Overview of Ohio's demographic trends for a panel on the potential of immigrants and refugees in revitalizing legacy city neighborhoods.

1. Alison D. Goebel, PhD
Associate Director
Greater Ohio Policy Center
July 9, 2015

2. ABOUT GREATER OHIO POLICY CENTER
An outcome-oriented
statewide non-profit that
champions revitalization and
sustainable redevelopment in
Ohio:
• Revitalize Ohio’s urban
cores and metropolitan
regions
• Achieve sustainable land
reuse and economic
growth

3. OHIO’S POPULATION GROWTH HAS SLOWED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE 1970S
Exhibit 1-1. Total Population, 1910-2014
14,000,000
12,000,000 11,594,163
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014
Year
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses and 2014 State Total Population Estimates

4. OHIO’S PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH FOR
NEXT 25 YEARS IS MINIMAL
2015-2040: Population growth
Ohio: expected to grow 0.04% per year (bringing state’s
total population to ~11,678,970 by 2040)
• Ohio 2014 population: 11,594,163
• Net gain of ~85,000 residents by 2040
United States: expected to grow 0.69% per year (adding
nearly 60 million people to the populace)
• US 2014 population: 318,857,056

5. THERE HAS BEEN OVERALL POPULATION LOSS IN
OHIO’S LARGE LEGACY CITIES
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Population Change in Ohio Cities, 1970-2013
Population in 1970 Population in 2013
Source: 2009-2013 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

6. CHANGE IN POPULATION FROM 2000 TO 2013
FOR OHIO’S SMALL AND MEDIUM SIZED CITIES
-9.63%
2.74%
-3.77% -6.75% -4.02% -5.70% -2.64% -7.55%
-18.91%
-1.59%
-20.00%
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%

7. IN 2013 RESIDENTIAL VACANCY RATES
EXCEEDED 10% IN OHIO’S MAJOR CITIES
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Source: 2009-2013 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

8. RESIDENTIAL VACANCY RATES EXCEEDED
10% IN OHIO’S MID- AND SMALL-SIZED
CITIES, IN 2013
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
Source: 2009-2013 American Community Survey 5-Year
Estimates

9. OHIO IS AGING; OLDER COUNTIES ARE NOT EXPECTING
YOUNGER COHORTS TO REPLACE AGING RESIDENTS
2015: population age 55+ Projected overall population growth
2015-2040

10. OHIO’S MILLENNIALS (AGES 25-34)
91% of Ohio’s millennials with college degrees live in
the state’s 8 largest metros

11. OHIO IS BECOMING MORE RACIALLY/ETHNICALLY
DIVERSE: THIS IS A GOOD TREND

12. OHIO’S IMMIGRANT POPULATION TRENDS
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Foreign-Born Population Total
2000
2013
Source: 2000 SF3 Sample Data and 2009-2013 ACS 5-Year Estimates

13. OHIO’S FOREIGN-BORN POPULATION
461,339 foreign born
•4.25% of state population
•~50% naturalized; ~50% not US citizen

14. OHIO’S FOREIGN-BORN POPULATION
Largest foreign born population groups in Ohio:
1. Mexican (50,843) 6. British (14,233)
2. Indian (47,150) 7. Korean (12,345)
3. Chinese (28,543) 8. Filipino (13,867)
4. German (17,677) 9. Vietnamese (10,597)
5. Canadian (15,291) 10. Russian (9,856)

15. GOPC’S STATE POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
1. Create a loan program that links small business
lending with neighborhood improvement efforts
2. Develop programming the connects entrepreneurs
with vacant commercial buildings
3. Establish innovative financing programs that support
infrastructure modernization and fund brownfield
redevelopment
4. Increase state funding and federal funds flexed for
transit
5. Implement a statewide Safe Streets policy to ensure
safety of all users and encourage economic
development

16. Alison D. Goebel, PhD
Associate Director
Greater Ohio Policy
Center
agoebel@greaterohio.or
g
@alisongoebelOH
www.greaterohio.org
614-224-0187
@greaterohio