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Bryan Crabb - GW Solar Symposium 2012
1.
2.
© Copyright 2012, First Solar, Inc. 2 Overview Largest utility-scale EPC
and O&M provider in the industry Constructing the three largest PV solar power plants in the world Largest thin-film solar module manufacturer in the world Industries smallest carbon footprint and fastest energy payback 66 million solar modules produced, generating over 5GW of power
3.
© Copyright 2012, First Solar, Inc. 3 Worldwide Presence Ontario, Canada Project
Development Tempe, Arizona Corporate Headquarters Perrysburg, Ohio Operations, R&D, and Manufacturing Bridgewater, New Jersey EPC/ Systems Engineering New York, New York Legal, Project Finance San Francisco Project Development Berlin, Germany Government Affairs Frankfurt (Oder), Germany Manufacturing Kulim, Malaysia Manufacturing Sydney, Australia Sales & Marketing Beijing, China Project Development Washington, D.C. Government Affairs Mesa, Arizona Project Development Cape Town, South Africa Project Development Ontario, Canada Project Development Sacramento, California Government Affairs Brussels, Belgium Government Affairs Paris, France Sales & Marketing Madrid, Spain Sales & Marketing Mainz, Germany Sales, Marketing & Customer Service Rome, Italy Sales & Marketing
4.
© Copyright 2012, First Solar, Inc. 4 Projects in Construction,
2012 (MWdc)
5.
© Copyright 2012, First Solar, Inc. 5 Solar Power Plants
Completed Blythe (NRG) 21MW 2009 Cimarron (Southern) 30MW 2010 Sarnia (Enbridge) 80MW 2010 Copper Mtn (Sempra) 48MW 2010 Tilbury (Enbridge) 5MW 2010 El Dorado (Sempra) 10MW 2008
6.
© Copyright 2012, First Solar, Inc. 6 Solar PV is
Delivering as Promised PV manufacturing costs declined from $5 watt in the 1990s to less $0.75/watt today US Solar installations increased from a few hundred MW in 2000 to over 3,900 MW in 2011 Over 3,000 MW of solar currently under construction in the US with over 40,000MW proposed for development Over 100,000 solar jobs per the 2010 US census Manufacturing, supply-chain and development companies in all 50 states US a net-exporter of solar products Module costs declined by 30% in 2010 and 40% in 2011 – global manufacturing capacity doubled Solar has done more with less: Renewables accounted for 6% ($44 billion) of the $740 billion worth of Federal energy subsidies from 1960-2006 Temporary incentives versus permanent
7.
© Copyright 2012, First Solar, Inc. 7
8.
© Copyright 2012, First Solar, Inc. 8 Crossing Over to
Sustainable Markets Conventional generation based on Lazard LCOE Analysis v 5.0; June 2011. Assumes coal price of $2.50/MMBtu and natural gas price of $5.50/MMBtu. High end of coal and IGCC costs incorporates 90% carbon capture. Fuel sensitivity assumes +/- 25% fuel cost. Nuclear does not reflect decommissioning costs. $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 Gas Peaking Coal IGCC Gas Combined Cycle Nuclear Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/MWh) Conventional, Base Cost Conventional, Fuel Sensitized Cost
9.
© Copyright 2012, First Solar, Inc. 9 1 2 5.2 5.5 15.8 13.6 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2006 2007
2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E Percentage of Historical Max (%) Core Market Installation Capacity (GW), 2006-2011 -- Sustainable? • Sources: EPIA, IREC, IMS Research, equity analysts & FSLR analysis. Germany, France, Spain, Italy, California, & Czech Republic ?
10.
© Copyright 2012, First Solar, Inc. 10 Spain PV Installation
Capacity (GW), 2006-2012 • Sources: EPIA, IMS Research, equity analysts & FSLR analysis. 0.1 0.5 2.7 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E Percentage of Historical Max (%)
11.
© Copyright 2012, First Solar, Inc. 11 Czech Republic PV
Installation Capacity (GW), 2006-2011 • Sources: EPIA, IMS Research, equity analysts & FSLR analysis. ? 0 0 0.1 0.4 1.5 0.1 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E Percentage of Historical Max (%)
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© Copyright 2012, First Solar, Inc. 12 France PV Installation
Capacity (GW), 2006-2012 • Sources: EPIA, IMS Research, equity analysts & FSLR analysis. 0 0 0 0.2 0.7 1.5 0.8 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E Percentage of Historical Max (%)
13.
© Copyright 2012, First Solar, Inc. 13 0 0.1 0.3 0.7 5.6 5.5 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E Percentage of Historical Max (%) Italy PV Installation Capacity (GW), 2006-2011 • Note: 2010 demand shown here includes plants constructed under the Salva Alcoa decree. ?
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© Copyright 2012, First Solar, Inc. 14 0.8 1.3 1.8 3.8 7.4 5.4 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2006 2007 2008
2009 2010 2011E 2012E Percentage of Historical Max (%) German PV Installation Capacity (GW), 2006-2011 • Sources: EPIA, IMS Research, equity analysts & FSLR analysis. ?
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© Copyright 2012, First Solar, Inc. 15 1.3 4.6 1.8 0.6 0.6 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2006 2007
2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E Percentage of Historical Max (%) CA RPS Solar PPAs (By Year of Solicitation*) (GW), 2007-2011 • Source: IOU RPS Projects Status List, November 2011. Note: 2011 Solicitation still in progress. Includes CSP ?
16.
© Copyright 2012, First Solar, Inc. 16 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2006 2007 2008
2009 2010 2011E 2012E Percentage of Historical Max (%) CA DG PV PPAs (GW), 2007-2011 • Source: CPUC, CSI , IOU websites. Incorporates CSI program, RAM program, ?
17.
© Copyright 2012, First Solar, Inc. 17 What Explains the
Pattern? Market initially slow to take off while legislation is translated into an effective program and bureacracy is streamlined Once market begins to function effectively, the incentive programs caused an over-supplied industry to quickly descend to develop project backlogs. The unexpected size and velocity of market expansion combined with high import volumes alarm politicians, who worry about high cost and economic impact Politicians react by sharply reducing the size of the program and in some cases making it less transparent
18.
© Copyright 2012, First Solar, Inc. 18 Will New Subsidized
Markets Turn Out Differently? • Sources: EPIA, IMS Research, equity analysts & FSLR analysis. ? 0 2 4 6 8 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 GW/yr ROE (ex Czech) India Australia ROAPAC USA RO Americas Saudi Arabia Morocco Sub-Saharan Africa Thailand
19.
© Copyright 2012, First Solar, Inc. 19 How do we
get here? (Sonnedix Thai Solar Farm)
20.
© Copyright 2012, First Solar, Inc. 20 PV is even
more suited to non-traditional markets
21.
© Copyright 2012, First Solar, Inc. 21 Is PV Already
at Grid Parity? Retail electricity costs per kWh in US Dollars: Australia: $0.25 Belgium: $0.29 Brazil: $0.34 Chile: $0.23 Denmark: $0.40 Germany: $0.36 Kuwait: less than one cent but… Philippines: $0.30 Tonga: $0.58 India: Varies – net short supply Middle East: Varies - dependent on the price of oil/gas/subsidies
22.
© Copyright 2012, First Solar, Inc. 22 In order to
thrive, the industry must: • Continue to drive down costs to grid parity • Increase efficiency • Create and develop new markets • Improve PV’s impact on the grid as an intermittent resource • Transition away from subsidized markets and subsidy dependence • Develop customer-focused solutions – clean, peaking energy is not enough
23.
© Copyright 2012, First Solar, Inc. 23 Challenges and Questions
for the Industry: • How to price at grid parity levels at scale and without subsidies? • How to accommodate PV into mainstream energy generation mix? • How to ensure priority access to transmission and distribution? • How to promote efficient land planning/permitting approval processes • How to build additional transmission? • How to ensure new and continued support from policymakers, regulators and utilities? • How to support deep robust project financing markets and creditworthy off- takers? • How to transition out of subsidized markets while preserving cash and assuring profitability
24.
© Copyright 2012, First Solar, Inc. 24
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