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Stat310              Fin


                        Hadley Wickham
Sunday, 19 April 2009
1. Assessment
                2. Finish off testing
                3. Majoring in statistics
                4. Stat405
                5. Course feedback



Sunday, 19 April 2009
Gingernut



                Anzac biscuit




                                Peanut brownie

Sunday, 19 April 2009
Assessment
                        Exam 3 and homework 8 graded and
                        available for you to pick up. Model
                        answers available online.
                        One common mistake on exam: writing
                        down joint pdf.
                        Overall grade: no curving.



Sunday, 19 April 2009
Final
                        Take home. Two hours long.
                        Three (double-sided) pages of notes.
                        Available first day of finals week. Due last
                        day. (Study session)
                        Four questions organised around cross-
                        cutting themes (on next slide).



Sunday, 19 April 2009
Common themes
                        Probability of an event.
                        Independence & conditioning.
                        Distributions: pdf/pmf, cdf, mgf, named.
                        Working out mean and variance.
                        Distribution of transformed variable(s).
                        Estimation and testing.

                                                   Philosophy of grading
Sunday, 19 April 2009
Testing example
                        Xi ~ iid Normal(μx, 1)
                        Yi ~ iid Normal(μy, 1)
                        Xs and Ys are independent.


                        Do they have the same means?



Sunday, 19 April 2009
y
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 y                       y
                                                                                                                        y                                                                                                                                                                         y
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 y
   6.5                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     y
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  y
                                                                                                                                                                         yy
                                                                                            y                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          y
                                                                                                                                            y                                                             y
                                                                                                                y
                    y                                                                                                                                                                 y
                                                                                                                                                             y
                                                                       y
                                                      y                                                                                                                                                                                              y                                                                                              y
                                                                                                                    y
                                                                                        y                                           y
                                y        y                                                                                                                                                            y                                                                                                y
                                                                                       y y yy                                                                                                                                                                                                                  yy
                                                              y                                                                                                                                                                yy                                                             y
                           yyy
                        yy                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       yyyy y y
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             yyy
                                                                                                                                                                                                              yy
   6.0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   y
                                                                                                                                                                     y                                             y
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       yy y y y
                            y                                                                                                                                                                 y                                                                                                                        y
                                                                                                                                                         yy                                                                                                                                                    y
                               y                                                                            y                                                                                                    y
                                                                                                                                                                                  y
                                                                  yy                                                                    y                                                                                                                            y
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             y
                                                                                                                                                                                          y
                                                                               y                        y                                                                                                                                                y
                                                                                                                                                yyy                                                                                 yy
                                                                                                                            yy                                                                                                                                                                                                                  y
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   y
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             y
                                              y                                                                                                                                                                                                                          y
                                                                                                                                                                                 y
                                                                                   y
                                                                   x                                                                                                                              x
                                                                                                                                                                                                  y
                                                                                                                                                                                   x
                                                          y
   5.5                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               yxx
                                                                                                                                                                 x
                                                                                        x                                                                                        x                                                                                                                                                         x
                                                              x                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    x
                                                                                                x                                   x                                                                 x
                                                                                                        xx
                                                                                   x                                                                                                                                                                                                                               x
                                                                                                                                                x                                                                                xx
                                                      x                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         x
                                                                                                                            x                                                                                                                    x
                                    xx                                     y
                x                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      x
                                                                                                                                                                                                              x                                                  x           x x xx                                                    x
                                                                                                                                                                             x
                                              x                                                                                                          x                                                                                                                                                                 x
                                                                                            x                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       x
                                                                                                                                                                                          xx
   5.0                                                                                                                  x
                            x                             x                                         x                                                                                                                 xx
                                                                                       xx                                                                                                                                                                                                                      x
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         xx
                                                                                                                                            x                                                                                                                            x
                                                                                                                                                                                  x
                                                                                                                                x
                                x                                                                                                                                                                                              x                                                                  xx
                                                                                                                                                                                                          x                                                          x
                    x                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         x
                                                                                                                                                    xx
                                                                  x xx
                                         xx                                                                 x                                                        x                                            x                                      xx                                                                    x
                        x                                                                                                                                                                                                      xx
                                                                                                                    x                                                                                                                                                              x
                                                                                                                                                             x
                                                                               x
                                    x                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         x        x xx
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     x
   4.5                                                                                                                                  x                                                                                  x                                                                                                               xx
                                                  x                                                                                                                      x

                                                                           20                                                                       40                                                                     60                                                           80                                                     100




Sunday, 19 April 2009
2.0


              1.5
 Difference




              1.0


              0.5


              0.0

                        20   40   60   80   100




Sunday, 19 April 2009
2.0


                1.5
 |Difference|




                1.0


                0.5


                0.0
                        20   40   60   80   100




Sunday, 19 April 2009
4


           3
 z−score




           2


           1


           0
                        20   40   60   80   100




Sunday, 19 April 2009
61 rejected

              0.8


              0.6
 yintercept




              0.4


              0.2


              0.0
                        20   40   60   80      100




Sunday, 19 April 2009
Sunday, 19 April 2009
y
                            x

                                                                                                          y                       x
                                                                                                          x
                                                                   x                                                              y
                                                                                      x
   5.5                                                         y                                                                                               x
                                                                                  y       y                                x
                                                                                                  x
                                                       x                                                                                                                 y
                                                                                                                                                         y
                                                                                                                                                   x
                                yy                                                            y
                                                               x            xyx                       x                                                               xx
                                                                                                                                   xy
                                                                                                                  xx
                        x                                  x                                                                                       y              yy
                                     y    y                                                                                      x
                                                         yyy                                                                           xx
                xx                                                       x
                            y                                                                         y                  xyy xy
                                                                           xx      x                                                    y
                                     xy                                                                                                              x             x
                                                      yx                                     y
                                                                y yx                 x
                                       y
                                 y                          x
                                                    y                         yy                                                              yy
                                                                                                                     yy
                            y x y xy                                                   xx                                                                   xy
                                                                                                                yx
                          yx y                                x                                                                    y
                                                       y
                                               y
                y yy                                                                                                                                                  yx
                                                                                                                                                          xx
                                                      xxx
   5.0                                                                                                                                                    y
                                                                         yyx
                                         x                                                                                 x                     y
                                                              yy x                                                                          y
                                                                                                 x                            yy
                     yx                                                                                          y
                                                                                               yy                                                       x             y
                                       x
                              x                xx
                        x                                        x                                                                        x
                                                                                                                         y                                       yyy
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                 y                                                 y
                                           xy                                                                                                        yx
                                                                                                                       x
                                                                                             x
                                               xy
                   x    y                                             x                                                                       xxx y
                                                                                                                     x
                                     y                                                                                                                               xx
                                                          y                                y
                                                                x x yy y         y
                                yx           x
                          x                                                                                                xy
                                                                                                              x                      x
                                xx y                                                                                                 y                  y      y
                                                                                                                                                               xx
                 x                                                                       y
                                           y                                                                       y
                                     x
   4.5                                                                                 y
                                                                                                                                          yx
                                                                                                                               x
                                                  y                                            x
                                                   y

                                              20                       40                             60                                80                            100




Sunday, 19 April 2009
1.0


               0.5
 sameerence




               0.0


              −0.5



                        20   40    60   80   100




  Can you think of another test-
  statistic based on this plot?
Sunday, 19 April 2009
1.2

                1.0

                0.8
 |sameerence|




                0.6

                0.4

                0.2

                0.0
                        20   40   60   80   100




Sunday, 19 April 2009
2.5

           2.0
 z−score




           1.5

           1.0

           0.5

           0.0
                        20   40   60   80   100




Sunday, 19 April 2009
1 rejected

              0.8


              0.6
 yintercept




              0.4


              0.2


              0.0
                        20   40   60   80          100




Sunday, 19 April 2009
Majoring in statistics
                        I’m one of the undergrad advisors.
                        3 required stat classes (Stat310, Stat405, Stat410)
                        + 6 stat electives
                        + calc, linear algebra, computing
                        Makes for a great double major. Particularly
                        useful if you’re thinking about grad school.
                        (Appealing to employers too)
                        http://statistics.rice.edu/ShowInterior.aspx?id=58


Sunday, 19 April 2009
Stat410

                        Introduction to linear models
                        Powerful and general statistical tool.
                        Theory and data




Sunday, 19 April 2009
Stat405
                        Statistical computing and graphics.
                        Lots of computing and hardly any maths.
                        Past projects: diamond pricing, card
                        counting in blackjack, baseball players
                        over last 100 years, trends in crime
                        http://had.co.nz/stat405


Sunday, 19 April 2009
Electives
                        SOCI 436 (Houston area survey), 313
                        (demography)
                        ECON 340/440 (game theory), 400
                        (econometrics), 475 (optimisation), 477 (math of
                        economics), 479 (modelling)
                        STAT 385, 431 (more theory), 420 (process
                        control), 421 (time series), 422 (Bayesian data
                        analysis), 423 (bioinformatics), 453
                        (biostatistics), 485 (environmental)


Sunday, 19 April 2009
Feedback
                        If you could travel back in time, what advice
                        would you give yourself about this class?
                        How would you describe the class in five
                        words?
                        What one thing could I do to most improve
                        the class?
                        What was your favourite thing about the
                        class?


Sunday, 19 April 2009

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26 Fin

  • 1. Stat310 Fin Hadley Wickham Sunday, 19 April 2009
  • 2. 1. Assessment 2. Finish off testing 3. Majoring in statistics 4. Stat405 5. Course feedback Sunday, 19 April 2009
  • 3. Gingernut Anzac biscuit Peanut brownie Sunday, 19 April 2009
  • 4. Assessment Exam 3 and homework 8 graded and available for you to pick up. Model answers available online. One common mistake on exam: writing down joint pdf. Overall grade: no curving. Sunday, 19 April 2009
  • 5. Final Take home. Two hours long. Three (double-sided) pages of notes. Available first day of finals week. Due last day. (Study session) Four questions organised around cross- cutting themes (on next slide). Sunday, 19 April 2009
  • 6. Common themes Probability of an event. Independence & conditioning. Distributions: pdf/pmf, cdf, mgf, named. Working out mean and variance. Distribution of transformed variable(s). Estimation and testing. Philosophy of grading Sunday, 19 April 2009
  • 7. Testing example Xi ~ iid Normal(μx, 1) Yi ~ iid Normal(μy, 1) Xs and Ys are independent. Do they have the same means? Sunday, 19 April 2009
  • 8. y y y y y y 6.5 y y yy y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y yy yy y yy y yyy yy yyyy y y yyy yy 6.0 y y y yy y y y y y y yy y y y y y yy y y y y y y y yyy yy yy y y y y y y y x x y x y 5.5 x yxx x x x x x x x x x xx x x x xx x x x x xx y x x x x x x xx x x x x x x x xx 5.0 x x x x xx xx x xx x x x x x x xx x x x x xx x xx xx x x x xx x x xx x x x x x x x xx x 4.5 x x xx x x 20 40 60 80 100 Sunday, 19 April 2009
  • 9. 2.0 1.5 Difference 1.0 0.5 0.0 20 40 60 80 100 Sunday, 19 April 2009
  • 10. 2.0 1.5 |Difference| 1.0 0.5 0.0 20 40 60 80 100 Sunday, 19 April 2009
  • 11. 4 3 z−score 2 1 0 20 40 60 80 100 Sunday, 19 April 2009
  • 12. 61 rejected 0.8 0.6 yintercept 0.4 0.2 0.0 20 40 60 80 100 Sunday, 19 April 2009
  • 14. y x y x x x y x 5.5 y x y y x x x y y x yy y x xyx x xx xy xx x x y yy y y x yyy xx xx x y y xyy xy xx x y xy x x yx y y yx x y y x y yy yy yy y x y xy xx xy yx yx y x y y y y yy yx xx xxx 5.0 y yyx x x y yy x y x yy yx y yy x y x x xx x x x y yyy x x x y y xy yx x x xy x y x xxx y x y xx y y x x yy y y yx x x xy x x xx y y y y xx x y y y x 4.5 y yx x y x y 20 40 60 80 100 Sunday, 19 April 2009
  • 15. 1.0 0.5 sameerence 0.0 −0.5 20 40 60 80 100 Can you think of another test- statistic based on this plot? Sunday, 19 April 2009
  • 16. 1.2 1.0 0.8 |sameerence| 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 20 40 60 80 100 Sunday, 19 April 2009
  • 17. 2.5 2.0 z−score 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 20 40 60 80 100 Sunday, 19 April 2009
  • 18. 1 rejected 0.8 0.6 yintercept 0.4 0.2 0.0 20 40 60 80 100 Sunday, 19 April 2009
  • 19. Majoring in statistics I’m one of the undergrad advisors. 3 required stat classes (Stat310, Stat405, Stat410) + 6 stat electives + calc, linear algebra, computing Makes for a great double major. Particularly useful if you’re thinking about grad school. (Appealing to employers too) http://statistics.rice.edu/ShowInterior.aspx?id=58 Sunday, 19 April 2009
  • 20. Stat410 Introduction to linear models Powerful and general statistical tool. Theory and data Sunday, 19 April 2009
  • 21. Stat405 Statistical computing and graphics. Lots of computing and hardly any maths. Past projects: diamond pricing, card counting in blackjack, baseball players over last 100 years, trends in crime http://had.co.nz/stat405 Sunday, 19 April 2009
  • 22. Electives SOCI 436 (Houston area survey), 313 (demography) ECON 340/440 (game theory), 400 (econometrics), 475 (optimisation), 477 (math of economics), 479 (modelling) STAT 385, 431 (more theory), 420 (process control), 421 (time series), 422 (Bayesian data analysis), 423 (bioinformatics), 453 (biostatistics), 485 (environmental) Sunday, 19 April 2009
  • 23. Feedback If you could travel back in time, what advice would you give yourself about this class? How would you describe the class in five words? What one thing could I do to most improve the class? What was your favourite thing about the class? Sunday, 19 April 2009