Project risks change over time in both characteristics (probability, impact, time frame) and content — i.e., the risk of yesterday could be the problem of today or cease to be a risk altogether, and new risks could arise. Element Purpose Identify Make all known project risks explicit before they become problems Analyze Transform risk data into decision-making information Plan Translate risk information into decisions and mitigating actions (both present and future) and implement those actions Track Monitor risk indicators and mitigation actions Control Correct for deviations from the risk mitigation plans Communicate Enable the sharing of all information throughout the project and is the cornerstone of effective risk management A 2.5 hour session generates 15-40 risk statements. The risk statement is the product of the risk interview step and consists of • A condition: something that is true or accepted as true • A separator: a semicolon, arrow, or linking phrase • A consequence: something that may occur as a result of the condition
  • 10. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
  • 11. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb SEI Software Development Risk Taxonomy (Ref#12: CMU/SEI-93-TR-6, 1993) A. Product Engineering B. Development Environment C. Program Constraints 1. Requirements Are there risks that may arise from requirements being placed on the product? a. Stability b. Completeness c. Clarity d. Validity e. Feasibility f. Precedent g. Scale 1. Development Process a. Formality b. Suitability c. Process Control d. Familiarity e. Product Control 1. Resources a. Schedule b. Staff c. Budget d. Facilities 2. Design a. Functionality b. Difficulty c. Interfaces d. Performance e. Testability f. Hardware Constraints g. Non-Developmental Software 2. Development System a. Capacity b. Suitability c. Usability d. Familiarity e. Reliability f. System Support g. Deliverability 2. Contract a. Type of Contract b. Restrictions c. Dependencies 3. Code and Unit Test a. Feasibility b. Testing c. Coding/Implementation 3. Management Process a. Planning b. Project Organization c. Management Experience d. Program Interfaces 3. Program Interfaces a. Customer b. Associate Contractors c. Subcontractors d. Prime Contractor e. Corporate Management f. Vendors g. Politics 4. Integration and Test a. Environment b. Product c. System 4. Management Methods a. Monitoring b. Personnel Management c. Quality Assurance d. Configuration Management 5. Engineering Specialties a. Maintainability b. Reliability c. Safety d. Security e. Human Factors f. Specifications 5. Work Environment a. Quality Attitude b. Cooperation c. Communication d. Morale Ref#13: Lawrence, Brian, Karl Wiegers, and Christof Ebert. "The top risk of requirements engineering." Software, IEEE 18, no. 6 (2001): 62-63. a. Overlooking a crucial requirement- functional or attribute (quality or performance) b. Inadequate customer representation c. Modelling only functional requirements – ignoring quality attributes (reliability, performance, security, robustness, ease of use; scalability, innovation, coolness, or fun). d. Not inspecting requirements e. Attempting to perfect requirements before beginning construction f. Representing requirements in the form of designs.
  • 12. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb Taxonomy Based Questions (TBQ) wrt Requirements: Quality of req. specs & implementation difficulty (Ref#12: CMU/SEI-93-TR-6, 1993) a. Stability: Are requirements changing during product development? [1] Are the requirements stable? (No) (1.a) What is the effect on the system - Quality/ Functionality/ Schedule/ Integration/ Design/ Testing? [2] Are the external interfaces changing? b. Completeness: Are requirements missing or incompletely specified? [3] Are there any TBDs in the specifications? [4] Are there reqs. you know should be in the specification but aren‘t? (Yes) (4.a) Will you be able to get these requirements into the system? [5] Does the customer have unwritten requirements/expectations? (Yes) (5.a) Is there a way to capture these requirements? [6] Are the external interfaces completely defined? c. Clarity: Are requirements unclear or in need of interpretation? [7] Are you able to understand the requirements as written? (No) (7.a) Are the ambiguities being resolved satisfactorily? (Yes) (7.b) There are no ambiguities or problems of interpretation? d. Validity: Will the reqs. lead to the product the customer has in mind? [8] Are there any requirements that may not specify what the customer really wants? (Yes) (8.a) How are you resolving this? [9] Do you and the customer understand the same thing by the requirements? (Yes) (9.a) Is there a process by which to determine this? [10] How do you validate the requirements? Prototyping/Analysis/ Simulations e. Feasibility: Are requirements infeasible from an analytical point of view? [11] Are there any requirements that are technically difficult to implement? (Yes) (11.a) What are they? (Yes) (11.b) Why are they difficult to implement? (No) (11.c) Were feasibility studies done for these requirements? (Yes) (11.c.1) How confident are you of the assumptions made in the studies? f. Precedent: Do requirements specify something never done before, or that your company has not done before? [12] Are there any state-of-the-art requirements - Technologies/ Methods/ Languages/ Hardware (No) (12.a) Are any of these new to you? (Yes) (12.b) Does the program have sufficient knowledge in these areas? (No) (12.b.1) Is there a plan for acquiring knowledge in these areas? g. Scale: Do requirements specify a product larger, more complex, or requiring a larger organization than in the experience of the company? [13] Is the system size and complexity a concern? (No) (13.a) Have you done something of this size and complexity before? [14] Does the size require a larger organization than usual for your company?
  • 13. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb Taxonomy Based Questions (TBQ) wrt Design: Design & feasibility of algorithms/functions, performance requirements, and internal and external product interfaces. Difficulty in testing begins here. (Ref#12: CMU/SEI-93-TR-6, 1993) a. Functionality: Are there any potential problems in meeting functionality requirements? [15] Are there any specified algorithms that may not satisfy the requirements? (No) (15.a) Are any of the algorithms or designs marginal with respect to meeting requirements? [16] How do you determine the feasibility of algorithms and designs? - Prototyping/ Modeling/ Analysis/ Simulation b. Difficulty: Will the design and/or implementation be difficult to achieve? [17] Does any of the design depend on unrealistic or optimistic assumptions? [18] Are there any requirements or functions that are difficult to design? (No) (18.a) Do you have solutions for all the requirements? (Yes) (18.b) What are the requirements? • Why are they difficult? c. Interfaces: Are the internal interfaces (hardware and software) well defined and controlled? [19] Are the internal interfaces well defined? - Software-to-software & Software-to-hardware [20] Is there a process for defining internal interfaces? (Yes) (20.a) Is there a change control process for internal interfaces? [21] Is hardware being developed in parallel with software? (Yes) (21.a) Are the hardware specifications changing? (Yes) (21.b) Have all the interfaces to software been defined? (Yes) (21.c) Will there be engineering design models that can be used to test the software? d. Performance: Are there stringent response time or throughput requirements? [22] Are there any problems with performance? - Throughput, Scheduling asynchronous real-time events, Real-time response, Recovery timelines, Response time, Database response, contention, or access [23] Has a performance analysis been done? (Yes) (23.a) What is your level of confidence in the performance analysis? (Yes) (23.b) Do you have a model to track performance through design and implementation? e. Testability: Is the product difficult or impossible to test? [24] Is the software going to be easy to test? [25] Does the design include features to aid testing? [26] Do the testers get involved in analyzing requirements? f. Hardware Constraints: Are there tight constraints on the target hardware? [27] Does the hardware limit your ability to meet any requirements? - Architecture, Memory capacity, Throughput, Real-time response, Response time, Recovery timelines, Database performance, Functionality, Reliability, Availability g. Non-Developmental Software: Are there problems with software used in the program but not developed by the program? If re-used or re-engineered software exists [28] Are you reusing or re-engineering software not developed on the program? (Yes) (28.a) Do you foresee any problems? - Documentation, Performance, Functionality, Timely delivery, Customization If COTS software is being used [29] Are there any problems with using COTS (commercial off-the-shelf) software? • Insufficient documentation to determine interfaces, size, or performance; Poor performance; Requires a large share of memory or database storage; Difficult to interface with application software; Not thoroughly tested; Not bug free; Not maintained adequately; Slow vendor response [30] Do you foresee any problem with integrating COTS software updates or revisions?
  • 14. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb 7. 27.01.14: Ref#14: Karl E Wiegers; Joy Beatty, Ch 32: Software Requirements and Risk Management, Software Requirements, 3rd Edition, Microsoft Press, 2013 Risk Item tracking template
  • 15. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb Sample Risk item from the chemical tracking system 8,9. 28.01.14: Ref#15: Westfall, Linda. "Software Risk Management." In Annual Quality Congress Proceedings-American Society For Quality Control, pp. 32-39. ASQ; 1999, 2000. Project Management Risk Management Designed to address general or generic risks Designed to focus on risks unique to each project Looks at the big picture and plans for details Looks at potential problems and plans for contingencies Plans what should happen and looks for ways to make it happen Evaluates what could happen and looks for ways to minimize the damage Plans for success Plans to manage and mitigate potential causes of failure Types of risks for software projects: Technical risks problems with languages, project size, project functionality, platforms, methods, standards, or processes. May result from excessive constraints, lack of experience, poorly defined parameters, or dependencies on organizations outside the direct control of the project team.
  • 16. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb Management risks: lack of planning, lack of management experience and training, communications problems, organizational issues, lack of authority, and control problems. Financial risks include cash flow, capital and budgetary issues, and return on investment constraints. Contractual and legal risks include changing requirements, market-driven schedules, health & safety issues, government regulation, and product warranty issues. Personnel risks staffing lags, experience/training problems, ethical and moral issues, staff conflicts, productivity issues. Other resource risks include unavailability or late delivery of equipment & supplies, inadequate tools, inadequate facilities, distributed locations, unavailability of comp uter resources, and slow response times. Techniques for identifying risks:  Interviewing/Brainstorming: interviewing or brainstorming with project personnel, customers, and vendors. Open-ended questions, e.g., What new or improved technologies does this project implement? What interfaces issues still need to be defined? What requirements exist that we aren‘t sure how to implement? What concerns do we have about our ability to meet the required quality and performance levels?  Voluntary Reporting: any individual who identifies a risk is encouraged and rewarded for bringing that risk to management‘s attention. This requires the complete elimination of the ―shoot the messenger‖ syndrome. It avoids the temptation to assign risk reduction actions to the person who identified the risk. Risks can also be identified through required reporting mechanisms such as status reports or project reviews.  Decomposition: As the product is being decomposed during the requirements and design phases, another opportunity exists for risk identifications. Every TBD ("To Be Done/Determined") is a potential risk. ―The most important thing about planning is writing down what you don’t know, because what you don‘t know is what you must find out‖ [Ould-90]. Decomposition in the form of work breakdown structures during project planning can also help identify areas of uncertainty that may need to be recorded as risks.  Assumption Analysis: Process and product assumptions must be analyzed. For example, we might assume the hardware would be available by the system test date or three additional experienced C++ programmers will be hired by the time coding starts. If these assumptions prove to be false, we could have major problems.  Critical Path Analysis: As we perform critical path analysis for our project plan, we must remain on the alert to identify risks. Any possibility of schedule slippage on the critical path must be considered a risk because it directly impacts our ability to meet schedule.  Risk Taxonomies: Risk taxonomies are lists of problems that have occurred on other projects and can be used as checklists to help ensure all potential risks have been considered, e.g., Software Engineering Institute‘s Taxonomy -Based Risk Identification report that covers 13 major risk areas with about 200 questions.
  • 17. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb Risk Analysis: each risk is assessed to determine:  Likelihood: the probability that the risk will result in a loss  Impact: the size or cost of that loss if the risk turns into a problem  Timeframe: when the risk needs to be addressed, i.e., risk associated with activities in the near future would have a higher priority than similar risks in later activities.  Risk Exposure (RE) = Probability(of UO) * Loss (because UO), where UO = Unexpected outcome Avoiding: Avoiding risk may mean avoiding opportunities; Not all risks can be avoided; Avoiding risk in one part of the project may create risks in other parts. Getting more information: prototyping, modeling, simulation, research Transfer: pay someone to take care of all the risks, subcontracting, outsourcing, build penalties for contractors, pass extra charges/late deliveries for customers, insurance, partnership, joint venture, Risk reduction actions: actions to reduce the probability/impact, e.g., performance simulation, liaison with customer, test bed to duplicate the operational environment, alpha testing at contractor‘s site, periodic defect reports, reschedule some task, adjust the budget. Take risk reduction action n, if RRL (Risk Reduction Leverage) = (REbefore – REafter) > Risk Reduction cost Contingency plan: implemented if risk actually turn into a problem, e.g., disaster recovery plans, backup staff. Risk must be assigned triggers - Early trigger, contingency plan trigger
  • 18. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb Ref#16: Fuller, Anne, Peter Croll, and Limei Di. "A new approach to teaching software risk management with case studies." In Software Engineering Education and Training, 2002.(CSEE&T 2002). Proceedings. 15th Conference on, pp. 215-222. IEEE, 2002.
  • 19. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb Ref#17: Odzaly, Edzreena Edza, Des Greer, and Paul Sage. "Software risk management barriers: An empirical study." In Empirical Software Engineering and Measurement, 2009. ESEM 2009. 3rd International Symposium on, pp. 418-421. IEEE, 2009.
  • 20. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb Ref#18: Risk Management Guidelines Companion to AS/NZS 4360:2004, Standards Australia/Standards New Zealand
  • 21. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
  • 22. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb 10. 03.02.14: Ref#19: Risk Management Guidelines Companion to AS/NZS 4360:2004, Standards Australia/Standards New Zealand 1. Consequence- outcome or impact of an event. (>=1, +ve/-ve, expressed as quantitative/qualitative, considered in relation to achievement of objectives) 2. Control- an existing process, policy, device, practice or other action that acts to minimize - ve risk or enhance positive opportunities. 3. Control assessment- systematic review of processes to ensure that controls are still effective and appropriate 4. Event- occurrence of a particular set of circumstances, (certain/uncertain; single occurrence/series of occurrence.) 5. Frequency- measure of the number of occurrences per unit of time. 6. Hazard- a source of potential harm 7. Likelihood- general description of probability or frequency, expressed qualitatively or quantitatively. 8. Loss- any -ve consequence or adverse effect, financial or otherwise 9. Monitor- to check, supervise, observe critically or measure the progress of an activity, action or system on a regular basis in order to identify change from the performance level required or expected 10. Residual risk- risk remaining after implementation of risk treatment 11. Risk - chance of something happening that will have a -ve/+ve impact on objectives. {events/ circumstances consequences} Components of a risk a. A source of risk or hazard – the thing which has the intrinsic potential to harm or assist e.g. a dangerous chemical, competitors, government. b. An event or incident – something that occurs such that the source of risk has the impact concerned e.g. a leak, competitor expands into or leaves your market area, new or revised regulations, or some measure or observation reaching a particular trigger level. c. A consequence, outcome or impact on a range of stakeholders and assets e.g. environmental damage, loss or increase of market/profits, regulations increase or decrease competitiveness. d. A cause (what and why) (usually a string of direct and underlying causes) for the presence of the hazard or the event occurring e.g. design, human intervention, funding, prediction or failure to predict competitor activity, failure to or expansion of market presence. e. Controls and their level of effectiveness e.g. detection systems, clean up systems, policies, security, training, market research and surveillance of market. f. When could the risk occur and where could it occur. 12. Risk analysis- systematic process to understand the nature of and to deduce the level of risk 13. Risk assessment- risk identification+ risk analysis, + risk evaluation 14. Risk avoidance- a decision not to become involved in, or to withdraw from, a risk situation 15. Risk criteria- terms of reference by which the significance of risk is assessed, can include associated cost and benefits, legal and statutory requirements, socioeconomic and environmental aspects, the concerns of stakeholders, priorities and other inputs to the assessment 16. Risk evaluation- process of comparing the level of risk against risk criteria, assists in decisions about risk treatment. 17. Risk identification- process of determining what, where, when, why and how something could happen
  • 23. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb 18. Risk management framework- set of elements of an organization‘s management system concerned with managing risk 19. Risk management process - the systematic application of management policies, procedures and practices to the tasks of communicating, establishing the context, identifying, and analysing, evaluating, treating, monitoring and reviewing risk 20. Risk management- the culture, processes and structures that are directed towards realizing potential opportunities whilst managing adverse effects to identify change from the performance level required or expected 21. Risk reduction- actions taken to lessen the likelihood, negative consequences, or both, associated with a risk 22. Risk retention- acceptance of the burden of loss, or benefit of gain, from a particular Risk, includes the acceptance of risks that have not been identified, level of risk retained may depend on risk criteria 23. Risk sharing- sharing with another party the burden of loss, or benefit of gain from a particular risk. Legal or statutory requirements can limit, prohibit or mandate the sharing of some risks. Risk sharing can be carried out through insurance or other agreements. Risk sharing can create new risks or modify an existing risk. 24. Risk treatment- process of selection and implementation of measures to modify risk, sometimes used for the measures themselves, can include avoiding, modifying, sharing or retaining risk. 25. Stakeholders- those people and organizations who may affect, be affected by, or perceive themselves to be affected by a decision, activity or risk, may also include ‗interested parties‘.
  • 24. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb Decision making issues for selecting options for Risk treatment Acceptability- Is the option likely to be accepted by relevant stakeholders? Administrative efficiency- Is this option easy to implement or will it be neglected because of difficulty of administration or lack of expertise? Compatibility- How compatible is the treatment with others that may be adopted? Continuity of effects- Will the effects be continuous or only short term? Will the effects of this option be sustainable? At what cost? Cost effectiveness- Is it cost-effective; could the same results be achieved at lower cost by other means? Economic and social effects- What will be the economic and social impacts of this option? Effects on the environment- What will be the environmental impacts of this option? Equity- Are risks and benefits distributed fairly e.g. do those responsible for creating the risk pay for its reduction? Individual freedom- Does the option deny any basic rights? Jurisdictional authority- Does this level of organization or government have the authority to apply this option? If not, can higher levels be encouraged to do so? Leverage- Will the treatment options lead to additional benefits in other areas? Objectives- Are organizational objectives advanced by this option? Regulatory- Does the treatment (or lack of treatment) breach any regulatory requirements? Political acceptability- Is it likely to be endorsed by the relevant government authority? Will it be acceptable to communities? Risk creation- Will this treatment introduce new risks? Timing- Will the beneficial effects be realized quickly? Contingency planning
  • 25. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb Key Questions for Risk identification (a) What is the source of each risk? (b) What might happen that could: - increase or decrease the effective achievement of objectives; - make the achievement of the objectives more/ less efficient (financial, people, time); - cause stakeholders to take action that may influence the achievement of objectives. - produce additional benefits? (c) What would the effect on objectives be? (d) When, where, why, how are these risks (both +ve and -ve) likely to occur? (e) Who might be involved or impacted? (f) What controls presently exist to treat this risk? (g) What could cause the control not to have the desired affect on the risk? After reviewing each element, the following general questions should be considered: • What is the reliability of the information? • How confident are we that the list of risks is comprehensive? • Is there a need for additional research into specific risks? • Are the objectives and scope covered adequately? • Have the right people been involved in the risk identification process?
  • 26. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb Key Questions for Risk Analysis a. What current systems may prevent, detect or lower the consequences or likelihoods of undesirable risks or events? b. What current systems may enhance or increase the consequences or likelihoods of opportunities or beneficial events? c. What are the consequences or range of consequences of the risks if they do occur? d. What is the likelihood or range of likelihoods of the risks happening? e. What factors might increase or decrease the likelihoods or the consequences? f. What additional factors may need to be considered and modelled? g. Are there limits of likelihood and consequence beyond which the analysis does not hold true? h. What are the limitations of the analysis and assumptions made? i. How confident are you in your judgement or research specifically in relation to high consequence and low likelihood risks? j. What drives variability, volatility or uncertainty? k. Is the logic behind the analysis methods sound? l. For quantitative analysis, what if any statistical methods may be used to understand the effect of uncertainty and variability?
  • 27. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb
  • 28. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb 11,12. 04.02.14: Ref#20: Kajko-Mattsson, Mira, and Jaana Nyfjord. "State of software risk management practice." LAENG International Journal of Computer Science 35, no. 4 (2008): 1-12. & Ref#19: Risk Management Guidelines Companion to AS/NZS 4360:2004, Standards Australia/Standards New Zealand A. Risk Identification 1 Study relevant historical risk information 1.1 Study the organizational taxonomy of risk types 1.2 Study lessons learnt 1.3 Study other relevant information, if needed 2 Study the domain that is subject to the risk exposure 3 Elicit Risks- personal & past organizational experience, expert judgement, brainstorming, focus group, interview, business/strategic plans, historical records, post event reports, insurance claim/audit reports, what- if and scenario analysis, system design review, flow charting, prototyping, systems analysis (decomposition), critical path analysis, assumption analysis, checklists, system engg. Tech‘s, SWOT, survey/questionnaire, ... 3.1 Identify potential risks For each risk 3.2 Identify risk consequences and effects 3.3 Identify risk sources 3.4 Analyse root cause of risk 3.5 Define risk categories/classes 3.6 Describe and record each identified risk 4 Create risk list 5 Circulate risk list 6 Update risks accordingly 7 Confirm risk list B. Risk Analysis 1 Analyze risks 1.1 Analyse each risk independently For each risk 1.1.1 Study the risk 1.1.2 Assess risk probability 1.1.3 Assess risk impact 1.1.4 Calculate risk exposure 1.1.5 Specify risk severity 1.1.6 Analyse risk – past records, literature, experience, market research, public consultation, experiments, prototype, experts, modelling & simulation, qualitative, quantitative, semi-quantitative techniques, sensitivity analysis// matrices, decision/fault/event tree, influence diagram, life cycle cost analysis, network analysis, modelling/simulation, scenario analysis, test marketing probability/statistical analysis,.. 1.1.7 Specify preliminary risk threshold value 1.1.8 Assign priority to the risk 1.1.9 Record any assumptions made 1.2 Analyse risks in groups 1.2.1 Group risks according to chosen group criteria 1.2.1 Analyze risks in groups 1.3 Consolidate risk prioritization 2 Create top priority risk list 3 Create a list of risks requiring further attention 4 Suggest a preliminary plan for managing the risks 5 Circulate prioritized risk list & prelim. plan among stakeholders 6 Update the prioritized risk list & the prelim. plan, if needed C. Risk Management Planning 1 Study the risk list, the analysis results, and the preliminary plan 2 Determine strategies for managing risks For each risk group 2.1 Determine strategic procedure for managing the risk 2.2 Determine tolerance strategy (threshold value) 2.3 Determine values or events that may trigger contingency actions 3 Create a risk management plan implementing the risk strategies selected For each risk or risk group 3.1 Create control and monitoring plan 3.1.1 Define relevant measures/metrics for monitoring and controlling the risk 3.1.2 Determine performance indicators for measuring action effectiveness 3.1.3 Document the control and monitoring plan 3.2 Create action plan 3.2.1 Define relevant measures for treating the risk 3.2.2 Develop a fallback action plan if preliminary plan does not prove adequate 3.2.3 Document the action plan D. Risk Monitoring and Control 1 Ensure there are procedures to monitor risks 2 Monitor continuously all risks following the plan 2.1 Monitor risk status 2.2 Control the changes in risk status 2.3 Record the risk status 2.4 Take appropriate measures wrt the changed status 2.4.1 Implement the planned risk action, if needed 2.4.2 Implement the contingency plan, if need arises 2.4.3 Implement other actions, if needed 3 Monitor results to determine the
  • 29. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb 3.3 Create contingency plan, if needed 3.3.1 Define relevant contingency actions 3.3.2 Document the contingency plan 3.4 Make schedule for implementing the plans 3.5 Identify constraints 3.6 Estimate efforts 3.7 Estimate resources 3.8 Assign budget 3.9 Assign roles/responsibilities for managing it 4 Combine all plans and put them into the risk management plan 5 Analyze the risk management plan (combined plan) 5.1 Conduct cross-plan analysis with regard to strategies chosen 5.2 Change to the plan according to the results of cross-plan analysis, if needed 6 Prepare risk related contractual agreements 7 Circulate the risk management plan to the stakeholders concerned 8 Update the risk management plan, if needed 9 Confirm risk management plan 10 Update and reconcile the documentation of the risk management plan effectiveness of planned action 4 Seek out to identify new or residual risks 4.1 Report the new risks accordingly 4.2 Start a new instance of the process, if needed 5 Update the risk status and risk list 6 Record and update trends by predefined performance indicators E. Risk Sign –off 1 Approve by formal sign-off 2 Update risk management progress status 3 Eliminate risk from risk list 4 Update risk list F. Risk Post-mortem Analysis 1 Evaluate the risk management process 2 Create/update an organizational risk taxonomy 3 Identify deficiencies and failures of the process 4 Identify positive effects of the process 5 Identify lessons learnt 6 Record the results
  • 30. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb Ref#21: Boehm, Barry W. "Software risk management: principles and practices." Software, IEEE 8, no. 1 (1991): 32-41. Top 10 Risk items Risk Management technique Personnel shortfalls: skill and knowledge levels, staff turnover, team dynamics… Staffing with top talent, job matching, team building, key personnel agreements, cross training Unrealistic schedules and budgets: requirements demand more time/ money... Detailed multisource cost and schedule estimation, design to cost, incremental development, software reuse, requirement scrubbing Developing the wrong functions and properties: complexity, imperfect understanding… Organisational analysis, mission analysis, operations- concept formulation, user survey, user participation, prototyping, early user manual, off nominal performance analysis Developing the wrong user interface: not user-friendly, misleading… Prototyping, scenarios, task analysis, user participation Gold plating: adding unnecessary ―nice‖ features Requirements scrubbing, prototyping, cost benefit analysis, designing to cost Continuing stream of requirements changes: requirement volatility forces rework High change threshold, information hiding, incremental development (deferring changes to later developments) Shortfalls in externally furnished components: hardware or supporting software is inadequate Benchmarking, inspection, reference checking, compatibility analysis Shortfalls in externally performed tasks: subcontractors or users don‘t do what‘s needed Reference checking, pre-award audit, award-fee contracts, competitive design or prototyping, team building Real-time performance shortfalls: some or all of the system causes bottlenecks… Simulation, benchmarking, modelling, prototyping, instrumentation, tuning Straining computer-science capabilities: unstable or unfamiliar technology Technical analysis, cost benefit analysis, prototyping, reference checking
  • 31. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb Ref#22: KEIL, MARK, and PAUL CULE. "Identifying Software Project Risks: An International Delphi Study." Journal of Management 17, no. 4 (2001): 5-36.
  • 32. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb Ref#23: David Johnson; Alexei White; Andre Charland, Chapter 10, Risks and best practices, Enterprise AJAX: Strategies for Building High Performance Web Applications, Prentice Hall, 2007, Technical Risks Relate to the design, development, and maintenance of software, including security, browser capabilities, timeline, cost of development and hardware, skills of the developers, and other things of that nature.  Varied client browsers and operating systems o Richness Vs Reach o Varied browser capabilities – performance differences o Unexpected & costly maintenance because of changes in the browser, which can be exacerbated by hard-to-maintain spaghetti code (code with disorganized and tangled control structures). o Forward-compatibility with new browsers  Third-Party Tools Support and Obsolescence Cultural/Political Risks Focus around the experience of end users, their attitudes and expectations, and how all this relates to software.  Perceived insufficiency of conventional visual cues (or affordances) can actually inhibit usability for less-technologically expert users.  In a consumer-targeted application, switching costs are generally low, and users are poorly motivated to acclimate to a new interface/ workflow  Legal- there have been efforts to sue private corporations with inaccessible web sites under the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), Marketing Risks Relate to successful execution of the business model resulting in sales, donations, brand recognition, new account registrations, and so on.  Search Engine Accessibility  Reach- because of disabled javascript on client browser  Monetization- if hyperlinks trigger an XHR instead of a full page load, the ad does not register an impression, revenue loss for website.
  • 33. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb Ref#24: Luke Welling; Laura Thomson, PHP and MySQL® Web Development, Fourth Edition, Addison-Wesley Professional, 2008, Some important Risks faced by E-commerce companies:  Crackers- malicious computer users  Failure to attract sufficient business  Computer hardware failure  Power, communication, or network failures  Reliance on shipping services  Extensive competition  Software errors  Evolving governmental policies and taxes  System-capacity limits Ref#25: Tom DeMarco and Tim Lister, Waltzing with Bears: Managing Risk on Software Projects, Addison Wesley, 2013  Intrinsic Schedule Flaw (undoable estimates)  Specification Breakdown (stakeholder don‘t agree on what to build)  Scope Creep (additional requirements inflate the initially accepted set)  Personnel Loss  Productivity Variation (assumed <>actual performance)
  • 34. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb Ref#26: Robertson, Suzanne, and James Robertson, Mastering the Requirements Process: Getting Requirements Right. 3rd Edition, Addison-Wesley, 2012. Stakeholders Truths of Requirements 1. Requirements are not really about requirements. 2. If we must build s/w, then it must be optimally valuable for its owner. 3. If your s/w does not have to satisfy a need, then you can build anything. However, if it is meant to satisfy a need, then you have to know what that need is to build the right s/w. 4. There is an important difference between building a piece of s/w and solving a business problem. The former does not necessarily accomplish the latter. 5. The requirements do not have to be written, but they have to become known to the builders. 6. Your customer won‘t always give you the right answer. Sometimes it is impossible for the customer to know what is right, and sometimes he just doesn‘t know what he needs. 7. Requirements do not come about by chance. There needs to be some kind of orderly process for developing them. 8. You can be as iterative as you want, but you still need to understand what the business needs. 9. There is no silver bullet. Methods and tools will not compensate for poor thought and poor workmanship.
  • 35. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb 10. Requirements, if they are to be implemented successfully, must be measurable and testable. 11. You, the business analyst, will change the way the user thinks about his problem, either now or later. Ref#27: Karl E Wiegers; Joy Beatty, Ch 32: Software Requirements and Risk Management, Software Requirements, 3rd Edition, Microsoft Press, 2013 Requirements Elicitation related risks: 1. Product vision and project scope- write a vision and scope document and use it to guide decisions about requirements. 2. Time spent on requirements development -Tight proj. schedules often pressure managers and customers into glossing over the reqs. 3. Customer engagement- Identify stakeholders, customers, and user classes early in the project. Determine who will serve as the literal voice of the user for each user class. Engage key stakeholders as product champions. Make sure product champions fulfill their commitments to help you elicit the correct needs. 4. Completeness and correctness of requirements specifications-Elicit user requirements that map to business requirements to ensure that the solution will deliver what the customers really need. Devise usage scenarios, write tests from the requirements, and have customers define their acceptance criteria. Create prototypes to make the requirements more meaningful for users and to elicit specific feedback from them. Enlist customer representatives to review the requirements and analysis models. 5. Requirements for innovative products -Emphasize market research, build prototypes, and use focus groups to obtain early and frequent customer feedback. 6. Defining nonfunctional requirements- Precisely document nonfunctional requirements, e.g., performance, usability, security, & reliability and their acceptance criteria. 7. Customer agreement on requirements-Determine who the primary customers are. Make sure you‘re relying on the right people for making decisions about requirements. Have appropriate stakeholder representatives review the requirements. 8. Unstated requirements- Use open-ended questions to encourage customers to share more of their thoughts, assumptions, wishes, ideas, information, and concerns than you might otherwise hear. Asking customers what would make them reject the product might reveal some topics that have not yet been explored. 9. Existing product used as the requirements- Reference requirements development might not be deemed important on next-generation or replacement projects. 10. Solutions presented as needs- User-proposed solutions can mask the users‘ actual needs, lead to automating ineffective business processes, and over-constrain the developers‘ design options. 11. Distrust between the business and the development team-effective requirements engineering demands close collaboration among various stakeholders, particularly customer communities and developers.
  • 36. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb Requirements Analysis related risks: 12. Requirements prioritization Ensure that every functional requirement, feature, or user requirement is prioritized and allocated to a specific system release or iteration. 13. Technically difficult features- identify those reqs that might take longer than anticipated to implement. Use status tracking to watch for requirements that are falling behind their implementation schedule. Take corrective action as early as possible. Prototype the novel or risky requirements to select effective approaches. 14. Unfamiliar technologies, methods, languages, tools, or hardware- Don‘t underestimate the learning curve. Identify those high-risk requirements early on, and work with the development team to allow sufficient time for false starts, learning, and experimentation. Requirements specification related risks: 15. Requirements understanding- Different interpretations of the requirements by developers and customers lead to expectation gaps, in which the delivered product fails to satisfy customer needs. Peer review of requirements by developers, testers, and customers can mitigate this risk. Creating models and prototypes that represent the requirements from multiple perspectives can reveal fuzzy, ambiguous requirements. 16. Time pressure to proceed despite open issues It is a good idea to mark areas of the requirements that need further work with TBD (to be determined) or as issues, but it‘s risky to proceed with construction if these haven‘t been resolved. Record who is responsible for closing each open issue and the target date for resolution. 17. Ambiguous terminology Create a glossary to define business and technical terms that might be interpreted differently by different readers. Requirements reviews can help participants reach a common understanding of terms and concepts. 18. Design included in requirements Design elements that are included in the requirements place constraints on the options available to developers. Unnecessary constraints inhibit the creation of optimal designs. Review the requirements to make sure they emphasize what needs to be done to solve the business problem, rather than dictating the solution. Requirements validation related risks: 19. Un-validated requirements- confirm the correctness and quality of each set of requirements before their implementation, Include time and resources for these quality activities in the project plan. Gain commitment from your customer representatives to participate in requirements reviews. Perform incremental, informal reviews to find problems as early and cheaply as possible. 20. Inspection proficiency- Train all team members who will participate in inspections of requirements documents. Invite an experienced consultant to observe your early inspections to coach the participants. Requirements management related risks: 21. Changing requirements documented business requirements and scope definitions as the benchmark for approving changes. Use collaborative elicitation process with extensive user involvement. Design the system for easy modifiability, particularly when you are following an iterative life cycle. 22. Requirements change process Risks related to how requirements changes are handled include not having a defined change process, using ineffective change mechanisms, failing to incorporate valuable changes efficiently, and incorporating
  • 37. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb changes that bypass the process. A requirements change process that includes impact analysis, a change control board, and a tool to support the process is an important starting point. Clear communication of changes to the affected stakeholders is essential. 23. Unimplemented requirements- Requirements tracing helps you avoid overlooking any requirements during design, construction, or testing. 24. Expanding project scope- plan on a phased or incremental delivery life cycle. Implement the top priority functionality in the early releases, and elaborate the system‘s capabilities in later iterations. Ref#28: Karl E Wiegers; Joy Beatty, Ch 15: Risk reduction through prototyping, Software Requirements, 3rd Edition, Microsoft Press, 2013 Prototyping related Risks: 1. Pressure to release the prototype- Stakeholder will see a running throwaway prototype and conclude that the product is nearly completed. 2. Distraction by details - With real-looking prototypes, users become fixated on details about how the user interface will look and operate, it‘s easy for users to forget that they should be primarily concerned with conceptual issues at the requirements stage. Limit the prototype to the displays, functions, and navigation options that will let you clear up uncertain requirements 3. Unrealistic performance expectations- users will infer the expected performance of the final product from the prototype‘s performance 4. Investing excessive effort in prototypes- This can happen when you are prototyping the whole solution rather than only the most uncertain, high-risk, or complex portions. Treat a prototype as an experiment. You‘re testing the hypothesis that the requirements are sufficiently defined and the key human-computer interface and architectural issues are resolved so that design and construction can proceed. Do just enough prototyping to test the hypothesis, answer the questions, and refine the requirements.
  • 38. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb 13. 10.02.14: Taxonomy Based Questions (TBQ) wrt Code and Unit Test (Ref#12: CMU/SEI-93- TR-6, 1993) a. Feasibility: Is the implementation of the design difficult or impossible?] [31] Are any parts of the product implementation not completely defined by the design specification? [32] Are the selected algorithms and designs easy to implement? b. Testing: Are the specified level and time for unit testing adequate? [33] Do you begin unit testing before you verify code with respect to the design? [34] Has sufficient unit testing been specified? [35] Is there sufficient time to perform all the unit testing you think should be done? [36] Will compromises be made regarding unit testing if there are schedule problems? c. Coding/Implementation: Are there any problems with coding and implementation? [37] Are the design specifications in sufficient detail to write the code? [38] Is the design changing while coding is being done? [39] Are there system constraints that make the code difficult to write? -- Timing, Memory, External storage [40] Is the language suitable for producing the software on this program? [41] Are there multiple languages used on the program? (Yes) (41.a) Is there interface compatibility between the code produced by the different compilers? [42] Is the development computer the same as the target computer? (No) (42.a) Are there compiler differences between the two? If developmental hardware is being used [43] Are the hardware specifications adequate to code the software? [44] Are the hardware specifications changing while the code is being written?
  • 39. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb Taxonomy Based Questions (TBQ) (Ref#12: CMU/SEI-93-TR-6, 1993) Integration and Test Engineering Specialties a. Environment: Is the integration and test environment adequate? [45] Will there be sufficient hardware to do adequate integration and testing? [46] Is there any problem with developing realistic scenarios and test data to demonstrate any requirements? - Specified data traffic, Real-time response, Asynchronous event handling, Multi-user interaction [47] Are you able to verify performance in your facility? [48] Does hardware and software instrumentation facilitate testing? (Yes) (48.a) Is it sufficient for all testing? b. Product: Is the interface definition inadequate, facilities inadequate, time insufficient? [49] Will the target hardware be available when needed? [50] Have acceptance criteria been agreed to for all requirements? (Yes) (50.a) Is there a formal agreement? [51] Are the external interfaces defined, documented, and base-lined? [52] Are there any requirements that will be difficult to test? [53] Has sufficient product integration been specified? [54] Has adequate time been allocated for product integration and test? [55] Will vendor data be accepted in verification of requirements allocated to COTS products? (Yes) (55.a) Is the contract clear on that? c. System: System integration uncoordinated, poor interface definition, or inadequate facilities?] [56] Has sufficient system integration been specified? [57] Has adequate time been allocated a. Maintainability: Will the implementation be difficult to understand or maintain? [61] Does the architecture, design, or code create any maintenance difficulties? [62] Are the maintenance people involved early in the design? [63] Is the product documentation adequate for maintenance by an outside organization? b. Reliability: Are the reliability or availability requirements difficult to meet? [64] Are reliability requirements allocated to the software? [65] Are availability requirements allocated to the software? (Yes) (65.a) Are recovery timelines any problem? c. Safety: Are the safety requirements infeasible and not demonstrable? [66] Are safety requirements allocated to the software? (Yes) (66.a) Do you see any difficulty in meeting the safety requirements? [67] Will it be difficult to verify satisfaction of safety requirements? d. Security: Are the security requirements more stringent than the current state of the practice or program experience? [68] Are there unprecedented or state-of-the-art security requirements? [69] Is it an Orange Book system? [70] Have you implemented this level of security before? e. Human Factors: Will the system will be difficult to use because of poor human interface definition? [71] Do you see any difficulty in meeting the Human Factors requirements? (No) (71.a) How are you ensuring that you will meet the human interface requirements? If prototyping (Yes) (71.a.1) Is it a throw-away prototype? (No) (71.a.1a) Are you doing evolutionary development? (Yes) (71.a.1a.1) Are you experienced in this
  • 40. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb for system integration and test? [58] Are all contractors part of the integration team? [59] Will the product be integrated into an existing system? (Yes) (59.a) Is there a parallel cutover period with the existing system? (No) (59.a.1) How will you guarantee the product will work correctly when integrated? [60] Will system integration occur on customer site? type of development? (Yes) (71.a.1a.2) Are interim versions deliverable? (Yes) (71.a.1a.3) Does this complicate change control? f. Specifications: Is the documentation adequate to design, implement, and test the system? [72] Is the software requirements specification adequate to design the system? [73] Are the hardware specifications adequate to design and implement the software? [74] Are the external interface requirements well specified? [75] Are the test specifications adequate to fully test the system? If in or past implementation phase [76] Are the design specifications adequate to implement the system?
  • 41. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb 14,15. 10.02.14: Ref#29: Cebula, James L., and Lisa R. Young. A Taxonomy of Operational Cyber Security Risks. No. CMU/SEI-2010-TN-028. Carnegie-Mellon Univ Pittsburgh Pa Software Engineering Inst, 2010. Sources of Operational Cyber Security Risk to information and technology assets that have consequences affecting the confidentiality, availability, or integrity of information or information systems. 1. Actions of People 1.1 Inadvertent mistake—individual with knowledge of the correct procedure accidentally taking incorrect action error—individual without knowledge of the correct procedure taking incorrect action omission—individual not taking a known correct action often due to hasty performance of a procedure 1.2 Deliberate fraud—a deliberate action taken to benefit oneself or a collaborator at the expense of the organization sabotage—a deliberate action taken to cause a failure in an organizational asset/process, generally carried out by someone possessing or with access to inside knowledge theft—the intentional, unauthorized taking of organizational assets, in particular information assets vandalism—the deliberate damaging of organizational assets, often at random 1.3 Inaction skills—an individual‘s lack of ability to undertake the necessary action knowledge—an individual‘s ignorance of the need for action guidance—a knowledgeable individual lacking the proper guidance or direction to act availability—the unavailability or nonexistence of the appropriate resource needed to carry out the action 2. Systems and Technology Failures 2.1 Hardware capacity—inability to handle a given load or volume of information performance—inability to complete instructions or process information within acceptable parameters (speed, power consumption, heat load, etc.) maintenance—failure to perform required upkeep of the equipment obsolescence—operation of the equipment beyond its supported service life 2.2 Software compatibility—inability of >=2 pieces of s/w to work together as expected configuration management—improper application and management of the appropriate settings and parameters for the intended use change control—changes made to the application or its configuration by a process lacking appropriate authorization, review, and rigor security settings—improper application of security settings, either too relaxed or too restrictive, within the program or application coding practices—failures due to programming errors, including syntax and logic problems and failure to follow secure coding practices testing—inadequate testing of the software application/configuration 2.3 Systems design—improper fitness of the system for the intended application/use specifications—improper/inadequate definition of requirements; failure to adhere to the requirements during system construction integration—failure of various components of
  • 42. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb the system to function together or interface correctly; inadequate testing of the system complexity—large number or interrelationships between components 3. Failed Internal Processes 3.1 Process design or execution process flow—poor design of the movement of process outputs to their intended consumers process documentation—inadequate documentation of the process inputs, outputs, flow, and stakeholders roles and responsibilities—insufficient definition and understanding of process stakeholder roles and responsibilities notifications and alerts—inadequate notification regarding a potential process problem or issue information flow—poor design of the movement of process information to interested parties and stakeholders escalation of issues—the inadequate or nonexistent ability to escalate abnormal or unexpected conditions for action by appropriate personnel service level agreements—the lack of agreement among process stakeholders on service expectations that causes a failure to complete expected actions task hand-off—―dropping the ball‖ due to the inefficient handing off of a task in progress from one responsible party to another 3.2 Process controls status monitoring—failure to review and respond to routine information about the operation of a process metrics—failure to review process measurements over time for the purpose of determining performance trends periodic review—failure to review the end-to- end operation of the process on a periodic basis and make any needed changes process ownership—failure of a process to deliver the expected outcome because of poor definition of its ownership or poor governance practices 4. External Events 4.1 Disasters weather event—adverse weather situations such as rain, snow, tornado, or hurricane fire—disruption caused by a fire within or external to a facility flood—disruption caused by a flood within or external to a facility earthquake—disruption of organizational operations due to an earthquake unrest—disruption of operations due to civil-disorder/riot/terrorism pandemic—widespread medical conditions that disrupt organizational operations 4.2 Legal issues regulatory compliance—new governmental regulation or failure to comply with existing regulation legislation—new legislation that impacts the organization litigation—legal action taken against the organization by any stakeholder, including employees and customers 4.3 Business issues supplier failure—the temporary or permanent inability of a supplier to deliver needed products or services to the organization market conditions—the diminished ability of the organization to sell its products and services in the market economic conditions—the inability of the organization to obtain needed funding for its operations 4.4 Service dependencies utilities—failure of the organization‘s electric power supply, water supply, or telecommunications services emergency services—dependencies on public response services e.g., fire,
  • 43. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb 3.3 Supporting processes staffing—failure to provide appropriate human resources to support its operations funding—failure to provide appropriate financial resources to support its operations training and development—Failure to maintain the appropriate skills within the workforce procurement—failure to provide the proper purchased service and goods necessary to support operations police, and emergency medical services fuel—failure of external fuel supplies, e.g., for a backup generator transportation—failures in external transportation systems, e.g.,, inability of employees to report to work and inability to make and receive deliveries
  • 44. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb Ref#30: Stoneburner, Gary, Alice Goguen, and Alexis Feringa. "Risk Management Guide for Information Technology Systems: Recommendations of the National Institute of Standards and Technology" Computer Security Division, NIST Special Publication 800, no. 30 (2002): 800-30. Integration of Risk Management into the SDLC SDLC Phases Phase Characteristics Support from Risk Management Activities Initiation The need for an IT system is expressed and the purpose and scope of the IT system is documented Identified risks are used to support the development of the system requirements, including security requirements, and a security concept of operations (strategy) Development or Acquisition The IT system is designed, purchased, programmed, developed, or otherwise constructed The risks identified during this phase can be used to support the security analyses of the IT system that may lead to architecture and design tradeoffs during system Development. Implementation The system security features should be configured, enabled, tested, and verified The risk management process supports the assessment of the system implementation against its requirements and within its modelled operational environment. Decisions regarding risks identified must be made prior to system operation Operation or Maintenance The system performs its functions. Typically the system is being modified on an ongoing basis through the addition of hardware and software and by changes to organizational processes, policies, and procedures Risk management activities are performed for periodic system reauthorization (or reaccreditation) or whenever major changes are made to an IT system in its operational, production environment (e.g., new system interfaces) Disposal This phase may involve the disposition of information, hardware, and software. Activities may include moving, archiving, discarding, or destroying information and sanitizing the hardware and software Risk management activities are performed for system components that will be disposed of or replaced to ensure that the hardware and software are properly disposed of, that residual data is appropriately handled, and that system migration is conducted in a secure and systematic manner Sample Interview Questions to be asked during interviews with site personnel to gain an understanding of the operational characteristics of an organization 1. Who are valid users? 2. What is the mission of the user organization? 3. What is the purpose of the system in relation to the mission? 4. How important is the system to the user organization‘s mission? 5. What is the system-availability requirement? 6. What information (both incoming and outgoing) is required by the organization? 7. What information is generated by, consumed by, processed on, stored in, and retrieved by the system? 8. How important is the information to the user organization‘s mission? 9. What are the paths of information flow? 10. What types of information are processed by and stored on the system (e.g., financial, personnel, research and development, medical, command and control)? 11. What is the sensitivity (or classification) level of the information? 12. What information handled by or about the system should not be disclosed and to whom? 13. Where specifically is the information processed and stored?
  • 45. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb 14. What are the types of information storage? 15. What is the potential impact on the organization if the information is disclosed to unauthorized personnel? 16. What are the requirements for information availability and integrity? 17. What is the effect on the organization‘s mission if the system or information is not reliable? 18. How much system downtime can the organization tolerate? How does this downtime compare with the mean repair/recovery time? What other processing or communications options can the user access? 19. Could a system or security malfunction or unavailability result in injury or death? Ref#31: Dey, Prasanta Kumar, Jason Kinch, and Stephen O. Ogunlana. "Managing risk in software development projects: a case study." Industrial Management & Data Systems 107, no. 2 (2007): 284-303. Some questions for risk identification 1. Whether the developed software fulfils the customers‘ demand/requirement? 2. How much competition it is likely to face? 3. Whether benefits from the software surpass the cost of development? 4. Is the project technically feasible? 5. Will hardware, software, and networks function properly? 6. Will the technology be available in time to meet project objectives? 7. Is there any chance of the technology becoming obsolete before use? 8. Will security system work throughout its life?
  • 46. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb Ref#32: Iacovou, Charalambos L., and Robbie Nakatsu. "A risk profile of offshore- outsourced development projects." Communications of the ACM 51, no. 6 (2008): 89- 94. Most important Risk Factor in Offshore-outsourced projects 1. Lack of top management commitment 2. Original set of requirements is mis-communicated 3. Language barriers in project communications 4. Inadequate user involvement 5. Lack of offshore project management know-how by client 6. Failure to manage end user expectations 7. Poor change controls 8. Lack of business know-how by offshore team 9. Lack of required technical know-how by offshore team 10. Failure to consider all costs 11. Telecommunications and infrastructure issues 12. Vendor viability 13. Difficulties in ongoing support and maintenance 14. Low visibility of project process 15. Cross-cultural differences 16. High turnover of vendor employees 17. Constraints due to time-zone differences 18. Lack of continuous, face-to-face interactions across team members 19. Threats to the security of information resources 20. Negative impact on employee morale 21. Unfamiliarity with international and foreign contract law 22. Differences in development methodology/processes 23. Political instability in offshore destinations 24. Negative impact on image of client organization 25.Currency fluctuations Ref#33: Persson, John Stouby, and Lars Mathiassen. "A process for managing risks in distributed teams." Software, IEEE 27, no. 1 (2010): 20-29. Identifying and analyzing distributed-team risks Area Risk factor and risk question Low risk Medium risk High risk Task distri- bution Task uncertainty. Do team members posses the knowledge and capabilities needed? Team members know the task, and it fits well with their capabilities. Team members have reasonable task knowledge, and their capabilities cover most challenges. There are serious gaps in team members‘ task knowledge and required capabili- ties. Task equivocality. Do team members understand the specification of the task? The task is well specified and understood by team members. Most aspects of the specifica- tion are clear, and key team members understand the task. The specification lacks clarity on major points, and many team members have limited task understanding. Task coupling. Is the task divided into distinct subtasks across sites? There is minor need to coor- dinate development work across sites. There is some need to coordi- nate development work across sites. There is major need to coordinate development work across sites. Know- ledge manage- ment Knowledge creation. How is task knowledge created across sites? All sites contribute well to the creation of required task knowledge. Most sites contribute reason- ably well to the creation of required task knowledge. There are major problems related to the creation of required task knowledge. Knowledge capture. How is task knowledge captured across sites? Task knowledge is captured effectively across sites. Task knowledge is, with some exceptions, captured effectively across sites. There are major problems related to capturing task knowledge across sites. Knowledge integration. How is task knowledge integrated and shared across sites? Task knowledge is integrated and shared well across sites. Task knowledge is, with some exceptions, well integrated and shared across sites. There is limited task knowledge integration and sharing across sites. Geog- raphical Spatial distribution. How many sites are involved, and There are few sites collabo- rating over limited distance. There are several sites collaborating over some There are many sites collaborating
  • 47. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb distri- bution what‘s the distance between them? distance. over considerable distance. Temporal distribution. How do time zone differences impact development work? Time zone differences cause no or only minor problems. Time zone differences require some ad hoc coordination across sites. Time zone differences cause major problems and require constant attention across sites. Goal distribution. How diverse are goals across sites? Team members share major goals across sites. There is some variation in goals across sites. There are major goal conflicts across sites. Colla- boration structure Collaboration capability. Can team members collaborate across sites? Team members collaborate across sites as needed. In most cases, team members collaborate across sites as needed. Breakdowns in collaboration across sites are common. Coordination mechanisms. Are coordination mechanisms appropriate across sites? Coordination mechanisms are shared across sites and well adapted to the distributed context. Coordination mechanisms are shared by most team members and reasonably well adapted to the distributed context. Coordination mechanisms are not shared across sites and poorly adapted to the distributed context. Process alignment. Are processes aligned across sites? Processes (including methods, templates, and guidelines) are shared across sites. Processes (incl. methods, templates & guidelines) vary but are reasonably well aligned across sites. Processes (including methods, templates, and guidelines) are different across sites. Cultural distri- bution Language barriers. Do language and communication norms vary across sites? Team members share lan- guage and communication norms across sites. Team members use a common language with minor differences in comm‘ norms. Team members don‘t share a common language and have different comm‘ norms. Work culture. Does work culture differ between sites? Team members share work culture (including authority and team behavior) across sites. Team members understand variations in work culture (including authority and team behavior) across sites. Team members don‘t understand variations in work culture (including authority and team behavior) across sites. Cultural bias. Does cultural bias impact communication and cooperation across sites? There are no major variations in cultural values across sites. Team members communicate and collaborate based on appreciation of cultural variations across sites. Team members lack knowledge of variations in cultural values across sites. Stake- holder relations Stakeholder commitment. Are stakeholders committed to the project? Key stakeholders are com- mitted and share a common project identity across sites. Most stakeholders are com- mitted to the project and know about its distributed organization. Stakeholder commitment varies, and there is no shared project identity. Mutual trust. Is there trust between stakeholders across sites? There is appropriate mutual trust across sites. There are instances of insuf- ficient trust across sites. Stakeholders don‘t trust each other across sites. Relationship building. Can the project integrate stakeholders across sites? Existing and new stake- holders are well integrated across sites. Existing and new stakehold- ers are mostly integrated well across sites. There are several cases of stakeholders not being well integrated. Comm- unication infra- structure Personal communication. What‘s the level of personal communication and social interaction across sites? The level of personal com- munication and social interaction across sites is appropriate. There is some personal communication and social interaction across sites. There is limited personal communication and social interaction across sites.
  • 48. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb Interaction media. How well is communication across sites supported by media? Communication needs across sites are well supported by media. Communication across sites is for many purposes well supported by media. There are severe shortcomings in media support of communication across sites. Teleconference management. How well is teleconferencing managed across sites? Teleconferencing is used appropriately and managed effectively across sites. Teleconferencing is used to some extent across sites and reasonably well managed. There is limited use of teleconferencing across sites and they aren‘t managed well. Techno- logy setup Network capability. Are communication networks reliable? Networks aren‘t causing delays in development work and communication. Networks are causing some delays in development work and communication. Networks are causing serious delays in development work and communication. Tool compatibility. Are tools compatible across sites? There are no compatibility issues between tools across sites. Compatibility issues between tools create some collaboration barriers across sites. Compatibility issues between tools create serious collaboration barriers across sites. Configuration management. How are configurations managed across sites? There‘s appropriate configu- ration management across sites. Configuration management is, with some exceptions, appropriate across sites. There is limited configuration management across sites. Resolution techniques for mitigating distributed team software development risks SWOT analysis (Ref#34: Mindtools.com): Identify the key internal and external factors that are important to achieving the objective Strengths: characteristics of the business or project that give it an advantage over others- What advantages does your organization have? What do you do better than anyone else? What unique or lowest-cost resources can you draw upon that others can't? What do people in your market see as your strengths? What is your organization‘s USP? What factors mean that you "get the sale"? -We are able to respond very quickly as we have no red tape, and no need for higher management approval. -We are able to give really good customer care, as the current small amount of work means we have plenty of time to devote to customers. -Our lead consultant has strong reputation in the market. -We can change direction quickly if we find that our marketing is not working. -We have low overheads, so we can offer good value to Planning 1.Acquire complementary skills 2.Adjust meetings to distributed context 3.Divide tasks systematically between sites 4.Reduce coupling between sites 5.Create shared collaboration platform 6.Establish shared goals 7.Establish communication norms 8.Define roles and responsibilities Control 9. Focus on deliverables 10. Establish task coordination between sites 11. Maintain site autonomy 12. Establish shared control mechanisms 13. Establish temporal coordination mechanisms 14. Maintain project organization overview 15. Maintain task overview within and across sites 16. Monitor and improve communication 17. Maintain a supportive environment 18. Analyze and manage errors Social integration 19. Improve capability to manage cultural differences 20. Improve distributed collaboration skills 21. Improve language skills 22. Emphasize early teambuilding activities 23. Promote humor and openness 24. Use mentors to integrate new members 25. Use face-to-face meetings appropriately 26. Develop liaisons between sites 27. Adopt shared reward systems Technical integration 28. Increase technical compatibility between sites 29. Standardize and train in methods across sites 30. Adopt appropriate communication technologies 31. Improve collaboration and communication technology skills 32. Improve development technology skills 33. Handle differences in methods between sites 34. Combine waterfall model and prototyping
  • 49. Lecture Notes, PSRM-I: Risk Engg. Sanjay Goel, JIIT, 2014, Jan-Feb customers. Weaknesses: characteristics that place the team at a disadvantage relative to others- What could you improve? What should you avoid? What are people in your market likely to see as weaknesses? What factors lose you sales? -Our company has little market presence or reputation. -We have a small staff, with a shallow skills base in many areas. -We are vulnerable to vital staff being sick, and leaving. -Our cash flow will be unreliable in the early stages. Opportunities: elements that the project could exploit to its advantage- What good opportunities can you spot? What interesting trends are you aware of? Useful opportunities can come from such things as:-- Changes in - technology/markets on broad/narrow scale; government policy related to your field; social patterns, population profiles, lifestyle changes; Local events. -Our business sector is expanding, with many future opportunities for success. -Local government wants to encourage local businesses. -Our competitors may be slow to adopt new technologies. Threats: elements in the environment that could cause trouble for the business or project- What obstacles do you face? What are your competitors doing? Are quality standards or specifications for your job, products or services changing? Is changing technology threatening your position? Do you have bad debt or cash-flow problems? Could any of your weaknesses seriously threaten your business? -Developments in technology may change this market beyond our ability to adapt. -A small change in the focus of a large competitor might wipe out any market position we achieve. Ref#35: Manual of Accreditation, National Board of Accreditation, India, 2013, Graduate Attributes UG Engineering 1. Engineering knowledge: Apply the knowledge of mathematics, science, engineering fundamentals, and an engineering specialisation to the solution of complex engineering problems. 2. Problem analysis: Identify, formulate, research literature, and analyse complex engineering problems reaching substantiated conclusions using first principles of mathematics, natural sciences, and engineering sciences. 3. Design/development of solutions: Design solutions for complex engineering problems and design system components or processes that meet the specified needs with appropriate consideration for the public health and safety, and the cultural, societal, and environmental considerations. 4. Conduct investigations of complex problems: Use research-based knowledge and research methods including design of experiments, analysis and interpretation of data, and synthesis of the information to provide valid conclusions. 5. Modern tool usage: Create, select, and apply appropriate techniques, resources, and modern engineering and IT tools including prediction and modelling to complex engineering activities with an understanding of the limitations. 6. The engineer and society: Apply reasoning informed by the contextual knowledge to assess societal, health, safety, legal, and cultural issues and the consequent responsibilities relevant to the professional engineering practice. 7. Environment and sustainability: Understand the impact of the professional engineering solutions in societal and environmental contexts, and demonstrate the knowledge of, and need for sustainable development. 8. Ethics: Apply ethical principles and commit to professional ethics and responsibilities and norms of the engineering practice. 9. Individual and Team work: Function effectively as an individual, and as a member or leader in diverse teams, and in multidisciplinary settings. 10. Communication: Communicate effectively on complex engineering activities with the engineering community and with society at large, such as, being able to comprehend and write effective reports and design documentation, make effective presentations, and give and receive clear instructions.