1. Power Plays
Electric Power and the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant
The projected shortage in 2012 can be addressed by building
geothermal, hydro power, natural gas, wind, and solar power
plants even without the operation of the nuclear plant in Bataan if
only government builds the necessary indicative capacity
additions and develop and upgrade exisiting power plants. We
discuss the historical background of the power industry in the
Philippines in relation to the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant and
address the reasons raised by the proposed bill in Congress as
to the need for building the Plant. We further point out the
immediate impact of the proposed bill on electric power rates.
2. Power Shortage?
Quoting figures from the various updates of the
2012 GAP
Philippine Energy Plan from the DOE on their (1495 mw)
website, the projected shortage in 2012 can be
addressed by building geothermal, hydro power,
natural gas, wind, solar and coal plants even
without the operation of the nuclear plant in
Bataan if only government builds the necessary
indicative capacity additions and develop and
upgrade exisiting power plants.
(combined data 2006 PEP Update+Supply Demand Profile, Napocor
+simulation of half growth rates
)
Kayang sagutin ang “kakulangan” sa 2012 kahit
wala ang BNPP kapag itinayo ang mga
geothermal, hydro, natural gas, wind, solar at iba
pang pagkukunan ng enerhiya
3. Gap of 1495 MW from
required capacity and online
dependable capacity.
2012 GAP
(1495 mw)
(combined data 2006 PEP Update+Supply Demand Profile, Napocor
+simulation of half growth rates
9. Where are the plants?
Government has
pursued a policy of
privatization
Has sold or in the
process of selling our
generation plants
Electric Power
Industry Reform Act
(EPIRA)
10. Direct cost to people: nuclear tax
The proposed bill would pass on the cost of the BNPP to ordinary
consumers as a nuclear tax of P 0.10 per kilowatt hour for the total
electric power generated in the country.
According to Section 22 of the Bill
− “SEC. 22. Alternative Sources of Funding. – The State may raise equity through a
surcharge of PhP0.10/kWH of the total electric power generated in the country:
Provided, That such collection of surcharge shall not exceed five (5) years from the
date of its initial imposition. The funds collected shall be reimbursed to the electric
consumers after such time that the BNPP shall commence commercial operations.
The time frame for such reimbursement shall not exceed three (3) years. The State is
also authorized to enter into international or domestic loan agreements to fund the
implementation of this Act: Provided, That the total funds raised from the surcharge
and the loan combined shall not exceed US$1 billion.”
De-facto nuclear tax of
10 centavos per kWh
11. Direct cost to people: nuclear tax
According to figures from the , the total electric power
sales in 2007 is 48,009 GigaWatt hours
(1,000,000,000 or billion watt-hour) or 48,009 million
kilowatt hours.
4 billion pesos per year or 100 M USD per year
For five years, the total would be 20 billion pesos.
For household of 300 kwh per month, you would
have to pay an additional of 30 pesos (no VAT yet)
per month or a total of 1800 pesos for five years.
PhP 20 B for five years =
PhP 1800 per 300 kwh user
(DOE website)
12. More loans and more costs
The remaining 500 Million USD balance from
the projected one billion dollar cost is to be
obtained by entering into international or
domestic loan agreements.
Delays and interest repayments can drive this
higher and become a new burden for the
Filipino people.
Overnight capital cost (2008 $/kW) : 4038 USD
620 MW = 2.5 B USD (excluding interests)
Posibleng mas lalaki pa sa 500 M na paunang
uutangin dahil Www.nei.org
sa interest at iba pang gastos
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf02.htm
A comparative study published in January 2008 for a Connecticut Integrated Resource Plan, USA,
13. Decomissioning costs
• P 15.35 B for 30 years of operation set aside for
decomissioning (0.002 USD/kWh) = 326 M
USD
• Cleanup of Three Mile Island costs: TMI Dec 93
= 975 M USD
• Decommissioning costs in the US: $325 million
per reactor all-up (1998 $), France 480 million
euro (70MW), UK 32 MW power plant 117 M
EUR, 100MW power plant, cost about 90 M
Kulang ang itinatabi para sa decomissioning
14. Waste disposal costs
• P 7.67 B for 30 years of operation set aside for
decomissioning (0.001 USD/kWh) = 163 M
USD
• These costs (decomissioning and waste
disposal) shall be passed on to us by
NAPOCOR or the concerned government
agency
• Total addon cost: 0.003 USD = 0.1413 PHP
Kulang ang itinatabi para sa disposal
15. Total costs to be passed on to us?
NPC either will absorb decomissioning costs or add it to
our generation rate
For a 300 kWh household total for first 5 years
P 20B for five years = P 1800 pesos
P 7.67 B for 30 years disposal cost (first 5 years) = P 847
P 15.35 B for 30 years decomissioning (first 5 years) = P 1696
First five years = Additional of 4343 pesos
Or equivalent to additional 72 pesos per month!
Remaining costs to be collected throughout the lifetime
of the plant: 42 pesos per month
Dagdag na singil ng 72 pesos kada buwan
16. Global Financial Crisis
The projected peak demand for 2012 should be
recomputed to include the effects of the global
economic crisis and recession.
There should be a second look at the growth
projections used in the simulation for the 2012
targets due to the global economic crisis that is
expected to foster GDP growth in 2009 to be only
half or even less than in 2007 which would be
the slowest since at least 2001. We need not rush
and nor make “IMMEDIATE” the reopening the
nuclear plant.
Bagong targets dahil sa krisis: mabagal ang ekonomiya
17. Adjusted
2012 GAP
(165 mw)
(combined data 2006 PEP Update+Supply Demand Profile, Napocor
+simulation of half growth rates
18. Adapted from Fernando Y. Roxas, Why is Napocor Losing So Much Money
in The IPP Experience in the Philippines
Erik J. Woodhouse , Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Center for Environmental Science and Policy , Stanford University
http://pesd.stanford.edu
19. Stable supply = lower rates?
Having a stable or even a
surplus of electricity capacity
does not necessarily
translate to lower energy
costs. In recent years when
we had an energy
oversupply, power rates
have still gone up due to Surplus and yet electricity
one-sided contracts and the prices is around 8.75 pesos per
kWh!! (included are VAT, IPP
pass-on provisions of contract costs, systems losses,
etc; to be included NPC stranded
EPIRA. debts, etc)
(combined data 2006 PEP Update+Supply Demand Profile, Napocor
+simulation of half growth rates)
20. Other sources can also provide
baseload power.
Nuclear plants are said to be able to supply
baseload power as opposed to renewable
energy, which can supply only a fraction of the
energy demand. We need to develop and
expand geothermal to supply baseload capacity
in our energy mix as well as funding and
developing energy-storage solutions that can
compensate for the disadvantages of wind and
solar power.
22. Indicative Geothermal Projects
Geothermal projects of
baseload capacity could be
online by 2014 totals 750 MW
PEP 2006-2014 www.napocor.gov.ph
23. Indicative Geothermal Projects
Geothermal projects of
baseload capacity could be
online by 2014 totals 750 MW
PEP 2006-2014 www.napocor.gov.ph
24. The Malampaya Project
October 2001
Shell as operator (45%),
Chevron (45%), PNOC
(10%)
3.9 trillion cu. ft. (Tcf) of
proven reserves
Estimated 30-40 million
barrels of recoverable oil
deposits (to be bidded
out)
25. Other Alternative Energy Sources
Solar: tropical country
Wind: 7,400- 14,363 MW
(DOST 70,000 MW)
potential
Geothermal: 2nd in world:
1931 MW – 3131 MW
(estimated)
Tidal Power, Wave Energy,
Ocean Thermal Energy,
Fuel Cells and Hydrogen
Technologies
26. Government's grand mega-sale
Expected foreign investments
P177 billion potential investment in the
renewable energy sector for 2004-2013 (60%
of the P295 billion in investments)
EPIRA
IPPs
SPUG
SPEX in Malampaya
45 % Shell, 45 % ChevronTexaco
10% to be sold
27. Philippines rich in energy sources
Nationalization not privatization
Ensure people’s welfare
Strategic planning for sustained
growth
People's control over energy
resources
Build R&D capacity in energy
technologies
